CCL 价值量跃升 ⟪LINK12⟫
Vera Rubin 驱动 CCL 价值量跨数量级跃升 + 建滔积层板迎量价齐升
- 单机架价值量飙升: H100/H200 数千美元 → Vera Rubin 数万美元[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-20"… is moving from only a few thousand dollars in H100/H200 to tens of thousands of dollars for Vera Rubin racks. Look at Kingboard Lam. (1888 HK). Cit…"。
- 建滔积层板 (1888 HK): 6月 CCL 和半固化片提价 15%[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-20"…me trade. Kingboard Laminates raised CCL and prepreg ASP by 15% in June, after around 10% inflation earlier in the year. KB…" → 预计 2026 年 ASP 同比涨 84% 至 HK$230/张[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-20"…rlier in the year. KBL’s annual CCL ASP is expected to rise 84% YoY in 2026 to around HK$230/sheet, above the 2021 peak. Sp…"。花旗模型尚未计入 NVDA 认证。
- M9 成为主引擎: JPM 数据显示，M9 级 CCL TAM 将从 2025 年的 US$1.59B 增至 2027 年的 US$6.48B[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-20"…moving from around US$1.59B in 2025 to US$3.46B in 2026 and US$6.48B in 2027. M8 also grows from around US$2.30B to US$2.43B and…"，结构明显向高端低损耗材料转移。
PCB 设备拐点 ⟪LINK13⟫
中国 PCB 资本开支迎拐点，微钻头龙头受益于 AI 严苛良率要求
- 资本开支周期: 国内前六大 PCB 厂 24-26 年承诺近 CNY98B 开支[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-20"…op six domestic Chinese PCB players have committed close to CNY98B of capex from 2024 to 2026 YTD, and 2026 YTD alone is alrea…" + 12-18 个月交付滞后期 = 预计 26-27 年迎设备交付大年。
- 广东生益 (Dtech): 高端微通孔钻头 ASP = 标准钻头 3-4 倍[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-20"… used for AI PCBs. High-end micro-via bits have ASPs around 3–4x standard bits, roughly CNY2.70 versus CNY0.74 in FY25. So e…"，正从日本 Union Tool 抢占份额。AI PCB 良率要求苛刻 → 赋予精密耗材龙头更强定价权。
载板尺寸极限 ⟪LINK14⟫
芯片尺寸扩张带来巨大物理缩放挑战，产能与 T-glass 成为核心瓶颈
- 尺寸狂飙: 整体尺寸: Hopper 38,280mm² → Rubin Ultra 322,040mm²[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-20"…8mm² total size, and Rubin Ultra at 16,102mm² body size and 322,040mm² total size. That is a huge physical scaling problem. 14. Fe…"，Feynman 甚至达 432,000mm²，带来巨大物理缩放难题。
- 产能利用率打满: 预计 UTR: 24年 65% → 27年 100% 以上[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-20"…% in 2024 to 70%+ in 2025, should be around 90% in 2026 and above 100% in 2027. I suspect we could see LTAs from customers to secu…"。Ibiden Gama/Ono 工厂 70%+ 由 NVDA/Intel 提供资金。
- 首选标的: 欣兴 (3037 TT) 掌握最大产能 + 35-40% T-glass 份额[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-20"…ound. JPM’s T-glass allocation chart shows Unimicron around 35–40%, Ibiden around 30–35%, with the rest going to others. If T-…"；Ibiden (4062 JT) 客户结构优化，若 MTK 接手 TPU v9，有望采用 EMIB-T 封装继续拉动增长。