以下部分引用 AI 总结，现阶段 AI 仍然有幻觉。请以内容的原文为准。
数据新鲜度群聊 07-14 ✓卖方 07-14 ✓Wrap 断档15天 ✕News 07-15 ✓X 断档12天 ✕页面生成 07-15
JPM
63 atoms · 跨 28 天 · 首见 2026-04-14 · 最近 2026-06-30
三色: 🟦 fact 33 · 🟥 take 30 · stance ▲20/▼16/◆16
叙事状态: ⚔️ contested (分歧) · ➡️ 平稳 · 策展近14d 1 atom · 🐦 X 近14d 3
状态只算低频策展源 (群/卖方); X firehose 仅作背景音量
来源: 群 3 · X 58
时态: fresh:54 · aging:5 · stale:4
标签: 好观点:25 · 好信源:23 · 好数字:23 · 好思考:3
🧭 拥挤度 (一人一票): ▲ 5 位作者 (KOL4 · 卖方1) + 群 2 条 vs ▼ 5 位作者 (KOL5) + 群 1 条
⚖️ 多头 4/5 来自KOL
💢 核心分歧 (4 轴)
1. AI资本开支扩张 vs 回报不确定性
*topic: 资本开支/数据中心算力/盈利能力/竞争格局 · 4 bull vs 3 bear*
🟢 bullish 侧:
- <a id="atom-4cd53dcb0d50c933"></a>2026-05-27
X·@jukan05 · 预测AI超级周期带动HBM和内存需求激增 · 订单需求/数据中心算力
_JPM: Another beneficiary of the AI cycle is European luxury stocks
The report argues that the AI supercycle has driven a surge in HBM and memory demand, sharply improving earnings expectations for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix._
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: qty= · date=
[图: 摩根大通预测的各大欧洲奢侈品牌对韩国市场的销售额敞口比例图表 — Moncler韩国销售敞口: 12%; Prada韩国销售敞口: 12%; Burberry韩国销售敞口: 9%; Hermes韩国销售敞口: 9%; Brunello Cucinelli韩国销售敞口: 3%]
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-bf636cb586bc2835"></a>2026-06-16
X·@matthew_sigel · power estimates raise · 资本开支/数据中心算力 +同日1条
JPM raises power estimates by 13%
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: qty=13%
[图: 摩根大通关于AI资本支出与数据中心债务融资分析的卖方研究报告截图 — AI/数据中心相关发行额: 超过3000亿美元]
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-dd3dd416fb53a274"></a>2026-05-17
X·@beauty_oe · AI瓶颈股将多年走强 · 竞争格局
物理的ボトルネック企業は数年強いとの見解。
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: date=未来数年
📷 原图
🔴 bearish 侧:
- <a id="atom-f2c6d506ebe3d0f1"></a>2026-05-06
X·@wallstengine [老化中] · AI token costs impact on internet profits · 盈利能力 +同日1条
JPM on AI token costs: “Eating Internet Profits Alive.”
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: direction=negative
- <a id="atom-7c17993d443cd50a"></a>2026-06-25
X·@trevornoren · 观点: 未来许多 token 消耗来自小模型而非前沿模型 · 技术路线/竞争格局
JPM: "Many tokens consumed in the future may not come from frontier models but from smaller open models that are up to the tasks."
