以下部分引用 AI 总结，现阶段 AI 仍然有幻觉。请以内容的原文为准。

数据新鲜度群聊 07-14 ✓卖方 07-14 ✓Wrap 断档15天 ✕News 07-15 ✓X 断档12天 ✕页面生成 07-15

FOMC

133 atoms · 跨 20 天 · 首见 2026-04-28 · 最近 2026-07-02

三色: 🟦 fact 116 · 🟥 take 17 · stance ▲6/▼44/◆56

叙事状态: ⚔️ contested (分歧) · 📈 加速 · 策展近14d 1 atom

状态只算低频策展源 (群/卖方); X firehose 仅作背景音量

来源: 群 2 · X 131

时态: fresh:128 · aging:3 · stale:2

标签: 好信源:93 · 好数字:39 · 好观点:20 · 好思考:7 · 好问题:2

🟨 AI 综合 · junior analyst 概览

展开 AI 综合 (灰色 · 非市场结论 · 点击数字溯源到原 atom)

model: deepseek-chat · 2026-07-12 · 默认折叠

FOMC在最近一次会议上全票12-0维持利率不变，连续第四次按兵不动 ¹ ¹。然而，18位官员中有9人预计2026年至少加息一次 ¹ ¹。市场交易员已完全定价年底前加息25个基点 ¹。鹰派方面，Yardeni预计6月会议将释放鹰派信号，并在7月加息25bps ¹。而Michele认为今年利率不会变动 ¹。鸽派观点则认为降息概率仍在50%以上 ¹。但Hammack警告，FOMC关于下一步是降息的信号具有误导性 ¹。这种分歧也体现在投票上：之前的会议曾出现8-4维持利率的决定，显示内部分裂 ¹。

🧭 拥挤度 (一人一票): ▲ 1 位作者 (KOL1) + 群 1 条 vs ▼ 2 位作者 (KOL2) + 群 1 条

📄 广泛报道的事实 · 8 个

展开 (多人转述同一事实/数字 — 确认度高, **非独立观点**, 不标多空)

2026年加息预期 — 5 源报道 (含4快讯) · X
基准利率维持决定 — 2 源报道 (含1快讯) · X
加息预期 — 2 源报道 (含1快讯) · X
信号误导性 — 2 源报道 (含2快讯) · X
多数委员倾向从声明中删除宽松偏倚 — 2 源报道 (含2快讯) · X
担忧 — 2 源报道 (含2快讯) · X
assessment that persistently high inflation and Middle East uncertainty could re — 2 源报道 (含2快讯) · X
利率决议 — 2 源报道 (含2快讯) · X

💢 核心分歧 (1 轴)

1. 地缘不确定性短期扰动 vs 长期溢价

*topic: 宏观利率/利率决策/投票分歧/地缘政治 · 5 bull vs 33 bear*

🟢 bullish 侧:

<a id="atom-750fc8e26e8cd0f2"></a>2026-04-29 X·@zerohedge · Governor Miran dissent · 宏观利率
FED SAYS GOVERNOR STEPHEN MIRAN DISSENTS IN FAVOR OF RATE CUT
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty=rate cut · date=2026-04-29
<a id="atom-d1e54a1672f3095e"></a>2026-05-17 X·@AlexZio00 · 鸽派概率 · 宏观利率
A(25%) 이란 수용 + NVIDIA 비트 + FOMC 비둘기 → AGGRESSIVE
tags: 好思考 · → daily
value: qty=25% · date=2026-05-17
<a id="atom-62016e1ecb2aef68"></a>2026-05-20 X·@FirstSquawk · 参与者观点 · 宏观利率/地缘政治 +同日1条
SEVERAL PARTICIPANTS SUGGESTED THAT RATE CUTS COULD BE WARRANTED LATER THIS YEAR IF THE CONFLICT WERE RESOLVED QUICKLY AND INFLATION PRESSURES EASED
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: date=2026-05-20
<a id="atom-013527c5c831a297"></a>2026-06-04 X·@financialjuice [老旧] · 货币政策立场 · 宏观利率/管理层表态
Fed's Daly: Policy in a good place.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: direction=good

