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MU 暴涨引发估值体系大辩论；NVDA 沦为 funding short 遭抛售

2026-05-26 周二 (ET) · 主帖 58 / 回复 235
以下部分引用 AI 总结，现阶段 AI 仍然有幻觉。请以内容的原文为准。
一些重点
  1. MU 估值辩论Arcuri 喊出 $1625 目标价，群内激辩 MU 是否该享有 NVDA 同等估值，多头押注 HBM 改变周期属性
  2. NVDA 沦为提款机NVDA 持续跑输 SOXX，被视作高贝塔半导体轮动的 funding short，多头认为下行有限只能熬
  3. 太空计算叙事Gavin Baker 预测 2028-2030 轨道计算成真，引发对地面 DC 基础设施远期做空的讨论
  4. ZS 暴跌启示ZS 因内存等组件涨价下调 FCF 利润率指引，AI 硬件通胀开始反噬下游软件公司现金流
  5. Anthropic 营收超车The Information 称 Anthropic 营收 run rate 达 $45B，已超 OpenAI 的 $30B+
  6. FROG 财报前瞻Stifel 报告指安全合规是核心变现点，群内认为 FROG 击败指引不难，但复苏程度存疑

1 半导体主线：MU 估值重塑与 NVDA 资金流出

MU 估值体系激辩 ⟪LINK24⟫

MU 估值重估激辩：多头押注 HBM 改变周期属性，空头警告无视历史规律 多头认为 HBM 带来结构性重估，空头警告无视历史周期会爆仓

  • Arcuri 惊人目标价: 卖方研报将 MU 目标价上调至 $1625，逻辑是“没有理由 MU 的 P/E 应该和 NVDA 有很大不同”[1]Zerocool · 05-26"Arcuri raised $MU to $1625?! WTF"。群内最初以为是串台了 SNDK，随后确认研报属实[2]S t · 05-26"here is the note - idk if its real or not."。
  • 多头：HBM 改变周期属性 群内多头认为 HBM 形成三寡头垄断，带来持久的多年盈利能力，理应获得更高估值[3]Tae Kim · 05-26"y'all are too skeptical. don't overcomplicate it. HBM - 3 company oligopoly is here to stay = durable multi-year earnings power = higher multiple. this time really is different."。强调这是代际计算转移，不应拘泥于传统的周期估值模型[4]Tae Kim · 05-26"…nd fundamentals. The reason why HBM is durable is this is a generational computing shift, every company in the world has to move over to AI compute …"。
  • 空头：警惕周期陷阱 空头反驳称，无视历史估值和 generalists 涌入是爆仓的前兆[5]ValueWithoutACatalyst · 05-26"Ignoring multiples/historicals/generalists coming in, is how you blow up"。另有观点指出，LTA（长期协议）占比不到 15%，且多为固定+浮动混合，不足以将周期资产转化为长期成长资产[6]Arun Dhar · 05-26"I have more sympathy for <@U0AQNVBTF5X> KISS philosophy ("numbers going up dummy") than I do about LTAs being a semi-per…"。
  • GS 视角的估值真相: 高盛指出，尽管 MU 股价大涨，但远期 P/E 仍接近 10x，因为盈利预期也同步涨了 10 倍。这意味着股价上涨是盈利驱动，而非单纯的估值扩张[7]H-Cap · 05-26"…% over 5 days, its best single-day performance since 2011), the forward P/E multiple is approaching only ~10x consensus — because earnings have also risen roughly 10x over the same 12-month period, leaving the multiple broadly…"。

