以下部分引用 AI 总结，现阶段 AI 仍然有幻觉。请以内容的原文为准。
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ADSK
51 atoms · 跨 9 天 · 首见 2026-05-12 · 最近 2026-06-29
三色: 🟦 fact 35 · 🟥 take 16 · stance ▲26/▼5/◆6
叙事状态: ⚔️ contested (分歧) · 📉 放缓 · 策展近14d 1 atom
状态只算低频策展源 (群/卖方); X firehose 仅作背景音量
来源: X 32 · 卖 15
时态: fresh:46 · stale:3 · aging:2
标签: 好数字:34 · 好观点:14 · 好信源:7 · 好思考:1
🟨 AI 综合 · junior analyst 概览
展开 AI 综合 (灰色 · 非市场结论 · 点击数字溯源到原 atom)
model: deepseek-chat · 2026-07-12 · 默认折叠
Autodesk 当前交易在 10 年最低估值，远期 P/E 仅 14.98 倍
¹，BofA 以 Buy 评级覆盖并设目标价 300 美元
¹¹。BNP 预计 FY28 有机增速可超 18%，营业利润率在几年内有望超 40%
¹¹；但基础增速实际仅 8%-9%
¹。收购 MaintenX 花费 36 亿美元，而其 ARR 仅 1.35 亿，被部分观点视为“令人费解”的交易
¹¹。多头认为软件嵌入关键行业、更受 AI 帮助而非替代
¹，但另一些指出 AI 初创公司崛起正削弱垂直软件的避险吸引力
¹。
🧭 拥挤度 (一人一票): ▲ 5 位作者 (KOL4 · 卖方1) vs ▼ 1 位作者 (卖方1)
⚖️ 多头 4/5 来自KOL
💢 核心分歧 (2 轴)
1. 收购 MaintainX 是协同还是烧钱
*topic: 并购/订单需求 · 1 bull vs 1 bear*
🟢 bullish 侧:
- <a id="atom-5e35041ac3bb4ef5"></a>2026-05-28
X·@wallstengine · Q1 2027 current RPO actual · 订单需求
Current RPO: $5.383B; +18% YoY
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$5.383B · date=Q1 FY27
🔴 bearish 侧:
- <a id="atom-8644c26221969a8e"></a>2026-05-31
卖·BofA Brian Fenske · 收购MaintainX · 并购
The $3.6B acquisition of MaintainX (doing only $135M in ARR) was a bit of a head-scratcher (largest ADSK acquisition to date)
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$3.6B acquisition of MaintainX (only $135M in ARR)
展开 3 条中性
- <a id="atom-0df51c7bf56b9053"></a>2026-06-01
卖·BofA Brian Fenske · 收购MaintainX · 并购
The $3.6B acquisition of MaintainX (doing only $135M in ARR) was a bit of a head-scratcher (largest ADSK acquisition to date)
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$3.6B · target_ARR=$135M
- <a id="atom-3546fd67de5e4ffb"></a>2026-05-28
X·@AIStockSavvy · 收购 MaintainX 价格 · 并购
$ADSK Autodesk to Acquire MaintainX for Approximately $3.6B
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=3.6B · currency=USD
2. AI 赋能 vs AI 初创替代威胁
*topic: AI初创竞争/技术路线 · 1 bull vs 1 bear*
🟢 bullish 侧:
- <a id="atom-0b1126181243f912"></a>2026-05-31
卖·BofA Brian Fenske · 软件被AI助力 · 技术路线
ADSK software is one of the more obvious pieces of Software 'helped by' not replaced by AI
tags: 好观点 · → daily
🔴 bearish 侧:
- <a id="atom-5ec7bf2693474e84"></a>2026-06-29
卖·JPM · 避险吸引力因AI初创公司崛起而减弱 · 市场情绪/AI初创竞争
Vertical software, at least rhetorically, has been a place where investors were looking to hide, on the margin. That's starting to slowly fade away as new AI start-ups are making waves in the news.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
📏 估计带 (1)
*语料内对同一量的估计区间 (≥2 个估计才成带). 不判断谁对, 只陈列.*
- 营收 未标期限 ⚠
混合口径: 8% · 2 个估计 · 最新 2026-06-01 8% (卖·cred4)
🟦 客观事实 (facts) (10)
- <a id="atom-3546fd67de5e4ffb"></a>🟦 2026-05-28
X·@AIStockSavvy · 收购 MaintainX 价格 · 并购
$ADSK Autodesk to Acquire MaintainX for Approximately $3.6B
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=3.6B · currency=USD
- <a id="atom-31eecf2e40116b99"></a>🟦 2026-06-11
卖·BofA Brian Fenske [老旧] · LO Active Manager Positioning
ADSK LO Active Manager Positioning is currently near 0.7x.
