以下部分引用 AI 总结,现阶段 AI 仍然有幻觉。请以内容的原文为准。
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no-thinking time-horizons
6 atoms · 跨 1 天 · 首见 2026-06-10 · 最近 2026-06-10
三色: 🟦 fact 6 · 🟥 take 0 · stance ▲1/▼0/◆5
来源: X 6
时态: fresh:6
标签: 好数字:6
预测 (forecast) (1)
- 2026-06-10 · latent reasoning projection by 2030
no-CoT THs still reach almost 10 minutes of latent reasoning by 2030
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=10 minutes · date=2030
事实 (fact) (5)
- 2026-06-10 · doubling period
no-thinking time-horizons doubling every 373 days
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=373 days
- 2026-06-10 · doubling requirement for total parameters
doubling the 50% TH requires a 4.2× increase in total parameters
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=4.2×
- 2026-06-10 · doubling requirement for active parameters
doubling the 50% TH requires a 2.1× increase in active parameters
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=2.1×
- 2026-06-10 · doubling requirement for layer count
doubling the 50% TH requires a 1.3× increase in layer count
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=1.3×
- 2026-06-10 · doubling requirement for pretraining FLOPs
doubling the 50% TH requires a 3.1× increase in pretraining FLOPs
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=3.1×
时间轴 (近 20)
- 2026-06-10 ·
fact · doubling period · → daily
- 2026-06-10 ·
fact · doubling requirement for total parameters · → daily
- 2026-06-10 ·
fact · doubling requirement for active parameters · → daily
- 2026-06-10 ·
fact · doubling requirement for layer count · → daily
- 2026-06-10 ·
fact · doubling requirement for pretraining FLOPs · → daily
- 2026-06-10 ·
forecast · latent reasoning projection by 2030 · → daily
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