谈判陷入僵局: Trump指责媒体报道不实，Axios报道称新提案不足以达成协议，谈判未取得实质进展[1]Akh · 05-18"Trump: The Failing New York Times, The China Street Journal (WSJ!), Corrupt and now Irrelevant CNN, and all other member…"[2]TradingMango · 05-18"New Iran proposal is insufficient for a deal. "Shocked", said nobody except the algos trading ETFs."。
油价上行风险: 缺乏实质进展 → 油价将继续攀升，甚至可能触及$150/桶高位[3]Bessents Burner · 05-18"Either way 150 sustained is guaranteed (as much as something can be guaranteed)"；中国作为主要买家可能限制极端上涨，但整体趋势向上[4]Arun Dhar · 05-18"The only credible "influence" on Iran now is China. China will truncate the extreme right-tail of Oil, because they don'…"。
军事干预可能性低: 美国不太可能采取大规模地面行动（成本过高+难控霍尔木兹海峡）[5]Arun Dhar · 05-18"I don't think you <@U0AQA59JB7U>, I or anyone here who doesn't have deep connections in military strategy can say "there…"；更可能维持宽松封锁，让时间施压[6]James · 05-18"I think the reasonable glidepath will be to continue this loose blockade, allow some shadow ships to pass to avoid confr…"。
NVIDIA指引预期高: 市场对NVIDIA业绩指引预期在$90B-$92B之间[7]Jukan · 05-18"What are people expecting for NVIDIA’s guidance? Bloomberg: $86.2B GFHK buyside survey : $90B The highest number I’ve he…"；Jensen Huang称供应链成倍增长，但未来十年仍难满足建设需求[8]Chris · 05-18"Jensen,: "supply chain is more than doubling every year. I mean its probably Quadrupling every year, yet we will have a …"。
估值回调担忧: 即使业绩超预期，热门股也面临回调风险（市场易视为周期顶点）[9]Tae Kim · 05-18"hate to be the PTSD guy (hopefully this is a sign things will change), but beating actual numbers/guide (even blowout b/…"；近期半导体板块抛售系资金获利了结[10]H-Cap · 05-18"these are the best sell-offs. like nov when all the pod shops were booking profits and drove SNDK down 30%"。
客户极度集中: MBZUAI (62%) + G42 (24%) = 86%营收来自两家UAE关联实体，且MBZUAI占应收账款77.9%[11]Randy Marsh · 05-18"Where do I start. non-GAAP net loss of $75.7M, which actually widened from a $21.8M loss in 2024. Biz literally losing m…"。
异常权证与收入确认: OAI获33.4M股行权价$0.00001的权证，AWS获2.7M股$100行权价权证；RPO确认极度后置（15%在前24个月，43%在25-48个月）[11]Randy Marsh · 05-18"Where do I start. non-GAAP net loss of $75.7M, which actually widened from a $21.8M loss in 2024. Biz literally losing m…"。
盈利质量堪忧: 非GAAP运营亏损扩大至$75.7M；OAI报销的数据中心改造费用被全额计入营收和COGS = 零毛利虚增营收；面临80%锁定期悬崖[11]Randy Marsh · 05-18"Where do I start. non-GAAP net loss of $75.7M, which actually widened from a $21.8M loss in 2024. Biz literally losing m…"。
NAND替代HDD受阻: SanDisk高管指出，NAND与HDD的每GB成本差距已扩大至20-25倍（远超云服务商切换所需的2-3倍阈值） → 替代HDD缺乏经济性[12]Maverick · 05-19"AI-driven memory demand has sent NAND prices soaring more than 20-fold, but flash memory and hard drive makers alike rem…"。
光模块毛利受质疑: 光模块面临产能过剩和商品化风险；大量收发器供应来自中国 →超大厂是否继续容忍高毛利存疑[13]Ted · 05-19"Might be a stupid question, but can anyone answer why opticals like LITE which are also supply-constrained deserve such …"。
