KBL 提价提速: 6月将 CCL 和半固化片 ASP 提高 15%；预计 2026 年年度 CCL ASP 将同比上涨 84% 至约 HK$230/sheet[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-20"Random Thoughts: 1. If anyone has been following me, you guys will know that I’ve been a big advocate for CCL, PCB, subs…"，现货价有望在 2026 年底升至 Rmb270/sheet。
M9 级材料爆发: JPM 预测 M9 = 主要增长引擎，TAM：2025 年 US$1.59B → 2027 年 US$6.48B[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-20"Random Thoughts: 1. If anyone has been following me, you guys will know that I’ve been a big advocate for CCL, PCB, subs…"，M7 及以下材料重要性下降。
对 PM 来说 = 关注 KBL 盈利预测上修 当前模型可能尚未完全计入 Nvidia 认证。
PCB 设备迎拐点 多·设备
资本开支滞后效应显现，高端耗材享极高溢价
中国头部 PCB 厂商 Capex: 中国头部 6 家 PCB 厂商 2024-2026 年已承诺近 CNY98B 资本开支[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-20"Random Thoughts: 1. If anyone has been following me, you guys will know that I’ve been a big advocate for CCL, PCB, subs…"→ 2026-2027 年强劲设备交付周期 (滞后 12-18 个月)。
Dtech 微型钻头溢价: 高端微型过孔钻头 ASP 约为标准钻头的 3-4 倍（CNY2.70 vs CNY0.74）[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-20"Random Thoughts: 1. If anyone has been following me, you guys will know that I’ve been a big advocate for CCL, PCB, subs…"，AI PCB 对良率的严苛要求赋予头部耗材商更强定价权。
Nvidia 芯片尺寸激增: Hopper 总尺寸约 38,280mm²，至 Rubin Ultra 飙升至 322,040mm²，Feynman 甚至达 432,000mm²[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-20"Random Thoughts: 1. If anyone has been following me, you guys will know that I’ve been a big advocate for CCL, PCB, subs…"，巨幅物理扩展消耗大量产能。
Unimicron 占优: 作为最大产能玩家，Unimicron 掌握 35-40% 的 T-glass 分配[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-20"Random Thoughts: 1. If anyone has been following me, you guys will know that I’ve been a big advocate for CCL, PCB, subs…"，在 2027-2028 年行业利用率超 100% 时规模优势将显著放大。
Ibiden 获大厂注资: Gama 和 Ono 工厂超 70% 由 Nvidia 和 Intel 资助[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-20"Random Thoughts: 1. If anyone has been following me, you guys will know that I’ve been a big advocate for CCL, PCB, subs…"；客户结构多元化（Nvidia 49%, AMD 15%, Intel 31%），若 MTK 接手 TPU v9，顶线仍有增长空间。