以下部分引用 AI 总结，现阶段 AI 仍然有幻觉。请以内容的原文为准。
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Doubao
36 atoms · 跨 14 天 · 首见 2026-04-27 · 最近 2026-07-02
三色: 🟦 fact 33 · 🟥 take 3 · stance ▲2/▼4/◆2
叙事状态: 🍂 fading (退潮) · 💤 沉寂 · 策展近14d 0 atom · 🐦 X 近14d 13
状态只算低频策展源 (群/卖方); X firehose 仅作背景音量
来源: X 36
时态: fresh:35 · aging:1
标签: 好数字:24 · 好信源:8 · 好观点:2 · 好思考:2
🟨 AI 综合 · junior analyst 概览
展开 AI 综合 (灰色 · 非市场结论 · 点击数字溯源到原 atom)
model: deepseek-chat · 2026-07-12 · 默认折叠
Doubao 拥有 2 亿日活跃用户和 3.45 亿月活跃用户
¹¹，但每日营收却不足 100 万元人民币
¹¹。这款中国最受欢迎的 AI 应用在 6 月流失了 610 万用户
¹。其 Token 消耗总量达 180T
¹，每秒处理 1.8 亿 tokens 相当于 75 分钟 1080P 视频生成
¹。定价决策背后的成本压力正在加速增长，且快于订阅收入能弥补的速度
¹。用户规模与变现效率之间存在明显断裂
¹¹。
💢 核心分歧 (1 轴)
1. 日活2亿 vs 营收不足百万：用户规模与变现效率的断裂
*topic: 用户规模/营收低迷/营收能力 · 1 bull vs 2 bear*
🟢 bullish 侧:
🔴 bearish 侧:
展开 2 条中性
🔗 因果传导 (causal map)
*Doubao 在产业链上的传导关系. 边是群里/卖方陈述的因果 (非 AI 推断), 数字 = 几条 atom 支撑. 点 atom 溯源.*
↓ 下游·近期陈述 (1)
- 🟢 ByteDance · 竞争 · 1 次陈述
as every company builds Agent products around its own models, users may gradually stop choosing 'models' directly. They
🟦 客观事实 (facts) (30)
- <a id="atom-6c2665f7c506fe5e"></a>🟦 2026-06-24
X·@zephyr_z9 · Token消耗总量 · 算力消耗
So Doubao's 180T
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=180T · date=na · direction=na
- <a id="atom-7a13b6f19063e0c3"></a>🟦 2026-06-24
X·@zephyr_z9 · 每秒token消耗 · 技术路线/成本效率
180M tokens is 75 minutes of 1080P videogen. So Doubao's 180T
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=180M tokens · unit=tokens per 75 minutes of 1080P videogen
- <a id="atom-46b6fd3f70054c89"></a>🟦 2026-06-03
X·@vince_chow1 · 月活跃用户变化 · 用户规模
China's most popular AI app Doubao lost 6.1 million users
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=-6.1M · date=2026-06-03
- <a id="atom-1a289902dabf29a6"></a>🟦 2026-07-02
X·@poezhao0605 · 日活跃用户数 · 用户规模
ByteDance's most discussed AI product has 200 million daily users
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=200 million · date=2026-07-02
- <a id="atom-b1a752ebf216001b"></a>🟦 2026-07-02
X·@poezhao0605 · 月活跃用户数 · 用户规模
345 million monthly actives
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=345 million · date=2026-07-02
- <a id="atom-ddc78ac1fcbfa47a"></a>🟦 2026-07-02
X·@poezhao0605 · 日营收 · 营收
makes less than Rmb 1 million a day
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=less than Rmb 1 million · date=2026-07-02 · direction=below
- <a id="atom-b822fe6a3a475190"></a>🟦 2026-07-01
X·@poezhao0605 · daily revenue · 营收
Doubao makes less than Rmb 1 million a day
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=less than Rmb 1 million · date=2026-07-01
- <a id="atom-0f1ec0fed8b90e52"></a>🟦 2026-07-01
X·@poezhao0605 · daily active users · 用户规模
ByteDance’s Doubao has 200 million daily users
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=200 million · date=2026-07-01
- <a id="atom-782b39b4c4ac8f09"></a>🟦 2026-06-30
X·@poezhao0605 · daily active users · 用户规模
Doubao has 200 million daily users.
