Rubin 架构 = PCB 含量爆发: PCB 是 VR200 中下游增量最大的环节，较 GB300 增长 233%[1]Terminal Junkie · 05-23"…CB is the biggest downstream content increase in VR200, up *+233%* vs GB300. PCB content per rack rises from *$35k to $117k*,…"。单机柜 PCB 价值从 $35k 升至 $117k[1]Terminal Junkie · 05-23"…R200, up *+233%* vs GB300. PCB content per rack rises from *$35k to $117k*, while ABF substrate content rises *+82%*, from *$11k to $…"，ABF 基板价值增长 82% 至 $20k[1]Terminal Junkie · 05-23"…es from *$35k to $117k*, while ABF substrate content rises *+82%*, from *$11k to $20k*. Honestly, why are we not buying more…"。
层数 + 材料规格双升: Rubin 计算 PCB 从 GB300 的 22L HDI/M7 升级至 26L/M8[1]Terminal Junkie · 05-23"…dules = PCB content explosion:* Rubin compute PCB moves to *26L / M8* from GB300’s *22L HDI / M7*. Switch PCB moves to *32L vs 2…"，交换机 PCB 从 24L 升至 32L，并新增 44L 中板 PCB[1]Terminal Junkie · 05-23"…witch PCB moves to *32L vs 24L*, and Rubin also adds a new *44L midplane PCB* that was not in GB300. Add ConnectX and BlueField-related …"。
ABF 供需缺口扩大: 大摩预计到 2030 年 ABF 供需缺口将扩大至 22%[1]Terminal Junkie · 05-23"…here. MS now expects the ABF supply/demand gap to widen to *22% undersupply by 2030*, versus *15% previously*. Personally, I think even that un…"。本轮周期由 AI 驱动，服务器/GPU/ASIC 等占比将达 75%+[1]Terminal Junkie · 05-23"…rver, AI GPU, AI ASIC and networking, potentially reaching *75%+ of ABF market value by 2030*. That makes pricing power very different this time…"，定价权显著增强。
上游铜箔= 隐形瓶颈: AI 服务器转向 HVLP3/4/5 铜箔以减少信号衰减。高盛预计 2026-2028 年 HVLP3+ 供应短缺 25-40%[1]Terminal Junkie · 05-23"… higher frequency. GS expects HVLP3+ supply to be short by *25–40% through 2026–2028*. That is not a normal commodity setup. 10. *Co-Tech could …"。
VGT/WUS 领跑 PCB，Unimicron 首选 ABF: VGT 和 WUS 是最干净的 AI PCB 标的[1]Terminal Junkie · 05-23"…lays right now:* To be fair, when it comes to PCB, I think *Victory Giant and WUS* are currently the two cleanest AI PCB names. If we focus s…"。ABF 基板首推 Unimicron，NYPCB 具定价杠杆，Kinsus 为黑马，ZDT 受益于生态扩容[1]Terminal Junkie · 05-23"…ore supply relief arrives. 7. *My ABF ranking (ex. Ibiden): Unimicron my fav, NYPCB pricing play, Kinsus dark horse, ZDT broadening-out play:* I still prefer *Unimicron* and h…"。Kingboard 凭借垂直整合优势保障上游供应[1]Terminal Junkie · 05-23"…k that can get ignored until earnings start exploding. 11. *Kingboard is interesting because vertical integration matters again:* Another name I…"。
机构持仓轮动 观察·资金流向
资金持续从软件轮动至半导体 半导体权重创纪录，软件低配达多年极值
半导体多头创纪录: 对冲基金多头组合中半导体权重创历史新高，而软件权重降至 2019 年以来最低[2]H-Cap · 05-23"…s the highest on record while the weight of Software is the lowest since 2019. Mutual funds carry the widest underweight in Software ex. …"。
共同基金大幅低配软件: 共同基金在软件（除微软外）的低配幅度达到 2012 年以来最大[2]H-Cap · 05-23"…ual funds carry the widest underweight in Software ex. MSFT since 2012. Both mutual funds and hedge funds reduced positions on net…"。
2 宏观与地缘政治
伊朗协议传闻 争论·地缘博弈
伊朗协议传闻引发博弈，但 MAGA 选民大概率会买单 焦点在于协议能否实质落地，目前传闻已取消
草案包含重开霍尔木兹海峡: 草案包括结束黎巴嫩等多条战线、释放数十亿美元冻结资金、解除海上封锁及重开霍尔木兹海峡[3]John · 05-23"…f Iran's blocked funds -Lifting the U.S. naval blockade and opening the strait of Hormuz -Withdrawal of American forces from the immediate vicinity …"。
MAGA 选民更看重油价而非以色列: 群友认为 MAGA 选民更关注降低油价（10Y 4.6%，30Y 5%+[4]Akh · 05-24"MAGA vs 10Y 4.6%, 30Y 5%+"），只要特朗普背书，MAGA 就会接受，并不关心以色列的战争[5]H-Cap · 05-24"MAGA want gasoline lower, and to move on. They dont care one iota about Bibi's war"。
协议落地存疑: 后续有消息称协议已取消，但噪音仍在继续，霍尔木兹海峡仍无明确视线[6]Bessents Burner · 05-24"Deal called off btw but noise is continuing"。
🟥▲潜在结果：制裁解除+OPEC配额，伊朗获利 · 制裁解除/石油产量 If Israel excluded (big IF) Then this is likely a huge taco Iran gets sanctions relief and prob opec quota Basically it gets rich
🟥▲作为第二供应商的高端铜箔稀缺性交易 · 产能饱和/定价权 Co-Tech could be the 'second qualified supplier' scarcity trade: Capacity running near 100% utilization, mix shifting higher, ASP going up, high-end HVLP copper foil carrying much better margins than
🟥▲作为PCB周期的二次导数交易 · 设备升级/需求 PCB equipment is the second-derivative trade: Ta Liang, Han’s CNC, Dtech; more layers, tighter line/space, HDI, mSAP, higher drilling intensity and stricter yield requirements all mean better equipmen