tags: 好信源 · → daily
[图: 一张展示不同AI模型运行成本与智能指数评分对比的散点图，横轴为运行成本（对数坐标，美元），纵轴为综合基准评分 — 绿色象限最低评分阈值: 30; 绿色象限最高成本阈值: 约 $500.00; 最高评分模型 (Claude Fable 5): 约 58; 横轴最大成本标尺: $10,000.00; 横轴最小成本标尺: $10.00]
📷 原图
展开 1 条中性
- <a id="atom-955f1b03fd24880d"></a>2026-06-29
X·@zerohedge · 报告主题 · 资本开支/订单需求
Entering The Mega Investment Era: JPM Breaks Down South Korea's Plan To Double Memory-Chip Production
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty= · date=2026-06-29
2. 韩国半导体扩产杠杆 vs 需求风险
*topic: 评级目标价/供给产能/订单需求 · 6 bull vs 2 bear*
🟢 bullish 侧:
- <a id="atom-2c13952c27489cc0"></a>2026-05-10
X·@SamRo · KOSPI base case target · 评级目标价 +同日1条
we raise our base/bull/bear case KOSPI targets to 9,000/10,000/6,000
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=9000 · date=not specified
- <a id="atom-fc2cacaec956fbb8"></a>2026-06-03
X·@EndTesla · Broadcom 2027 revenue estimate · 营收/评级目标价
JPM at $120bn
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$120bn · date=2027
- <a id="atom-3a7879ac2fc2d363"></a>2026-06-16
X·@matthew_sigel · capacity growth forecast · 供给产能/数据中心算力
Now expects 138GW of capacity growth through 2030, up from 122 GW in prior forecast
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=138GW · date=through 2030
[图: 摩根大通关于AI资本支出与数据中心债务融资分析的卖方研究报告截图 — AI/数据中心相关发行额: 超过3000亿美元]
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-f8af4b4f22b19858"></a>2026-06-24
X·@jukan05 · KOSPI bull-case target · 评级目标价 +同日1条
JPM RAISES ITS KOSPI BULL-CASE TARGET TO 15,000 POINTS.
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=15000 · unit=points
📷 原图
🔴 bearish 侧:
- <a id="atom-6c365aef8aa7fbd0"></a>2026-05-10
X·@SamRo · KOSPI bear case target · 评级目标价
we raise our base/bull/bear case KOSPI targets to 9,000/10,000/6,000
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=6000 · date=not specified
- <a id="atom-0b41a932e150b305"></a>2026-06-24
X·@jukan05 · KOSPI bear-case target · 评级目标价
JPM also raised its base-case and bear-case targets to 12,500 points and 8,000 points, respectively.
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=8000 · unit=points
📷 原图
3. CEO 乐观管理言论 vs 风险警示
*topic: 管理层表态/仓位情绪 · 5 bull vs 4 bear*
🟢 bullish 侧:
- <a id="atom-94e6c78c093bd14b"></a>2026-04-30
X·@aleabitoreddit [老化中] · military contractor · 仓位情绪
I didn’t know JPM was a military contractor too with those cannons.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
- <a id="atom-101da87bba5e75f4"></a>2026-05-06
X·@zerohedge · 战术立场 · 仓位情绪
they turned bullish a month ago
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: direction=从看跌转为看涨
- <a id="atom-22f948f6389c33eb"></a>2026-05-10
X·@SamRo [老旧] · Korea preferred market in region · 仓位情绪
Korea remains our most preferred market in the region
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: direction=neutral
- <a id="atom-f07f1af5884210c4"></a>2026-05-17
X·@beauty_oe · 建议在AIcapex担忧时买入大型科技股 · 仓位情绪
メガテックについても、今のcapex懸念が出てるタイミングで拾うのはアリだとパラさん。
tags: 好观点 · → daily
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-fc7971d75a6074f9"></a>2026-05-29
X·@TheTranscript_ · CEO 表态 · 管理层表态
$JPM CEO this week: Don't outsource growth
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: direction=反对外包增长
🔴 bearish 侧:
- <a id="atom-cf90dde8dac188af"></a>2026-05-05
X·@zerohedge [老化中] · exposure_to_El_Paso_SPV · 仓位情绪
don't want any piece of the deal, so they are scrambling to offload all exposure to the market
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: direction=降低
- <a id="atom-c53b0efef07d59fe"></a>2026-05-29
X·@TheTranscript_ [老旧] · CEO 评价资产价格 · 股价估值/管理层表态
$JPM CEO this week: "I think asset prices are high, including JPMorgan stock. I'm not that fond of buying stock at these prices, or companies. We're quite patient with capital. It's not burning a hole in our pocket at all. It's just there for a while, no problem."