🔴 bearish 侧:

<a id="atom-5ec46f7c467f36f1"></a>2026-04-29 X·@zerohedge · Hammack, Kashkari, Logan voted against easing bias · 宏观利率 +同日2条
FED: HAMMACK, KASHKARI, LOGAN VOTED AGAINST EASING BIAS, BACKED
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty= · date=2026-04-29
<a id="atom-7cb8b77f29fa7c8f"></a>2026-04-29 X·@FirstSquawk ⭐ · rate hike likelihood vs cut · 宏观利率/仓位情绪 +同日1条
THE NUMBER OF OFFICIALS WHO VIEW A RATE HIKE AS EQUALLY LIKELY AS A CUT HAS RISEN
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: direction=increased
<a id="atom-5e5d723f763d4fbd"></a>2026-04-29 X·@hungjng69679118 · 通胀描述 · 宏观利率
将通胀形容为“高企”，而在之前的声明中则为“略高”
tags: 好思考 · → daily
value: direction=升级
<a id="atom-7d22acd3a86a5815"></a>2026-05-01 X·@zerohedge · 通胀预期脱锚时政策响应 · 出口管制/宏观利率
UNANCHORED INFL.EXPECTATIONS WOULD REQUIRE RATE HIKES
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: direction=require rate hikes
<a id="atom-1f1238d396877b0b"></a>2026-05-01 X·@FirstSquawk [老化中] · Lorie Logan 政策表态 · 宏观利率/货币政策 +同日1条
FED'S LOGAN SAYS THE FED SHOULD AVOID SUGGESTING ANY EASING OF POLICY AT THIS TIME.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: date=2026-05-01

展开 46 条中性

<a id="atom-92f6dee5edc39296"></a>2026-04-28 X·@FirstSquawk · 会议开始时间 · 宏观利率
FED ANNOUNCES FOMC MEETING STARTED AT 10:00 AM ET AS PLANNED.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: date=2026-04-28T10:00:00 ET
<a id="atom-25a69e3e447994da"></a>2026-04-29 X·@zerohedge · 预期调整劳动市场措辞 · 宏观利率
We expect small changes to the statement to note the better labor market news and higher inflation numbers. The FOMC could drop “job gains have remained low” and leave only “the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months,” or it could note that job gains have picked up and have been roughly in line with slower labor force growth on average.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
<a id="atom-ec445fe0e4610d1e"></a>2026-04-29 X·@wallstengine · 利率决策 · 宏观利率
FED CHAIR POWELL HOLDS RATES UNCHANGED, AS EXPECTED
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: direction=unchanged
📷 原图
<a id="atom-011b6567411c67f0"></a>2026-04-29 X·@FirstSquawk · 基准利率 · 宏观利率
THE FEDERAL RESERVE HELD ITS BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT RATE STEADY IN THE 3.50–3.75% RANGE
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=3.50-3.75% · date=2026-04-29
<a id="atom-25c80fc6f973c11c"></a>2026-04-29 X·@DeItaone · 当前政策立场 · 宏观利率
POWELL: CURRENT POLICY STANCE APPROPRIATE
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: direction=appropriate

🔮 前瞻触发器 (forward triggers)

*这些 atom 指向可能 reprice 的前瞻事件 (无精确日期, 仅类型). 配合上面叙事状态看「上膛」程度.*

宏观 (1 · ▲0/▼1)

🔴 2026-05-19 · 加息预测
Yardeni: FOMC to signal tightening bias at June meeting, followed by a 25bps FFR hike at July meeting

🟦 客观事实 (facts) (30)

