AI capability

4 atoms · 跨 4 天 · 首见 2026-04-21 · 最近 2026-06-26

三色: 🟦 fact 0 · 🟥 take 4 · stance ▲3/▼1/◆0

来源: X 4

时态: fresh:3 · stale:1

标签: 好观点:3 · 好数字:1 · 好信源:1

叙事 (narrative) (2)

• 2026-06-26 · gains in capability
  the gains in AI capability is going to be 'just muddling through' rather than executing on a rational plan
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=increase
• 2026-06-10 · cost remains high
  capability remains expensive (bullish)
  tags: 好观点 · → daily

预测 (forecast) (1)

• 2026-06-15 · METR 80% TH improvement hits ~1x YoY by mid-2028
  going for mid-2028 at the latest, with the curve already being hit now. Using projection of hitting ~1x YoY improvement on METR 80% TH as the guessing point
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=~1x YoY improvement · date=mid-2028

立场 (position) (1)

时间轴 (近 20)

• 2026-06-26 · narrative · gains in capability · → daily
• 2026-06-15 · forecast · METR 80% TH improvement hits ~1x YoY by mid-2028 · → daily
• 2026-06-10 · narrative · cost remains high · → daily
• 2026-04-21 · position · bullish outlook · → daily

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