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: direction=high
- <a id="atom-607993450d3f61db"></a>2026-06-21
X·@cnfinancewatch · 出现大单主动卖出 · 仓位情绪
JPM出现大单主动卖出（机构减配）
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: date=周五
- <a id="atom-9d2b8b91bd5cda50"></a>2026-06-29
X·@TheTranscript_ · CEO 对网络风险的评估 · 管理层表态/技术路线
$JPM JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon: "Cyber is our biggest risk made worse by AI... I didn't know how much worse by AI. It's, like, really worse."
tags: 好信源·好观点 · → daily
value: direction=bearish
展开 5 条中性
- <a id="atom-682381abd9b06726"></a>2026-04-15
X·@TheTranscript_ · CEO 对信贷纪律的表态 · 管理层表态
So we are quite disciplined on credit. There are certain things we turn down.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-4bccde903b3ecd6d"></a>2026-04-19
X·@TheTranscript_ · CEO Jamie Dimon comment - cost of doing business · 仓位情绪/管理层表态
$JPM CEO Jamie Dimon: You don’t need to win every trade. "Every now and then you're on the wrong side of something in a credit or a commodity or rate side or something like that. And you see that. But to me, that's kind of the cost of doing business."
tags: 好思考 · → daily
[图: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) 投资者会议文本及交易平台截图 — 每日交易额: $4 trillion; 全球投资者资产规模: $350 trillion]
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-9732e4ced87b799c"></a>2026-05-29
X·@TheTranscript_ · CEO 对有机增长看法 · 管理层表态
Organic growth is hard. If you sit around a lot of management meetings, the first thing they do when they're not doing well in organic growth is they start to bullshit about M&A. My management meetings, I don't want to hear about M&A. That's a separate conversation. What are you doing to grow your business? Sales, branches, tech, profits, products, services, all that competition I mentioned. A lot of those things we can be building ourselves, we don't. We can partner with somebody else. Yes, looking at acquisitions is important. It keeps you quite smart. I do think there might be opportunities. We are on the lookout, but it's got to make sense.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: date=2026-05-29
- <a id="atom-b48ff3579d307e5e"></a>2026-06-10
X·@zerohedge · 发布互联网股票情绪矩阵 · 仓位情绪
Internet sentiment matrix (from JPM)
tags: 好信源 · → daily
[图: 摩根大通（JPM）发布的互联网股票对冲基金与仅做多（Long Onlys）情绪矩阵图 — Hedge Funds 情绪区间: 1-10; Long Onlys 情绪区间: 1-10]
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-5539d47a0b81de3b"></a>2026-06-30
X·@S_curvecap · Schilsky sentiment check · 仓位情绪
Sentiment check - h/t Schilsky @ JPM
tags: 好思考 · → daily
value: qty=sentiment · date=2026-06-30
📷 原图
4. 回购与股息信号 vs 股价高估论调
*topic: 回购分红/估值 · 1 bull vs 1 bear*
🟢 bullish 侧:
- <a id="atom-cf7239a22e9b1609"></a>2026-06-24
X·@AIStockSavvy ⭐ · 计划回购规模 · 回购分红
$50 billion buyback program
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$50 billion · date=
🔴 bearish 侧:
- <a id="atom-57af23f1812e65ec"></a>2026-06-08
X·@zerohedge · 认为Intel交易被过度炒作 · 估值
JPM pours cold water on the "Intel deal"
tags: 好观点 · → daily
展开 1 条中性
- <a id="atom-fa0ed74d51562dca"></a>2026-06-24
X·@AIStockSavvy · 计划增加股息 · 回购分红
JPMorgan Chase plans dividend increase
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty= · date=
🔮 前瞻触发器 (forward triggers)
*这些 atom 指向可能 reprice 的前瞻事件 (无精确日期, 仅类型). 配合上面叙事状态看「上膛」程度.*
供需拐点 (1 · ▲1/▼0)
- 🟢 2026-04-15 · 对 YMTC 扩产的 NAND 供需评估
JPM 认为 YMTC 扩产慢于预期，部分无尘室或用于低功耗 DRAM 研发 → 未来 12-18 个月 NAND 供需偏正面，重申供给增长有限
🟦 客观事实 (facts) (29)
- <a id="atom-cf7239a22e9b1609"></a>🟦 2026-06-24
X·@AIStockSavvy ⭐ · 计划回购规模 · 回购分红
$50 billion buyback program
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$50 billion · date=
- <a id="atom-d590df742ce6a45c"></a>🟦 2026-05-06
X·@zerohedge ⭐ · 最大并购交易损失 · 并购损失
JPM Faces $500MM Loss In Biggest "Hung" Deal This Year
