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Intel CPU 业务好转终获市场认可；原油市场实物与纸面脱节，股市无视宏观风险强劲反弹

2026-04-02 周四 (ET) · 主帖 133 / 回复 61
以下部分引用 AI 总结，现阶段 AI 仍然有幻觉。请以内容的原文为准。
一些重点
  1. Intel 情绪反转Apollo 交易及 CFO 发言确认 CPU 业务好转，市场开始计入预期
  2. AI 算力供给SA 称至 2026 年产能已订满，大厂续签 H100 阻断现货回流
  3. AI 巨头 M&AOpenAI 买播客被群嘲，Anthropic 买生物 AI 获赞
  4. 原油实物 vs 纸面实物溢价达 18 年新高，股市却无视油价飙升强劲反弹
  5. 霍尔木兹海峡伊朗抛出过路费方案，市场视其为“漫天要价”的缓兵之计

1 科技主线：Intel 迎来重估，AI 算力供给持续锁死

Intel 情绪反转 ⟪LINK22⟫

Apollo 交易落地叠加 CFO 喊话，市场终于听进去了 CPU 业务好转提供底气，估值修复空间大

  • Apollo 交易确认财务改善: 能够回购股份意味着财务状况远好于一年前，比私募股权更有信心 [1]Tae Kim · 04-02"i think the intel / apollo deal was clear sign intel financial position and future prospects better than private equity.…"。
  • 服务器 CPU 能见度提升: CFO 透露正与 Hyperscalers 洽谈 3-5 年新约，打破了“Intel 不行了”的旧思维定势 [2]Tae Kim · 04-02"yes better visibility. intel cfo on record they are talking new 3-5 year deals for server CPUs with hyperscalers. if tha…"。
  • 代工与 CPU 飞轮效应: 内部 CPU 业务好转 → 为代工业务提供急需的规模和体量支撑 [3]Tae Kim · 04-02"CPU biz improving is a feedback loop for Foundry biz. Foundry needs internal intel to do better for scale/volume. both n…"。

对 PM 来说 = 市场预期极低，任何边际改善都能驱动多重扩张 不再定价“最坏情况”（14A 失败/持续失份额）

AI 算力供给锁死 ⟪LINK23⟫

至 2026 年底新增产能已订满，现货市场无卡可捡

  • 大厂续约阻断回流: AI 实验室选择续约 4 年（至 2028）而非让 H100/H200 租约到期，主动阻止算力流回现货市场 [4]TrueAlpha · 04-03"SA ""*The supply crunch is structural, not temporary* Market-wide, all capacity coming online until August to September …"。

AI 巨头 M&A 对比 ⟪LINK24⟫

OpenAI 买播客被群嘲，Anthropic 买生物 AI 获赞

  • OpenAI 的奇葩收购: 斥资“数亿美元”收购科技播客 TBPN，被群友吐槽“除了正事什么都花钱” [5]Akh · 04-02"Holy shit, OpenAI paid 'low hundreds of millions' for TBPN per FT... that's a lot" [6]Randy Marsh · 04-02"Sama spends money everything except things that actually fking matter"。
  • Anthropic 的务实扩张: 4 亿美元股票收购成立仅 8 个月的 Coefficient Bio，发力医疗生命科学领域，被认为是“好的 M&A 范本” [7]Akh · 04-03"Breaking: Newcomer: Anthropic has quietly purchased a Dimension-backed stealth startup called Coefficient Bio in a deal …" [8]Randy Marsh · 04-03"See, this is what good M&A looks like"。

2 宏观与地缘：原油实物与纸面脱节，股市无视风险

原油实物 vs 纸面 ⟪LINK25⟫

实物原油溢价创 18 年新高，股市却在交易“总会结束的” 长久期资产交易者忽视了物理世界的硬约束

  • 物理约束无法被“看穿”: 实物油价高出纸面 $17-25，即使海峡立刻开放，恢复 10mbd 的流量也需要数月时间（工程/保险/先发问题） [9]Arun Dhar · 04-02"While I suspect we've hit our daily quota of Iran market-chatter for the day, forgive me for one more. It is somewhat am…" [10]Arun Dhar · 04-02"Physical oil market very rational. Paper oil market has gravity (convergence) to fight. Equities highly narrative driven…"。
  • 股市的“叙事驱动”盲区: 股市无视油价飙升 10% 强劲反弹 + 买入非必需消费品 = 盲目相信“不可能世界末日，总会解决” [11]DRL · 04-02"It's pretty funny how market is bidding consumer discretionary stocks on a day when oil is up 10%" [9]Arun Dhar · 04-02"While I suspect we've hit our daily quota of Iran market-chatter for the day, forgive me for one more. It is somewhat am…"。
  • 下游通胀传导不可避免: 5 周的封锁已消耗缓冲库存，即使达成协议，商品通胀及下游影响（如化肥）也已成定局 [12]John · 04-02"It's too late for a toll. ~5 weeks have passed. Buffers depleting. 1,000 ships used to transit daily. We are not going t…" [9]Arun Dhar · 04-02"While I suspect we've hit our daily quota of Iran market-chatter for the day, forgive me for one more. It is somewhat am…"。

对 PM 来说 = 市场定价了利率冲击，但完全没有定价增长冲击 当前 SPX 6400 点的水平未反映任何实体经济受损的预期

‍ 伊朗的“过路费”方案 ⟪LINK26⟫

伊朗借阿曼抛出通航协议，市场视其为缓兵之计 沙特等国不会买账，僵局难破

  • 漫天要价的安全保证: 伊朗试图通过收取过路费来换取美以不攻击的保证，这被视为“拖延战术”（Operation SlowPlay） [13]Arun Dhar · 04-02"Their security guarantee is their ability to disrupt SoH. It's a bs ask by them. They know it. Operation SlowPlay."。
  • 盟友不接受: 阿联酋直斥其为“海盗行为”，沙特宁愿花两倍价格走延布港也不会交过路费 [14]Akh · 04-02"An Emirati minister says Iran’s attempt to impose transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz amounts to “piracy.” - Al Arabiya" [15]Arun Dhar · 04-02"Ya Toll system to come KSA won't pay, they’d rather ship 70% of the oil at 2x the price via Yanbu If IRGC tells Houthis …"。