AMD 迎催化 ⟪LINK20⟫
Anthropic 首次引入 AMD GPU，CPU 逻辑发酵
- MI450 打入 Anthropic: 产业交流显示，Anthropic 计划从 MI450 开始首次将 AMD GPU 纳入其硬件栈[1]TMTFOCUSED · 04-16"… into their hardware stack for the first time starting from MI450."，Edgewater 亦给出积极评价[2]TMTFOCUSED · 04-16"edgewater +ve also"。
- 最具弹性的标的: 群内共识认为在 CPU 主题升温背景下，AMD 具备最强爆发力，因其 GPU 市场份额目前依然较小[3]Akh · 04-16"AMD most torque, GPU still small market share"。
TSM 财报博弈 ⟪LINK21⟫
财报后惯性抛售，但基本面依然强劲
- Sell the news: 尽管资本支出指引和基本面极佳，短线交易员依然选择在财报日抛售（有人担忧利润率见顶）[4]Tae Kim · 04-16"…aders selling the news. capex comments and biz fundies look stellar"[5]Jukan · 04-16"Some people are selling TSMC because they think this is the peak for its margins."。
- 半导体的货基: 多头无视短期波动，将其视为支撑 40 万亿市值的绝对垄断者，甚至有 PM 将 AMD 获利盘直接转入 TSM，称其为“半导体的货币市场基金”[6]RI · 04-16"I’ll keep buying the de-facto monopoly underpinning $40 trn of market cap at a below mkt p/e"[7]Isaac · 04-16"TSM is the money market fund for semis. Prudence!"。
中国 AI 交易 ⟪LINK22⟫
云业务成核心抓手，BABA 提价与资金回流
- BABA 聚焦云业务: BABA 明确将外卖等业务投资减半（约缩减 400 亿人民币），以将资金回流至云投资[8]unclebobs · 04-16"BABA is scaling back investments (~Rmb 80bn -> -Rmb 40bn) to plough back to Cloud investments"；同时 Alicloud 提价 2-7% 以转嫁成本[9]davii · 04-16"Raised prices for Alicloud 2-7%, but more just pass through from higher cost from what I un…"。
- Tekne 唱多逻辑: Tekne Capital 创始人指出，中国 AI 建设（如 GDS、Tongfu）因刚经历熊市，缺乏长周期资本投入，反而没有美国市场的“产能过剩”风险[10]BTJ · 04-16"…s, you can have comfort in knowing you aren't going to have oversupply. Also, the big AI companies in the U.S., including OpenAI, …"。
OpenAI 算力订单 ⟪LINK23⟫
OpenAI 200亿绑定 Cerebras，被视作财务工程
- 天价订单换股权: OpenAI 计划在未来三年内斥资超 200 亿美元使用 Cerebras 芯片，并获取其股权（Cerebras 目标 IPO 估值 350 亿）[11]Akh · 04-17"OpenAI plans $20B+ spending on Cerebras chips, to receive equity stake, says T…"[12]Akh · 04-17"Cerebras eyeing $35B valuation in IPO"。
- 实质影响存疑: 群内对该交易的实际业务增量持保留态度，认为更像是推高估值的“财务工程”[13]Jukan · 04-17"What kind of financial engineering is this now?"。