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as of 2026-07-02 · 纯程序化, 由 ledger 直接回答 · 4 个视角

🔄 本周 stance 翻转 (93) — 谁改主意了

OpenAI bullish → bearish
历史 109 条 bullish · 近 7 天 87 条 bearish
「OpenAI delays」— MS Tom Wigg
「Not a good inference design. Lowe expectations.」— BenBajarin
GPT-5.6 bearish → bullish
历史 3 条 bearish · 近 7 天 13 条 bullish
「try 5.6 - it's "claude-level" on visuals and diagrams - almost feels distilled」— garthbench
「Terra matches GPT 5.5 at half the price」— mweinbach
SMCI bullish → bearish
历史 15 条 bullish · 近 7 天 12 条 bearish
「SUPER MICRO $SMCI OFFICE REPORTEDLY RAIDED IN TAIWAN CHIP SMUGGLING PROBE」— faststocknewss
「SUPER MICRO $SMCI OFFICE RAIDED AS TAIWAN EXPANDS CHIP SMUGGLING PROBE」— wallstengine
AI模型 bearish → bullish
历史 1 条 bearish · 近 7 天 11 条 bullish
「but a good sign of intelligence」— boneGPT
「we are on an exponential」— emollick
Claude bullish → bearish
历史 23 条 bullish · 近 7 天 9 条 bearish
「claude was distilled chatgpt」— tensecorrection
「yeah if we go by the moral "china never thinks/take risks only steals" definition of "distillation" rather tha」— tensecorrection
AVAV bearish → bullish
历史 1 条 bearish · 近 7 天 9 条 bullish
「$AVAV and $NKE are both heavily beaten-down names, so those are the interesting ones.」— wallstengine
「Revenue $642M vs Est. $559M」— StockSavvyShay
Fed bullish → bearish
历史 19 条 bullish · 近 7 天 8 条 bearish
「More economists are forecasting Fed rate hikes than cuts for the first time since 2023」— financialjuice
「If unemployment drops below 4% or inflation stays elevated, rate hikes could return」— DeItaone
Elon Musk bearish → bullish
历史 7 条 bearish · 近 7 天 8 条 bullish
「Mega-bullish commentary from Elon on the "insane" supply/demand in memory」— compound248
「Elon telling you to get fucking long semicap」— PythiaR
Doubao bullish → bearish
历史 2 条 bullish · 近 7 天 7 条 bearish
「Running Doubao reportedly costs more than operating all of Bilibili.」— poezhao0605
「Doubao's total daily user time is less than one-eighth of Bilibili's.」— poezhao0605
ORCL bullish → bearish
历史 128 条 bullish · 近 7 天 6 条 bearish
「BofA ORCL US Equity Cumulative Net Flow and Price (USD) (24 Months) shows cumulative net flow turning sharply 」— BofA Brian Fenske
「BofA ORCL US Equity Cumulative Net Flow and Price (USD) (24 Months) shows price dropping from a peak near 320 」— BofA Brian Fenske
Waymo bearish → bullish
历史 3 条 bearish · 近 7 天 6 条 bullish
「We modestly reduce our near-term Waymo estimates for vehicles, rides, and miles, while leaving our out-year tr」— JPM
「Waymo vehicles growing to ~50,000 by YE30 (76% CAGR)」— JPM
Opus 4.8 bearish → bullish
历史 5 条 bearish · 近 7 天 6 条 bullish
「opus actually does p good at long horizon / broad context reasoning a little better imo」— lyc_aon
「opus is better at frontend」— nisten
Fable 5 bullish → bearish
历史 3 条 bullish · 近 7 天 6 条 bearish
「with Fable 5, we’ve likely already entered an era where simple distillation won’t be enough」— Daaamn
「I don’t think we will ever regain access to Fable 5 in the way we once had it.」— kimmonismus
Mythos bullish → bearish
历史 3 条 bullish · 近 7 天 6 条 bearish
「government restrictions on Mythos and GPT-5.6 are a direct response to the growing threat of frontier model di」— mreiffy
「if Mythos is a danger and so powerful why do they need a human to do rule of law work」— Orwelian84
Codex bearish → bullish
历史 3 条 bearish · 近 7 天 6 条 bullish
「interesting that for non-Engineering, this chart inflects exactly on Codex app release」— menhguin
「switching to a different model makes a dramatic difference for the best. Codex just did a huge refactor in 10 」— pastaraspberry
US AI regulation bullish → bearish
历史 1 条 bullish · 近 7 天 6 条 bearish
「But now, with a single swipe of the pen, export controls have shown us the way. No one reasonably thinks this 」— levie
「In practice it means that models at higher capability levels will have to be thoroughly vetted and tested by t」— levie
Uber bullish → bearish
历史 52 条 bullish · 近 7 天 5 条 bearish
「Had to nudge it down another notch on the LO axis as they are increasingly frustrated by any lack of demonstra」— JPM
「Uber expands the list of criminal convictions that disqualify US drivers and expands the background-check time」— Techmeme
Alibaba bullish → bearish
历史 13 条 bullish · 近 7 天 5 条 bearish
「Alibaba sentiment has turned recently given macro concerns and cloud competition from Bytedance and telecom op」— BofA Brian Fenske
「Alibaba executed the largest known distillation attack on Claude to date, generating 28.8 million exchanges」— PeterBerezinBCA
Chinese AI models bullish → bearish
历史 2 条 bullish · 近 7 天 5 条 bearish
「If we theoretically never release Fable 5 and GPT 5.6 then yes, Chinese models will be meaningfully slowed dow」— gfodor
「the good chinese models are suspiciously american-shaped ;)」— tensecorrection
Trump administration bullish → bearish
历史 7 条 bullish · 近 7 天 5 条 bearish
「US President Trump's administration asked OpenAI to restrict the launch of its next model, GPT-5.6, to only a 」— zerohedge
「我觉得特朗普政府宁愿要求sk/三星扩产也不会允许苹果采购长鑫的存储」— Illidan72169952