<a id="atom-131382f9fb05aa3d"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@zerohedge ⭐ · 2026年加息预期 · 宏观利率/监管政策
FED: NINE OF 18 FOMC PARTICIPANTS PENCIL IN 2026 RATE HIKE
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=9 of 18 participants · date=2026
<a id="atom-33054f2108e1280e"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@KobeissiLetter ⭐ · 利率维持不变 · 宏观利率
Fed leaves rates unchanged for the 4th straight meeting
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=4 · date=2026-06-17
<a id="atom-be0e616e5d62a716"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@KobeissiLetter ⭐ · 官员预期加息人数 · 宏观利率/仓位情绪
9 out of 18 officials expect at least one rate hike this year
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=9 out of 18 · date=2026-06-17
<a id="atom-c268f18b0eedba8c"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@KobeissiLetter ⭐ · 投票结果 · 宏观利率
Today's Fed decision was reached in a unanimous 12-0 vote
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=12-0 · date=2026-06-17
<a id="atom-8b6f0b07ffa21869"></a>🟦 2026-04-29 X·@zerohedge ⭐ · 基准利率维持决定 · 宏观利率
FED VOTES 8-4 TO HOLD BENCHMARK RATE IN 3.5%-3.75% RANGE
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=3.5%-3.75% · date=2026-04-29
<a id="atom-aa330ebbabb0b6df"></a>🟦 2026-05-22 X·@TheStalwart · 加息预期 · 宏观利率
TRADERS FULLY PRICE QUARTER-POINT FED HIKE BY END OF 2026
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=25bp · date=2026年末
<a id="atom-57553b9ee5a80393"></a>🟦 2026-04-29 X·@zerohedge · Michele 预期今年利率不变 · 宏观利率
MICHELE: DON'T EXPECT ANY CHANGES IN RATES THIS YEAR
tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
value: date=2026-04-29
<a id="atom-50bdfe1c7619ec14"></a>🟦 2026-04-29 X·@zerohedge · Michele 表示美联储对价格水平愈发担忧 · 价格动态
MICHELE: FED TELLING US INCREASINGLY CONCERNED ON PRICE LEVEL
tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
value: date=2026-04-29
<a id="atom-2ce28a55ea684f0c"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@KobeissiLetter · 利率决策 · 宏观利率
BREAKING: The Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged in its first policy decision with Kevin Warsh as Fed Chairman.
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=不变 · date=2026-06-17
<a id="atom-a9f9799cd3f3349b"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@zerohedge · 基准利率决议 · 宏观利率
FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 3.5%-3.75% RANGE IN UNANIMOUS VOTE
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=3.5%-3.75% · date=2026-06-17
<a id="atom-89eeb49795c8bf47"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@TheStalwart · 基准利率区间 · 宏观利率
*FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 3.5%-3.75% RANGE IN UNANIMOUS VOTE
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=3.5%-3.75%
<a id="atom-0ee8210c97272311"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@TheStalwart · 2026年加息预期委员数 · 宏观利率
*FED: NINE OF 18 FOMC PARTICIPANTS PENCIL IN 2026 RATE HIKE
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=9 · date=2026
<a id="atom-c9a4eead20ce6956"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@zerohedge · 2026年利率点阵图 · 宏观利率
Nine of 18 FOMC Participants Pencil in 2026 Rate Hike
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=18位参与者中有9位 · date=2026
<a id="atom-6cbf4ddf681bb8cc"></a>🟦 2026-06-05 X·@zerohedge · 2026年年底前加息概率 · 宏观利率
TRADERS FULLY PRICE IN QUARTER-POINT FED RATE HIKE BY YEAR-END
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=100% · date=2026-12-31
