存储全面重估 ⟪LINK34⟫
Kioxia 业绩印证 ASP 暴涨，LTA 模式正重塑行业估值逻辑 SNDK 盘中上演深 V 反转
- Kioxia 业绩碾压: 营收 [1]fehmi.karagulla · 05-15"1.75万亿日元"，环比 +74.5%，超出华尔街预期 31.3%。隐含的 F1Q ASP 比买方预期高出约 70% [1]fehmi.karagulla · 05-15"ASP for Kioxia getting close to SNDK , Kioxia usually 30% lower *Revenue ¥1,750.0B, +74.5% q/q* vs Street ¥1,333.0B → *A…"。
- 估值逻辑切换: AI capex 带来的内存瓶颈促使行业转向长期协议 (LTAs)，提升了盈利可见性。市场正将存储股从传统的 PB 估值转向 PE 估值 [2]H-Cap · 05-15"_the chokepoint of memory in the continuing AI capex ramp up means that the DRAM industry is_ _moving to negotiate long-…"。
- 资金疯狂涌入: 隔夜 DRAM 再次流入 [3]H-Cap · 05-15"6亿美元"，单周吸金超 50 亿美元，体量直逼 SPY [3]H-Cap · 05-15"• In the US, the theme is little changed – steady appetite for Semiconductors (SOXX, SMH, VLUE) as the memory madness co…"。
QCOM 多空激辩 ⟪LINK35⟫
基本面利空明确 vs 亚洲传闻满天飞 分析师日临近，多空分歧加剧
- 空方逻辑：苹果业务流失 核心人才流失 + Bernstein 震惊于华尔街尚未在模型中充分反映今年晚些时候苹果 Pro 机型基带转为自研带来的断崖式下跌 [4]Tae Kim · 05-15"Bernstein was shocked, rest of Street not modeling Apple step down properly later this year when Pro models go internal …"。
- 多方逻辑：ASIC 传闻 亚洲供应链传闻 QCOM 正为总部在新加坡的“亚洲互联网巨头”(实为 Bytedance) 开发 ASIC，并涉足 Meta/Amazon 项目，甚至参与 OpenAI 智能手机 SoC 竞标 [5]Mei · 05-15"Asia rumor mill says it is doing ASIC for Bytedance, and doing CPU or ASIC for Meta/Amazon. And it is also involved with…"[6]Mei · 05-15""Asian Internet Giant" headquartered in Singapore, it is Bytedance (Bytedance Cloud/2B business I personally believe has…"。
- 产能腾挪优势: 多头认为 QCOM 的核心优势在于其 TSMC N3 节点产能分配，理论上可将手机芯片产能灵活切换至 CPU/ASIC [7]Mei · 05-15"I personally think the biggest advantage for QCOM is its TSMC allocation which it could switch from phones to CPU/ASIC"。
NVDA 封装破局 ⟪LINK36⟫
为绕开 CoWoS 瓶颈，NVDA 或转向 Intel 先进封装
- EMIB-T 替代方案: UBS 报告称 NVDA 正考虑使用 Intel 的 EMIB-T 封装技术来生产 4-die Rubin Ultra [8]Jukan · 05-15"Btw, UBS believes NVIDIA is looking to use Intel’s EMIB-T for the 4-die Rubin Ultra. I thought the 4-die Rubin Ultra was…"。
- 逻辑支撑: 4-die 架构对 CoWoS 的面积要求过于苛刻，而 EMIB 架构在理论上完美契合这种超大尺寸封装需求，预计最快 2028 年 Q1 推出 [9]Arun Dhar · 05-15"You'll know if this is feasible but it makes so much sense in theory Coz 4-die Rubin Ultra is just absurd packaging scal…"。
AVGO 绑定 GOOG ⟪LINK37⟫
Broadcom 拿下 Google 五年长单，包含巨额保底
- 长单落地: AVGO 与 GOOG 签署了为期 5 年的合作协议，且附带非常庞大的最低采购金额限制，直接通过 8K 文件披露 [10]MyNameIsJeff · 05-15"It has very large minimums actually"。