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=0.7x · date=2026-06
- <a id="atom-e0be0cf4693e3e58"></a>🟦 2026-06-01
卖·BofA Brian Fenske · 核心增速 · 营收增长
Tomer writes that 'underlying growth' is tracking at 8%-9%
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=8%-9% · unit=YoY
- <a id="atom-0df51c7bf56b9053"></a>🟦 2026-06-01
卖·BofA Brian Fenske · 收购MaintainX · 并购
The $3.6B acquisition of MaintainX (doing only $135M in ARR) was a bit of a head-scratcher (largest ADSK acquisition to date)
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$3.6B · target_ARR=$135M
- <a id="atom-8644c26221969a8e"></a>🟦 2026-05-31
卖·BofA Brian Fenske · 收购MaintainX · 并购
The $3.6B acquisition of MaintainX (doing only $135M in ARR) was a bit of a head-scratcher (largest ADSK acquisition to date)
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$3.6B acquisition of MaintainX (only $135M in ARR)
- <a id="atom-b9752e492f09f597"></a>🟦 2026-06-16
卖·BofA Brian Fenske [老化中] · LO Active Manager Positioning
ADSK LO Active Manager Positioning has fluctuated but generally trended lower, reaching around 0.8x by mid-2025.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty=0.8x · date=2025-06
- <a id="atom-fb0dd695ccb37afe"></a>🟦 2026-06-01
卖·BofA Brian Fenske · 机构持仓判断 · 机构持仓
LO's have downweighted exposure to this over the past 2-3 years
tags: 好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-81804db2ddefd034"></a>🟦 2026-05-28
X·@AIStockSavvy · Q1-2027 earning report published · 财报
$ADSK | Autodesk, Inc., Q1-2027 Earning Report
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: date=Q1-2027
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-e7652b087e23efaa"></a>🟦 2026-05-31
卖·BofA Brian Fenske · LO减持 · 持仓
LO's have downweighted exposure to ADSK over the past 2-3 years
tags: 好观点 · → daily
- <a id="atom-cc348adc7418550d"></a>🟦 2026-05-28
X·@AIStockSavvy · 收购 MaintainX 为现金加债务融资 · 并购/融资
Transaction funded through cash and debt financing.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
🟥 多头 takes (bullish) (14)
- <a id="atom-bc2fe930588a639b"></a>🟥 2026-05-12
X·@AIStockSavvy · BofA 目标价 · 评级目标价
$ADSK | 𝐀𝐮𝐭𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐬𝐤: BofA resumes coverage with 𝐁𝐮𝐲, initiates 𝐏𝐓 𝐚𝐭 $𝟑𝟎𝟎
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$300 · date=
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-2c5fa236a607eba3"></a>🟥 2026-06-18
newsletter·BNP · 有机增长加速 · 营收/增长
BNP expects organic growth to accelerate above 18% in FY28 as direct sales execution improves, AI monetization initiatives gain traction, and acquisitions such as MaintenX expand Autodesk's TAM
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: qty=>18% · context=FY28
- <a id="atom-9a264e46a319dbc5"></a>🟥 2026-06-18
newsletter·BNP · 营业利润率预期 · 利润率/估值
BNP sees a path to operating margins above 40% over the next few years, driven by lower sales and G&A costs under the new go-to-market model
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: qty=>40% · context=over the next few years
- <a id="atom-2121f7933918346d"></a>🟥 2026-06-18
X·@fiscal_ai · 当前估值 · 估值
Autodesk is now trading at its lowest valuation in 10+ years. Forward P/E: 14.98x
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: qty=14.98x · date=2026-06-18
[图: Autodesk (ADSK) 远期市盈率 (Forward P/E) 历史走势图 — 最低远期市盈率 (Min): 14.98; 总变化率 (Total Change): -71.05%; 复合年均增长率 (CAGR): -15.5%]
