RMB

15 atoms · 跨 8 天 · 首见 2026-05-11 · 最近 2026-06-11

三色: 🟦 fact 5 · 🟥 take 10 · stance ▲6/▼0/◆6

来源: X 15

时态: fresh:15

标签: 好观点:8 · 好数字:5 · 好思考:2 · 好信源:2

叙事 (narrative) (6)

• 2026-06-11 · real and nominal depreciation impact
  I correctly predicted back in 2023 that the RMB's real and nominal depreciation would lead to a period of Chinese export over performance.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• 2026-05-21 · 低估不反映技术和经济水平
  The RMB is still valued at a level that simply does not reflect China's technological and economic level.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• 2026-05-21 · 当前市场低估
  the RMB is currently undervalued at market; this is mainly reflected in the current account surplus.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• 2026-05-20 · 若升值30%
  If the yuan / renminbi were to appreciate 30%, a lot of current account and trade issues would be massively ameliorated.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=up · qty=30%
• 2026-05-19 · US/G7 推动 CN 加强
  Love idea of US/G7 pushing CN to strengthen RMB.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=up
• 2026-05-19 · 人民币互换协议
  personally think there is too much concern about RMB swaps v reality/ totally fine with counter intervention i.e. buying CGBs.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily

预测 (forecast) (4)

• 2026-05-11 · IMF 模型隐含低估区间
  With a realistic current account surplus number (one that takes out the 22 downward adjustment in the goods surplus and uses a realistic estimate of the income balance), the IMF's model would suggest a 25-30% undervaluation
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=25-30% · direction=undervaluation
• 2026-05-24 · 汇率预测（兑USD）
  We may see 6.6 by end of summer.
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=6.6 · date=2026年夏季末
• 2026-05-21 · 10-15%升值至低6区间
  I think a 10-15% adjustment (to the low 6s) clears the current account surplus.
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=10-15% · direction=up
• 2026-05-20 · 10-15%升值使CA平衡
  Exchange rate adjustment that brings CA to neutral (and I think it's more like 10-15% from here, to the low 6s) would not meaningfully change China’s large mfg goods surplus.
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=10-15% · direction=up

事实 (fact) (5)

• 2026-05-31 ⭐ · 美元兑人民币中间价
  China fixes yuan midpoint at strongest level since Feb. 14, 2023, PBoC says
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=最强水平 · date=2026-06-01
• 2026-05-24 · 汇率（兑USD）
  RMB continues to rise vs the USD. Now under 6.8.
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=6.8 · direction=以下 · date=2026-05-25
• 2026-05-20 · 实际有效汇率贬值导致出口超预期表现
  Depreciation of the RMB in real terms in 22/23 led to export over performance in 24/25 as a standard model would predict.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=down · date=2022/2023
• 2026-05-14 · 开盘价
  Yuan Starts Trade at 6.7960 Against Dollar
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=6.7960 · date=2026-05-15
• 2026-05-11 · 低估估计方法
  there are different methodologies for estimating an undervaluation -- the IMF's current account gap is one, the gap v purchasing power parity (i.e. fancy variants on the big mac index) are another, and a third would be so called behaviorial equilibrium exchange rate models
  tags: 好信源 · → daily

时间轴 (近 20)

• 2026-06-11 · narrative · real and nominal depreciation impact · → daily
• 2026-05-31 · fact · 美元兑人民币中间价 · → daily
• 2026-05-24 · fact · 汇率（兑USD） · → daily
• 2026-05-24 · forecast · 汇率预测（兑USD） · → daily
• 2026-05-21 · narrative · 低估不反映技术和经济水平 · → daily
• 2026-05-21 · narrative · 当前市场低估 · → daily
• 2026-05-21 · forecast · 10-15%升值至低6区间 · → daily
• 2026-05-20 · fact · 实际有效汇率贬值导致出口超预期表现 · → daily
• 2026-05-20 · narrative · 若升值30% · → daily
• 2026-05-20 · forecast · 10-15%升值使CA平衡 · → daily
• 2026-05-19 · narrative · US/G7 推动 CN 加强 · → daily
• 2026-05-19 · narrative · 人民币互换协议 · → daily
• 2026-05-14 · fact · 开盘价 · → daily
• 2026-05-11 · forecast · IMF 模型隐含低估区间 · → daily
• 2026-05-11 · fact · 低估估计方法 · → daily

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