Trump 妥协达成两周停火协议，市场重回 AI 主线

两周停火达成 宏观·利好

宏观压制解除，市场重回 Risk-On Trump 接受巴基斯坦调停，同意两周双边停火，前提是伊朗同意全面、立即、安全地开放霍尔木兹海峡[9]Daniel · 04-07"Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, …"

• 原油暴跌/日经飙升: 原油价格单日暴跌 15%[10]kkhajavi7 · 04-07"oil down 15 - geez"，OVX 盘中一度大涨后回落。美股指期货盘后飙升，日经 225 6月合约在新加坡大涨 4.8%[11]Mike · 04-07"Nikkei 225 June futures gain 4.8% in Singapore - bb headline"。
• 接受 10 点计划 = 伊朗占优: Trump 接受了伊朗的 10 点计划作为谈判基础[9]Daniel · 04-07"Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, …"，甚至接受了霍尔木兹海峡的过路费条款[12]Akh · 04-08"Interesting, Trump accepted the Hormuz toll as part of ceasefire"。群友认为这表明伊朗在谈判中占据优势[13]Arun Dhar · 04-08"Why wouldn't he? Iran has the stronger cards / better negotiating position. So they will get big concessions if a deal i…"。
• 通航细节仍有博弈空间: 伊朗外长表示通航需要与武装部队协调并考虑技术限制，留下操作空间[14]kkhajavi7 · 04-07"The statement from the foreign minister noted that safe passage through Hormuz would be possible “via coordination with …"。市场传言停火期间每天允许 10-15 艘船通过[15]Ken · 04-08"10-15 ships/day?"，但群友认为股市会看透这些细节，只要不陷入僵局即可[16]JP · 04-08"10-15/day but equities can look through. more important bit is that deal terms actually seem bridgeable"。

对 PM 来说 = 宏观压制解除，重回微观基本面交易 只要油价不继续飙升，通胀担忧缓解，市场将重新拥抱 AI 和科技主线。