<a id="atom-e67777eab3042033"></a>🟦 2026-04-29 X·@zerohedge · dissenters count · 监管政策
Last time there were a total of 4 dissenters was in 1992
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=4
<a id="atom-b82472d5236737bb"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@zerohedge · 政策声明移除额外利率调整指引 · 监管政策
FED REMOVES STATEMENT REFERENCE TO ADDITIONAL RATE ADJUSTMENTS
tags: 好信源 · → daily
<a id="atom-fb4d8950401ab916"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@KobeissiLetter · 通胀表述 · 价格动态/管理层表态
Fed says inflation 'remains elevated' relative to their goal
tags: 好信源 · → daily
<a id="atom-d6a0c4ec8c279a22"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@zerohedge · Warsh 首次 FOMC 会议市场反应 · 宏观利率/市场观点
Wall Street Reacts To Warsh's First FOMC
tags: 好信源 · → daily
<a id="atom-bff4b82a799f1611"></a>🟦 2026-05-20 X·@zerohedge · 观点 · 货币政策/宏观利率
FED: MANY PREFERRED REMOVING EASING BIAS FROM STATEMENT
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: direction=多数偏好去除宽松偏向
<a id="atom-cf85cf3287c6a93f"></a>🟦 2026-05-20 X·@zerohedge · 担忧 · 通胀预期/监管政策
FED: SOME WERE CONCERNED INFLATION EXPECTATIONS COULD DE-ANCHOR
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: direction=通胀预期可能脱锚
<a id="atom-7301b47f15060863"></a>🟦 2026-05-20 X·@zerohedge · Minutes mention private credit sector developments · 监管政策
FOMC Minutes: "Many participants commented on developments in the private credit sector"
tags: 好信源 · → daily
<a id="atom-e377d638cddc255b"></a>🟦 2026-05-20 X·@zerohedge · FOMC minutes show deeply divided Fed with clear hawkish bias · 宏观利率
FOMC Minutes Confirm Deeply-Divided Fed With Clear Hawkish Bias
tags: 好信源 · → daily
<a id="atom-a1159e6fd90909ef"></a>🟦 2026-05-20 X·@zerohedge · 通胀持续高于2%时政策收紧 · 利率/通胀
a majority of participants highlighted that some policy firming would likely become appropriate if inflation were to continue to run persistently above 2 percent
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: direction=tightening
<a id="atom-a5be838db1b13deb"></a>🟦 2026-05-01 X·@zerohedge · forward guidance 状态 · 监管政策
FORWARD GUIDANCE IN FOMC STATEMENT NOT APPROPRIATE
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: direction=not appropriate
<a id="atom-7d22acd3a86a5815"></a>🟦 2026-05-01 X·@zerohedge · 通胀预期脱锚时政策响应 · 出口管制/宏观利率
UNANCHORED INFL.EXPECTATIONS WOULD REQUIRE RATE HIKES
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: direction=require rate hikes
<a id="atom-750fc8e26e8cd0f2"></a>🟦 2026-04-29 X·@zerohedge · Governor Miran dissent · 宏观利率
FED SAYS GOVERNOR STEPHEN MIRAN DISSENTS IN FAVOR OF RATE CUT
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty=rate cut · date=2026-04-29
<a id="atom-5ec46f7c467f36f1"></a>🟦 2026-04-29 X·@zerohedge · Hammack, Kashkari, Logan voted against easing bias · 宏观利率
FED: HAMMACK, KASHKARI, LOGAN VOTED AGAINST EASING BIAS, BACKED
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty= · date=2026-04-29
<a id="atom-20201ac31a331282"></a>🟦 2026-04-29 X·@zerohedge · Middle East uncertainty · 地缘政治
FED: MIDDLE EAST DEVELOPMENTS ADDING HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty= · date=2026-04-29
<a id="atom-7b114c97248d7bb3"></a>🟦 2026-04-29 X·@zerohedge · Middle East developments adding high uncertainty · 地缘政治
MIDDLE EAST DEVELOPMENTS ADDING HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY
tags: 好信源 · → daily
<a id="atom-73928e950ac30ec3"></a>🟦 2026-04-29 X·@zerohedge · dual mandate risk attention · 宏观利率/监管政策
The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
tags: 好信源 · → daily

