私人信贷

8 atoms · 跨 3 天 · 首见 2026-05-26 · 最近 2026-06-24

三色: 🟦 fact 7 · 🟥 take 1 · stance ▲0/▼6/◆2

来源: X 8

时态: fresh:8

标签: 好数字:5 · 好信源:4 · 好观点:3

叙事 (narrative) (1)

• 2026-06-24 · 市场规模
  He warns markets are underestimating potential losses from the $1.8 trillion private credit sector.
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=$1.8T · date=2026

事实 (fact) (7)

• 2026-05-30 · EBITDA addbacks 降低报告杠杆
  EBITDA addbacks—discounting “one-time expenses” to suppress debt-to-EBITDA ratios—have gotten far more generous over time, now reducing “reported leverage at issuance by roughly 1.2 turns of leverage…double what it was in 2015”
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=约1.2倍 · date=发行时
• 2026-05-30 · 上层中端市场贷款中轻契约贷款占比
  the percentage of upper-middle market loans deemed “covenant-lite” surged from 5% in 2015 to 30% as of 2025
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=30% · date=2025
• 2026-05-30 · PIK使用比例
  the percentage of companies utilizing PIK rose to 11% in 2025, up from 10.5% in 2024 and 7% in 2021
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=11% · date=2025
• 2026-05-30 · 坏PIK翻倍
  bad PIK has doubled over the past five years, which is likely masking rising default risk as companies seek debt payment relief mid deal
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
  value: date=过去五年
• 2026-05-30 · 透明度和估值标记不足
  private credit does not tend to have great transparency or rigorous valuation “marks” of their loans—this increases the chance that people will sell if they think the environment will get worse—even if actual realized losses barely change
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• 2026-05-30 · 信用周期衰退
  [We’ve] not had a credit recession in a long time, and it seems that some people assume it will never happen
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• 2026-05-26 · 债务到期分布
  2028年软件债务到期占比: ~17%; 2029年软件债务到期占比: ~18%; 2031年软件债务到期占比: ~21%; 2031年非软件债务到期占比: ~20%; 2032+年软件债务到期占比: ~19%
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=约17-21% · date=2026-2032+

时间轴 (近 20)

• 2026-06-24 · narrative · 市场规模 · → daily
• 2026-05-30 · fact · 透明度和估值标记不足 · → daily
• 2026-05-30 · fact · 信用周期衰退 · → daily
• 2026-05-30 · fact · EBITDA addbacks 降低报告杠杆 · → daily
• 2026-05-30 · fact · 上层中端市场贷款中轻契约贷款占比 · → daily
• 2026-05-30 · fact · PIK使用比例 · → daily
• 2026-05-30 · fact · 坏PIK翻倍 · → daily
• 2026-05-26 · fact · 债务到期分布 · → daily

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