CPU TAM 预期翻倍 → DRAM 增速面临重估Nvidia 将 2030 年 CPU TAM 预期提至 $200B，暗示极高 CAGR
预期三连跳: 一季度前 AMD 预计 $60B；一个月前 AMD/Arm 提至 $120B；本周 Nvidia 提至 $200B，对应约 50% CAGR [1]n · 05-24"One quarter ago: AMD said CPU TAM could reach $60B by 2030, or 18% CAGR. One month ago: AMD/Arm double the number to $12…"。
DRAM 重估逻辑: 基于 CPU TAM 50% CAGR 更新，且服务器CPU 核心的 DRAM 配置从 4GB 升至 16GB 甚至 32GB → DRAM CAGR 面临重估 [1]n · 05-24"One quarter ago: AMD said CPU TAM could reach $60B by 2030, or 18% CAGR. One month ago: AMD/Arm double the number to $12…"。
产能约束: UBS 的 Arcuri 认为，受限于 WFE（晶圆制造设备）产能，超过 $200b 的预期不切实际 [2]TMT Breakout · 05-24"I believe Arcuri at UBS has said anything more than $200b unrealistic given wfe constraints"。
技术路径: 群友指出华为可能试图通过混合键合（hybrid bonding）实现突破，而非与 ASML 竞争的光刻设备 [3]Jukan · 05-25"It seems like they are trying to achieve this through hybrid bonding, rather than through lithography equipment that com…"。
真伪质疑: 中国选前媒体周期要求减少出口管制= 仍需要西方工具 → 突破传闻不可信 [4]Bessents Burner · 05-25"Propaganda until proven otherwise"[5]MyNameIsJeff · 05-25"The entire pre Xi POTUS media cycle was China asking for less export controls on semicap"[6]MyNameIsJeff · 05-25"Gee why would that be if they don't want/need western tools"。
设备商影响: HW 推进芯片创新 = 驱动浸没式工具采购（非利空 ASML） + 利好 ASMPT 及本地先进封装工具（如键合机） [7]Mimimi · 05-25"I don’t think it’s negative for ASML. It’s better for HW to have a credible roadmap and to keep pushing chip innovation …"[8]Terminal Junkie · 05-25"Asmpt!"。
外资流出规模: KOSPI 净流出约 US$62bn，其中约 US$57bn 集中在三星和 SK海力士。韩国半导体外资持股降至 10 年低点（50.5%） [9]H-Cap · 05-24"The ~US$62bn in net foreign outflows from KOSPI — of which ~US$57bn is concentrated in the two largest semiconductor sto…"。
抛售机制: 受 1940 年投资公司法限制，这两只股票在 MSCI Korea 的权重超过 25% 阈值，自 2025 年 10 月底以来引发约 US$69bn 的强制抛售。权重每增 1%，可能再触发约 US$2bn 流出 [9]H-Cap · 05-24"The ~US$62bn in net foreign outflows from KOSPI — of which ~US$57bn is concentrated in the two largest semiconductor sto…"。
板块偏好: 群友提议航空股作为“重启”交易，国防科技作为“买入初始抛售”标的，利率敏感的房地产也被提及 [10]S t · 05-24"How do people think market reacts on Monday? Asian markets should see strong price action. Any good names for a “reopeni…"[11]Shadow_Alpha · 05-24"Rate sensitive, housing would be a good one to swing."。
协议执行疑虑: 针对某项协议，群友指出存在“签署后 30 天”的巨大警告，且未说明“开放”条件。目前海峡对愿意向受制裁的 IRGC 付费的船只是“开放”的 [12]mingthemerciless · 05-27"there's HUGE caveat: "30 days" after signing deal. And doesnt specify under what conditions itll "open|". As we speak fr…"。
🟥▲价格目标路径 · 价格目标/路径分析 H-Cap: at $1500, you need it for the final move to $2200. Arun Dhar: That's the _final_, final move once you get to $2200 (after $3000 mention)
🟥◆对 Unity 的执念不解 · 收购猜测/管理层表态 Randy Marsh: I just don't understand his fascination with Unity... maybe he thinks they'll get acquired for their engine? Tencent would be the likely buyer.. pray to god it's not ME SWFs