🟥 多头 takes (bullish) (2)

<a id="atom-7dff4efc5e0df772"></a>🟥 2026-07-02 群 · 降息概率 50%+ · 宏观/利率
市场共识：Williams/Warsh/Waller/Powell 均倾向于观察，降息概率仍在 50%+
tags: 好观点 · → daily
<a id="atom-d1e54a1672f3095e"></a>🟥 2026-05-17 X·@AlexZio00 · 鸽派概率 · 宏观利率
A(25%) 이란 수용 + NVIDIA 비트 + FOMC 비둘기 → AGGRESSIVE
tags: 好思考 · → daily
value: qty=25% · date=2026-05-17

🟥 空头 takes (bearish) (5)

<a id="atom-2d5dc983fcbf083a"></a>🟥 2026-05-07 X·@zerohedge [老化中] · 信号误导性 · 宏观利率/预期管理
*HAMMACK: FOMC SIGNAL ON NEXT MOVE BEING A CUT IS MISLEADING
tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
value: direction=misleading
<a id="atom-404c93ebb66f38f9"></a>🟥 2026-05-19 群 · 加息预测 · 加息/货币政策
Yardeni: FOMC to signal tightening bias at June meeting, followed by a 25bps FFR hike at July meeting
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=25 bps hike at July meeting
<a id="atom-7056d0678b68098f"></a>🟥 2026-06-19 X·@zerohedge · 文章建议被AI取代 · 监管政策/人事变动
FundStrat's Newton: Why Not Replace The FOMC With AI?
tags: 好观点 · → daily
<a id="atom-bf4fa3c3273ce97c"></a>🟥 2026-05-31 X·@zerohedge · credibility impact · 宏观利率/地缘政治
what happens to Fed credibility when cutting 2 months before a presidential election
tags: 好问题 · → daily
value: qty= · date=2026-06-01
<a id="atom-ce40a6ed40afbf24"></a>🟥 2026-05-17 X·@AlexZio00 · 鹰派概率 · 宏观利率
C(20%) 교착 + NVIDIA 컨센 + FOMC 매파 → DEFENSIVE
tags: 好思考 · → daily
value: qty=20% · date=2026-05-17

🟥 中性 takes (neutral) (6)

<a id="atom-25a69e3e447994da"></a>🟥 2026-04-29 X·@zerohedge · 预期调整劳动市场措辞 · 宏观利率
We expect small changes to the statement to note the better labor market news and higher inflation numbers. The FOMC could drop “job gains have remained low” and leave only “the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months,” or it could note that job gains have picked up and have been roughly in line with slower labor force growth on average.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
<a id="atom-b74bafcc943a5f5e"></a>🟥 2026-04-29 X·@zerohedge · 预期调整通胀措辞 · 宏观利率
The FOMC is also likely to say that “inflation remains elevated,” dropping “somewhat.”
tags: 好信源 · → daily
<a id="atom-bd5143aa6f747be1"></a>🟥 2026-04-29 X·@zerohedge · 预期会议室政策表态无变化 · 宏观利率
We expect little to no change in the statement language or Chair Powell's tone at the press conference
tags: 好信源 · → daily
<a id="atom-df341be377ab6936"></a>🟥 2026-06-17 X·@zerohedge · 加息可能性评估 · 宏观利率
whether the inflation situation is becoming concerning enough to warrant a rate hike
tags: 好思考 · → daily
<a id="atom-0769f02922c73509"></a>🟥 2026-06-17 X·@ChinaMacroFacts · 当前通胀担忧 · 宏观利率/监管政策
今天的fomc，我没有读出鹰派鸽派，读出来的是对当前通胀的担忧和前瞻指引的抛弃。
tags: 好观点 · → daily
<a id="atom-ee684204b12c14b0"></a>🟥 2026-06-10 X·@sippingitreal · 货币政策不会改变 · 监管政策
he's one voting member of the fomc. monetary policy will not change
tags: 好观点 · → daily

🟦 新闻流 (squawk · 40)

展开新闻流 (FirstSquawk / financialjuice / wallstengine / DeItaone — 快讯, 非原创 take)