⏳ 30 天内到期的 forecast (3) — 即将被判卷

OpenAI · 到期 ~2026-07-28
「ETA for wider launch is the 2nd week of July」
twitter · synthwavedd · 说于 2026-06-25
MU · 到期 ~2026-07-28
「월말·월초를 지나고 난 뒤, 이격도 측면에서도 7월 상순 이후쯤 단기 과열 부담이 완화될 수 있습니다.」
twitter · DrNHJ · 说于 2026-06-29
Fable · 到期 ~2026-07-28
「US citizens are going to be able to access ... Fable by the end of July」
twitter · gfodor · 说于 2026-06-26

⚔️ 跨源分歧最大 (48) — 群 vs 卖方 vs 推特

ZS Δ 1.0
newsletter 100% 多 (8 takes) vs sellside 0% 多 (3 takes)
NET Δ 0.93
newsletter 93% 多 (15 takes) vs chat 0% 多 (4 takes)
TSLA Δ 0.9
newsletter 90% 多 (20 takes) vs chat 0% 多 (3 takes)
NOW Δ 0.89
newsletter 100% 多 (7 takes) vs chat 11% 多 (9 takes)
ACN Δ 0.86
twitter 86% 多 (7 takes) vs sellside 0% 多 (3 takes)
软件板块 Δ 0.85
newsletter 100% 多 (4 takes) vs chat 15% 多 (13 takes)
ADYEN Δ 0.83
sellside 83% 多 (6 takes) vs newsletter 0% 多 (4 takes)
ChatGPT Δ 0.82
sellside 82% 多 (11 takes) vs chat 0% 多 (3 takes)
ON Δ 0.8
newsletter 100% 多 (6 takes) vs twitter 20% 多 (5 takes)
韩国 Δ 0.8
twitter 80% 多 (5 takes) vs sellside 0% 多 (3 takes)
ORCL Δ 0.75
sellside 86% 多 (83 takes) vs twitter 11% 多 (19 takes)
TTWO Δ 0.75
sellside 100% 多 (13 takes) vs chat 25% 多 (4 takes)
Netflix Δ 0.75
sellside 100% 多 (4 takes) vs twitter 25% 多 (4 takes)
Oracle Δ 0.7
sellside 100% 多 (5 takes) vs twitter 30% 多 (10 takes)
CRM Δ 0.68
newsletter 93% 多 (15 takes) vs sellside 25% 多 (12 takes)
PLTR Δ 0.67
newsletter 100% 多 (7 takes) vs chat 33% 多 (9 takes)
MDB Δ 0.67
newsletter 100% 多 (5 takes) vs chat 33% 多 (3 takes)
TWLO Δ 0.67
twitter 100% 多 (7 takes) vs chat 33% 多 (3 takes)
PSTG Δ 0.67
newsletter 100% 多 (5 takes) vs chat 33% 多 (3 takes)
Dell Δ 0.62
newsletter 100% 多 (5 takes) vs twitter 38% 多 (26 takes)

