INTC Crescent Island 攻推理: 放弃训练市场，新 GPU 采用风冷 + LPDDR5 内存，试图避开 NVDA/AMD 遇到的 HBM 和液冷基础设施瓶颈[1]Akh · 06-01"$INTC Kevork Kechichian, who leads Intel’s data centre group, told the FT that the company is “starting with the basics”…"。
NVDA Vera Rubin 同样采用 LPDDR5: 群友指出 Jensen 刚宣布 Vera Rubin CPU 也将使用 LPDDR5[2]852funda · 06-01"Jensen just said Vera Rubin cpu will use lppdr5 too"。
NVDA 补涨与 ARM 抢跑: 市场认为 NVDA 展前表现滞后存上行空间[3]Mr. Alpha · 06-01"Does anyone think Nvidia gets a bid coming out of computex? Feels so overdue and some upside from the conference but wha…"；同时预期 Jensen 将宣传 Vera 架构，ARM 已提前获得资金追捧[4]techbro · 06-01"ARM definitely gets it when Jensen touts Vera. Oh wait, it already did"。
亚洲供应链挤空: 韩国市场正发生严重挤空，建议在 Jensen 巡回演讲前削减亚洲风险敞口[5]MomoCap · 06-01"There is one ungodly squeeze happening in Korea right now. Seems safer to cut asia risk into Jensen’s tours"。
MS: 泡沫与回调并存个股可能出现 15-20% 回调，但市场整体将继续上行[6]Akh · 05-31"“Are there pockets of excess? Yes. There is crowding going on. We can get 15-20 per cent correction in individual stocks…"。
GS: 见顶条件缺失当前缺乏投机狂热、利润率收缩或美联储加息等典型牛市终结信号[6]Akh · 05-31"“Are there pockets of excess? Yes. There is crowding going on. We can get 15-20 per cent correction in individual stocks…"。
Fidelity: 盈利支撑估值盈利增长比预期更持久 = 长期牛市的关键支撑[6]Akh · 05-31"“Are there pockets of excess? Yes. There is crowding going on. We can get 15-20 per cent correction in individual stocks…"。
中国去库存推迟 Tipping Point: 5月中国炼厂加速消耗库存，吸收了全球供给冲击，将原油市场短缺临界点从6月推迟至7月[7]Akh · 05-31"“Taking a step back, weakness in China’s crude imports could delay the crunch point for the global oil market,” Hamad Hu…"。
市场调配韧性被低估: 韩国转向加拿大、马来西亚等替代沙特份额，证明市场比预期更有韧性，无需通过毁灭需求来平衡[7]Akh · 05-31"“Taking a step back, weakness in China’s crude imports could delay the crunch point for the global oil market,” Hamad Hu…"。
灾难性缺口的争议: 中国观望 = 油价 $200 与 $250 的区别，当前离灾难水平仍远[8]Bessents Burner · 06-01"China on sidelines is the difference between $200 vs $250 still catastrophic and a long way from where we are at"。
🟦◆Crescent Island 发货预测：年底限量出货，18个月开发 · 发货预测/产品开发 the new chip would start shipping in limited quantities to customers by the end of this year, following an 18-month development process
🟥▼战略定位：利用 NVDA/AMD 的 HBM 和液冷约束 · 竞争/HBM Intel is also looking to take advantage of two constraints encountered by Nvidia and AMD: the need to incorporate expensive high-bandwidth memory and liquid-cooling infrastructure