中东地缘冲突升温引发原油担忧；AI 算力需求强劲与软件替代之争发酵

CapEx 预期上调 多·算力需求

超大厂 FY27 CapEx 预期破 $1T = 算力需求依然强劲

• FY27 预期: JPM 将 FY27 超大厂 CapEx 预期上调：AMZN 约 $300B，GOOGL $275B，MSFT $240B，META 约 $200B，总计突破 $1T 大关[1]Ian · 05-04"For FY27 CapEx, pre-earnings buyside estimates were AMZN at $200B, GOOGL at $240B, MSFT at $190B, and META at $175B. Pos…"。
• 旧卡涨价: 由于需求旺盛，旧款 H100 的租赁价格甚至高于最初租赁时的价格，利好 Neoclouds 的 ROI[2]DC · 05-04"Saw some datapoints on compute pricing for older H100s actually going up vs when they were first leased given the high d…"。

NOW vs AI 实验室 争论·软件替代

AI 颠覆传统软件的举证责任在 AI 实验室，而非 incumbents NOW 坚持消费模型，而 AI 实验室 ARR 快速增长引发替代担忧

• ARR 对比: OpenAI ARR 达 $25B，而 NOW 仅 $14B，Anthropic 单季度 ARR 增长是 NOW 的 1.5 倍[11]Mo W · 05-04"Uhh OAI at $25bn ARR vs. NOW $14bn... Anthropic did 1.5x NOW's entire ARR 1qtr sequentially"。
• 谁为 Token 买单: 反驳观点指出，目前正是软件公司在为 AI Token 买单，AI 实验室短期内无法完全取代企业中台，而是通过千刀万剐式缓慢渗透[12]Randy Marsh · 05-04"This whole AI will kill software misses the argument that it is the software guys paying for tokens"[13]Randy Marsh · 05-04"death by thousand cuts vs frontal assault"。

伊朗袭击阿联酋 观察·地缘风险

伊朗袭击阿联酋 + 美军强穿霍尔木兹海峡 = 中东地缘风险骤升

• 袭击确认: 阿联酋国防部确认遭到伊朗无人机和导弹袭击[17]S t · 05-04"It’s confirmed from MOD UAE Crazy sick irgc"，警报真实存在[18]S t · 05-04"It's not fake news. Iv got family there. The alerts are real. It makes no sense true but they're doing it."。
• 美军行动: 美国海军两艘驱逐舰在阿帕奇直升机掩护下，穿越霍尔木兹海峡，拦截了伊朗的小艇、导弹和无人机[19]John · 05-05"why is the US being so bold right now, wow May 4, 2026 / 8:43 PM EDT / CBS News • Washington — Two U.S. Navy destroyers …"，试图打通该海峡[20]ALC · 05-04"Ok let me amend: *attempting* to open the strait.. I'm taking US Navy at face value and that's basically what Cooper jus…"。
• 市场反应: 9 月 WTI 原油期货上涨 4% 至 $91[21]kkhajavi7 · 05-04"joking aside - september wti up 4% to 91"，群友担忧若战争重启市场将暴跌[22]S t · 05-04"probably tanks if war restarts buy the dip if so? and in what?"。

对 PM 来说 = 需密切关注原油价格及潜在的供应链中断风险