Strait of Hormuz

489 atoms · 跨 77 天 · 首见 2026-04-02 · 最近 2026-07-02

三色: 🟦 fact 436 · 🟥 take 53 · stance ▲43/▼140/◆155

叙事状态: 🍂 fading (退潮) · 💤 沉寂 · 策展近14d 0 atom · 🐦 X 近14d 23

状态只算低频策展源 (群/卖方); X firehose 仅作背景音量

来源: 群 6 · X 483

时态: fresh:465 · aging:19 · stale:5

标签: 好信源:370 · 好数字:97 · 好观点:55 · 好思考:15 · 好问题:3

别名 (合并): STRAIT OF HORMUZ · 霍尔木兹海峡

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📄 广泛报道的事实 · 27 个

💢 核心分歧 (3 轴)

1. 霍尔木兹海峡封锁有效性

*topic: 地缘政治/供给产能/能源/地缘风险/监管政策 · 29 bull vs 90 bear*

🟢 bullish 侧:

• <a id="atom-5f7877d3ad3dd337"></a>2026-05-05 X·@FirstSquawk · US ability to operate · 地缘政治
  HEGSETH: IRAN HAS NO CONTROL OVER STRAIT, US CAN OPEN STRAIT OF HORMUZ WITHOUT ENTERING IRANIAN AIRSPACE OR WATERS, MANY MORE SHIPS READY TO PASS THROUGH STRAIT.
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=US can open without entering Iranian airspace or waters
• <a id="atom-34dd0d85669d1d0f"></a>2026-05-06 X·@DeItaone · restrictions loosening · 地缘政治
  Both: Loosen Strait of Hormuz restrictions.
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=eased
• <a id="atom-3b206f5537f79d2d"></a>2026-05-06 X·@FirstSquawk · reopening status · 地缘政治/地缘政治
  PAKISTANI SOURCES: THE DRAFT AGREEMENT INCLUDES REOPENING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ TO INTERNATIONAL NAVIGATION
  tags: 好信源·好观点 · → daily
  value: date=future
• <a id="atom-b8c0df190da53881"></a>2026-05-07 X·@financialjuice · reopening status · 地缘政治
  Intensive communications to gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The coming hours will witness a breakthrough in the situation of the ships stuck in the strait
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: date=coming hours
• <a id="atom-6a920ef61db9191e"></a>2026-05-15 X·@zerohedge · should be reopened · 地缘政治
  *CHINA: STRAIT OF HORMUZ SHOULD BE REOPENED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=as soon as possible

🔴 bearish 侧:

• <a id="atom-b3f04e72ca073860"></a>2026-04-16 X·@FirstSquawk · uncertainty · 地缘政治/供应链
  UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ CONTINUE TO KEEP INFLATION RISKS AND MARKET VOLATILITY ELEVATED
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=elevated
• <a id="atom-fea8a1a16de98ed0"></a>2026-04-18 X·@DeItaone · 航运重启状态 · 地缘政治/供应链
  Shipping briefly resumed in the Strait of Hormuz Saturday before Iran warned the route was closed, triggering U-turns.
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: date=2026-04-18 · direction=暂停
  [图: 霍尔木兹海峡船舶航行轨迹与掉头情况航线图]
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-25b3ba30014847fb"></a>2026-04-18 X·@FirstSquawk · closure_status · 地缘政治 +同日2条
  Closure of the Strait of Hormuz as of this afternoon until the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: date=2026-04-18
• <a id="atom-9997a49e38fac276"></a>2026-04-19 X·@FirstSquawk · 重新关闭 · 地缘政治 +同日1条
  reclosure of the Strait of Hormuz
  tags: 好问题 · → daily
• <a id="atom-823bdf60532b7dd9"></a>2026-04-26 X·@FirstSquawk · flow status · 地缘政治
  We will not return the Strait of Hormuz to its previous state under any circumstances because this is the Leader of the Revolution's decision
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=not returned to previous state · date=future

2. 通行量恢复速度

*topic: 航运流量/供给产能 · 1 bull vs 17 bear*

🟢 bullish 侧:

• <a id="atom-142b81690fd04595"></a>2026-05-11 X·@FirstSquawk [老化中] · 供应中断预期 · 地缘政治/供给产能
  CONCERNS THAT DISRUPTIONS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ COULD PERSIST AND KEEP GLOBAL ENERGY SUPPLIES TIGHT
  tags: 好思考 · → daily