Neocloud期权引争议: MS提出META可能转向Neocloud → 被视为对前沿AI战略失败的承认[14]ALC · 05-18"Agree with <@U0AQA7DU9TL> here and MS should know better. Going the neocloud route is pretty much an admission of failur…"；反方认为Zuck将前沿模型视为生存关键，不会轻易放弃[15]RM · 05-18"<@U0AQA59JB7U> he may care about stock if it has impact on retention but he will not make decisions to optimize for it i…"。
资本开支压力: META面临巨大资本开支要求（今年$52-55B，明年预期$55-60B） + 宏观/TAM阻力 → 盈利承压[16]RI · 05-18"the growth requirements are sky high, we need +52-55 bn this year and then people prob modeling $55-60 bn next year. Tha…"。
利空Neocloud: GOOG自建Neocloud宇宙 → 长期竞争风险增加，对现有Neocloud厂商构成利空[17]RI · 05-19"GOOG is creating their own Neocloud universe"[18]Josh S · 05-19"feel like u gotta view this as -ve for neos. bernstein analyst gonna have a field day with the LT competition risk"。
潜在受益者: 可能对Broadcom（网络/ASIC）构成利好[19]monopolycap · 05-19"positive for broadcom perhaps?"；下一步可能涉及Trainium[20]Akh · 05-19"Trainium next"。
$NOW盘前突破 / $ZS获上调: $NOW盘前突破$100（涨幅5%）[21]Akh · 05-18"$NOW breaking $100 in the pre, up 5%"，期权交易量激增[22]H-Cap · 05-19"ServiceNow Options Surge, Led by $110 Calls By Bloomberg Automation (Bloomberg) -- Trading in options of ServiceNow Inc.…"；$ZS获B Riley上调至Buy及$225目标价[23]Akh · 05-18"$ZS in addition to Keybanc: Upgraded to Buy at B Riley, $225 target Lowered to $210 at Mizuho"。
高估值+宏观压制: 整体软件板块仍面临高估值和宏观环境压力，长期增长逻辑存疑[24]852funda · 05-18"Some software seems to have turned the corner in terms of terminal = zero thesis. Fortinet, ddog , snow and now . Guess …"。
动量因子大幅回撤: GS TMT动量因子从52周高点回撤约17%（自2022年以来最严重的连续两日抛售） → 对AI交易造成附带损害[25]Steinrich · 05-19"the *GS TMT Mo’ pair has now pulled back ~17% from its 52wk high / peak*, a drawdown that measures favorably against mos…"[26]H-Cap · 05-18"Following Friday's selloff, *Momentum () is* *having its worst two-day selloff since 2022*, posting back-to-back 5%+ unw…"。
市场风格切换风险: 动量因子失效 → 资金可能从前期热门科技股流出[27]kkhajavi7 · 05-18"at some point these moves become more the norm not the exception - we are clearly in unchartered territory in terms of m…"。
🟥▲发布新演示，首次清晰展示捕获搜索广告策略，利用Muse Spark · 搜索广告/产品演示 New presentation out of Meta this weekend... might be the first time they have cleanly laid out their push into capturing search ad dollars... leveraging Muse Spark
🟦▼Anthropic订单从full racks转为标准ASIC，UBS下调C2026/2027E Anthropic贡献收入至$8B/$22B（原$21B/$23 · 订单调整/收入预期 UBS: AVGO's Anthropic order from full racks to standard ASIC (now ~25% of originally expected revenue but much higher margins)... reduction in Anthropic contribution from ~$21B/$23B in C2026/C2027E to
🟥▼估值处于多年来最高，面临PANW/CRWD 6月财报的下行不对称风险 · 估值/财报风险 Anyone think cyber’s gone too far? FTNT, PANW, CRWD all trading at the richest multiples in years. Asymmetry to the downside into PANW/CRWD earnings in June?