<a id="atom-03cda9732590de6d"></a>🟦 2026-06-22 X·@FirstSquawk · 主席Warsh作证安排 · 监管政策
FED CHAIR WARSH TO TESTIFY BEFORE THE HOUSE FINANCIAL SERVICES COMMITTEE ON JULY 14 AT 10:00 A.M. ET.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: date=2026-07-14 · time=10:00 AM ET
<a id="atom-5c300801a7e9fcd6"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@FirstSquawk · 会议时间安排 · 宏观利率
FED SAYS FOMC MEETING RESUMED AS SCHEDULED AT 9 AM WEDNESDAY
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: date=2026-06-17T09:00
<a id="atom-feee69c2a58eafd9"></a>🟥 2026-06-17 X·@FirstSquawk · 政策预期 · 宏观利率/央行政策
SOCIETE GENERALE US RESEARCH HEAD RAJAPPA SAYS NO MAJOR FED CHANGES EXPECTED
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: date=2026-06-17
<a id="atom-e76f228c04661426"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@FirstSquawk ⭐ · 利率决议 · 宏观利率
U.S. (JUN) FED INTEREST RATE DECISION ACTUAL: 3.75% VS 3.75% PREVIOUS; EST 3.75%
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=3.75% · date=2026-06-17
<a id="atom-41db1d0f6dc94953"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@financialjuice · 利率决议 · 宏观利率
US INTEREST RATE DECISION ACTUAL 3.75% (FORECAST 3.75%, PREVIOUS 3.75%)
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=3.75%
<a id="atom-7be9dba41f4b0f7d"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@DeItaone ⭐ · 2026 GDP 预测中位数 · 宏观利率/业绩指引
FED LOWERS MEDIAN 2026 GDP PROJECTION TO 2.2% FROM 2.4%
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=2.2% · date=2026 · direction=down
<a id="atom-2a6042979e4b075b"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@financialjuice ⭐ · median rate forecast next 2 yrs · 宏观利率
FED MEDIAN RATE FORECAST (NEXT 2 YRS) ACTUAL 3.375% (FORECAST 3.125%, PREVIOUS 3.125%) $MACRO
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=3.375% · date=2026-06-17
<a id="atom-a14fc12b0fe884b9"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@financialjuice · 2026年GDP增长预测 · 宏观利率
Fed policymakers see 2.2% gdp growth in 2026 versus 2.4% in March
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=2.2% · date=2026
<a id="atom-1b0448d8d8548c88"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@financialjuice · 长期GDP增长预测 · 宏观利率
see longer-run growth at 2.0% vs 2.0% in March
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=2.0%
<a id="atom-b5808fc474cfdcd9"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@wallstengine · 项目参与者数（2026加息） · 宏观利率
FED: 9 OF 18 FOMC PARTICIPANTS PENCIL IN 2026 RATE HIKE
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty=9 · direction=加息 · date=2026
<a id="atom-515530cd3571b8a3"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@financialjuice · 2026年加息偏好 · 宏观利率
9 of 18 FOMC participants pencil in a 2026 rate hike
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=9 · date=2026
<a id="atom-ff0dcaefdec41340"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@FirstSquawk ⭐ · 2026 PCE通胀预期 · 价格动态/宏观利率
FED POLICYMAKERS NOW EXPECT STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT INFLATION, WITH 2026 PCE INFLATION SEEN AT 3.6% (VS. 2.7% PREVIOUSLY)
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=3.6% · date=2026
<a id="atom-81c42a3d79866e7f"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@FirstSquawk ⭐ · 通胀回归2%目标时间 · 价格动态/宏观利率
INFLATION IS NOT PROJECTED TO RETURN TO THE 2% TARGET UNTIL 2028
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: date=2028
