GDS

16 atoms · 跨 3 天 · 首见 2026-04-04 · 最近 2026-06-09

三色: 🟦 fact 7 · 🟥 take 9 · stance ▲12/▼1/◆0

来源: 群 1 · X 15

时态: fresh:15 · stale:1

标签: 好数字:12 · 好观点:8 · 好思考:4

预测 (forecast) (10)

• 2026-04-04 · compute capacity shortage
  Chinese data center operator with 3 main hyperscaler clients ( $BABA Tencent and Bytedance) Just like the U.S., China is seeing a significant compute capacity shortage.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: direction=shortage
• 2026-04-04 · DC square footage needed
  Given the lower performance chip that will make up 75% + of compute, they will need roughly 2x the DC square footage than US AI will require.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=2x · direction=greater
• 2026-04-04 · consensus EBITDA growth forecast
  Consensus expects an incremental 1bn RMB in EBITDA between today and 2028 which implies a silly 435MW in net new capacity.
  tags: 好数字·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=1bn RMB · date=2028
• 2026-04-04 · net new capacity needed for consensus
  Consensus expects an incremental 1bn RMB in EBITDA between today and 2028 which implies a silly 435MW in net new capacity.
  tags: 好数字·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=435MW
• 2026-04-04 · bookings forecast
  we think they will finish the year at more than 1GW in bookings.
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=1GW · date=end of year
• 2026-04-04 · fair EBITDA multiple
  We think the GDS China biz is worth >15x EBITDA implying a stock that could more than double if we’re right.
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=15x
• 2026-04-04 · Chinese AI chip demand
  Chinese AI chip demand (ex $NVDA) is 4-5GW next year vs. significantly less than 1GW last year. Hypergrowth.
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=4-5GW · date=next year
• 2026-04-04 · EBITDA per MW
  Every MW is an incremental 2.3mn RMB in EBITDA once stabilized.
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=2.3mn RMB
• 2026-04-04 · unlevered IRR
  Numbers wise, we think core DC in China unlevered IRR is low teens
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=low teens · direction=positive
• 2026-04-04 · stock upside
  implying a stock that could more than double if we’re right.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=more than double

立场 (position) (1)

事实 (fact) (5)

• 2026-06-09 · China preparing to spend ~$295 billion over next 5 years on data centers
  GDS Holdings ADRS (GDS) rise along with other Chinese cloud providers as people familiar with the matter said that China is preparing to spend around $295 billion over the next five years to build data centers across the country.
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=~$295 billion · date=over next 5 years
• 2026-04-04 · DC project approval rate
  Only 30-40% of total DC MWage is being currently approved but GDS has 100% approval rate implying significant share gains.
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=100%
• 2026-04-04 · balance sheet capacity
  the current balance sheet can support >2.5GW in build out.
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=2.5GW
• 2026-04-04 · MOU from customers YTD
  They already have 500mw in MOU from customers YTD, and we think they will finish the year at more than 1GW in bookings.
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=500mw · date=YTD
• 2026-04-04 · EBITDA multiple ex Dayone
  GDS trades on 9x EBITDA ex the Dayone stake
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=9x

时间轴 (近 20)

• 2026-06-09 · fact · China preparing to spend ~$295 billion over next 5 years on · → daily
• 2026-04-16 · position · 成为中国云基础设施资金首选 · → daily
• 2026-04-04 · forecast · compute capacity shortage · → daily
• 2026-04-04 · forecast · DC square footage needed · → daily
• 2026-04-04 · forecast · Chinese AI chip demand · → daily
• 2026-04-04 · fact · DC project approval rate · → daily
• 2026-04-04 · fact · MOU from customers YTD · → daily
• 2026-04-04 · forecast · bookings forecast · → daily
• 2026-04-04 · forecast · EBITDA per MW · → daily
• 2026-04-04 · forecast · consensus EBITDA growth forecast · → daily
• 2026-04-04 · forecast · net new capacity needed for consensus · → daily
• 2026-04-04 · forecast · unlevered IRR · → daily
• 2026-04-04 · fact · balance sheet capacity · → daily
• 2026-04-04 · fact · EBITDA multiple ex Dayone · → daily
• 2026-04-04 · forecast · fair EBITDA multiple · → daily
• 2026-04-04 · forecast · stock upside · → daily

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