🟥▼受一次性因素提振 · 就业数据/趋势 The rapid increase in payrolls in March was supported by a 32K decline in the number of healthcare workers on strike, and a 44K jump in leisure and hospitality payrolls, probably the product of residu
🟥▼趋势疲软 · 就业数据/趋势 Payrolls boosted by one-time factors; the trend still looks weak.
🟥◆对伊冲突底线 · 供给底线/地缘冲突 India on the other hand IRGC won't fk with and they will get their gas and oil esp enough to support crop yields. It's a diff calculus for India and in the Armageddon scenario for Modi he'll drive a b
🟥▲反驳 NFP 滞后论 · 就业数据/美联储 I would counter to say that the jobs report is a pretty big deal. Certain members of the Fed keep jawboning 'dual sided risks' in the mandate, suggesting a precarious employment situation. In fact, em
🟥▼就业机制已失效 · 美联储/点阵图 Fed's SEP guided to a cut despite views that growth and inflation would come in higher. The qualitative element was via employment mechanism, but that tail has totally come in now.
🟥▲断供支撑能力 · 原油储备/断供能力 it nets to like -5MBD deficit if it stops getting any oil from the middle east (not the case right now) and has 1.2-1.5B SPR against that, other fuel and gas types more precarious tho, but no matter h