NVDA 沦为提款机 ⟪LINK25⟫

NVDA 持续跑输大盘，被市场当作追逐高贝塔半导体的 funding short 基本面无虞，但资金轮动导致股价承压

  • Funding Short 属性: 群内指出 NVDA 成了首选的 funding short，因为其他 AI 芯片股每天都在大涨[8]TMT Breakout · 05-26"its the go to funding short given everything else in AI semis goes up 3%+ a day"。资金在追逐更具弹性的标的。
  • 多头策略：熬 多头认为 NVDA 估值便宜、基本面强劲，2027 年共识预期仍低 20%，当前只能“积累并等待”[9]RI · 05-26"We're complaining about a stock that is up 16.3% YTD over 5 months with a very cheap valuation, accelerated capital retu…"。随着其他标的涨幅受限，资金最终会回流 NVDA[10]RI · 05-26"Eventually the upside on everything else gets limited and you rotate back into NVDA. Agree with <@U0AQA4MJW2W> just sell vol on NVDA and the ups…"。
  • 估值上限论: 有分析认为 NVDA 的远期市盈率很难再超过 20-25x，上涨空间受限，建议通过卖出波动率或买入看涨期权价差来交易[11]Ted · 05-26"I think upside is also capped. I think market has basically said we are never getting a &gt;20x fwd mult on this thing a…"。

2 前沿科技与软件：太空计算与 AI 通胀

太空计算叙事 ⟪LINK26⟫

Gavin Baker 抛出 2028-2030 轨道计算时间表，引发对地面 DC 的远期担忧

  • 做空地面 DC？: 有群友援引 Gavin Baker 的预测（2028下半年至2030上半年轨道计算成为现实），提问是否该开始做空数据中心、电力和冷却板块[12]Maverick · 05-26"Gavin Baker: “Second-half of 28 to first half of 2030 would be my point prediction [for orbital compute being a reality]…"。
  • 增量需求论: 有观点反驳称，太空数据中心支持者认为地球上同样需要尽可能多的算力，太空计算不会消除地面瓶颈[13]Chris · 05-26"from the data center in space people, they all seem to think you are going to need as much as we can on earth as well. So doesnt really alter that. (i think elon put out a chart…"。

ZS 暴跌与 AI 通胀 ⟪LINK27⟫

ZS 因硬件成本上升下调 FCF 指引，AI 驱动的组件通胀开始反噬下游软件

  • FCF 指引下调: ZS 盘后暴跌，主因是将全年 FCF 利润率指引从 ~26.75% 下调至 ~23%，并警告下财年资本支出占营收比重将上升 ~200bp[14]H-Cap · 05-27"…in after-hours trading and a big driver of the slump is the reduction in free cash flow margin guidance for the year (from ~26.75% to ~23%) as the company plans to spend more on capex (ZS also warned…"。
  • 内存涨价背锅: VK 研报指出，Capex 增加并非因为购买更多设备，而是内存等组件涨价 → 硬件交付加速/成本飙升 → 下调 FCF 指引，AI 硬件通胀开始反噬下游软件[14]H-Cap · 05-27"… is buying a lot of extra equipment, but instead due to the spike in component prices, especially memory (which isn’t just raising server/storage costs but causing …"。

Anthropic 营收超车 ⟪LINK28⟫

The Information 爆料 Anthropic 营收 run rate 达 $45B，超越 OpenAI

  • 营收数据对比: 据报道，Anthropic 年化营收 run rate 接近 $45B，而 OpenAI 刚超过 $30B（预估当前约 $33B），Anthropic 营收高出约 35%[15]Akh · 05-27"The Information: Anthropic was recently generating revenue at an annualized rate of close to $45 billion. OpenAI’s curre…"。

FROG 财报前瞻 ⟪LINK29⟫

Stifel 报告强调安全合规是核心变现点，群内对 FROG 击败指引有信心但复苏预期不高

  • 安全附加费逻辑: Stifel 发现安全/合规是主要变现途径（52% 的高级安全附加费），这与 GitLab Ultimate 的剧本一致[16]Randy Marsh · 05-27"…hink also reads well for $GTLB. Stifel's core finding, that security/compliance is the dominant monetization vector (52% premium security attach, near-universal expansion intent), is the same playbook dri…"。
  • AI 带来的结构性缓冲: AI 生成代码增多 + 去重技术吸收工件增长 + AI 生产力吸收席位增长 = 顺风效应被结构性减弱[16]Randy Marsh · 05-27"…pansion. AI is generating more artifacts and more code, but dedup absorbs the artifact lift and AI-driven productivity absorbs the seat lift. Tailwind exists at both layers but is structurally muted v…"。群内预计击败指引不难，但不指望强劲复苏。