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$500MM · date=2026
- <a id="atom-ee3ce8ed7472b479"></a>🟦 2026-05-29
X·@fkronawitter1 · 报告 60% 2027 年数据中心容量未开工 · 数据中心算力/供给产能
over 60% of data center capacity planned for completion in 2027 has not begun construction
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=60% · date=2027
- <a id="atom-894b3c92475f027e"></a>🟦 2026-05-29
X·@fkronawitter1 · 报告 7% 2027 年数据中心容量延迟 · 数据中心算力/供给产能
another 7% delayed [of data center capacity planned for 2027]
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=7% · date=2027
- <a id="atom-5d08cc8e6349d610"></a>🟦 2026-05-02
X·@Sean14978416 · 企业软件行业AI原生SKU对总账单贡献比例 · 营收/AI
AI原生SKU对总账单贡献: ~1-2%
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=1-2%
[图: 摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）关于企业软件行业的卖方研究报告截图，分析了AI推动遥测数据量增长对Datadog和Dynatrace的影响 — AI原生SKU对总账单贡献: ~1-2%; 行业趋势预测期: 未来12-18个月]
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-9d2b8b91bd5cda50"></a>🟦 2026-06-29
X·@TheTranscript_ · CEO 对网络风险的评估 · 管理层表态/技术路线
$JPM JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon: "Cyber is our biggest risk made worse by AI... I didn't know how much worse by AI. It's, like, really worse."
tags: 好信源·好观点 · → daily
value: direction=bearish
- <a id="atom-bf636cb586bc2835"></a>🟦 2026-06-16
X·@matthew_sigel · power estimates raise · 资本开支/数据中心算力
JPM raises power estimates by 13%
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: qty=13%
[图: 摩根大通关于AI资本支出与数据中心债务融资分析的卖方研究报告截图 — AI/数据中心相关发行额: 超过3000亿美元]
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-b4ce8ff1cdeaae1c"></a>🟦 2026-06-16
X·@matthew_sigel · AI capex estimates raise · 资本开支
JPM raises AI capex estimates by 8% (through 2030)
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: qty=8% · date=through 2030
[图: 摩根大通关于AI资本支出与数据中心债务融资分析的卖方研究报告截图 — AI/数据中心相关发行额: 超过3000亿美元]
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-225535832761306e"></a>🟦 2026-04-15
X·@TheTranscript_ · 消费者支出中汽油能源成本占比 · 成本结构
$JPM CFO: "So I think gas or energy cost is something like 3% of the typical consumer's expenditure, at least in our portfolio. So it's not nothing, but it's not overwhelming."
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=3% · date=当前
- <a id="atom-fa0ed74d51562dca"></a>🟦 2026-06-24
X·@AIStockSavvy · 计划增加股息 · 回购分红
JPMorgan Chase plans dividend increase
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty= · date=
- <a id="atom-3a7879ac2fc2d363"></a>🟦 2026-06-16
X·@matthew_sigel · capacity growth forecast · 供给产能/数据中心算力
Now expects 138GW of capacity growth through 2030, up from 122 GW in prior forecast
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=138GW · date=through 2030
[图: 摩根大通关于AI资本支出与数据中心债务融资分析的卖方研究报告截图 — AI/数据中心相关发行额: 超过3000亿美元]
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-b48ff3579d307e5e"></a>🟦 2026-06-10
X·@zerohedge · 发布互联网股票情绪矩阵 · 仓位情绪
Internet sentiment matrix (from JPM)
tags: 好信源 · → daily
[图: 摩根大通（JPM）发布的互联网股票对冲基金与仅做多（Long Onlys）情绪矩阵图 — Hedge Funds 情绪区间: 1-10; Long Onlys 情绪区间: 1-10]
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-07e46176847807dd"></a>🟦 2026-05-12
X·@zerohedge · 2026 年油价预测 · 价格动态
JPM: "Our analysis now suggests that oil prices should remain in the low $100s for most of the rest of this year, averaging $97 for 2026 as a whole"
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$97 · date=2026
- <a id="atom-2c13952c27489cc0"></a>🟦 2026-05-10
X·@SamRo · KOSPI base case target · 评级目标价
we raise our base/bull/bear case KOSPI targets to 9,000/10,000/6,000
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=9000 · date=not specified
- <a id="atom-43b36dbed3021556"></a>🟦 2026-05-10
X·@SamRo · KOSPI bull case target · 评级目标价
we raise our base/bull/bear case KOSPI targets to 9,000/10,000/6,000
