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素材① BofA 存储周报 (2026-07-02, Simon Woo 团队)

卖方报告 (PDF) · 23 句原文 · 取材 19 句 (83%) · 15 个 claim (逐字 14 / 改写 1) · 灰色 = 未被取材

你的收料 NOTE (🟩 现行管线无容器)
本周的存储周报，看看里面有没有什么有意思的值得 highlights 的观点。

1) Meta's memory chip order cut: Memory chipmakers believe Meta will keep using more actively HBM, LPDDR5, eSSD for its AI data centers. The Street's speculation on "Meta will rent overly invested AI servers" should be groundless. In fact, some AI supply chain companies (NAND controller IC providers, substrate material manufacturers) said Meta's long-term chip/component orders are getting stronger. 2) CXMT's DRAM for iPhone: We do not expect Apple to meaningfully adopt CXMT's DRAM.² Three reasons: (1) US's restriction on China semis, (2) DRAM quality to meet Apple's specs (10Gbps+ speed, 1.1V power consumption, ECC function), (3) DRAM IPs owned by major Korean/US chipmakers (litigations if Apple uses less patented chips).² Apple may try to use CXMT's DRAM to increase bargaining power when it negotiates 2H or 2027 contract prices with Korea/US big-3 DRAM makers, though actual purchasing volume from CXMT remains small.³ 3) Korea cluster: Some investors said the Korea government-led new memory fab cluster construction spending W800tn signals a peak of memory cycle.⁴ However, we do not expect meaningful chip production volumes by 2033.⁴ It is a long-term plan (2026-35).⁴ We don't see yet any capex-driven memory cycle peak, given strong/diversified enterprise chip demand.⁴ 4) Japan trip: investors broadly bullish on memory but frequently asked potential downturn. Corporate management provided more bullish guidance: (1) upbeat 2Q ASP particularly NAND, (2) still rising trend of 3Q/4Q ASP vs 2Q, (3) 2027 shortage (DRAM, NAND), (4) rising LTA (but still volume-centric), (5) disciplined capex and chip production volume (mainly Japan NAND).⁵ 5) Samsung 2Q preliminary OP (due 7 July) likely slightly lower than bullish consensus due to special bonus and smartphone margin squeeze.⁶ Memory-only OP can exceed consensus due to upbeat ASP.⁶ DRAM spot/contract price rebounded further in June.⁷ 6) Data: Korea semis exports Jun US$44.8bn, +21% MoM, more than 3x higher than 2025-average US$14bn;⁸ YoY +199% in Jun, six consecutive months of triple-digit growth.⁸ TrendForce revised up 3Q26 DRAM ASP forecast to 13-18% QoQ vs previous 3-8%.⁹¹¹ TrendForce revised down 2Q26 NAND ASP to 55-60% QoQ (from 70-75%), while raising 4Q26 outlook to 10-15% QoQ.¹⁰¹¹ BofA DRAM ASP projected +53%/+17%/+7% QoQ across 2Q-4Q26.¹² Hyperscale capex: Amazon/Microsoft/Alphabet/Meta ~80% YoY in 2026 to reach ~US$0.7tn; near-US$1tn annual capex expected in 2027-28E; no capex cut in 2027.¹³ Spot: 16Gb DDR5 $46.8 flat WoW +27% QoQ +671% YoY;¹⁴ NAND 1Tb wafer $24.4 -10% QoQ +381% YoY.¹⁵

1 ▲ Meta — AI芯片/存储订单 ✓ 逐字取材 (span 可定位原文)

Meta长期AI芯片/组件订单正在增强, 而非传闻中的削减

🔪 取材原句: Some AI supply chain companies (NAND controller IC providers, substrate material manufacturers) said Meta's long-term chip/component orders are getting stronger.

推理链: 供应链厂商证实Meta长期订单走强, 故反驳Street关于Meta将出租过度投资AI服务器的猜测无依据

2 ▼ CXMT — DRAM被iPhone采用可能性 ✓ 逐字取材 (span 可定位原文)

Apple不会大规模采用CXMT的DRAM, 原因包括美国限制、中国DRAM品质问题、IP诉讼风险

🔪 取材原句: We do not expect Apple to meaningfully adopt CXMT's DRAM. Three reasons: (1) US's restriction on China semis, (2) DRAM quality to meet Apple's specs (10Gbps+ speed, 1.1V

3 ◆ Apple — 采购策略 ✓ 逐字取材 (span 可定位原文)