🔴 bearish 侧:

• <a id="atom-af3be8ff9c7156c0"></a>2026-04-05 群 · 伊朗许可下的船只通行量 · 航运流量/地缘冲突
  Fars 通讯社首次报道，过去 24 小时有 15 艘船只经伊朗许可通过海峡，但流量仍比袭击前低约 90%
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
• <a id="atom-4b46c86bbfca4bdf"></a>2026-04-05 群 · CORBU 3月20日阈值触发 · 地缘冲突/航运流量
  CORBU's March 20 threshold: if by April 4 the Strait remained effectively closed with no real progress → all markets reprice. That threshold has essentially been triggered.
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-0ef673603984e98c"></a>2026-04-19 X·@DanielNenni [老化中] · effective blockade from U.S.-Iran conflict · 地缘政治/供给产能
  The effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict, has created a significant supply chain crisis for the semiconductor industry, both logic (#AI) and memory.
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-e0cadf8f0b33c5bb"></a>2026-04-26 X·@FirstSquawk · 关闭状态 · 地缘政治/供给产能
  STALLED US-IRAN PEACE TALKS KEPT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ CLOSED
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: date=2026-04-27
• <a id="atom-a0638febc26b99a1"></a>2026-04-27 X·@financialjuice · 状态 · 地缘政治/供给产能
  Germany's Merz on Iran War: Strait of Hormuz is partially mined.
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=partial_mined

3. 油价中断影响

*topic: 价格动态/能源 · 13 bull vs 31 bear*

🟢 bullish 侧:

• <a id="atom-29fceea46b44347e"></a>2026-04-28 X·@DeItaone · shipping disruption status · 地缘政治/价格动态
  Strait has been largely shut since late February, disrupting global oil flows and pushing up fuel prices
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=largely shut since late February · date=late February 2026
• <a id="atom-ed5c9b85d81a253a"></a>2026-05-20 X·@RYANHINGSHING · 封锁对石油价格的影响 · 价格动态
  如果霍爾木茲海峽不解封，石油價格有機會突破$150
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=突破$150 · direction=up
• <a id="atom-52a6cafdc21a8e88"></a>2026-05-23 X·@StockSavvyShay · 重新开放状态 · 地缘政治/能源
  The deal would reportedly reopen the Strait of Hormuz which is a major step toward easing the regional energy shock.
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-8abe4376266024f4"></a>2026-05-23 X·@zerohedge · 将开放 · 能源/地缘政治
  STRAIT OF HORMUZ WILL BE OPENED
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-ebadcca5b7f2cca7"></a>2026-05-23 X·@KobeissiLetter · reopening status · 能源
  Strait of Hormuz reopened for the 60-day period
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: date=60-day period

🔴 bearish 侧:

• <a id="atom-20de51eb7779124a"></a>2026-04-17 X·@financialjuice [老化中] · 状态 · 地缘政治/能源
  As the blockade continues, the Strait of Hormuz will not remain open.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=关闭
• <a id="atom-6cb0e385ed45b02f"></a>2026-04-18 X·@FirstSquawk · crisis escalation · 地缘政治/能源
  Strait of Hormuz crisis escalates after both sides narrow their differences regarding Iran's uranium enrichment and its stockpile
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: qty= · date=2026-04-18
• <a id="atom-b62ca295d7f053db"></a>2026-04-19 X·@FirstSquawk · risks of further maritime clashes and potential disruption to a vital global oil route sharply escalated · 地缘政治/能源 +同日1条
  SHARPLY ESCALATING RISKS OF FURTHER MARITIME CLASHES AND POTENTIAL DISRUPTION TO A VITAL GLOBAL OIL ROUTE
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-a8a44d72d3542c22"></a>2026-04-27 X·@FirstSquawk [老化中] · 被视为经济核武器 · 地缘政治/能源
  Iran is effectively treating the Strait of Hormuz as an 'economic nuclear weapon' targeting the global economy.
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-21e140b2768eda35"></a>2026-05-01 X·@FirstSquawk · reopening is a substantive issue · 地缘政治/能源
  The two sides remain far apart, however, on the substantive issues of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=far apart

🔗 因果传导 (causal map)

