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Trend Micro
36 atoms · 跨 5 天 · 首见 2026-04-17 · 最近 2026-06-11
三色: 🟦 fact 27 · 🟥 take 9 · stance ▲8/▼8/◆1
叙事状态: 🍂 fading (退潮) · 💤 沉寂 · 策展近14d 0 atom
状态只算低频策展源 (群/卖方); X firehose 仅作背景音量
来源: X 36
时态: fresh:35 · stale:1
标签: 好数字:28 · 好信源:5 · 好观点:3 · 好问题:1 · 好思考:1
🟨 AI 综合 · junior analyst 概览
展开 AI 综合 (灰色 · 非市场结论 · 点击数字溯源到原 atom)
model: deepseek-chat · 2026-07-12 · 默认折叠
Trend Micro 是全球最便宜的上市网络安全公司
¹，但收入增速仅约+3%为同行最慢
¹，且2026年利润率指引下调
¹。其净现金头寸看似庞大
¹，但剔除2360亿日元递延收入后近乎为零
¹。公司有两个估值折价原因：在错误交易所上市，且所有者不愿出售给PE
¹¹。不过，VisionOne高增长产品Q1美国同比增长38%，管理层指引上半年加速
¹¹。美国ARR仍为负
¹，销售增长轨迹偏弱
¹。当前6x EV/EBITDA
¹，叠加4.5%总股东收益率（75%+毛利率支撑）
¹¹，跑输情景似乎已被部分定价
¹。
🧭 拥挤度 (一人一票): ▲ 1 位作者 (KOL1) vs ▼ 3 位作者 (KOL3)
🟦 客观事实 (facts) (27)
- <a id="atom-e545e92ffd9edfa0"></a>🟦 2026-06-11
X·@aodarkyee · margin guidance · 盈利能力/业绩指引
Margins guided down in 2026
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: direction=down
- <a id="atom-1eab2e93bd07733e"></a>🟦 2026-06-11
X·@JapanDeepValue1 · VisionOne growth product acceleration guidance · 业绩指引
guided for this to accelerate in first half
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: direction=accelerate
- <a id="atom-a0d46d196987c369"></a>🟦 2026-06-11
X·@aodarkyee · revenue growth rate · 营收
slowest grower (~+3% cc)
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=~+3% · direction=yoq
- <a id="atom-8d670c0012f87b7f"></a>🟦 2026-06-11
X·@aodarkyee · US ARR growth · 营收
US ARR still negative
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=negative · direction=yoq
- <a id="atom-d587bac396b6914a"></a>🟦 2026-06-11
X·@JapanDeepValue1 · VisionOne growth product revenue growth · 营收
US 'VisionOne' growth product grew 38% y/y in Q1
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=38% · direction=y/y
- <a id="atom-1fd1047384e81907"></a>🟦 2026-06-11
X·@JapanDeepValue1 · gross margin · 毛利率
TM has 75%+ gross margins
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=75%+
- <a id="atom-40190f357f0d4397"></a>🟦 2026-06-11
X·@JapanDeepValue1 · total shareholder yield · 回购分红
100% payout ratio which comes to 4.5% (70%div, 30% cash)
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=4.5%
- <a id="atom-74469de8b341a486"></a>🟦 2026-06-11
X·@JapanDeepValue1 · EV/EBITDA · 估值
at 6x EV/EBTIDA
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=6x
- <a id="atom-1bb28fdf2840dbbb"></a>🟦 2026-06-10
X·@JapanDeepValue1 · EV/EBITDA · 估值
cheapest global listed cybersec 5.3x EV/EBITDA
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=5.3x · date=T12M
[图: 彭博终端截图，展示了全球网络安全指数（.CYBER1 U Index）与趋势科技（4704 JT Equity）相对该指数比值的历史走势对比图。 — .CYBER1 U Index 最新价格: 2145.8884; 4704 JT / .CYBER1 比值最新值: 2.8990; 时间范围: 06/10/2021 - 06/09/2026]
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-3fd98cc637ea05c8"></a>🟦 2026-06-10
X·@JapanDeepValue1 · payout ratio target · 回购分红
signals 100% payout ratio
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=100%
[图: 彭博终端截图，展示了全球网络安全指数（.CYBER1 U Index）与趋势科技（4704 JT Equity）相对该指数比值的历史走势对比图。 — .CYBER1 U Index 最新价格: 2145.8884; 4704 JT / .CYBER1 比值最新值: 2.8990; 时间范围: 06/10/2021 - 06/09/2026]
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-61480f7372afae27"></a>🟦 2026-06-10
X·@JapanDeepValue1 · total shareholder yield · 回购分红
70% div 30% buyback which gets to a total of around 4.5% yield
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=~4.5%
[图: 彭博终端截图，展示了全球网络安全指数（.CYBER1 U Index）与趋势科技（4704 JT Equity）相对该指数比值的历史走势对比图。 — .CYBER1 U Index 最新价格: 2145.8884; 4704 JT / .CYBER1 比值最新值: 2.8990; 时间范围: 06/10/2021 - 06/09/2026]
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-ab572d9fdea01036"></a>🟦 2026-06-10