<a id="atom-86da97a7e08c1786"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@financialjuice · 立场表态 · 宏观利率
Nobody on FOMC thinks inflation will be transitory.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: date=2026-06-17
<a id="atom-7cb280e2cd41eeb6"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@FirstSquawk · 不相信通胀是暂时性的 · 货币政策/通胀预期
NO FOMC MEMBER BELIEVES INFLATION IS TRANSITORY
tags: 好信源 · → daily
<a id="atom-d06238ea98abf5fe"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@FirstSquawk ⭐ · 一半委员预计加息 · 利率周期/货币政策
HALF THE COMMITTEE PROJECTED A RATE HIKE
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
<a id="atom-93dea4ba71b9a0e7"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@financialjuice · unanimous on delivering price stability · 管理层表态
The FOMC members are unanimous that they will deliver price stability.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: date=2026-06-17
<a id="atom-84e22500ea7ceb1e"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@DeItaone · Warsh 评论美联储缺乏前瞻指引 · 监管政策/管理层表态
WARSH: ALSO ABSENT IS FORWARD GUIDANCE, NOT WELL-SUITED TO CURRENT POLICY STATE
tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
<a id="atom-356c1473d6e29633"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@FirstSquawk · 通胀框架审查重点 · 监管政策
FED'S WARSH SAID THE REVIEW OF THE FED’S INFLATION FRAMEWORK WILL FOCUS ON UNDERSTANDING THE DRIVERS OF INFLATION, WHILE REAFFIRMING THAT THE FED’S 2% INFLATION TARGET REMAINS ITS LONG-STANDING OBJECTIVE.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
<a id="atom-cd295f273c6a8b80"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@DeItaone · 政策对房地产市场具有限制性 · 宏观利率/地缘政治
WARSH: FED POLICY APPEARS TO BE RESTRICTIVE VIS A VIS HOUSING MARKET
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: direction=- · scope=housing
<a id="atom-df772d1304456693"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@financialjuice · 利率决策共识 · 宏观利率
None of the 19 at the table felt we needed to tighten today.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: direction=维持不变
<a id="atom-af9fa3a6c8e6d969"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@FirstSquawk · 共识：无需收紧 · 监管政策/宏观利率
ALL 19 FOMC MEMBERS AGREED NO TIGHTENING WAS NEEDED TODAY
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty=0 · date=2026-06-17
<a id="atom-a4138862ce5a2e9d"></a>🟦 2026-06-16 X·@FirstSquawk · 会议开始时间 · 宏观利率/政策信号
FED SAYS FOMC MEETING BEGAN AT 10 AM ET AS SCHEDULED
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: date=2026-06-16T10:00 · direction=as scheduled
<a id="atom-b5397970daf58e6a"></a>🟦 2026-06-09 X·@DeItaone ⭐ · 利率决策预测 · 宏观利率
REUTERS POLL EXPECTS FED TO HOLD RATES AT 3.50%-3.75% JUNE MEETING
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=3.50%-3.75% · date=2026-06
<a id="atom-45c723792f929edb"></a>🟦 2026-06-09 X·@DeItaone ⭐ · 全年按兵不动概率预测 · 宏观利率
REUTERS POLL SHOWS 72/102 ECONOMISTS SEE FED HOLD THROUGH 2026
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=72/102 economists · date=2026
<a id="atom-013527c5c831a297"></a>🟦 2026-06-04 X·@financialjuice [老旧] · 货币政策立场 · 宏观利率/管理层表态
Fed's Daly: Policy in a good place.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: direction=good
<a id="atom-07631f0261d2e19e"></a>🟦 2026-06-04 X·@FirstSquawk [老旧] · 前瞻指引 · 管理层表态/宏观利率
DALY SAYS FORWARD GUIDANCE NOT GOOD AT THIS JUNCTURE
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: direction=not good
<a id="atom-6f09c0587f92942d"></a>🟦 2026-06-03 X·@FirstSquawk · 经济增速 · 宏观利率
