AI 软件商业化 ⟪LINK25⟫
市场开始为 Agent 驱动的收入定价，但护城河之争仍在继续 DDOG/SNOW 领涨引发对 AI SaaS 商业化的讨论，但 SOR 与通用 LLM 的优劣仍存分歧
- DDOG/SNOW 拐点: 周五软件板块大涨，市场首次开始为 Agent 驱动的收入定价，与年初叙事 180 度大反转[1]Mark Chen · 05-30"Some random thoughts after the big breakout in software on Friday. It seems Friday was the first day the market started …"。DDOG 财报后大涨 30% = AI 收入加速兑现，SNOW 和 OKTA 有望跟进[1]Mark Chen · 05-30"Some random thoughts after the big breakout in software on Friday. It seems Friday was the first day the market started …"。
- SOR vs 通用 LLM: 多头认为 SNOW Cortex Code = 领域特定 Agent 具竞争力，Incumbent 数据 + 合规优势明显[2]Mike · 05-30"Isn't the generalisable learning / idea from SNOW’s Cortex Code that a domain specific harness and agent is compelling a…"。反方指出：企业数据仓库无法塞进 1PB+ 上下文窗口，Claude Code 仅为文本预测引擎 ≠ 分布式数据处理引擎[3]MapleSyrup · 05-31"<@U0AQ84U8XDL> this is interesting. Spitalballing. I feel like the bulls have been hanging their head on this narrative …"。
- OKTA 订单转化: OKTA 新 Agent identity 4 月 GA → 推动更高 ACV，管理层对 pipeline 信心达过去 6 个季度最高[4]Mark Chen · 05-30"Not a specific news I can point to, but have been digging deeper into okta and found the tone pretty decent. Their new a…"。但有观点认为目前上涨仅为逼空，未见底层业务实质性叙事转变[5]SmutCap · 05-30"agreed, have not seen any narrative shift re underlying business, Terminal value, etc. Just seemed very squeezy"。
半导体供应链 ⟪LINK26⟫
AI 基础设施强劲，测试、CPO、CCL 环节迎机遇 Rubin 架构升级带来多环节增量需求，Kioxia 成本优势凸显
- MTK 替代 Broadcom: 消息称 Google 取消 Broadcom TPU v9 Pumafish，MTK Humufish (2nm + HBM4e) 成为核心下一代 TPU 平台，而 Broadcom v9 停留在 3nm + HBM3e[6]Terminal Junkie · 05-30"Random Thoughts: 1. Not so much to talk about this week, been very busy with work. But honestly, it feels like some sort…"。重大定位转变 = MTK 业绩预期或大幅提升。
- 测试环节: 测试再次成为瓶颈，GPU 最终测试时间：Blackwell 约 850 秒 → Rubin 约 1,200 秒[6]Terminal Junkie · 05-30"…e could rise from around 850 seconds on Blackwell to around 1,200 seconds on Rubin. The bigger point is that test demand is broadenin…"。WinWay 测试插座收入预计 2025-2028 年 CAGR 达 94%[6]Terminal Junkie · 05-30"…ation. Citi expects WinWay test socket revenue to grow at a 94% CAGR from 2025-2028. Capacity should also be front-loaded, …"。
- CPO 趋势: Rubin Ultra 架构下，NVL576 物理规模超出铜缆极限 → 2026-2027 年转向交换机侧 CPO + 直接光链路[6]Terminal Junkie · 05-30"Random Thoughts: 1. Not so much to talk about this week, been very busy with work. But honestly, it feels like some sort…"。Google、NVIDIA + 华为正推动 CPO 并消耗所有激光器供应[7]Terminal Junkie · 05-30"<@U0AQA3EQQAW> Not quite sure about the strategy for both AMD and AWS, but I’m pretty sure pluggable transceivers will b…"。
- CCL 短缺: CCL 短缺加剧，设备瓶颈 + 高端材料短缺 → 紧张局势持续至 2026H2[6]Terminal Junkie · 05-30"Random Thoughts: 1. Not so much to talk about this week, been very busy with work. But honestly, it feels like some sort…"。Kingboard Laminates 提价：CCL ASP +10%，预浸料 +20%[6]Terminal Junkie · 05-30"…o becoming more and more interesting. KBL raised CCL ASP by 10% and prepreg by 20% earlier this week. With the current supp…"。
- Kioxia 成本优势: UBS 估计晶圆成本：Kioxia 约 $2k vs 三星 $4k vs 美光/SK海力士 $6k[6]Terminal Junkie · 05-30"…the Kioxia story. UBS estimates Kioxia wafer cost at around US$2k, versus Samsung at around US$4k and Micron/SK Hynix at arou…"。横向扩展 + CBA 架构 = 巨大成本优势。
INTC 18A 良率 ⟪LINK27⟫
INTC 18A 良率引争议，多头认为 50% 预期过低 基于历史改善速度推演，当前良率应在 65-70%
- 良率推演: 空头传闻 18A 良率仅 50%[8]ALC · 05-31"https://x.com/jukan05/status/2060869858641027275?s=46"。多头反驳：去年 10/11 月 IR 称良率每月改善 7-8%，若当前仅 50%，意味着当时仅 30%，INTC 不可能在那种水平下 HVM Panther Lake → 当前合理良率应为 65-70%[9]John · 06-01"50% is too low. My guess is 65-70%. Last Oct or Nov, the VP of IR said 18a yield was improving 7-8% per month (a relativ…"。