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-c77ed5cd2bce1ea6"></a>🟥 2026-05-31
卖·BofA Brian Fenske · 基础增长率 · 营收/增长率
Tomer writes that ADSK 'underlying growth' is tracking at 8%-9%
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=8%-9%
- <a id="atom-21514063a07c7965"></a>🟥 2026-06-01
卖·BofA Brian Fenske [老旧] · 评级 · 评级调整
BofA's Tomer Zilberman recently took over coverage of ADSK, with a Buy rating.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: rating=Buy
- <a id="atom-81addde3073ebb20"></a>🟥 2026-06-01
卖·BofA Brian Fenske · 软件被AI取代风险 · AI竞争/管理层表态
I think its software is entrenched across a wide array of important industries and customers, and seems likely to be one of the more obvious pieces of Software 'helped by' not replaced by AI
tags: 好观点 · → daily
- <a id="atom-cea0c4ff5bb9fafb"></a>🟥 2026-06-01
卖·BofA Brian Fenske · 增速加速预期 · 营收增长
some acceleration coming in 2H
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: timing=2H
- <a id="atom-751bbac69715e555"></a>🟥 2026-05-31
卖·BofA Brian Fenske [老旧] · 评级 · 评级调整
BofA's Tomer Zilberman recently took over coverage of ADSK with a Buy rating
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: rating=Buy
- <a id="atom-0b1126181243f912"></a>🟥 2026-05-31
卖·BofA Brian Fenske · 软件被AI助力 · 技术路线
ADSK software is one of the more obvious pieces of Software 'helped by' not replaced by AI
tags: 好观点 · → daily
- <a id="atom-39cd8209e996d747"></a>🟥 2026-05-31
卖·BofA Brian Fenske · 增速预期 · 营收/增长
Some acceleration coming in 2H for ADSK
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: qty=acceleration in 2H
- <a id="atom-affdd66de7886ced"></a>🟥 2026-06-18
newsletter·BNP [老化中] · 评级上调 · 评级调整
BNP initiates Autodesk with an Outperform rating
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: rating=Outperform
- <a id="atom-2c30e618eacb27d3"></a>🟥 2026-06-18
newsletter·BNP · 估值未反映增长和利润率 · 估值
BNP argues the stock's valuation fails to reflect its growth and margin profile
tags: 好观点 · → daily
- <a id="atom-ac844130b48b3f56"></a>🟥 2026-06-05
X·@BramVGenechten · Operating Profit consensus rise · 盈利能力/业绩指引
If consensus is right, $ADSK's Operating Profit will rise significantly
tags: 好观点 · → daily
📷 原图
🟥 空头 takes (bearish) (1)
- <a id="atom-5ec7bf2693474e84"></a>🟥 2026-06-29
卖·JPM · 避险吸引力因AI初创公司崛起而减弱 · 市场情绪/AI初创竞争
Vertical software, at least rhetorically, has been a place where investors were looking to hide, on the margin. That's starting to slowly fade away as new AI start-ups are making waves in the news.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
🟥 中性 takes (neutral) (1)
- <a id="atom-8d98e12422674c6c"></a>🟥 2026-06-05
X·@fiscal_ai · forward profit growth Adjusted tab recommendation · 盈利能力/业绩指引
I recommend using the "Adjusted" tab when looking at forward profit growth (especially for software companies). Adjusted metrics will show a more like-for-like comparison as consensus estimates are non-GAAP, and therefore strip out SBC
tags: 好思考 · → daily
📷 原图
🟦 新闻流 (squawk · 25)
展开新闻流 (FirstSquawk / financialjuice / wallstengine / DeItaone — 快讯, 非原创 take)
- <a id="atom-361f729f02557bf0"></a>🟦 2026-05-28
X·@wallstengine · Q1 2027 revenue actual · 营收
Revenue: $1.93B
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$1.93B · date=Q1 FY27
- <a id="atom-e849d8a786ff6f63"></a>🟦 2026-05-28
X·@wallstengine · Q1 2027 adj. EPS actual · 盈利能力
Adj. EPS: $2.99
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$2.99 · date=Q1 FY27
