KOSPI 资金流出 ⟪LINK21⟫
KOSPI 外资流出集中在存储双雄，系机械性抛售而非基本面恶化 受限于 1940 年投资公司法及 MSCI 权重上限
- 流出规模与集中度: KOSPI 净流出 ~$62bn 中，~$57bn 集中在三星和 SK 海力士[1]H-Cap · 05-24"The ~US$62bn in net foreign outflows from KOSPI — of which ~US$57bn is concentrated in the two largest semiconductor sto…"。韩国半导体外资持股降至 10 年低点 50.5%[1]H-Cap · 05-24"The ~US$62bn in net foreign outflows from KOSPI — of which ~US$57bn is concentrated in the two largest semiconductor sto…"。
- 机械性抛售机制: 两只股票在 MSCI Korea 权重超 25% 触发多元化约束，自 2025 年 10 月底以来产生约 $69bn 强制抛售[1]H-Cap · 05-24"The ~US$62bn in net foreign outflows from KOSPI — of which ~US$57bn is concentrated in the two largest semiconductor sto…"。权重每增 1% 可能再触发 ~$2bn 流出[1]H-Cap · 05-24"The ~US$62bn in net foreign outflows from KOSPI — of which ~US$57bn is concentrated in the two largest semiconductor sto…"。
CPU TAM 预期 ⟪LINK22⟫
CPU TAM 预期不断翻倍，DRAM 增速面临重估 但受限于 WFE 产能
- TAM 预期三连跳: AMD $60B (18% CAGR) → $120B (35% CAGR) → Nvidia 本周 $200B (50% CAGR)[2]n · 05-24"One quarter ago: AMD said CPU TAM could reach $60B by 2030, or 18% CAGR. One month ago: AMD/Arm double the number to $12…"。
- DRAM 连带效应: 单核 DRAM 从 4GB 升至 16-32GB + CPU TAM 50% CAGR → DRAM 约 40% 的 CAGR 预期将被重估[2]n · 05-24"One quarter ago: AMD said CPU TAM could reach $60B by 2030, or 18% CAGR. One month ago: AMD/Arm double the number to $12…"。
- 产能约束反驳: UBS 分析师 Arcuri 认为受 WFE (晶圆制造设备) 约束，超过 $200B 的预期不切实际[3]TMT Breakout · 05-24"I believe Arcuri at UBS has said anything more than $200b unrealistic given wfe constraints"。
华为技术突破 ⟪LINK23⟫
华为号称绕开先进光刻机，群内倾向认为是混合键合而非利空 ASML 甚至被视为政治宣传
- 混合键合路径: 群友指出华为可能通过混合键合 (hybrid bonding) 缩短差距，而非在光刻设备上竞争，因此不利空 ASML，反而利好 ASMPT 等先进封装设备商[4]Jukan · 05-25"It seems like they are trying to achieve this through hybrid bonding, rather than through lithography equipment that com…"[5]Terminal Junkie · 05-25"Asmpt!"[6]Mimimi · 05-25"I don’t think it’s negative for ASML. It’s better for HW to have a credible roadmap and to keep pushing chip innovation …"。
- 政治宣传嫌疑: 多位群友认为该消息是“宣传”或“假的”[7]Bessents Burner · 05-25"Propaganda until proven otherwise"[8]MyNameIsJeff · 05-25"It’s fake"，指出中国此前一直在游说减少半导体设备出口管制，说明仍需西方工具[9]MyNameIsJeff · 05-25"The entire pre Xi POTUS media cycle was China asking for less export controls on semicap"[10]MyNameIsJeff · 05-25"Gee why would that be if they don't want/need western tools"。