Ken Griffin 态度反转: Agentic AI 将原本需要金融硕博数周的工作缩短至数小时或数天[1]Akh · 05-16"… people with masters and PhDs in finance over the course of weeks or months being done by AI agents over the course of hours or days. These are not these are not mid-tier white collar jobs. Th…"，引发高阶白领自动化担忧。
空方逻辑：物理硬约束当前可能处于蜜月期，长期大规模应用将面临电力、土地、水资源及物理法则等多重硬约束[2]Randy Marsh · 05-16"In many ways. Money/economics is only one part of the issue. Power is another phase then there’s land & water. Then …"。
FDE 角色定位: AI 部署工程师类似 90/00 年代的现场 IT 顾问，旨在加速企业应用落地，不应以此否定技术本身的价值[3]overunderfit · 05-16"…e in (Claude today, Microsoft/Cisco/Oracle in the past) and improving time to market for companies wishing to use these tech. Don't see how this invalidate the tech itself. Must be sar…"。
MTK 估值与预期: 市场已计入大量 ASIC 预期，GS 给出 NT$5,000 目标价隐含 2028 年极高增速；保守看 2028 营收约 US$24B，目标价 NT$4,000[4]Terminal Junkie · 05-16"…0% QoQ through 2028, implying FY2028 ASIC revenue of around US$24B. My EPS target is closer to NT$131/221.6 for 2027/28, and a…"。
封装路线演进: NVDA Rubin Ultra 4 芯片版本或采用 Intel EMIB-T= CoWoS 短期仍受制于 scaling/warpage 限制[4]Terminal Junkie · 05-16"… For me this is pretty much expected, but if true, it means CoWoS still has scaling/warpage constraints in the short term, while EMIB-T could become the better near-term solution. T…"。
基板与设备标的: EMIB-T 提升基板复杂性，看好 Unimicron[5]Terminal Junkie · 05-17"<@U0AR4MMGK5E> i've been a big supporter of unimicron"；PCB 钻孔工具推荐日本 Union Tool（一季度业绩爆棚）[6]Cliff Ocean · 05-17"<@U0AQQ553F7T> You should look Union Tool in JPN re: point 6. Global leader in ULF coated drill bits for ult…"；中介层供应商关注 Victory Giant 与 WUS[7]Terminal Junkie · 05-18"<@U0AVDJYQ0AE> Very Strong company, i think they are one of the only two comps qualified for the nvda’s midplane, anothe…"。
光通信瓶颈: MOCVD 产能紧缺比 InP 更持久，关注 AIXTRON 及即将合并的 VECO[4]Terminal Junkie · 05-16"…e faster, and laser shortage should ease into mid-2027, but MOCVD capacity could remain the main bottleneck for longer, AIXTRON. 6. *PCB/substrate equipment is becoming more inte…"。
价值错配: AI 预计创造 $5-20trn 现值，但 SPX 自 ChatGPT 以来已反弹 $30trn[8]H-Cap · 05-17"… value creation in present value terms. But SPX has rallied $30trn since ChatGPT was introduced."。
亚洲资金流: 本周 EM Asia (ex-China) 遭外资净卖出 $17bn；韩国流出 $13bn，但被 $14bn 散户买盘完全抵消[9]H-Cap · 05-17"… with FIIs net selling - $13bn, although this was more than offset by Retail buying of +$14bn."。
Appaloosa 建仓: Tepper Q1 新买入 SNDK，但可能已获利了结（涨幅约 60%）[10]H-Cap · 05-16"…paloosa’s one new buy during the first quarter was Sandisk (SNDK)"[11]Randy Marsh · 05-16"He probably sold out of it as well. Up what 60% now?"。
信号有效性: 追踪 Tepper/Druckenmiller 等灵活基金的 13F 无意义，其仓位反转极快；仅长久期基金（如 Hohn）具参考价值[12]James · 05-17"…s the fund mandate. If you're looking at Hohn or some other long duration hold group, there's signal."。