- <a id="atom-3ffe680a968aa15b"></a>🟦 2026-05-28
X·@wallstengine · Q1 2027 billings actual · 营收
Billings: $1.688B; +18% YoY
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$1.688B · date=Q1 FY27
- <a id="atom-e17c746ea4014c7e"></a>🟦 2026-05-28
X·@wallstengine · Q1 2027 non-GAAP operating margin actual · 毛利率
Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 39%; +2 pts YoY
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=39% · date=Q1 FY27
- <a id="atom-3ec66361636b32ab"></a>🟦 2026-05-28
X·@wallstengine · Q1 2027 free cash flow actual · 现金流
FCF: $876M; +58% YoY
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$876M · date=Q1 FY27
- <a id="atom-1a59eea2c1e55bf2"></a>🟦 2026-05-28
X·@wallstengine · Q2 FY27 revenue guidance · 业绩指引
Revenue: $2.005B-$2.015B
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$2.005B-$2.015B · date=Q2 FY27
- <a id="atom-85827f2314b82237"></a>🟦 2026-05-28
X·@wallstengine · Q2 FY27 adj. EPS guidance · 业绩指引
Adj. EPS: $3.10-$3.14
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$3.10-$3.14 · date=Q2 FY27
- <a id="atom-f4a123ba61a65626"></a>🟦 2026-05-28
X·@wallstengine · FY27 revenue guidance · 业绩指引
Revenue: $8.155B-$8.215B
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$8.155B-$8.215B · date=FY27
- <a id="atom-cdb150b7799b1e98"></a>🟦 2026-05-28
X·@wallstengine · FY27 adj. EPS guidance · 业绩指引
Adj. EPS: $12.40-$12.65
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$12.40-$12.65 · date=FY27
- <a id="atom-fe7e35a708b31995"></a>🟦 2026-05-28
X·@wallstengine · FY27 free cash flow guidance · 业绩指引
FCF: $2.725B-$2.800B
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$2.725B-$2.800B · date=FY27
- <a id="atom-98fd7f4a2f8dc37d"></a>🟦 2026-05-28
X·@wallstengine · Q1 2027 design revenue actual · 营收
Design Revenue: $1.612B; +18% YoY
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$1.612B · date=Q1 FY27
- <a id="atom-9ee1a3e63378f142"></a>🟦 2026-05-28
X·@wallstengine · Q1 2027 make revenue actual · 营收
Make Revenue: $224M; +25% YoY
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$224M · date=Q1 FY27
- <a id="atom-79c14394b0579c2b"></a>🟦 2026-05-28
X·@wallstengine · Q1 2027 other revenue actual · 营收
Other Revenue: $98M; +5% YoY
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$98M · date=Q1 FY27
- <a id="atom-551ebcb0979c2f33"></a>🟦 2026-05-28
X·@wallstengine · Q1 2027 AECO revenue actual · 营收
AECO Revenue: $970M; +20% YoY
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$970M · date=Q1 FY27
- <a id="atom-e5f33d58f86cfbb4"></a>🟦 2026-05-28
X·@wallstengine · Q1 2027 AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT revenue actual · 营收
AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT Revenue: $474M; +15% YoY
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$474M · date=Q1 FY27
- <a id="atom-470db5195cb0b93a"></a>🟦 2026-05-28
X·@wallstengine · Q1 2027 manufacturing revenue actual · 营收
Manufacturing Revenue: $367M; +19% YoY
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$367M · date=Q1 FY27
- <a id="atom-4eb17a57a606a2e2"></a>🟦 2026-05-28
X·@wallstengine · Q1 2027 media & entertainment revenue actual · 营收
Media & Entertainment Revenue: $86M; +13% YoY
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$86M · date=Q1 FY27
- <a id="atom-bca190c78ccb5fd7"></a>🟦 2026-05-28
X·@wallstengine · Q1 2027 RPO actual · 订单需求
RPO: $7.808B; +9% YoY