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=10000 · date=not specified
- <a id="atom-6c365aef8aa7fbd0"></a>🟦 2026-05-10
X·@SamRo · KOSPI bear case target · 评级目标价
we raise our base/bull/bear case KOSPI targets to 9,000/10,000/6,000
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=6000 · date=not specified
- <a id="atom-682381abd9b06726"></a>🟦 2026-04-15
X·@TheTranscript_ · CEO 对信贷纪律的表态 · 管理层表态
So we are quite disciplined on credit. There are certain things we turn down.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-607993450d3f61db"></a>🟦 2026-06-21
X·@cnfinancewatch · 出现大单主动卖出 · 仓位情绪
JPM出现大单主动卖出（机构减配）
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: date=周五
- <a id="atom-4312c51719465618"></a>🟦 2026-06-20
X·@Aymanhamzi8 · 发布AVGO/MRVL ASIC管道近期更新 · 产品发布
JPM: Near-Term Update on $AVGO / $MRVL ASIC Pipelines
tags: 好信源 · → daily
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-fc7971d75a6074f9"></a>🟦 2026-05-29
X·@TheTranscript_ · CEO 表态 · 管理层表态
$JPM CEO this week: Don't outsource growth
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: direction=反对外包增长
- <a id="atom-9732e4ced87b799c"></a>🟦 2026-05-29
X·@TheTranscript_ · CEO 对有机增长看法 · 管理层表态
Organic growth is hard. If you sit around a lot of management meetings, the first thing they do when they're not doing well in organic growth is they start to bullshit about M&A. My management meetings, I don't want to hear about M&A. That's a separate conversation. What are you doing to grow your business? Sales, branches, tech, profits, products, services, all that competition I mentioned. A lot of those things we can be building ourselves, we don't. We can partner with somebody else. Yes, looking at acquisitions is important. It keeps you quite smart. I do think there might be opportunities. We are on the lookout, but it's got to make sense.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: date=2026-05-29
- <a id="atom-81e8dd87024b41c0"></a>🟦 2026-05-27
X·@HighyieldHarry · 使用HighyieldHarry推文到报告 · 报告编制
So JPM is using my tweets in their reports — I just found out today.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-a81befa289e6e621"></a>🟦 2026-05-17
X·@beauty_oe · 2026年中期展望报告发布 · 宏观利率
JPMの2026年中間見通しレポートが発表‼️
tags: 好信源 · → daily
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-7013e07fae129682"></a>🟦 2026-05-15
X·@Sino_Market · CEO attends Global China Summit in Shanghai · 合作客户
May 21–22: JPMorgan Global China Summit in Shanghai, with CEO Jamie Dimon attending.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: date=2026-05-21
[图: 全球宏观经济及财报事件周度前瞻汇总图 — May 18-24: 全球周度前瞻; May 20: 英伟达财报发布; May 18: 中国社会消费品零售总额等数据发布; May 21-22: 摩根大通全球中国峰会]
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-101da87bba5e75f4"></a>🟦 2026-05-06
X·@zerohedge · 战术立场 · 仓位情绪
they turned bullish a month ago
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: direction=从看跌转为看涨
- <a id="atom-93b7609fbd0f477b"></a>🟦 2026-04-14
X·@TheTranscript_ · CEO关于Mythos的表述 · 合作客户/地缘政治
$JPM CEO on Mythos: "Of course, we read about Mythos, which we're testing now and looking at it and it does create additional vulnerabilities"
tags: 好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-22f948f6389c33eb"></a>🟦 2026-05-10
X·@SamRo [老旧] · Korea preferred market in region · 仓位情绪
Korea remains our most preferred market in the region
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: direction=neutral
- <a id="atom-4bccde903b3ecd6d"></a>🟦 2026-04-19
X·@TheTranscript_ · CEO Jamie Dimon comment - cost of doing business · 仓位情绪/管理层表态
$JPM CEO Jamie Dimon: You don’t need to win every trade. "Every now and then you're on the wrong side of something in a credit or a commodity or rate side or something like that. And you see that. But to me, that's kind of the cost of doing business."
