亚洲投资者对 AI 和存储极度看多，怕错失共识交易 做多半导/做空软件、做多存储/做空 OEM 的交易未见衰退
共识交易拥挤: GS 销售指出，亚洲投资者害怕成为非共识，坚守共识交易：做多半导 + 做空软件，做多存储 + 做空 OEM[1]H-Cap · 04-20"Asia sales GS: Morning, I hosted some meetings with our *US TMT Specialist Sales Peter Callahan* in HK last week and he …"。
轮动建议: 建议在光模块上获利了结，转向估值更合理的云网络标的如 HPE 和 Arista[1]H-Cap · 04-20"Asia sales GS: Morning, I hosted some meetings with our *US TMT Specialist Sales Peter Callahan* in HK last week and he …"。
Opus 4.7 反馈 争论·AI 影响
Opus 4.7 的负面反馈被视为传统 SaaS 的利好 削弱了“AI 实验室将包揽一切”的预期
SaaS 喘息: 群友认为 Opus 4.7 负面反馈 → 软化了「AI 实验室包揽一切」的预期 → 传统 SaaS 有上行空间[2]Mr. Alpha · 04-20"sorry by upside meant upside to traditional SaaS on negative feedback on 4.7"。
生态看空: 也有人认为 4.7 的表现糟糕，让人想做空整个 AI 生态系统[3]Bessents Burner · 04-20"Upside? lol 4.7 makes me want to short every part of the AI ecosystem it's horrible"。
机构评级: MS 报告首选 COHR，最不看好 GLW；JPM 上周也下调了 GLW，群内对 GLW 情绪普遍悲观[4]H-Cap · 04-20"on optical, pretty boring note from MS saying COHR top pick, GLW least liked"[5]Cout47 · 04-20"Everyone so bearish on GLW"[6]Cout47 · 04-20"JPM dg GLW last week as well"。
强制收集: 8 月起，免费/标准/高级版客户的元数据（如可读性评分、任务分类）将被强制用于训练 AI 模型，客户无法退出[7]Akh · 04-19"TEAM: Unless a customer pays for the most expensive enterprise license, or the law forbids it, Atlassian is going to col…"。
AI 威慑: Palantir 认为对手不会停止开发 AI 武器，呼吁建立基于 AI 的新威慑时代，并批评对德国和日本的“战后阉割”及盲目追求多元化[8]Akh · 04-19"Palantir Manifesto: “The question is not whether A.I. weapons will be built; it is who will build them and for what purp…"。
7x EV/FCF: 如果 ZM 不再被视为零增长公司，扣除 Anthropic 股份后其倍数仅为 7x EV/FCF，具备较大上行空间[9]RI · 04-19"ZM has a lot upside if it’s not trading as 0 growth company anymore. The multiple is like 7x EV/FCF after deducting Anth…"。