🌱 本周新叙事 (30) — topic 首次出现

机器人硬件 · 本周 26 次 · 首见 2026-06-26
「传感器与感知 → $OUST」(OUST)
硬件需求 · 本周 10 次 · 首见 2026-06-26
「FP4 still needs datacenter VRAM; no 4090/5090 loads it.」(NVDA)
净买入排名 · 本周 9 次 · 首见 2026-06-28
「$SOXL 반도체 3배 레버리지 ETF」(SOXL)
地缘协议 · 本周 8 次 · 首见 2026-06-26
「Iran: Strait of Hormuz shipping will be governed by the terms of the war-end memorandum with Oman」(Iran)
功率电子 · 本周 8 次 · 首见 2026-06-26
「功率电子 → $NVTS」(NVTS)
模型访问限制 · 本周 8 次 · 首见 2026-06-26
「all models above Opus will be reserved for our Top 50 enterprise customers with Government approval.」(Anthropic)
行业历史 · 本周 8 次 · 首见 2026-06-27
「Weekend reading suggestions for new commodity investors that don’t yet know they are commodity investors. Stud」(DRAM industry)
个股涨跌 · 本周 7 次 · 首见 2026-06-26
「Apple +0.5%」(Apple)
价格操纵 · 本周 7 次 · 首见 2026-06-26
「All "bottleneck" companies now realize they can pull a "memory" and aggressively hike prices (capacitors are u」(hyperscalers)
移民贡献 · 本周 7 次 · 首见 2026-06-26
「Blue jeans came from Levi Strauss of Bavaria」(Levi Strauss)
持仓分类 · 本周 7 次 · 首见 2026-06-27
「피지컬 ai - $TSLA」(TSLA)
协议执行 · 本周 7 次 · 首见 2026-06-27
「German Foreign Minister: We support the implementation of the agreement between Israel and Lebanon」(德国外长)
能力增长形态 · 本周 7 次 · 首见 2026-06-27
「people who know that we are on an exponential and those whose mental model is that we are at a sort of steady 」(AI模型)
训练框架 · 本周 7 次 · 首见 2026-06-29
「Each time i look at some open pretrain codebase, and i look under the hood, it ends up being a fork of megatro」(open pretrain codebase)
看多观点 · 本周 6 次 · 首见 2026-06-30
「I'm reiterating my bullish view on AMZN, GOOGL, and ORCL」(AMZN)
调查 · 本周 6 次 · 首见 2026-06-29
「BofA 正在开展对 Big Tech 盈利和 CAPEX 的买方预期调查,涵盖 GOOGL, META, MSFT, AMZN, AAPL, ORCL, CRWV, NBIS」(BofA)
外交访问 · 本周 6 次 · 首见 2026-06-26
「Japan PM Takaichi to visit India from July 1-3th - India Foreign Ministry」(Japan PM Takaichi)
AI竞争格局 · 本周 6 次 · 首见 2026-06-26
「Apple simultaneously also does not continue to do well in AI on a relative basis」(Apple)
模型可用性 · 本周 6 次 · 首见 2026-06-26
「ALL of the "mythos-level" models that cost billions to develop are not publicly available: - Claude Mythos 5」(Claude Mythos 5)
市場規模預測 · 本周 6 次 · 首见 2026-06-26
「2025 年:約 27 億美元」(AI 電源半導體)