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=200 million · date=2026-06-30
- <a id="atom-46bcb5d291ff8cd4"></a>🟦 2026-06-30
X·@poezhao0605 · daily revenue · 营收
It generates less than Rmb 1 million a day.
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=less than Rmb 1 million · date=2026-06-30
- <a id="atom-7d85aeda99e1b9ca"></a>🟦 2026-06-29
X·@poezhao0605 · monthly active users · 用户规模
345 million monthly actives
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=345 million · date=2026-06-29
- <a id="atom-e01bf4b42fad2e5f"></a>🟦 2026-06-29
X·@poezhao0605 · daily revenue · 营收
Less than Rmb 1 million a day in revenue
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=less than Rmb 1 million · date=2026-06-29
- <a id="atom-54729923fcc4cb32"></a>🟦 2026-06-29
X·@poezhao0605 · 月活跃用户数 · 用户数
345 million monthly actives
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=345 million · date=monthly
- <a id="atom-7d7f4bb28f1f222a"></a>🟦 2026-06-29
X·@poezhao0605 · 日活跃用户数 · 用户数
200 million daily users
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=200 million · date=daily
- <a id="atom-381cccec90941074"></a>🟦 2026-06-29
X·@poezhao0605 · 日收入 · 营收
makes less than Rmb 1 million a day
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=less than Rmb 1 million · direction=less than · date=daily
- <a id="atom-1ecd968b45a059e0"></a>🟦 2026-06-24
X·@poezhao0605 · 日 token 消耗量 · 消耗量
Doubao's daily token consumption hit 180 trillion.
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=180 万亿 · date=2026-06-24
- <a id="atom-8b0df3875f65b7c0"></a>🟦 2026-06-24
X·@poezhao0605 · 日 token 消耗量增长率 · 消耗量
That is a 50% increase in six weeks.
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=50% · date=6 周
- <a id="atom-dda4dc20c4238330"></a>🟦 2026-06-24
X·@poezhao0605 · 付费订阅价格区间 · 产品发布
Doubao just launched paid subscriptions. RMB 68 to 500 per month, effective today.
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=68-500 人民币/月 · date=2026-06-24
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-2bb88e8b386e1a4e"></a>🟦 2026-06-10
X·@TechBuzzChina · MAU decline after price hikes · 订单需求/仓位情绪
Doubao MAU declined ~6.1M after price hikes
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=~6.1M · direction=down
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-a3535f07faf31b19"></a>🟦 2026-06-03
X·@poezhao0605 · MAU 变化 · 用户规模
Since Doubao's subscription pricing surfaced in early May, the app lost 6 million monthly active users. First decline since it scaled past 300 million.
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=-6M · date=2026-06-03
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-2b79f415ca8e49a6"></a>🟦 2026-06-01
X·@poezhao0605 · 将正式推出付费内容 · 产品发布
36Kr reports Doubao will officially launch paid content in late June
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: date=late June 2026
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-52b560afe2dbad89"></a>🟦 2026-06-01
X·@poezhao0605 · 计划Q3集成电商 · 产品发布
with e-commerce integration planned for Q3
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: date=Q3 2026
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-4e322c86298ffa9e"></a>🟦 2026-05-06
X·@poezhao0605 · MAU · 用户规模
China’s largest AI consumer app (345 million MAU)
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=345 million
- <a id="atom-a5ae2024b94a9d9d"></a>🟦 2026-05-06
X·@poezhao0605 · 付费订阅入门价格 · 价格动态
Entry price: RMB 68/month
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=68 RMB/month
- <a id="atom-a0076eca15ddd55d"></a>🟦 2026-05-05
X·@WSTAnalystApe · 月活跃用户数 · 活跃用户
Doubao: 约1.1亿
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=约1.1亿 · date=2025年4月
[图: 全球热门AI应用月活跃用户数（2025年4月）排行榜柱状图 — ChatGPT: 约5.5亿; Quark: 约1.5亿; Doubao: 约1.1亿; DeepSeek: 约1亿]
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-4fa4a56a4b3bcdc6"></a>🟦 2026-04-27
X·@poezhao0605 · 市场份额 · 市场份额
Doubao: 20% share of China's AI app iOS downloads in March 2026
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=20% · date=2026-03
[图: 2026年3月中国本土AI应用iOS下载量份额排行条形图 — Doubao: 20%; Jimeng AI: 17%; Qwen: 13%; Yuanbao: 12%; Ant Afu: 11%]
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-5d4b886c7f349bc5"></a>🟦 2026-06-29