*Strait of Hormuz 在产业链上的传导关系. 边是群里/卖方陈述的因果 (非 AI 推断), 数字 = 几条 atom 支撑. 点 atom 溯源.*

↓ 下游·近期陈述 (3)

• 🔴 原油供应 · 供给挤压 · 2 次陈述
  TANKER TRAFFIC THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ REMAINED BELOW NORMAL FOLLOWING RECENT ATTACKS
• 🔴 global shipping · 政策影响 · 1 次陈述
  The proposal has raised concerns among Western and Gulf nations, which fear joint management with Iran could threaten fr
• 🔴 energy prices · 成本传导 · 1 次陈述
  The proposal has raised concerns among Western and Gulf nations, which fear joint management with Iran could threaten fr

↑ 上游·近期陈述 (1)

• 🔴 伊朗局势 · 供给挤压 · 1 次陈述
  以色列继续轰炸引发伊朗反弹，宣称停火失效并威胁封锁霍尔木兹海峡。

🔮 前瞻触发器 (forward triggers)

*这些 atom 指向可能 reprice 的前瞻事件 (无精确日期, 仅类型). 配合上面叙事状态看「上膛」程度.*

宏观 (2 · ▲0/▼2)

• 🔴 2026-04-18 · 被伊朗封锁
  伊朗再次封锁霍尔木兹海峡
• 🔴 2026-04-05 · CORBU 3月20日阈值触发
  CORBU's March 20 threshold: if by April 4 the Strait remained effectively closed with no real progress → all markets reprice. That threshold

供需拐点 (1 · ▲0/▼1)

• 🔴 2026-04-02 · 每日 1000 艘船的流量中断
  霍尔木兹海峡每天 1000 艘船的流量中断

🟦 客观事实 (facts) (30)