X·@JapanDeepValue1 · net cash as % of market cap · 现金流
nearly 30% of their market cap in net cash
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=~30%
[图: 彭博终端截图，展示了全球网络安全指数（.CYBER1 U Index）与趋势科技（4704 JT Equity）相对该指数比值的历史走势对比图。 — .CYBER1 U Index 最新价格: 2145.8884; 4704 JT / .CYBER1 比值最新值: 2.8990; 时间范围: 06/10/2021 - 06/09/2026]
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-029c44d8dd4a2173"></a>🟦 2026-06-10
X·@JapanDeepValue1 · debt status · 现金流
no debt
tags: 好数字 · → daily
[图: 彭博终端截图，展示了全球网络安全指数（.CYBER1 U Index）与趋势科技（4704 JT Equity）相对该指数比值的历史走势对比图。 — .CYBER1 U Index 最新价格: 2145.8884; 4704 JT / .CYBER1 比值最新值: 2.8990; 时间范围: 06/10/2021 - 06/09/2026]
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-8d34d9dbc2e214c5"></a>🟦 2026-06-10
X·@Anssi_A · P/FCF multiple · 估值
It is still like 20x P/FCF
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=~20x
- <a id="atom-926a7a2defaac64e"></a>🟦 2026-06-10
X·@Anssi_A · EV/FCF multiple · 估值
15x EV/FCF
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=~15x
- <a id="atom-52149222f61b4823"></a>🟦 2026-06-10
X·@Anssi_A · P/E · 估值
20x P/E though
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=20x
- <a id="atom-bef5190c6d0c74cd"></a>🟦 2026-06-10
X·@JapanDeepValue1 · EV/FCF · 估值
its 8.6x EV/FCF
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=8.6x
- <a id="atom-a23b4e664c4eca19"></a>🟦 2026-06-01
X·@JapanDeepValue1 · trading 5x EV/EBITDA · 估值
trading 5x Ev/ebitda due to its very large net cash position
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=5x EV/EBITDA
- <a id="atom-4348b3b8d498f83f"></a>🟦 2026-06-01
X·@JapanDeepValue1 · has very large net cash position · 现金流
due to its very large net cash position
tags: 好数字 · → daily
- <a id="atom-b35419920591c0e5"></a>🟦 2026-06-01
X·@JapanDeepValue1 · is barely off its 5 yr lows · 价格动态
Meanwhile trend micro is barely off its 5 yr lows after rebranding asTrendAI, partnering with anthropic and trading 5x Ev/ebitda due to its very large net cash position
tags: 好数字 · → daily
- <a id="atom-de909f493a4e29c2"></a>🟦 2026-06-01
X·@JapanDeepValue1 · partnered with Anthropic · 合作客户/产品发布
partnering with anthropic
tags: 好数字 · → daily
- <a id="atom-355455256e02592b"></a>🟦 2026-06-01
X·@JapanDeepValue1 · investing heavily in AI growth · 资本开支/技术路线
But they are investing heavily in AI growth
tags: 好数字 · → daily
- <a id="atom-d857b3a8bdcd1e46"></a>🟦 2026-05-29
X·@JapanDeepValue1 · EV/EBITDA 估值 · 估值
Trend micro still lagging trades on something like 5x ev/ebitda even after an anthropic partnership and rebranding as TrendAI
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=5x · date=2026-05-29
- <a id="atom-9b6397375cfbbe6a"></a>🟦 2026-04-17
X·@JapanDeepValue1 · 现金占比 · 现金流
35% net cash
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=35% net cash · date=now
- <a id="atom-2bd6799f88b9ea05"></a>🟦 2026-06-10
X·@JapanDeepValue1 · partnership · 合作客户/产品发布
join project glasswing, sign partnership agreements with Anthropic and rebrand a product to TrendAI
tags: 好信源 · → daily
[图: 彭博终端截图，展示了全球网络安全指数（.CYBER1 U Index）与趋势科技（4704 JT Equity）相对该指数比值的历史走势对比图。 — .CYBER1 U Index 最新价格: 2145.8884; 4704 JT / .CYBER1 比值最新值: 2.8990; 时间范围: 06/10/2021 - 06/09/2026]
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-aeb5727a7e8aa2d6"></a>🟦 2026-06-10
X·@JapanDeepValue1 · M&A interest · 并购
had multiple P/E firms trying to take it private
tags: 好信源 · → daily
[图: 彭博终端截图，展示了全球网络安全指数（.CYBER1 U Index）与趋势科技（4704 JT Equity）相对该指数比值的历史走势对比图。 — .CYBER1 U Index 最新价格: 2145.8884; 4704 JT / .CYBER1 比值最新值: 2.8990; 时间范围: 06/10/2021 - 06/09/2026]
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-9bd2558410ad5ab2"></a>🟦 2026-06-10
