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Anthropic 遭出口管制被视作政治噪音；AI 硬件二阶交易（测试/PCB/导轨）被强烈看好

2026-06-13 周六 (ET) · 主帖 10 / 回复 31
以下部分引用 AI 总结，现阶段 AI 仍然有幻觉。请以内容的原文为准。
一些重点
  1. AI 测试与封装芯片复杂度上升带动测试需求，ASE/KYEC 被看好
  2. PCB 与 CCLAI 需求拉动量价齐升，建滔毛利有望破前高
  3. 导轨与 WFEAI 机架变重利好 King Slide，WFE 订单可见度达 8 个季度
  4. Anthropic 禁令市场共识禁令系政治作秀，预期很快反转，逢低买入

1 AI 硬件二阶交易持续发酵

AI 测试与封装 ⟪LINK17⟫

AI 基建不再仅关乎算力，系统可扩展性让二阶交易持续跑赢 测试环节因芯片复杂度上升而变得更重要[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-13"Random Thoughts: 1. This week has been hectic. We witnessed a big sell-off in the AI trade, but I still think we are in …"

  • 测试容错率下降: AI 芯片更大/更耗电 → 需更多探测/老化测试 → 单颗测试时间延长[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-13"Random Thoughts: 1. This week has been hectic. We witnessed a big sell-off in the AI trade, but I still think we are in …"。
  • OSAT 标的定位: ASE 受益于先进封装和 TSMC 溢出效应；KYEC 是更纯粹的 AI 测试标的，尽管受 Vera Rubin 延迟传闻影响跑输，但逻辑未变；Powertech 则是存储超级周期 + AI 测试概念[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-13"Random Thoughts: 1. This week has been hectic. We witnessed a big sell-off in the AI trade, but I still think we are in …"。

PCB 与 CCL ⟪LINK18⟫

产能扩张跟不上需求，CCL 紧缺和提价将持续 Daiwa 预计 AI PCB TAM 到 2030 年将以 55% CAGR 增长[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-13"Random Thoughts: 1. This week has been hectic. We witnessed a big sell-off in the AI trade, but I still think we are in …"

  • 台湾供应链满载: EMC、TUC 和 GCE 均对 AI 需求持积极态度。新 CCL 产能增速 < PCB → 提价得以持续[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-13"Random Thoughts: 1. This week has been hectic. We witnessed a big sell-off in the AI trade, but I still think we are in …"。
  • 建滔积层板利润弹性: 电子玻璃纤维 ASP 预估 YTD 上涨 60-95%，FR4 CCL ASP 上涨超 60% 至 Rmb180-190/张。巨大的经营杠杆意味着其下一次毛利率峰值可轻松超越 2021 年[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-13"Random Thoughts: 1. This week has been hectic. We witnessed a big sell-off in the AI trade, but I still think we are in …"。
  • 光模块 PCB 升级: 400G → 1.6T 升级：PCB 层数 10-12L → 14-16L，ASP $10 → $25，毛利率升至 40-50%+。Zhen Ding 因具备 mSAP 经验而受益[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-13"Random Thoughts: 1. This week has been hectic. We witnessed a big sell-off in the AI trade, but I still think we are in …"。

导轨与 WFE ⟪LINK19⟫

物理形态变重带来结构件增量，设备端订单可见度创纪录

  • King Slide 利润率惊人: AI 机架更重且复杂，带动导轨需求。Q2 营收预计环比增超 60%，毛利率达 78-79%。AMD Helios 机架宽 120cm（NVL72 为 60cm），承重需求更大，带来更高价值量[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-13"Random Thoughts: 1. This week has been hectic. We witnessed a big sell-off in the AI trade, but I still think we are in …"。
  • WFE 订单可见度破纪录: UBS 上调 WFE 预测（26年 $147bn，27年 $198bn），指出客户给出了 8 个季度的可见度，为近 30 年来罕见。首选 AMAT 和 LRCX[1]Terminal Junkie · 06-13"Random Thoughts: 1. This week has been hectic. We witnessed a big sell-off in the AI trade, but I still think we are in …"。

2 Anthropic 监管风波

Anthropic 禁令 ⟪LINK20⟫

市场普遍视出口管制为政治作秀，预期很快会反转 群内多认为这是白宫的过度反应，不会实质性阻碍 AI 发展

  • 事件起因反复横跳: 故事版本从 AMZN 越狱 Mythos，演变到 AMZN 提示网络安全风险，再到怀疑中国相关背景组织获取了访问权限[2]RI · 06-14"The meat of the story keeps shifting. First, it was Amzn jailbroke Mythos. Gov needed weeks to upgrade security. Then, i…"。政府在与公司沟通前就已决定实施出口管制[3]MyNameIsJeff · 06-13"“After the meeting, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and administration officials spoke on Friday, said four people familiar w…"。
  • 共识：逢低买入 群内认为在与中国进行 AI 竞赛的背景下，停止前沿 AI 开发是不可能的。如果周一开盘前未解决，建议 buy the dip[4]ALC · 06-13"Stop frontier AI development in the middle of an AI race with China? It won’t happen. If this isn’t resolved by Monday o…"。
  • AMZN 充当缓冲垫: 不断提及 Jassy 表明 AMZN 正在为 Anthropic 和白宫降级冲突而“挡子弹”[2]RI · 06-14"The meat of the story keeps shifting. First, it was Amzn jailbroke Mythos. Gov needed weeks to upgrade security. Then, i…"。