• <a id="atom-268ebeb0bc2d9170"></a>🟦 2026-07-01 X·@KobeissiLetter ⭐ · 商业航运量 · 价格动态
  Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has surged to 10 million barrels of crude oil per day, per Bloomberg.
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=10 million barrels per day · date=2026-07-01
• <a id="atom-ff054a254f76b2db"></a>🟦 2026-07-01 X·@KobeissiLetter ⭐ · 石油运输量 与战前水平比较 · 价格动态
  Oil volumes through the Strait of Hormuz still stand ~50% below pre-war levels
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=~50% below pre-war levels
• <a id="atom-d499bd8d5788d2d7"></a>🟦 2026-06-26 X·@zerohedge ⭐ · traffic slows after attack on ship · 地缘政治
  Traffic through Strait of Hormuz slows after attack on ship: RTRS
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-6411a8683dbd9ca1"></a>🟦 2026-06-24 X·@cnfinancewatch · 重新开放商船通行量回升 · 地缘政治
  霍尔木兹海峡商船通行量回升至日均34艘以上，油价跌至战前最低。
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=日均34艘以上
• <a id="atom-35a8e6e04d3b5910"></a>🟦 2026-05-28 X·@AIStockSavvy · commercial vessel transits · 地缘政治/出货量
  Bloomberg AIS data showed only six transits in both directions that day, including a Turkish Suezmax entering the Persian Gulf to load.
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=6 · date=2026-05-27
• <a id="atom-bc514d58b2a7c3d0"></a>🟦 2026-05-07 X·@AIStockSavvy · 航运通行量周数据 · 供给产能/地缘政治
  Shipping traffic has collapsed, with Lloyd’s List reporting only 40 crossings in the week to May 3 versus a prewar average of 120 daily.
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=40次 · date=截至5月3日当周
• <a id="atom-62136be35e730e05"></a>🟦 2026-05-02 X·@InsiderWire · 出现速度船只 · 地缘政治/安全事故
  Approximately 40 Iranian speedboats spotted in the Strait of Hormuz tonight, possibly laying mines.
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=40 · direction=approximately
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-8373ea9754a0b7db"></a>🟦 2026-04-17 X·@hungjng69679118 · 航运追踪显示船只掉头折返 · 地缘政治/航运
  航运追踪数据显示，当地时间周五晚间几乎所有试图通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只都已掉头折返。
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-fe333f329fccca69"></a>🟦 2026-04-17 X·@hungjng69679118 · 科勒普数据显示24小时通过船只数量 · 地缘政治/航运
  科勒普数据显示，在过去24小时内，有24艘船只通过霍尔木兹海峡。
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=24
• <a id="atom-69c655b9a11b3ff7"></a>🟦 2026-04-17 X·@araghchi · 通行状态 对商业船只 · 地缘政治/供应链
  the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: date=2026-04-17
• <a id="atom-3d591961e7d05cd4"></a>🟦 2026-04-06 群 · 过境船舶数量变化 · 通行量/暗船队
  霍尔木兹海峡通行量增加，包括暗船队
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
• <a id="atom-4b46c86bbfca4bdf"></a>🟦 2026-04-05 群 · CORBU 3月20日阈值触发 · 地缘冲突/航运流量
  CORBU's March 20 threshold: if by April 4 the Strait remained effectively closed with no real progress → all markets reprice. That threshold has essentially been triggered.
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-15a43822f80f22f5"></a>🟦 2026-06-30 X·@DrNHJ · 船舶通行量 · 地缘政治
  월요일(29일) 기준 원유 및 액화천연가스(LNG) 운반선, 벌크선 등을 포함한 약 24척의 화물선이 양방향으로 호르무즈 해협을 통과했습니다
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=约24艘 · date=2026-06-29
• <a id="atom-69143f03b8ac2281"></a>🟦 2026-06-30 X·@DrNHJ · 通行量趋势 · 地缘政治
  최근 발생한 이란의 선박 공격 이후 처음으로 호르무즈 해협의 선박 통항량이 다시 증가하고 있습니다
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: direction=增加
• <a id="atom-d9fa5da88c4c9b00"></a>🟦 2026-06-02 X·@zerohedge · 船只通行量 · 出货量
  Iran's IRGC said 24 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the last 24 hours after obtaining permission from Iran, Nour News reported.
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=24 ships · date=last 24 hours
• <a id="atom-b5541db47da1d56c"></a>🟦 2026-05-22 X·@zerohedge · ship exit count · 地缘政治/供给产能
  Iran Says 35 Ships Exited Strait Of Hormuz
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=35 · date=2026-05-22
