CCL 是上游里唯一现货可验证的涨价 —— 不是预测、不是 LTA 传闻，是已经成交的 ASP + 已经动的 spot，再叠 JPM 分级 TAM 的斜率，等级越高越陡。
建滔 2026 年度 CCL ASP rise 84% YoY 至 ~HKD230/张（高于 2021 峰值）+ 6 月再把 CCL/prepreg ASP 提 15%[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-20"KBL's annual CCL ASP is expected to rise 84% YoY in 2026 to around HK$230/sheet, above the 2021 peak."。
现货若全面执行 = Rmb150 → Rmb270/张；建滔(1888 HK) 合理倍数 TP HKD140[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-20"KBL can easily hit HKD140 on a reasonable multiple"。
JPM 分级 TAM：M9 USD1.59B → USD3.46B → USD6.48B（25/26/27），M8 USD2.30B → USD2.43B → USD2.72B，M7 及以下被边缘化 = mix 一面倒往高端走[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-20"M9 becoming the main growth engine, moving from around US$1.59B in 2025 to US$3.46B in 2026 and US$6.48B in 2027"。
单板总面积阶梯：Hopper 38,280 → Blackwell 82,782 →Rubin 144,918→ Rubin Ultra 322,040 → Feynman ~432,000 mm²[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-20"Hopper body size around 3,190mm² and total size around 38,280mm²; Blackwell total 82,782mm²; Rubin total 144,918mm²; Rubin Ultra total 322,040mm²; Feynman total around 432,000mm²"。
产能寡头 + UTR 紧到爆：Unimicron(3037 TT) 73 → 117、Ibiden(4062 JT) 65 → 107（24→28）；UTR 65% → 70%+ → 90%+ → 100%+（24/25/26/27）→ LTA 锁单顺理成章[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-20"Unimicron capacity rises from 73 in 2024 to 117 in 2028, while Ibiden rises from 65 to 107"。
T-glass 配额 = 第二道护城河：Unimicron 35–40%、Ibiden 30–35%；Ibiden 客户已不是 Nvidia 一条腿 —— Nvidia 49% + AMD 15% + Intel EMIB 14% + Intel others 17%[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-20"Nvidia is around 49%, AMD is 15%, Intel EMIB is 14%, Intel others is 17% and others is 5%"。
高端微孔钻针 ASP = 普通钻针 3–4x（FY25 CNY2.70 vs CNY0.74）→ 量没大涨 mix 也能把收入/毛利拉起来；广东大族 正从日本 Union Tool 抢份额[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-20"High-end micro-via bits have ASPs around 3–4x standard bits, roughly CNY2.70 versus CNY0.74 in FY25"。
中国 PCB capex 已现拐点：前六大本土厂商 24–26 YTD 累计承诺 ~CNY98B，2026 YTD 单年 > CNY50B[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-20"top six domestic Chinese PCB players have committed close to CNY98B of capex from 2024 to 2026 YTD, and 2026 YTD alone is already more than CNY50B"。按 12–18 个月交付滞后 → 2026–27 设备交付潮。