X·@ZhihuFrontier · New Professional Subscription Introduces Three-Tier Pricing · 定价权
Doubao | New Professional Subscription Introduces Three-Tier Pricing
tags: 好信源 · → daily
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-7fd2f4b197d54bcf"></a>🟦 2026-06-17
X·@teortaxesTex · 训练原生多模态模型 · 多模态
_They are training native multimodal
Minimax and Doubao_
tags: 好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-55b90d1cf12996c2"></a>🟦 2026-06-02
X·@yicaichina · 预期推出付费功能 · 产品发布
ByteDance’s AI chatbot Doubao is expected to launch paid features late this month
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: date=late this month
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-e88109126848483a"></a>🟦 2026-06-02
X·@yicaichina · 付费服务计划整合电商功能 · 合作客户
Paid services could be integrated with e-commerce functions in the third quarter, using subsidies to drive traffic to Douyin Shop, before entering a broader operational phase in the fourth quarter.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: date=third quarter
📷 原图
🟥 空头 takes (bearish) (1)
- <a id="atom-3d50e3d0c068f079"></a>🟥 2026-06-24
X·@poezhao0605 · 定价决策成本压力 · 成本压力
The cost pressure behind this pricing decision is accelerating faster than the subscription can offset.
tags: 好思考 · → daily
🟥 中性 takes (neutral) (1)
- <a id="atom-c275f9c7e3ac6412"></a>🟥 2026-05-08
X·@pstAsiatech [老化中] · 付费计划为行业转折点 · 产品发布
Doubao’s pay plans mark a turning point for China’s chatbot sector
tags: 好观点 · → daily
⏱ 时间轴 (近 20)
- 🟦 2026-07-02 ·
fact · 日活跃用户数 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-07-02 ·
fact · 月活跃用户数 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-07-02 ·
fact · 日营收 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-07-01 ·
fact · daily revenue · → daily
- 🟦 2026-07-01 ·
fact · daily active users · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-30 ·
fact · daily active users · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-30 ·
fact · daily revenue · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-29 ·
fact · New Professional Subscription Introduces Three-Tier Pricing · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-29 ·
fact · monthly active users · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-29 ·
fact · daily revenue · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-29 ·
fact · 月活跃用户数 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-29 ·
fact · 日活跃用户数 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-29 ·
fact · 日收入 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-24 ·
fact · 日 token 消耗量 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-24 ·
fact · 日 token 消耗量增长率 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-24 ·
fact · 付费订阅价格区间 · → daily
- 🟥 2026-06-24 ·
narrative · 竞争态势定位 · → daily
- 🟥 2026-06-24 ·
narrative · 定价决策成本压力 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-24 ·
fact · Token消耗总量 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-24 ·
fact · 每秒token消耗 · → daily
*以下是 Chinese AI labs 板块的信号 (Doubao 是成员), 非直接针对 Doubao — 供板块上下文参考*
展开板块信号
- 🟥▲ 2026-06-13 [twitter] · 价格竞争力
There’s also really competitive offering from chinese labs out, quality is usually a year behind latest gen but for 10%
- 🟦▲ 2026-06-07 [twitter] · gap 10 years ago
Chinese labs were 10 years behind (per The Economist), now they are 6 months
- 🟥▼ 2026-06-10 [twitter] · 面临美国网络攻击风险
They want to rugpull Chinese labs – no, the entire Chinese IT, if not the whole infrastructure of the society – near the
- 🟥▲ 2026-06-07 [twitter] · gap to frontier closed models
the difference is at max 6 months
- 🟥▲ 2026-06-07 [twitter] · fundamental capability gap
There is no fundamental human resource capability gap. It is compute and $$$ and datasets.
- 🟥▼ 2026-06-04 [twitter] · 停止发布开放权重模型的影响
If they stop, the frontier falls further and further behind to those who want to use local/fine-tuned models
- 🟥▲ 2026-05-31 [twitter] · resource advantages relative to US labs
cheaper energy, more abundant AI researchers and the ability to distill and learn from leading US models, but less capab
- 🟥▼ 2026-07-01 [twitter] · would not economically survive Anthropic competition
Chinese AI labs would not economically survive the juggernaut of Anthropic - unless China took drastic steps
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