timwillems85

8 atoms · 跨 1 天 · 首见 2026-05-24 · 最近 2026-05-24

三色: 🟦 fact 0 · 🟥 take 8 · stance ▲0/▼0/◆8

来源: X 8

时态: fresh:8

标签: 好观点:8

叙事 (narrative) (8)

• 2026-05-24 · 观点：德国汽车出口下滑在2022年中国冲击前就已开始
  Doesn’t the fact that exports started declining well *before* china’s takeoff suggest there are other factors at play here, notably VW’s diesel emissions scandal (which also affected the reputation of other German brands)?
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: date=2026-05-24
• 2026-05-24 · 观点：欧元区失业率处于历史低位，表明供给侧问题
  euro area unemployment is at an all-time low (in spite of the energy shocks!) while inflation is high. This points to supply-side issues, which would have been worse absent foreign supply via imports
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: date=2026-05-24
• 2026-05-24 · 观点：关税和欧盟产业政策会导致通胀更高货币政策更紧
  a counterfactual with tariffs and/or large-scale EU IP (which comes with fiscal costs) inflation would have been much higher, and monetary policy tighter — undoing the apparent advantages of such policies
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: date=2026-05-24
• 2026-05-24 · 观点：德国汽车业受柴油门集体伤害，欧盟整体增长后GFC弱
  the German car sector (collectively hurt by diesel-gate) and the EU at large. EU growth has been weak post-GFC.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: date=2026-05-24
• 2026-05-24 · 观点：高端德国汽车可与中国廉价车互补
  Entirely possible that a (higher end) German car can be a complement to a cheap CH car for two-car households — with the cheaper CH car leaving more $ for (say) a BMW as the main car
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: date=2026-05-24
• 2026-05-24 · 观点：高盛图表基于结果分类，有遗漏变量问题
  Yes it looks compelling but isn’t imho b/c it conditions on an outcome (the classification is on post-2021 outturns). Also, many omitted variables. High-exp industries suffered more from covid while it also happens to be the case that high-exp industries are more energy intensive
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: date=2026-05-24
• 2026-05-24 · 观点：难以忽略混杂因素容易高估中国冲击规模
  Am broadly on board with European (esp German) exports having softened due to CH but (i) I think it’s easy to overestimate magnitudes by neglecting confounders and (ii) unclear what it means for welfare.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: date=2026-05-24
• 2026-05-24 · 观点：欧盟不应仅因保护德国制造业而制定贸易政策
  Should EU policies solely be set to protect German manufacturing -- esp given its own energy policy (first long on russia+phasing out nuclear)?
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: date=2026-05-24

时间轴 (近 20)

• 2026-05-24 · narrative · 观点：德国汽车出口下滑在2022年中国冲击前就已开始 · → daily
• 2026-05-24 · narrative · 观点：欧元区失业率处于历史低位，表明供给侧问题 · → daily
• 2026-05-24 · narrative · 观点：关税和欧盟产业政策会导致通胀更高货币政策更紧 · → daily
• 2026-05-24 · narrative · 观点：德国汽车业受柴油门集体伤害，欧盟整体增长后GFC弱 · → daily
• 2026-05-24 · narrative · 观点：高端德国汽车可与中国廉价车互补 · → daily
• 2026-05-24 · narrative · 观点：高盛图表基于结果分类，有遗漏变量问题 · → daily
• 2026-05-24 · narrative · 观点：难以忽略混杂因素容易高估中国冲击规模 · → daily
• 2026-05-24 · narrative · 观点：欧盟不应仅因保护德国制造业而制定贸易政策 · → daily

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