Apple可能利用CXMT的DRAM作为议价筹码, 在与韩国/美国DRAM三巨头的2H或2027合约价格谈判中压价, 但实际采购量仍然很小

🔪 取材原句: Apple may try to use CXMT's DRAM to increase bargaining power when it negotiates 2H or 2027 contract prices with Korea/US big-3 DRAM makers, though actual purchasing volu

4 ▲ DRAM — 周期见顶可能性 ✓ 逐字取材 (span 可定位原文)

韩国政府主导的新内存晶圆厂集群建设支出W800tn并非周期见顶信号, 因2033年前不会产生有意义的芯片产量, 且企业芯片需求强劲多元化

🔪 取材原句: Some investors said the Korea government-led new memory fab cluster construction spending W800tn signals a peak of memory cycle. However, we do not expect meaningful chip

5 ▲ NAND — ASP趋势 2Q ASP乐观, 3Q/4Q ASP仍呈上升趋势 ✓ 逐字取材 (span 可定位原文)

日本公司管理层指引: 2Q ASP特别是NAND乐观, 3Q/4Q ASP仍呈上升趋势且高于2Q, 2027年DRAM和NAND短缺

🔪 取材原句: upbeat 2Q ASP particularly NAND, (2) still rising trend of 3Q/4Q ASP vs 2Q, (3) 2027 shortage (DRAM, NAND)

推理链: 管理层提供更为看涨的指引: 2Q ASP尤其NAND乐观, 且3Q/4Q ASP仍较2Q上升, 叠加2027年DRAM和NAND短缺预期

6 ◆ Samsung Electronics — 2Q26初步营业利润可能略低于看涨共识 ✓ 逐字取材 (span 可定位原文)

Samsung 2Q26初步营业利润可能略低于看涨共识, 因特别奖金和智能手机利润率挤压; 但内存业务OP可超共识

🔪 取材原句: Samsung 2Q preliminary OP (due 7 July) likely slightly lower than bullish consensus due to special bonus and smartphone margin squeeze. Memory-only OP can exceed consensu

7 ▲ DRAM — DRAM现货/合约价格 6月进一步反弹 ✓ 逐字取材 (span 可定位原文)

DRAM现货/合约价格6月进一步反弹

🔪 取材原句: DRAM spot/contract price rebounded further in June.

8 ▲ 韩国半导体出口 — 出口数据 6月US$44.8bn, +21% MoM, +199% YoY, 连续6个月三位数增长 ✓ 逐字取材 (span 可定位原文)

韩国半导体出口6月US$44.8bn, 环比+21%, 同比+199%, 连续6个月三位数增长

🔪 取材原句: Korea semis exports Jun US$44.8bn, +21% MoM, more than 3x higher than 2025-average US$14bn; YoY +199% in Jun, six consecutive months of triple-digit growth.

9 ▲ DRAM — ASP预测上调 3Q26 QoQ 13-18%, 此前3-8% ✓ 逐字取材 (span 可定位原文)

TrendForce上调3Q26 DRAM ASP预测至环比13-18%, 此前3-8%

🔪 取材原句: TrendForce revised up 3Q26 DRAM ASP forecast to 13-18% QoQ vs previous 3-8%.

10 ▼ NAND — ASP预测下修 2Q26 QoQ 55-60%, 此前70-75% ✓ 逐字取材 (span 可定位原文)

TrendForce下修2Q26 NAND ASP预测至环比55-60%, 此前70-75%

🔪 取材原句: TrendForce revised down 2Q26 NAND ASP to 55-60% QoQ (from 70-75%)

11 ▲ NAND — ASP预测上调 4Q26 QoQ 10-15% ✗ 改写 (span 无法在原文逐字定位)

TrendForce上调4Q26 NAND ASP预测至环比10-15%

🔪 取材原句: TrendForce ... while raising 4Q26 outlook to 10-15% QoQ.

12 ▲ DRAM — ASP预测 2Q26 +53%, 3Q26 +17%, 4Q26 +7% (QoQ) ✓ 逐字取材 (span 可定位原文)

BofA预测DRAM ASP 2Q26环比+53%, 3Q26环比+17%, 4Q26环比+7%

🔪 取材原句: BofA DRAM ASP projected +53%/+17%/+7% QoQ across 2Q-4Q26.

