石油物理紧缺逼近，中国成解局关键点；AAOI 指引超预期引爆多空对决

石油紧缺逼近 争论·地缘推演

物理紧缺是核心驱动，中国囤油态度决定局势走向 群内长文推演，认为纸面价格被压制，但物理短缺将至[1]Arun Dhar · 05-07"Going back to my views on the (likely manipulated) paper oil market, I'd like to think out loud coz I'm a taker of educa…"

• 库存见底: 全球库存大幅下降，买卖价差缩窄至 2-4 周[1]Arun Dhar · 05-07"Going back to my views on the (likely manipulated) paper oil market, I'd like to think out loud coz I'm a taker of educa…"，ConocoPhillips 警告 6-7 月可能出现严重短缺[2]kkhajavi7 · 05-08"The oil market had a grace period in March and April as tankers that departed the Persian Gulf before the war were still…"
• 终局推演: 核心分歧在于霍尔木兹海峡最终是否由伊朗控制。市场正押注无伊朗控制的 B 结局（IRGC 崩溃或妥协）[1]Arun Dhar · 05-07"Going back to my views on the (likely manipulated) paper oil market, I'd like to think out loud coz I'm a taker of educa…"
• 中国底牌: 中国正逆势囤油，且大幅增产煤炭，目前仅短缺硫磺和甲醇。其拥有数月储备，并不急于促成和谈，将决定最终结局[1]Arun Dhar · 05-07"Going back to my views on the (likely manipulated) paper oil market, I'd like to think out loud coz I'm a taker of educa…"[3]Arun Dhar · 05-07"On China I have longer out than November coz they've really turned on the coal production. It’s short sulfur. Which is a…"

对 PM 来说 = 纸面价格与物理现实脱节，做多实物紧缺逻辑更稳

AAOI 多空激辩 争论·业绩指引

Q1 业绩拉垮但长线指引极度乐观，市场选择相信周期 空头质疑管理层信用，多头押注 800G 产能爬坡[4]futuristoptical1312 · 05-08"but market gives them benefit of doubt because we are in a big upcycle and they have scarcity value"

• 空头逻辑: 管理层有多次不及预期历史，Q1 产能问题难解，作为第四供应商地位尴尬[5]atl42 · 05-08"lol the guide makes absolutely zero sense and this mgmt team has a long history of blowing people up. this is going to e…"
• 多头反击: FY27 营收指引上调至 $6B，对应 2x P/S 估值极低[6]futuristoptical1312 · 05-08"The valuation is well justified - they upped FY27 numbers to almost 6Bn run rate - that's 2x P/S, nothing."，Q4 毛利率指引达 40%[7]futuristoptical1312 · 05-08"and they guided that 4Q margins will reach 40%, so it's not just revenue upside, but margins improve too"
• 市场定价: 市场忽略 Q1 过去式，给予 AI 上行周期和稀缺性溢价[4]futuristoptical1312 · 05-08"but market gives them benefit of doubt because we are in a big upcycle and they have scarcity value"