• <a id="atom-2f5d14a02d22a936"></a>🟦 2026-05-14 X·@jukan05 · disruption has knocked out more than 30% of global sulfur supply · 地缘政治/供应链
  The Strait of Hormuz disruption has knocked out more than 30% of global sulfur supply, sending sulfuric acid prices sharply higher and dragging AHF prices up in turn.
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=30%
• <a id="atom-0797bf4fb9903659"></a>🟦 2026-05-12 X·@PeterBerezinBCA · 2026年最新贸易量骤降值 · 价格动态
  霍尔木兹海峡2026年最新骤降值: 接近 0.1 Mn Tonnes
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=0.1 Mn Tonnes · date=2026
  [图: 显示曼德海峡（红海）与霍尔木兹海峡贸易货运量变化趋势的折线图 — 曼德海峡2024年低谷贸易量: 约 1.0 Mn Tonnes; 霍尔木兹海峡2026年最新骤降值: 接近 0.1 Mn Tonnes; 曼德海峡2023年峰值贸易量: 约 3.7 Mn Tonnes; 霍尔木兹海峡历史高位水平: 约 4.4 Mn Tonnes]
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-ff59da4972c93cda"></a>🟦 2026-05-12 X·@PeterBerezinBCA · 历史高位水平 · 价格动态
  霍尔木兹海峡历史高位水平: 约 4.4 Mn Tonnes
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=4.4 Mn Tonnes · date=historical peak
  [图: 显示曼德海峡（红海）与霍尔木兹海峡贸易货运量变化趋势的折线图 — 曼德海峡2024年低谷贸易量: 约 1.0 Mn Tonnes; 霍尔木兹海峡2026年最新骤降值: 接近 0.1 Mn Tonnes; 曼德海峡2023年峰值贸易量: 约 3.7 Mn Tonnes; 霍尔木兹海峡历史高位水平: 约 4.4 Mn Tonnes]
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-09689151527ea53e"></a>🟦 2026-04-19 X·@KobeissiLetter · zero oil tankers passed · 地缘政治
  BREAKING: New data shows that zero oil tankers have passed through the Strait of Hormuz today.
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
• <a id="atom-11980d09a515e6f9"></a>🟦 2026-06-30 X·@zerohedge · 管理权主张 · 地缘政治/能源
  IRAN'S BAGHAEI SAYS TEHRAN IS DETERMINED TO MAINTAIN ITS RIGHT OVER THE MANAGEMENT OF STRAIT OF HORMUZ
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-41b4c8f4c7c40937"></a>🟦 2026-06-29 X·@KobeissiLetter · 关闭状态 · 地缘政治
  This surge was driven by the Iran War, amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-32c8c174db253bc2"></a>🟦 2026-06-25 X·@KobeissiLetter · 攻击事件 · 地缘政治
  伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡攻击了一艘新加坡籍货船
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=1艘新加坡籍货船 · date=2026-06-25
• <a id="atom-d4fcbb6f80df7f1e"></a>🟦 2026-06-24 X·@KobeissiLetter · 伊朗宣称不收取船舶通行费用 · 地缘政治
  Iran has informed the US that there are no tolls, insurance costs, or other charges being 'sought or received by Iran' on ships traveling through the Strait of Hormuz.
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-802cbf694ef82629"></a>🟦 2026-06-22 X·@cnfinancewatch · 再关闭 · 地缘政治
  霍尔木兹海峡再关闭：伊朗宣布再次关闭霍尔木兹海峡
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-36642139cef70a9d"></a>🟦 2026-06-20 X·@KobeissiLetter · 关闭状态 · 地缘政治/能源
  BREAKING: Iran's top joint military command announces that the Strait of Hormuz is now closed due to US and Israeli "violations" of the Memorandum of Understanding.
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=closed · date=2026-06-20
• <a id="atom-7375d3eb3a9b3933"></a>🟦 2026-06-20 X·@zerohedge · status · 地缘政治
  IRAN SAYS STRAIT OF HORMUZ HAS BEEN CLOSED: TASNIM
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: status=closed
• <a id="atom-9cb3ab57ca53f9d2"></a>🟦 2026-06-20 X·@KobeissiLetter · closure status · 地缘政治/能源
  Iran's top joint military command officially releases a statement closing the Strait of Hormuz.
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=closed
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-ed101490614a7e69"></a>🟦 2026-06-20 X·@AP · status · 地缘政治
  Iran's joint military command says that the Strait of Hormuz is closed again and cites Israeli attacks in Lebanon.
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: date=2026-06-20
• <a id="atom-046f86d65ac75eb9"></a>🟦 2026-06-20 X·@KobeissiLetter · 通行状态 · 地缘政治
  Iran's IRGC officially confirms that the Strait of Hormuz is now closed to all vessels.
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=关闭

