单机价值跃升: 单机架 CCL 价值量从 H100 的几千美元飙升至 Vera Rubin 的数万美元[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-20"… is moving from only a few thousand dollars in H100/H200 to tens of thousands of dollars for Vera Rubin racks. Look at Kingboard Lam. (1888 HK). Cit…"。JPM 预计高阶 M9 TAM 将从 2025 年的 $1.59B 增至 2027 年的 $6.48B[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-20"…moving from around US$1.59B in 2025 to US$3.46B in 2026 and US$6.48B in 2027. M8 also grows from around US$2.30B to US$2.43B and…"。
建滔 (1888 HK) 提价: 6月提价 15% 后，预期 2026 年 ASP 将同比大涨 84% 至 HK$230/张[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-20"…rlier in the year. KBL’s annual CCL ASP is expected to rise 84% YoY in 2026 to around HK$230/sheet, above the 2021 peak. Spot price could rise from around Rmb…"，突破 2021 年高点；若涨价顺利，年底现货价可达 Rmb270/张。
PCB 设备迎拐点 多·上游设备
资本开支滞后传导 = 26-27年设备交付大周期
中国区 Capex 爆发: 头部六厂 24-26 年已承诺近 CNY98B 开支[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-20"…on. The top six domestic Chinese PCB players have committed close to CNY98B of capex from 2024 to 2026 YTD, and 2026 YTD alone is alrea…"。设备交付通常滞后 12-18 个月，将转化为 26-27 年的强劲交付周期。
广东微容 (Dtech) 逻辑: 微型钻头 ASP 约 CNY2.70，是标准品 (CNY0.74) 的 3-4 倍[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-20"… used for AI PCBs. High-end micro-via bits have ASPs around 3–4x standard bits, roughly CNY2.70 versus CNY0.74 in FY25. So even if unit vo…"。AI PCB 容错率低，赋予精密耗材龙头更强定价权。
ABF 载板尺寸激增 多·载板
物理尺寸翻倍吃掉产能 = 2027 年利用率或超 100% ABF 需求至少延续至 2030 年
尺寸通胀严重: Nvidia Hopper 总尺寸约 38,280mm² → Rubin Ultra 激增至 322,040mm²[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-20"…8mm² total size, and Rubin Ultra at 16,102mm² body size and 322,040mm² total size. That is a huge physical scaling problem. 14. Feynman could…"→ Feynman 进一步达 432,000mm²，带来巨大的物理缩放难题。
欣兴 (3037 TT) 占优: 产能第一（2028年达 117）且掌握 35-40% 关键 T-glass 份额[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-20"…ubstrate battleground. JPM’s T-glass allocation chart shows Unimicron around 35–40%, Ibiden around 30–35%, with the rest going to others. If T-…"，若行业利用率破百，规模和分配优势将放大。
Ibiden (4062 JT) 增量: Gama 和 Ono 厂 70%+ 资本开支由 Nvidia/Intel 提供[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-20"…(4062 JT) as an example, their Gama and Ono fabs are mostly 70%+ funded by Nvidia and Intel. 13. We all know demand is rising rapidly, but the substrat…"。若 MTK 接手 TPU v9，大概率采用 EMIB-T 封装，将为 27-28 年提供额外营收增量。