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$7.808B · date=Q1 FY27
- <a id="atom-5e35041ac3bb4ef5"></a>🟦 2026-05-28
X·@wallstengine · Q1 2027 current RPO actual · 订单需求
Current RPO: $5.383B; +18% YoY
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$5.383B · date=Q1 FY27
- <a id="atom-9bfa8a609e9e5ad6"></a>🟦 2026-05-28
X·@wallstengine · Q1 2027 deferred revenue actual · 营收
Deferred Revenue: $4.457B; +13% YoY
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$4.457B · date=Q1 FY27
- <a id="atom-d99f6ed78bf25b6f"></a>🟦 2026-05-28
X·@wallstengine · Q1 2027 unbilled deferred revenue actual · 营收
Unbilled Deferred Revenue: $3.351B; +4% YoY
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$3.351B · date=Q1 FY27
- <a id="atom-2166ba8c6b4aed45"></a>🟦 2026-05-28
X·@wallstengine · Q1 2027 GAAP operating margin actual · 盈利能力
GAAP Operating Margin: 28%; +14 pts YoY
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=28% · date=Q1 FY27
- <a id="atom-da1921e28ea76f70"></a>🟦 2026-05-28
X·@wallstengine · Q1 2027 GAAP EPS actual · 盈利能力
GAAP EPS: $2.32
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$2.32 · date=Q1 FY27
- <a id="atom-1b493ec51d0ded4d"></a>🟦 2026-05-28
X·@wallstengine · Q1 2027 operating cash flow actual · 现金流
Operating Cash Flow: $893M; +58% YoY
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$893M · date=Q1 FY27
- <a id="atom-2d696c93b9471cc1"></a>🟦 2026-05-28
X·@wallstengine · acquisition target · 并购
Acquisition: Autodesk to acquire MaintainX
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: target=MaintainX
⏱ 时间轴 (近 20)
- 🟥 2026-06-29 ·
narrative · 避险吸引力因AI初创公司崛起而减弱 · → daily
- 🟥 2026-06-18 ·
fact · 当前估值 · → daily
- 🟥 2026-06-18 ·
position · 评级上调 · → daily
- 🟥 2026-06-18 ·
forecast · 有机增长加速 · → daily
- 🟥 2026-06-18 ·
forecast · 营业利润率预期 · → daily
- 🟥 2026-06-18 ·
narrative · 估值未反映增长和利润率 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-16 ·
position · LO Active Manager Positioning · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-11 ·
position · LO Active Manager Positioning · → daily
- 🟥 2026-06-05 ·
narrative · Operating Profit consensus rise · → daily
- 🟥 2026-06-05 ·
narrative · forward profit growth Adjusted tab recommendation · → daily
- 🟥 2026-06-01 ·
position · 评级 · → daily
- 🟥 2026-06-01 ·
narrative · 软件被AI取代风险 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-01 ·
fact · 核心增速 · → daily
- 🟥 2026-06-01 ·
narrative · 增速加速预期 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-01 ·
fact · 收购MaintainX · → daily
- 🟦 2026-06-01 ·
fact · 机构持仓判断 · → daily
- 🟥 2026-05-31 ·
position · 评级 · → daily
- 🟥 2026-05-31 ·
narrative · 软件被AI助力 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-05-31 ·
fact · LO减持 · → daily
- 🟥 2026-05-31 ·
forecast · 基础增长率 · → daily
📊 板块级信号 · 软件板块 (43)
*以下是 软件板块 板块的信号 (ADSK 是成员), 非直接针对 ADSK — 供板块上下文参考*
展开板块信号
- 🟦▲ 2026-05-29 [twitter] · 超额收益维持至1999年底
总体来看，软件较科技板块的超额收益一直维持到了1999年底
- 🟥▲ 2026-05-11 [chat] · 仓位与基本面
SPX 强劲反弹但仓位仅 62% = 基本面驱动 → 软件股收入加速 + 利润率扩大但仓位为负 = 逆向做多机会
- 🟦▲ 2026-06-01 [newsletter] · 本月涨幅
软件板块5月涨幅21%
- 🟦▼ 2026-04-23 [chat] · 很难找到没跌 5% 的，MSFT 是罕见例外
很难找到没跌 5% 的软件股，MSFT 成为罕见例外
- 🟦▼ 2026-04-23 [twitter] · 估值已大幅下调
软件板块估值已大幅下调
- 🟦▼ 2026-04-23 [twitter] · 相较普通股票仍存在溢价
但相较普通股票仍存在溢价
- 🟥▼ 2026-04-08 [chat] · 终端价值重估
机构将软件比作“新的百货大楼” (new dept store)，认为在 AI 替代预期下缺乏买入理由，终端价值 (terminal value) 逻辑被破坏。
- 🟦▼ 2026-04-19 [chat] · 亚洲投资者共识交易方向
GS 销售指出，亚洲投资者坚守共识交易：做空软件
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