X·@JapanDeepValue1 · business growth · 竞争格局
pursuing high growth businesses segments with top tier partners
tags: 好信源 · → daily
[图: 彭博终端截图，展示了全球网络安全指数（.CYBER1 U Index）与趋势科技（4704 JT Equity）相对该指数比值的历史走势对比图。 — .CYBER1 U Index 最新价格: 2145.8884; 4704 JT / .CYBER1 比值最新值: 2.8990; 时间范围: 06/10/2021 - 06/09/2026]
📷 原图
🟥 多头 takes (bullish) (3)
- <a id="atom-90d51dd25401daa7"></a>🟥 2026-06-11
X·@JapanDeepValue1 · net cash position · 现金流
still leaving them with a very large genuine net cash position
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=very large genuine
- <a id="atom-328edb3f0b1acde0"></a>🟥 2026-06-11
X·@JapanDeepValue1 · underperformance pricing · 估值/仓位情绪
the underachieve growth scenario seems moderately or even fully priced in
tags: 好思考 · → daily
- <a id="atom-7a21118a22844595"></a>🟥 2026-04-17
X·@JapanDeepValue1 [老旧] · 估值地位 · 估值
Cheapest globally listed cybersecurity company
tags: 好观点 · → daily
🟥 空头 takes (bearish) (4)
- <a id="atom-536c33d25bf5b001"></a>🟥 2026-06-11
X·@aodarkyee · deferred revenue · 现金流
Strip the ¥236bn deferred revenue and that 30% net cash is ≈ zero
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=¥236bn
- <a id="atom-e7e0de15921afa02"></a>🟥 2026-06-01
X·@JapanDeepValue1 · is listed on the wrong exchange (reasons for valuation discount) · 估值/监管政策
Two main reasons. 1.) it’s listed on the wrong exchange
tags: 好观点 · → daily
- <a id="atom-b99c0c644217d46b"></a>🟥 2026-06-01
X·@JapanDeepValue1 · owners do not want to sell to private equity · 并购/仓位情绪
2.) owners do not want to sell to private equity
tags: 好观点 · → daily
- <a id="atom-a24291235de7b6f3"></a>🟥 2026-06-01
X·@Comp_Cap_TO · has weak sales growth trajectory · 营收
Weak sales growth trajectory?
tags: 好问题 · → daily
🟥 中性 takes (neutral) (1)
- <a id="atom-f7c35c9800862c45"></a>🟥 2026-06-10
X·@JapanDeepValue1 · P/E · 估值
only moderately expensive on p/e
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=~21.6x
⏱ 时间轴 (近 20)
- 🟦 2026-06-11 ·
fact · revenue growth rate · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-11 ·
fact · US ARR growth · → daily
- 🟥 2026-06-11 ·
fact · deferred revenue · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-11 ·
fact · margin guidance · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-11 ·
fact · VisionOne growth product revenue growth · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-11 ·
fact · VisionOne growth product acceleration guidance · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-11 ·
fact · gross margin · → daily
- 🟥 2026-06-11 ·
fact · net cash position · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-11 ·
fact · total shareholder yield · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-11 ·
fact · EV/EBITDA · → daily
- 🟥 2026-06-11 ·
narrative · underperformance pricing · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-10 ·
fact · EV/EBITDA · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-10 ·
fact · payout ratio target · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-10 ·
fact · total shareholder yield · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-10 ·
fact · partnership · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-10 ·
fact · net cash as % of market cap · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-10 ·
fact · debt status · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-10 ·
fact · M&A interest · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-10 ·
fact · business growth · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-10 ·
fact · P/FCF multiple · → daily
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