🟥 多头 takes (bullish) (3)

• <a id="atom-52a6cafdc21a8e88"></a>🟥 2026-05-23 X·@StockSavvyShay · 重新开放状态 · 地缘政治/能源
  The deal would reportedly reopen the Strait of Hormuz which is a major step toward easing the regional energy shock.
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-6a920ef61db9191e"></a>🟥 2026-05-15 X·@zerohedge · should be reopened · 地缘政治
  *CHINA: STRAIT OF HORMUZ SHOULD BE REOPENED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=as soon as possible
• <a id="atom-ed5c9b85d81a253a"></a>🟥 2026-05-20 X·@RYANHINGSHING · 封锁对石油价格的影响 · 价格动态
  如果霍爾木茲海峽不解封，石油價格有機會突破$150
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=突破$150 · direction=up

🟥 空头 takes (bearish) (9)

• <a id="atom-902cf0398e53736e"></a>🟥 2026-05-13 X·@Techmeme · blockade disrupting global chip supply chains · 供应链/地缘政治
  How the Strait of Hormuz blockade is disrupting global chip supply chains, affecting supplies of helium, bromine, sulfur, and thinners essential to chipmaking
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=bearish
• <a id="atom-bbd17caaabe7b5ee"></a>🟥 2026-07-02 X·@zerohedge · 伊朗通行费征收被视为不可避免 · 地缘政治/能源
  Europe Capitulates, Sees Iranian Hormuz Fee Collection As 'Inevitable'
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-bf10e053839bd4f8"></a>🟥 2026-05-23 X·@AIStockSavvy · 管理归属 · 地缘政治
  Strait of Hormuz Would Remain Under Iran's Management Contrary to Trump's Announcement
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-e19f9e48895bcb16"></a>🟥 2026-05-03 群 [老旧] · 僵局焦点 · 霍尔木兹海峡/地缘风险
  SoH 才是真实博弈点，伊朗拒绝自由开放，Trump 需解决 SoH 封锁防止通胀但难向选民解释
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-0c5c94b902b13a60"></a>🟥 2026-06-24 X·@ericnuttall · 油轮流出情况 · 供给产能
  Strait OUTFLOWS are strong but the much tamer INFLOWS is what makes the situation unsustainable
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  [图: 美国商业原油库存及‘Big 3’（原油+汽油+馏分油）库存水平历史对比折线图 — 2026年第25周商业原油库存: 约410,000千桶; 2026年第25周Big 3总库存: 约735,000千桶]
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-fb43e0b93b54c7dd"></a>🟥 2026-06-09 X·@zerohedge · 重新开放可能性 · 地缘政治
  What If The Strait Of Hormuz Never Fully Reopens
  tags: 好问题 · → daily
  value: direction=never fully reopens
• <a id="atom-0ef673603984e98c"></a>🟥 2026-04-19 X·@DanielNenni [老化中] · effective blockade from U.S.-Iran conflict · 地缘政治/供给产能
  The effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict, has created a significant supply chain crisis for the semiconductor industry, both logic (#AI) and memory.
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-db6f99e04406df43"></a>🟥 2026-05-09 X·@JigarShahDC · normal traffic resumption timeline · 供应链
  normal Hormuz traffic is realistically now 2027 at the absolute earliest.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: date=2027 at the absolute earliest
• <a id="atom-c9bb68dfe9997dd3"></a>🟥 2026-05-06 X·@Glenn_Diesen [老化中] · 控制权 · 地缘政治/能源
  the Strait of Hormuz is now under Iran's control
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=获得

🟥 中性 takes (neutral) (4)

• <a id="atom-e3daed002c279dd8"></a>🟥 2026-06-02 X·@zerohedge · 停火与重新开放预期 · 地缘政治
  US President Trump told ABC News he thinks he will have an agreement with Iran to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the next week
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-d0673f2b84bbae2e"></a>🟥 2026-06-14 X·@Sino_Market · 重新开放状态 · 地缘政治/关税
  Saudi state TV reported US and Iranian delegations held an online meeting with mediators from Pakistan and Qatar in attendance. A memorandum of understanding is to be signed in the presence of Vance and Iran’s parliament speaker Ghalibaf, which, if signed, would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and allow vessels to transit without fees.
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: date=2026-06-14
  [图: 一张关于美伊地缘政治进展及其对原油市场（WTI和布伦特原油）看空影响的财经新闻卡片 — Jun 14 14:47:34 (发布时间)]
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-d93d264ba2a66b5a"></a>🟥 2026-05-07 X·@Sino_Market · ships stuck situation breakthrough expectation · 地缘政治
  ARABIC SOURCES: THE COMING HOURS WILL WITNESS A BREAKTHROUGH FOR THE SITUATION OF THE SHIPS STUCK IN THE STRAIT
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: date=COMING HOURS
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-4d2e1b4bcae8daa6"></a>🟥 2026-05-19 X·@Atomicrod · 开放假设逻辑 · 地缘政治
  So the assumption is that the Strait opens because it has to open to avert an even greater catastrophe?
  tags: 好问题 · → daily

🟦 新闻流 (squawk · 40)

⏱ 时间轴 (近 20)

• 🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · status quo rejection · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · 通行情况 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · 通行路线 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-02 · narrative · 伊朗通行费征收被视为不可避免 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-01 · fact · shipping incident · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-01 · fact · traffic · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-01 · fact · traffic · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-01 · fact · traffic volume · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-01 · fact · 商业航运量 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-01 · fact · 石油运输量 与战前水平比较 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-01 · fact · Omani-US corridor active · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-01 · narrative · 流量增加 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-06-30 · fact · 船舶通行量 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-06-30 · fact · 通行量趋势 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-06-30 · fact · 管理权主张 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-06-30 · fact · 主权归属 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-06-30 · fact · sovereignty · → daily
• 🟦 2026-06-30 · fact · proposal delivered to US · → daily
• 🟦 2026-06-29 · fact · ship traffic volume · → daily
• 🟦 2026-06-29 · fact · 讨论重新开放 · → daily

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