tags: 好思考 · → daily
[图: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) 投资者会议文本及交易平台截图 — 每日交易额: $4 trillion; 全球投资者资产规模: $350 trillion]
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-d99bb3a4c8ecc90a"></a>🟦 2026-05-19
X·@JigarShahDC · 霍尔木兹海峡开放预期 · 地缘政治
JPM, Goldman, and Morgan Stanley are all assuming the Strait opens in June.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: date=June 2026
🟥 多头 takes (bullish) (11)
- <a id="atom-fc2cacaec956fbb8"></a>🟥 2026-06-03
X·@EndTesla · Broadcom 2027 revenue estimate · 营收/评级目标价
JPM at $120bn
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$120bn · date=2027
- <a id="atom-31c2607e0cdefa4a"></a>🟥 2026-04-15
群 [老旧] · 对 YMTC 扩产的 NAND 供需评估 · NAND供需/产能扩张
JPM 认为 YMTC 扩产慢于预期，部分无尘室或用于低功耗 DRAM 研发 → 未来 12-18 个月 NAND 供需偏正面，重申供给增长有限
tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=12-18 个月影响偏正面，NAND B/G 21%（25A-28E CAGR）
- <a id="atom-f8af4b4f22b19858"></a>🟥 2026-06-24
X·@jukan05 · KOSPI bull-case target · 评级目标价
JPM RAISES ITS KOSPI BULL-CASE TARGET TO 15,000 POINTS.
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=15000 · unit=points
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-61e638980b388a31"></a>🟥 2026-06-24
X·@jukan05 · KOSPI base-case target · 评级目标价
JPM also raised its base-case and bear-case targets to 12,500 points and 8,000 points, respectively.
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=12500 · unit=points
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-31e5367cd4f88fbc"></a>🟥 2026-06-09
newsletter·JPM · AI电源TAM · 需求/数据中心
JPM says AI power interconnect TAM could expand from ~$2B today to over $4B by 2028
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$4B · year=2028
- <a id="atom-4077d5e16438f58e"></a>🟥 2026-04-24
群 [老旧] · 原油交易策略 · 交易策略/对冲
JPM 建议逢低做多原油/能源，并对股票多头进行对冲，若停火谈判彻底失败，预计油价创新高，股市创新低
tags: 好观点 · → daily
- <a id="atom-4cd53dcb0d50c933"></a>🟥 2026-05-27
X·@jukan05 · 预测AI超级周期带动HBM和内存需求激增 · 订单需求/数据中心算力
_JPM: Another beneficiary of the AI cycle is European luxury stocks
The report argues that the AI supercycle has driven a surge in HBM and memory demand, sharply improving earnings expectations for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix._
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: qty= · date=
[图: 摩根大通预测的各大欧洲奢侈品牌对韩国市场的销售额敞口比例图表 — Moncler韩国销售敞口: 12%; Prada韩国销售敞口: 12%; Burberry韩国销售敞口: 9%; Hermes韩国销售敞口: 9%; Brunello Cucinelli韩国销售敞口: 3%]
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-35dd629e00816053"></a>🟥 2026-06-09
newsletter·JPM · 800V AI数据中心转型机会 · 数据中心/供电架构
JPM says 800V AI datacenter transition creates multi-billion-dollar opportunity across the stack
tags: 好观点 · → daily
- <a id="atom-dd3dd416fb53a274"></a>🟥 2026-05-17
X·@beauty_oe · AI瓶颈股将多年走强 · 竞争格局
物理的ボトルネック企業は数年強いとの見解。
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: date=未来数年
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-f07f1af5884210c4"></a>🟥 2026-05-17
X·@beauty_oe · 建议在AIcapex担忧时买入大型科技股 · 仓位情绪
メガテックについても、今のcapex懸念が出てるタイミングで拾うのはアリだとパラさん。
tags: 好观点 · → daily
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-94e6c78c093bd14b"></a>🟥 2026-04-30
X·@aleabitoreddit [老化中] · military contractor · 仓位情绪
I didn’t know JPM was a military contractor too with those cannons.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
🟥 空头 takes (bearish) (9)
- <a id="atom-009c2bac60a7bd86"></a>🟥 2026-06-29
群 · 看近端 R/R 转差，建议 re-enter shorts in Asia Consumer Electronics · 仓位信号/轮动
JPM 看近端 R/R 转差...Gross leverage 从 361% 降到 338%（5 年 98%），Semis 6m Z ~+3z——历史上 +2.5z 是暂停/反转信号。建议 re-enter shorts in Asia Consumer Electronics 和 EU Chemicals
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: qty=Gross leverage 从 361% 降到 338%（5 年 98%），Semis 6m Z ~+3z
- <a id="atom-0b41a932e150b305"></a>🟥 2026-06-24
X·@jukan05 · KOSPI bear-case target · 评级目标价
JPM also raised its base-case and bear-case targets to 12,500 points and 8,000 points, respectively.
