Terafab

29 atoms · 跨 18 天 · 首见 2026-04-23 · 最近 2026-06-30

三色: 🟦 fact 18 · 🟥 take 11 · stance ▲6/▼2/◆9

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来源: 群 1 · X 28

时态: fresh:27 · aging:2

标签: 好信源:11 · 好数字:11 · 好观点:10 · 好思考:2

🟨 AI 综合 · junior analyst 概览

🧭 拥挤度 (一人一票): ▲ 6 位作者 (KOL6) vs ▼ 1 位作者 (KOL1)

⚖️ 多头 6/6 来自KOL

🟦 客观事实 (facts) (18)

• <a id="atom-aa86c174a3013ba7"></a>🟦 2026-06-03 X·@elonmusk ⭐ · 对 Grimes County 税收贡献 · 营收预测
  SpaceX will still be paying an annual amount that increases tax revenue for Grimes County by ~25%
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=~25% · date=未指定
• <a id="atom-5572cc3036400d17"></a>🟦 2026-06-03 X·@SawyerMerritt · 财产税全额豁免 · 资本开支
  The tax abatement would give SpaceX a full exemption on property taxes tied to the project.
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=100% · date=未指定
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-ade0058e5e46a669"></a>🟦 2026-06-03 X·@SawyerMerritt · 项目估值 · 资本开支
  tax breaks for the $55 billion project east of College Station
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=$55 billion
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-e4b8f29776575008"></a>🟦 2026-05-27 X·@jukan05 · PDK 0.9 release timeline · 技术路线
  PDK 0.9发布时间: 2026年10月
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: date=2026-10
  [图: 关于Terafab项目时间进度压力与人员编制对比的行业分析报告截图 — PDK 0.9发布时间: 2026年10月; 小规模量产时间: 2028年; 试产目标年份: 2028年]
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-e669e6e9e7d7922f"></a>🟦 2026-05-27 X·@jukan05 · small scale production timeline · 供给产能
  小规模量产时间: 2028年
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: date=2028
  [图: 关于Terafab项目时间进度压力与人员编制对比的行业分析报告截图 — PDK 0.9发布时间: 2026年10月; 小规模量产时间: 2028年; 试产目标年份: 2028年]
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-bc11e2d7332a8982"></a>🟦 2026-05-27 X·@jukan05 · trial production timeline · 供给产能
  试产目标年份: 2028年
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: date=2028
  [图: 关于Terafab项目时间进度压力与人员编制对比的行业分析报告截图 — PDK 0.9发布时间: 2026年10月; 小规模量产时间: 2028年; 试产目标年份: 2028年]
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-3c28c27692973a05"></a>🟦 2026-06-27 群 · 专注制造存储芯片 · 技术路线/产能
  In this week’s All In podcast, it’s mentioned that Terafab has a focus on manufacturing memory chips.
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-c1d18ad2554998db"></a>🟦 2026-06-03 X·@elonmusk · 员工及承包商税收远超 Grimes County 当前总收入 · 营收预测
  Taking into account taxes paid by SpaceX employees and contractors, Terafab will far exceed ALL revenue that Grimes County currently earns!
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-8bd879bbec905449"></a>🟦 2026-05-27 X·@jukan05 · equipment supplier pricing · 资本开支
  Terafab is offering equipment suppliers prices materially above market rates to secure critical tools
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  [图: 关于Terafab项目时间进度压力与人员编制对比的行业分析报告截图 — PDK 0.9发布时间: 2026年10月; 小规模量产时间: 2028年; 试产目标年份: 2028年]
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-e802b4150906bd7e"></a>🟦 2026-05-27 X·@jukan05 · procurement type · 资本开支
  no logic equipment
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-f472adf986d3144a"></a>🟦 2026-05-06 X·@KobeissiLetter · 建设项目地点 · 供给产能
  Elon Musk's new semiconductor production facility in Texas
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-41af403bc0e97329"></a>🟦 2026-06-30 X·@lithos_graphein · planned fab investment · 资本开支
  $0.12T Terafab
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=$0.12T
• <a id="atom-7b30f957105ea3e6"></a>🟦 2026-06-12 X·@trendforce · 建设成本 · 资本开支
  Elon Musk outlined Terafab, a reported US$55B Texas chip fab
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=$55B
• <a id="atom-f5e24c2706a5df0e"></a>🟦 2026-06-11 X·@lokoyacap · 现金储备 · 现金储备/资本开支
  As of today’s close, they have $75B to start doing their thing.
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=$75B · date=2026-06-11
• <a id="atom-1e4ec37e82223f3b"></a>🟦 2026-06-08 X·@barmix_tony · 总账单 · 资本开支
  $119 billion Terafab bill
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=$119B
• <a id="atom-693b01173000778e"></a>🟦 2026-05-15 X·@DallasAptGP · 计划投资额 · 资本开支
  Grimes County, where Musk is building a $55 billion semiconductor fab called Terafab
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=$55 billion
• <a id="atom-d10e309749e4f34d"></a>🟦 2026-06-18 X·@semidoped · would strain tool output, materials, and skilled labor · 供给产能/供应链
  a fab targeting wafer volumes an order of magnitude above today's largest facilities would strain tool output, materials, and skilled labor
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-8082462deef584bf"></a>🟦 2026-06-11 X·@lokoyacap · 订购工具 · 资本开支/供给产能
  They’re already ordering tools
  tags: 好信源 · → daily