13 ▲ 超大规模数据中心 — 资本开支预测 2026年约US$0.7tn (Amazon/Microsoft/Alphabet/Meta合计同比约+80%); 20 ✓ 逐字取材 (span 可定位原文)

Amazon/Microsoft/Alphabet/Meta 2026年资本开支合计约US$0.7tn, 同比增长约80%; 2027-28E年化资本开支近US$1tn, 2027年无削减

🔪 取材原句: Hyperscale capex: Amazon/Microsoft/Alphabet/Meta ~80% YoY in 2026 to reach ~US$0.7tn; near-US$1tn annual capex expected in 2027-28E; no capex cut in 2027.

14 ▲ 16Gb DDR5 — 现货价格 $46.8, WoW持平, QoQ +27%, YoY +671% ✓ 逐字取材 (span 可定位原文)

16Gb DDR5现货价格$46.8, 周环比持平, 季度环比+27%, 同比+671%

🔪 取材原句: Spot: 16Gb DDR5 $46.8 flat WoW +27% QoQ +671% YoY;

15 ▼ NAND (1Tb wafer) — 现货价格 $24.4, QoQ -10%, YoY +381% ✓ 逐字取材 (span 可定位原文)

NAND 1Tb晶圆现货价格$24.4, 季度环比-10%, 同比+381%

🔪 取材原句: NAND 1Tb wafer $24.4 -10% QoQ +381% YoY

素材② ADI 交期信 (Jukan @jukan05 转发, 2026-07-03)

推文 + 公司一手客户信 · 6 句原文 · 取材 6 句 (100%) · 5 个 claim (逐字 4 / 改写 1) · 灰色 = 未被取材

你的收料 NOTE (🟩 现行管线无容器)
又一个涨价信息。

Tweet by Jukan @jukan05: "Analog semiconductor lead times are now up to six months!!"¹ Attached ADI customer letter (July 3rd 2026, Jim Mollica, VP Sales Operations & Finance): the ongoing tightening of semiconductor supply driven by a broad-based increase in demand.²³ This tightening is now impacting a portion of ADI's product portfolio, with lead times extending to up to six months.² We ask that you place orders with your preferred channel partner at least six months in advance, extending your backlog coverage accordingly.⁴ Customers who extend their backlog coverage early will be best positioned to secure supply and avoid disruption.⁴ Delays may result in longer fulfillment timelines as demand continues to outpace near-term supply.⁵

1 ▲ Analog Semiconductor — 交货周期 up to 6 months ✓ 逐字取材 (span 可定位原文)

模拟半导体交货周期已拉长到 6 个月

🔪 取材原句: Analog semiconductor lead times are now up to six months!!

2 ▲ ADI — 客户信函内容 ✓ 逐字取材 (span 可定位原文)

ADI VP Sales 向客户发出信函，指出因需求广泛增长，半导体供应持续收紧，部分产品交货周期拉至最长 6 个月，要求客户提前 6 个月下单以锁定产能

🔪 取材原句: the ongoing tightening of semiconductor supply driven by a broad-based increase in demand. This tightening is now impacting a portion of ADI's product portfolio, with lea

3 ▲ ADI — 需求状态 ✓ 逐字取材 (span 可定位原文)

ADI 面临广泛的需求增长导致供应收紧

🔪 取材原句: the ongoing tightening of semiconductor supply driven by a broad-based increase in demand.

4 ◆ ADI — 供应约束政策 ✗ 改写 (span 无法在原文逐字定位)

ADI 要求客户提前 6 个月下单，并表示早锁定产能的客户将优先获得供应保障

🔪 取材原句: We ask that you place orders with your preferred channel partner at least six months in advance... Customers who extend their backlog coverage early will be best position

5 ▼ ADI — 交付风险 ✓ 逐字取材 (span 可定位原文)

ADI 警告若客户不及时下单，交付将因需求持续超出短期供给而延迟

🔪 取材原句: Delays may result in longer fulfillment timelines as demand continues to outpace near-term supply.

素材③ Peter Gostev 推文 (2026-07-03, 91.5万浏览)

推文 · 2 句原文 · 取材 0 句 (0%) · 0 个 claim (逐字 0 / 改写 0) · 灰色 = 未被取材

你的收料 NOTE (🟩 现行管线无容器)
很多人对 ai 的理解是有一个很大的偏差的，因为用 codex 的人是少数。ai 的普及率影响了很多普通投资者对于 ai 的看法。

We are now in a position where a tiny proportion of the population uses Fable or soon GPT-5.6, while everyone else's experience of AI is 8-30b-model level - Google's AI Overviews, Meta AI, ChatGPT free tier, maybe MS Copilot at best. People outside of tech must be completely baffled how this is supposed to take their job, and annoyed that hundreds of billions are being poured into it.