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=8000 · unit=points
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-c53b0efef07d59fe"></a>🟥 2026-05-29
X·@TheTranscript_ [老旧] · CEO 评价资产价格 · 股价估值/管理层表态
$JPM CEO this week: "I think asset prices are high, including JPMorgan stock. I'm not that fond of buying stock at these prices, or companies. We're quite patient with capital. It's not burning a hole in our pocket at all. It's just there for a while, no problem."
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: direction=high
- <a id="atom-cf90dde8dac188af"></a>🟥 2026-05-05
X·@zerohedge [老化中] · exposure_to_El_Paso_SPV · 仓位情绪
don't want any piece of the deal, so they are scrambling to offload all exposure to the market
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: direction=降低
- <a id="atom-7c17993d443cd50a"></a>🟥 2026-06-25
X·@trevornoren · 观点: 未来许多 token 消耗来自小模型而非前沿模型 · 技术路线/竞争格局
JPM: "Many tokens consumed in the future may not come from frontier models but from smaller open models that are up to the tasks."
tags: 好信源 · → daily
[图: 一张展示不同AI模型运行成本与智能指数评分对比的散点图，横轴为运行成本（对数坐标，美元），纵轴为综合基准评分 — 绿色象限最低评分阈值: 30; 绿色象限最高成本阈值: 约 $500.00; 最高评分模型 (Claude Fable 5): 约 58; 横轴最大成本标尺: $10,000.00; 横轴最小成本标尺: $10.00]
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-57af23f1812e65ec"></a>🟥 2026-06-08
X·@zerohedge · 认为Intel交易被过度炒作 · 估值
JPM pours cold water on the "Intel deal"
tags: 好观点 · → daily
- <a id="atom-a3c85609cb250db1"></a>🟥 2026-05-05
X·@zerohedge · 移除“至少”表述预测 · 监管政策/利率预期
JPM 预计 Treasury 将移除 “at least” 声明中的 “at least”
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: qty=未来几个季度 · direction=increase
- <a id="atom-78037d60ef69f734"></a>🟥 2026-04-28
X·@zerohedge · credit downturn forecast · 宏观利率/宏观经济
CREDIT DOWNTURN WILL BE WORSE THAN PEOPLE THINK
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: qty=worse than current expectations · direction=worsening
- <a id="atom-6a3e0b30166886e4"></a>🟥 2026-06-03
X·@RYANHINGSHING · 2026年3月衝突預期 · 地缘政治
在3月時，JPM預期衝突很可能只持續數週，三大理由為彈藥（Munitions）、市場（Markets）和中期選舉（Midterms），結果美伊還在打
tags: 好思考 · → daily
🟥 中性 takes (neutral) (4)
- <a id="atom-955f1b03fd24880d"></a>🟥 2026-06-29
X·@zerohedge · 报告主题 · 资本开支/订单需求
Entering The Mega Investment Era: JPM Breaks Down South Korea's Plan To Double Memory-Chip Production
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty= · date=2026-06-29
- <a id="atom-85aed4c938e9bf4c"></a>🟥 2026-05-27
X·@jukan05 · 卖方研究报告引用社交媒体推文 · 卖方研报
JPM is using my tweets in their reports
tags: 好信源 · → daily
[图: 摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）卖方研究报告截图，其中引用了社交媒体用户关于半导体设备稀缺性及 HBM 市场动态的调研推文 — 报告日期: 2026年5月27日; 推文浏览量: 26K]
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-5539d47a0b81de3b"></a>🟥 2026-06-30
X·@S_curvecap · Schilsky sentiment check · 仓位情绪
Sentiment check - h/t Schilsky @ JPM
tags: 好思考 · → daily
value: qty=sentiment · date=2026-06-30
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-e761199e81bc037d"></a>🟥 2026-04-28
X·@zerohedge [老化中] · CEO Dimon 表态确保西方世界团结 · 地缘政治
JPM'S DIMON: NEED TO MAKE SURE WE KEEP WESTERN WORLD TOGETHER
tags: 好观点 · → daily
🟦 新闻流 (squawk · 6)
展开新闻流 (FirstSquawk / financialjuice / wallstengine / DeItaone — 快讯, 非原创 take)
