AI 基础设施与 Neocloud 竞争格局演变；中东地缘博弈下的原油定价焦虑

2026-05-18 周一 (ET) · 主帖 82 / 回复 394

以下部分引用 AI 总结，现阶段 AI 仍然有幻觉。请以内容的原文为准。

一些重点

1 AI 基础设施与硬件

NAND 价格飙升阻碍其在 AI 数据中心对 HDD 的替代进程 SanDisk 高管指出，NAND 与 HDD 的成本差距已扩大至 20-25 倍，远超 2-3 倍的替代阈值。

TCO 劣势拉大: AI 驱动 NAND 涨价 → TCO 劣势拉大 → 部分需求或回流 HDD[1]Maverick · 05-19"AI-driven memory demand has sent NAND prices soaring more than 20-fold, but flash memory and hard drive makers alike rem…"。
产能扩张谨慎: NAND 厂多年亏损 + 扩产周期长达 15 个月 → 对大规模扩产持保守态度，短期供应难增[1]Maverick · 05-19"AI-driven memory demand has sent NAND prices soaring more than 20-fold, but flash memory and hard drive makers alike rem…"。
光模块的估值逻辑: 光模块（如 LITE）估值溢价 = 数据中心激光器产品差异化程度 > 存储器[2]Ted · 05-19"Might be a stupid question, but can anyone answer why opticals like LITE which are also supply-constrained deserve such …"。

CBRS 招股书披露严重关联交易与盈利能力问题 群友深挖招股书，发现多项不利条款，引发做空兴趣。

极度依赖单一客户: MBZUAI + G42 贡献 86% 营收，且 MBZUAI 占应收账款 77.9%[3]Randy Marsh · 05-18"Where do I start. non-GAAP net loss of $75.7M, which actually widened from a $21.8M loss in 2024. Biz literally losing m…"。
虚增营收嫌疑: OAI 报销费用全额计入营收和 COGS = 营收虚高 + 零毛利[3]Randy Marsh · 05-18"Where do I start. non-GAAP net loss of $75.7M, which actually widened from a $21.8M loss in 2024. Biz literally losing m…"。
巨额期权与解禁压力: OAI 获 3340 万股极低行权价认股权证 + 2026 年 Q2 面临 3.7 亿美元一次性 SBC 费用 + 80% 股票面临解禁悬崖[3]Randy Marsh · 05-18"Where do I start. non-GAAP net loss of $75.7M, which actually widened from a $21.8M loss in 2024. Biz literally losing m…"。

Situational Awareness 基金 13F 披露大量看跌期权，被视作反向指标 群内认为其缺乏熊市经验，且 13F 期权数据存在失真。

SA 沦为新 ARKK: Leopold 做空/买入 LITE、MU、SNDK 等 puts → 被嘲讽为 'bull market baby'，买入标的反而大涨[4]TMTFOCUSED · 05-18"Situational Awareness is the new ARK"[5]RNB · 05-18"he sold hut in q1 stock has doubled since! he is in his 20s, he is a bull market baby."。
13F 期权数据失真: 所有 puts 在 13F 中均显示为 100 股（无视 delta/premium） = 无法判断真实敞口与成本[6]tortoise · 05-18"all puts show up as 100 shares on a 13F regardless of delta/premium etc. he could've had .01c puts in all these names, w…"。

META 持续高额 AI 投入引发担忧，Neocloud 或成退路 大摩研报提出 META 可能转型 Neocloud，群内对此反应不一。

Neocloud = 认输: 大摩视 Neocloud 为资本开支兜底方案，但群友认为转型 Neocloud = 承认在 Frontier 模型竞争中失败[7]ALC · 05-18"Agree with <@U0AQA7DU9TL> here and MS should know better. Going the neocloud route is pretty much an admission of failur…"。
Zuck 视其为生死战: Zuck 将 Frontier 模型视为生死存亡之战 → 不会因短期股价妥协，甚至可能继续加码[8]RM · 05-18"Zuck is spending $13B/yr on metaverse when all the signs point to the fact that VR will never scale. He is all-in on AI …"。

Google 与 Blackstone 成立新 AI 云公司，剑指 Neocloud 市场 此举被视为对现有 Neocloud 玩家的重大利空。

长线利空独立 Neocloud: Google 亲自下场构建 Neocloud 生态 + 资金优势 → 对现有独立 Neocloud 提供商构成长期竞争威胁[9]Josh S · 05-19"feel like u gotta view this as -ve for neos. bernstein analyst gonna have a field day with the LT competition risk"。

科技动量组合遭遇显著回撤，市场风格面临切换考验 GS 数据显示 TMT 动量组合从高点回撤约 17%。

17% 回撤仍属正常范围: 17% 回撤在非事件驱动的正常回调范围内（通常 15-20%），但连续两日 5%+ 下跌 = 2022 年以来最差[10]Steinrich · 05-19"the *GS TMT Mo’ pair has now pulled back ~17% from its 52wk high / peak*, a drawdown that measures favorably against mos…"。
AI 交易拥挤度: 动量因子平仓波及 AI 交易 = 市场对高估值科技股获利了结[11]H-Cap · 05-18"Following Friday's selloff, *Momentum () is* *having its worst two-day selloff since 2022*, posting back-to-back 5%+ unw…"。

原油市场面临极高尾部风险，中美伊三方博弈决定最终走向 群内对特朗普是否会采取极端军事行动存在严重分歧，但共识是原油价格将继续承压上行。

特朗普的政治困境: 特朗普在对伊制裁陷入僵局 → 无法承受全面战争代价 + 难以妥协[12]Bessents Burner · 05-18"The real issue is Trumps ego and brand cannot allow for a deal, if Biden was in charge the war would have never happened…"。
军事干预的局限性: 地面入侵不可能 + 空中打击难控霍尔木兹海峡 = 军事干预局限大[13]Arun Dhar · 05-18"I don't think you <@U0AQA59JB7U>, I or anyone here who doesn't have deep connections in military strategy can say "there…"。
中国的调停作用: 中国作为最大原油进口国 = 强动机防止油价失控 → 或成促使伊朗谈判的关键[14]Arun Dhar · 05-18"The only credible "influence" on Iran now is China. China will truncate the extreme right-tail of Oil, because they don'…"。
原油市场的物理现实: 每天数百万桶缺口是物理现实 → 夏季需求高峰将至 = 原油及下游产品价格面临巨大上行压力[15]Arun Dhar · 05-18"I don't think you need to believe anyone. You can believe in thermodynamics. That doesn't warrant a position necessarily…"。

对 PM 来说 = 关注原油及相关大宗商品的尾部风险 在明确的缓和信号出现前，原油多头头寸仍具吸引力，同时需警惕高油价对全球宏观经济的负面溢出效应。