AAOI 多空对决 ⟪LINK30⟫
Q1 财报不及预期但 Q4 利润率指引达 40%，多空分歧加剧 空头质疑管理层信誉，多头押注产能扩张与利润率提升。
- 空头：产能与信誉双重缺失 管理层屡次不及预期 + 作为大厂第四供应商（Player D）→ 解决产能问题难度极大，高指引被指“画大饼” [4]atl42 · 05-08"lol the guide makes absolutely zero sense and this mgmt team has a long history of blowing people up. this is going to e…" [5]atl42 · 05-08"whats a better short? i dont think these guys are going to have that easy of a time solving the capacity issues they're …"。
- 多头：周期向上 + 利润率扩张 Q1 漏判不重要 = 800G 尚未完全爬坡；FY27 营收上调至 $6Bn + Q4 利润率指引达 40% → 市场在上升周期愿给容忍度 [6]futuristoptical1312 · 05-08"The valuation is well justified - they upped FY27 numbers to almost 6Bn run rate - that's 2x P/S, nothing." [7]futuristoptical1312 · 05-08"Nobody cared about 1Q miss, that's the past. They told you previously that 1Q didn't matter, because the 800G didn't eve…" [8]futuristoptical1312 · 05-08"and they guided that 4Q margins will reach 40%, so it's not just revenue upside, but margins improve too"。
Broadcom 代工遇阻 ⟪LINK31⟫
OpenAI $180亿定制芯片代工遇阻，Hock Tan 或在 6 月财报澄清 Nexus 计划首期需 1.3 GW 数据中心容量，定制芯片 Jalapeno 旨在提升能效。
- 融资与产能瓶颈: Broadcom 融资首期芯片生产遇阻 = 需 1.3 GW 容量 + $180亿成本；完整 Nexus 计划达 10 GW → 仅芯片生产成本即达 $1800亿 [9]Maverick · 05-07"Months later, the companies are negotiating an agreement for Broadcom to finance the first phase of chip production, whi…"。
- Jalapeno 芯片: OpenAI 首款定制芯片 Jalapeno 旨在比 NVDA 通用 GPU 更高效运行现有模型 [10]Hunter · 05-07""OpenAI’s first custom chip, code-named Jalapeno, is designed to power its existing models more efficiently than Nvidia’…"。
- 市场预期: 群内预期 Hock Tan 将在 6 月 3 日辟谣；Cerebras 替代 Broadcom 的可能性被认为极低 [11]SemiStud · 05-07"on June 3rd Hock is going to say something to the effect "those articles are bullshit, things are progressing as planned…" [12]Maverick · 05-07"cerebras a stretch"。
Neoclouds 估值探讨 ⟪LINK32⟫
供需缺口持续性存疑，资金更偏好存储板块 群内对 Neoclouds 的商业模式及估值上限展开讨论。
- 商业模式受疑: 被比作“柠檬水摊”，缺乏定价权，完全依赖英伟达的意愿 [13]Arun Dhar · 05-07"IREN is v interesting. on CRWV <@U0ARTLLG7DJ> why isn't the big picture that they're a lemonade stand who's a price take…"。
- 估值测算: 以 CRWV 为例，若达到 5GW 产能，按 $8Bn/GW 营收和 15% 利润率计算，稳态 EBIT 为 $6Bn [14]RootBacco · 05-07"Below was a bit buried in older thread on valuing neoclouds - maybe relevant here. Thoughts appreciated :) “Was thinking…"。
- 资金流向存储: 若需求失衡持续，资金更倾向于购买 SNDK 和 MU 等执行力强的存储标的 [15]Arun Dhar · 05-07"if you think demand imbalance persists (and there's a decision tree here which is a f(n) of cadence of newer sota models…"。
Figma 业绩预期 ⟪LINK33⟫
75% 大客户使用 AI 带来实质利好，但 6x+ 远期市销率让资金犹豫 群内看好 Figma 本季度表现，但对其长期估值存在分歧。
- AI 赋能: 75% 的大客户每周使用 AI，可能是首个从 AI 中获得实质性利好的非基础设施软件 [16]Penjamin Williams Louis · 05-07"75% of FIG customers >$10k in arr used AI weekly. Credit plus model went into affect in March. Feedback has been posi…"。
- 估值担忧: 相比 BRZE 等增速相近的公司，6x+ 的远期销售倍数显得偏高 [17]Hunter · 05-07"I know it's not apples to apples at all but I have a hard time getting behind the 6x+ fwd sales multiple when there's na…"。
DDOG 目标价上调 ⟪LINK34⟫
CPU 监控需求增长，Stifel 上调目标价至 $305 群内认为 DDOG 能从 AI 带来的 CPU 监控需求中获益。
- 目标价上调: Stifel 将 DDOG 目标价上调至 $305 [18]Akh · 05-07"Stifel raises DDOG to $305 :eyes:"。
- 逻辑支撑: 更多 CPU 逻辑意味着更多工作流需要监控，DDOG 有望从中获益 [19]Mark Chen · 05-07"This might be too much to imagine, but have a feeling that the more CPU logic also means these CPU induced workflow coul…"。
Waymo IPO 猜测 ⟪LINK35⟫
Waymo 设资本市场主管释放 IPO 信号，但支付/SaaS 同行暴跌压制短期估值 Waymo 招聘资本市场主管引发关注，但市场环境并不利于 IPO。
- 招聘动作: Waymo 招聘资本市场、投资者关系和交易财务主管，引发 IPO 猜测 [20]AB · 05-08"https://careers.withwaymo.com/jobs/head-of-capital-markets-investor-relations-and-deal-finance-mountain-view-california-…"。
- 市场环境: 同行如 Adyen、PYPL 表现疲软，此时 IPO 难度较大 [21]AB · 05-09"Hard to see Stripe coming public when $Adyey $pypl $Xyz closest peers are getting smoked."。