- <a id="atom-5cbe157b033d4591"></a>🟦 2026-06-24
X·@wallstengine · 拟将季度股息从每股1.50美元提高至1.65美元 · 回购分红
$JPM plans to raise its quarterly dividend to $1.65/share from $1.50 starting in Q3 2026
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=1.65美元/股 · date=Q3 2026
- <a id="atom-fdb01025dd2f75fc"></a>🟦 2026-06-24
X·@wallstengine · 授权新500亿美元股票回购计划 · 回购分红
JPMorgan also authorized a new $50B share repurchase program, effective July 1.
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$50B · date=2026年7月1日生效
- <a id="atom-fa6ae46699ae78be"></a>🟦 2026-06-24
X·@wallstengine · 压力资本缓冲要求维持不变 · 资本开支
Stress Capital Buffer requirement will remain unchanged at 2.5% through Sept. 30, 2027, with its standardized CET1 capital ratio requirement remaining at 11.5%.
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=2.5% · date=至2027年9月30日
- <a id="atom-987ef7b886047d27"></a>🟦 2026-06-24
X·@wallstengine · 标准化CET1资本比率要求维持不变 · 资本开支
its standardized CET1 capital ratio requirement remaining at 11.5%.
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=11.5% · date=至2027年9月30日
- <a id="atom-f2c6d506ebe3d0f1"></a>🟥 2026-05-06
X·@wallstengine [老化中] · AI token costs impact on internet profits · 盈利能力
JPM on AI token costs: “Eating Internet Profits Alive.”
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: direction=negative
- <a id="atom-6e07c3215f530bba"></a>🟥 2026-05-06
X·@wallstengine · suspicion AI costs become bigger margin issue · 盈利能力
adding it has a “VERY sneaking suspicion” this becomes a bigger margin issue as the year goes on.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: direction=escalating
⏱ 时间轴 (近 20)
- 🟥 2026-06-30 ·
narrative · Schilsky sentiment check · → daily
- 🟥 2026-06-29 ·
position · 看近端 R/R 转差，建议 re-enter shorts in Asia Consumer Electronics · → daily
- 🟥 2026-06-29 ·
narrative · 报告主题 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-29 ·
fact · CEO 对网络风险的评估 · → daily
- 🟥 2026-06-25 ·
narrative · 观点: 未来许多 token 消耗来自小模型而非前沿模型 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-24 ·
fact · 计划增加股息 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-24 ·
fact · 计划回购规模 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-24 ·
fact · 拟将季度股息从每股1.50美元提高至1.65美元 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-24 ·
fact · 授权新500亿美元股票回购计划 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-24 ·
fact · 压力资本缓冲要求维持不变 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-24 ·
fact · 标准化CET1资本比率要求维持不变 · → daily
- 🟥 2026-06-24 ·
forecast · KOSPI bull-case target · → daily
- 🟥 2026-06-24 ·
forecast · KOSPI base-case target · → daily
- 🟥 2026-06-24 ·
forecast · KOSPI bear-case target · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-21 ·
fact · 出现大单主动卖出 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-20 ·
narrative · 发布AVGO/MRVL ASIC管道近期更新 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-16 ·
forecast · power estimates raise · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-16 ·
forecast · AI capex estimates raise · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-16 ·
forecast · capacity growth forecast · → daily
- 🟥 2026-06-16 ·
narrative · 认为5年芯片寿命与长期IG资本之间的久期错配是万亿美元级别未解问题 · → daily
← 实体目录 · 系统日志
