数据新鲜度群聊 07-03 ✓卖方 07-01 ✓Wrap 06-30 ⚠X 06-30 ⚠页面生成 07-04
MU 发生了什么 · 大家怎么看 · 截至 2026-07-02 周四
蓝块=事实原文 · 黄块=AI 归纳 (每条可点回原文, 依据强弱是程序算的)
2026-06-21 · 财报 $41.5bn
- The signed agreements cover roughly 20% of Micron's DRAM — NuttyCLD ◆5 06-24
- FQ3 revenue was $41.456B, +74% q/q and +346% y/y — TheValueist ◆5 06-24
- $MU SEES 4Q ADJ. REV. $49B TO $51B, EST. $43.24B — wallstengine ◆4 06-24
大家怎么看
- 群聊 「If memory price becomes a politically involved issue, USG starts to pressure memory producers into production expansion …」 06-27
- 卖方 ▲21▼0 · 「when Vivek upgraded MU back in mid-December 2025 he spoke about “$40 EPS POWER”」 — BofA Brian Fenske 06-24
- Wrap ▲3▼0 · 「MU CY 2027: $175-$200 (buyside bogey)」 — buyside 06-22
- X ▲404▼86 · 「Forecasting ... ~86% gross margins in 4Q」 — EdLudlow 06-24
2026-06-15 · 事件 lowest point
- Consensus for FY27 is $113 and FY28 is $115 — BofA Brian Fenske ◆4 06-16
- Stock has 5x'd since Vivek upgrade on 12/18/25 — BofA Brian Fenske ◆4 06-16
- MU LO Rel wght vs SPX is currently around 0.90x. — BofA Brian Fenske ◆4 06-16
大家怎么看
- 卖方 ▲10▼0 · 「Micron Setup & Expectations into Results 6/24」 — BofA Brian Fenske 06-21
- Wrap ▲12▼0 · 「MU CY 2027: $175-$200 (buyside bogey)」 — buyside 06-22
- X ▲1▼3 · 「Micron's revenue is expected to peak at 253,800 US$B with its highest gross margin at 87.8%.」 — pequityresearch 06-22
2026-06-07 · 事件 +20% (quiet move, one afternoon)
- Memory names strong with MU +6.5% — Bloomberg/Reuters ◆4 06-08
- Remember MU's quiet +20% move one afternoon recently. — BofA Brian Fenske ◆4 06-07
大家怎么看
解读要点- 买方押注CY27 $160+ vs UBS算2029 EPS过$100=估值仍低于10x,多头认为便宜[5][6][4] 依据·中
- 卖方集体上修:Wolfe调FY26/27 DRAM/HBM定价[3],Wells Fargo PT翻倍+$1220→FY28 EPS $135[9][10][11] 依据·中
- 摩根士丹利看多:砍rack DRAM=短缺非需求弱[7],无人反驳 依据·弱
- 卖方 「I'm old enough to remember him catching flack for his MU upgrade back when EPS power was $40+ for bulls.」 — BofA Brian Fenske 06-12
- Wrap ▲16▼0 · 「Wolfe raised its FY26/FY27 estimates for MU, driven primarily by higher DRAM pricing in FY26 and higher HBM pricing in F…」 — Wolfe 06-11
2026-05-26 · 事件 ~10x
- 高盛: despite MU being up 21% on the day, the forward P/E multiple is approaching only ~10x consensus — because earnings have also risen roughly 10x over the same… ◆4 05-26
- Arcuri 将 MU 目标价上调至 $1625 ◆4 05-26
大家怎么看
解读要点- 卖方给P/E对标NVDA → 多头认为10x仍便宜，无人反驳[1][5] 依据·中
- 空头咬住LTA占比<15%且含浮动结构 → 不能逆转周期，群友分歧[3] 依据·弱
- 多头喊25x×25年利润 vs 空头警告无视倍数=爆仓，推特两派对立[11][12] 依据·弱
- 群聊 ▲5▼4 · 「Arun Dhar: LTAs being a semi-permanent panacea (which are < 15% of contracts signed and _all_ of them, according to Joe …」 05-26
- 卖方 「XYZ MU ...」 — MS Tom Wigg 06-02
一直在吵的 (不挂单一事件的常设论战)
- 当前周期能否突破历史？ — ▲298 v ▼54
- EPS能达到多高？ — ▲350 v ▼37
- HBM定价能否持续驱动？ — ▲119 v ▼35
- MU应享有更高估值倍数？ — ▲126 v ▼22