🟥 多头 takes (bullish) (6)

• <a id="atom-b7d71106aff89169"></a>🟥 2026-05-30 X·@PatrickMoorhead · 与 WFE 公司进行严肃对话 · 合作客户/订单需求
  Hearing about the serious conversations Terafab are having with WFE companies. Pricing, lead times, etc. This is finally getting interesting.
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-466a3b2139da5835"></a>🟥 2026-06-07 X·@TradexWhisperer · 必要性判断 · 技术路线/供给产能
  we need to do the Terafab. Yeah, it seems like essential, otherwise there will not be enough chips
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-58f803f7cf3a5802"></a>🟥 2026-06-25 X·@bubbleboi · 预期市场行为 · 供给产能
  hope Terafab & CXMT absolutely flood it
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-c3b18bdbda71988f"></a>🟥 2026-06-18 X·@semidoped · come online would cause supply chain shortages and boost semicap names · 供应链/订单需求
  If Terafab comes online, we ain't seen nothin' yet regarding supply chain shortages. Big boost for Semicap names would ensue though!
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-967162897dcb0ad9"></a>🟥 2026-06-04 X·@cb_doge · necessity justification · 供给产能
  there's just clearly a need for AI logic memory and packaging, AI computers, essentially, that is far beyond what even the best case assumptions of the existing fabricators can do, and that's why we need to do the Terafab
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-ccf93768529e4971"></a>🟥 2026-04-30 X·@lokoyacap [老化中] · 扩大产能的必要性 · 供给产能
  Anyone not Terafab-pilled will be very soon.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: date=未来18-24个月

🟥 空头 takes (bearish) (1)

• <a id="atom-fc641c2d0abc0471"></a>🟥 2026-06-03 X·@elonmusk ⭐ · 设备高昂导致竞争劣势 · 竞争格局/资本开支
  Property tax on these crazy money machines would put us at a serious competitive disadvantage relative to other chip fabs in the world.
  tags: 好思考·好信源 · → daily

🟥 中性 takes (neutral) (3)

• <a id="atom-6abcef77ce94fb39"></a>🟥 2026-06-21 X·@SouthernValue95 · 外部存储器项目 · 资本开支/融资
  I suspect @elonmusk could raise $ from big tech to turn Terafab into an external memory project
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-668a7787d20effef"></a>🟥 2026-06-21 X·@SouthernValue95 · 降低自有资金风险 · 资本开支
  Doing so would cause the project to risk less of $SPCX own capital
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-e183b97668847b97"></a>🟥 2026-05-20 X·@patrick_oshag · 合作伙伴 · 合作客户
  They have a partnership with Intel, which is very important. They're getting access to 50 years of institutional knowledge.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=Intel

⏱ 时间轴 (近 20)

• 🟦 2026-06-30 · fact · planned fab investment · → daily
• 🟦 2026-06-27 · fact · 专注制造存储芯片 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-06-25 · narrative · 预期市场行为 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-06-21 · narrative · 外部存储器项目 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-06-21 · narrative · 降低自有资金风险 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-06-18 · forecast · would strain tool output, materials, and skilled labor · → daily
• 🟥 2026-06-18 · forecast · come online would cause supply chain shortages and boost sem · → daily
• 🟦 2026-06-12 · narrative · 建设成本 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-06-11 · fact · 现金储备 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-06-11 · fact · 订购工具 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-06-08 · fact · 总账单 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-06-07 · narrative · 必要性判断 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-06-04 · forecast · necessity justification · → daily
• 🟦 2026-06-03 · fact · 财产税全额豁免 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-06-03 · fact · 项目估值 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-06-03 · forecast · 对 Grimes County 税收贡献 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-06-03 · forecast · 员工及承包商税收远超 Grimes County 当前总收入 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-06-03 · narrative · 设备高昂导致竞争劣势 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-05-30 · narrative · 与 WFE 公司进行严肃对话 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-05-27 · fact · equipment supplier pricing · → daily

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