以下部分引用 AI 总结，现阶段 AI 仍然有幻觉。请以内容的原文为准。
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Gavin Baker
10 atoms · 跨 7 天 · 首见 2026-04-15 · 最近 2026-06-17
三色: 🟦 fact 1 · 🟥 take 9 · stance ▲6/▼2/◆1
来源: 群 2 · X 8
时态: fresh:5 · stale:3 · aging:2
标签: 好观点:7 · 好思考:4 · 好数字:1 · 好信源:1
叙事 (narrative) (3)
- 2026-05-24 · 认为不是 AI 泡沫
He thinks AI is different and that we are NOT in a bubble
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: date= · direction= · qty=
- 2026-05-18 · 观点: 可能避免AI泡沫
I am optimistic that we may avoid a bubble this time. The reason we are going to avoid it is because we have fundamental shortages of watts and wafers.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
- 2026-05-18 · 观点: AI需求已存在且增长
The demand is already here. Today. It is happening now in AI.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
预测 (forecast) (2)
- 2026-05-26 · 轨道计算时间表预测
Gavin Baker: "Second-half of 28 to first half of 2030 would be my point prediction [for orbital compute being a reality]."
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: date=2028 下半年到 2030 上半年
- 2026-04-15 · 认为如果拒绝向中国出售B30等降级GPU，中国可能发展出光刻互联的自主半导体生态系统并超越美国AI
“if we deny them GPUs like the B30 that are deprecated relative to the ones available to America, and as a consequence of this denial China develops their own semiconductor ecosystem … they actually might end up surpassing America in AI.”
tags: 好思考 · → daily
立场 (position) (5)
- 2026-06-16
[老化中] · 瓶颈交易观点
Gavin Baker 认为 bottleneck trade 接近尾声
tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
- 2026-06-17
[老化中] · position on Chinese AI models
those of you, like Gavin Baker, who believe Chinese AI models owe their success to 'distilling' US models
tags: 好观点 · → daily
展开 3 条老旧 / 已过期
- 2026-04-16
[老旧] · 进一步用比喻说明出售旧火箭阻止中国登月和开发洲际弹道导弹是好的决策
“If selling them older, much less powerful rockets kept them from getting to the moon and also kept them from developing ICBMs, I think that would have been a good decision.”
tags: 好思考 · → daily
- 2026-04-15
[老旧] · 主张先向美国出售先进GPU，再向中国出售降级版本的政策巩固美国主导地位
“selling advanced GPUs to America first and then deprecated versions to China later is a good policy that actually cements American dominance and eliminates the risk that China surpasses us in AI.”
tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
- 2026-04-15
[老旧] · 用出售1960年代不可重复使用火箭的比喻说明向中国出售旧GPU的好处
“we are selling them 1960s era rockets that are not reusable while keeping the Falcon 9 and Starship for ourselves to keep China from developing their own rocket industry that might end up surpassing our own.”
tags: 好思考 · → daily
时间轴 (近 20)
- 2026-06-17 ·
position · position on Chinese AI models · → daily
- 2026-06-16 ·
position · 瓶颈交易观点 · → daily
- 2026-05-26 ·
forecast · 轨道计算时间表预测 · → daily
- 2026-05-24 ·
narrative · 认为不是 AI 泡沫 · → daily
- 2026-05-18 ·
narrative · 观点: 可能避免AI泡沫 · → daily
- 2026-05-18 ·
narrative · 观点: AI需求已存在且增长 · → daily
- 2026-04-16 ·
position · 进一步用比喻说明出售旧火箭阻止中国登月和开发洲际弹道导弹是好的决策 · → daily
- 2026-04-15 ·
position · 主张先向美国出售先进GPU，再向中国出售降级版本的政策巩固美国主导地位 · → daily
- 2026-04-15 ·
forecast · 认为如果拒绝向中国出售B30等降级GPU，中国可能发展出光刻互联的自主半导体生态系统并超越美国AI · → daily
- 2026-04-15 ·
position · 用出售1960年代不可重复使用火箭的比喻说明向中国出售旧GPU的好处 · → daily
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