FED'S WILLIAMS STATES THAT THE ECONOMY IS GROWING STRONGLY AT AROUND 2% AND THE JOB MARKET IS NOW STABLE.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty=约2% · date=当前
<a id="atom-9dfca05d8991294a"></a>🟦 2026-06-03 X·@FirstSquawk · 货币政策立场 · 宏观利率
WILLIAMS: I DON'T SEE AN OBVIOUS ARGUEMENT TO CHANGE INTEREST RATES RIGHT NOW
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: direction=不变
<a id="atom-cabb72ed9bdb2502"></a>🟦 2026-06-02 X·@financialjuice ⭐ · 下次会议将进行激烈辩论 · 监管政策/宏观利率
Fed's Hammack: Expect next FOMC will have robust debate.
tags: 好观点·好思考·好信源 · → daily
<a id="atom-3d255eb31dc125d5"></a>🟥 2026-05-22 X·@FirstSquawk · 调整声明措辞，移除宽松偏向 · 宏观利率/仓位情绪
INTEREST RATE FUTURES TRADERS INCREASE BETS ON FED RATE RISE FOLLOWING WALLER'S REMARKS ABOUT REMOVING 'EASING BIAS' FROM FOMC STATEMENT.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: date=2026-05-22
<a id="atom-1f919edeeb4b04ad"></a>🟦 2026-05-22 X·@DeItaone · Fed hike odds before 2027 · 宏观利率
Markets now price a 43% chance of a Fed hike before 2027 — the highest in months.
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=43% · date=2027
📷 原图
<a id="atom-0ea0965423693d76"></a>🟦 2026-05-22 X·@DeItaone · 加息概率 · 宏观利率
Markets now price a 43% chance of a Fed hike before 2027 — the highest in months.
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=43% · date=2027年前
<a id="atom-9c14e91dd6396f45"></a>🟦 2026-05-22 X·@financialjuice · chair selected · 人事变动
Fed: The Federal Open Market Committee unanimously selects Kevin Warsh as FOMC chair
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: person=Kevin Warsh
<a id="atom-058e598d434d1935"></a>🟦 2026-05-20 X·@DeItaone · 多数官员认为如果通胀持续可能需要加息 · 宏观利率/监管政策
MAJORITY OF OFFICIALS THOUGHT HIKES MAY BE NEEDED IF INFLATION PERSISTS
tags: 好信源 · → daily
<a id="atom-677b7ffb6d9ad6ac"></a>🟦 2026-05-20 X·@DeItaone · 对利率暂停时长的判断 · 宏观利率
FED MINUTES: OFFICIALS GENERALLY JUDGED RATE PAUSE WILL EXTEND LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: date=2026-05-20
<a id="atom-73350e1ebdd36d10"></a>🟦 2026-05-20 X·@DeItaone · 多数委员倾向从声明中删除宽松偏倚 · 监管政策/宏观利率
FED: MANY PREFERRED REMOVING EASING BIAS FROM STATEMENT
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: direction=移除宽松偏倚
<a id="atom-f11d088a3849205d"></a>🟦 2026-05-20 X·@DeItaone · 加息可能性表述 · 宏观利率
*FED: MAJORITY SAW HIKE LIKELY WARRANTED IF INFLATION PERSISTS
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: direction=up
<a id="atom-77537a5e66305f65"></a>🟦 2026-05-20 X·@DeItaone ⭐ · 通胀预期失控担忧 · 宏观利率
*FED: SOME WERE CONCERNED INFLATION EXPECTATIONS COULD DE-ANCHOR
tags: 好信源·好思考 · → daily
value: direction=up
<a id="atom-e17e9237077bdeb8"></a>🟦 2026-05-20 X·@FirstSquawk · 倾向收紧政策 · 宏观利率
FED MINUTES: MOST PARTICIPANTS INDICATED THAT TIGHTENING POLICY WOULD PROBABLY BE WARRANTED SHOULD INFLATION KEEP RUNNING PERSISTENTLY ABOVE THE 2% TARGET.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: condition=若通胀持续高于2%目标

⏱ 时间轴 (近 20)

🟥 2026-07-02 · narrative · 降息概率 50%+ · → daily
🟦 2026-06-22 · fact · 主席Warsh作证安排 · → daily
🟥 2026-06-19 · narrative · 文章建议被AI取代 · → daily
🟥 2026-06-17 · forecast · 加息可能性评估 · → daily
🟦 2026-06-17 · fact · 会议时间安排 · → daily
🟥 2026-06-17 · forecast · 政策预期 · → daily
🟦 2026-06-17 · fact · 利率决议 · → daily
🟦 2026-06-17 · fact · 利率决策 · → daily
🟦 2026-06-17 · fact · 2026年加息预期 · → daily
🟦 2026-06-17 · fact · 基准利率决议 · → daily
🟦 2026-06-17 · fact · 政策声明移除额外利率调整指引 · → daily
🟦 2026-06-17 · fact · 利率决议 · → daily
🟦 2026-06-17 · fact · 2026 GDP 预测中位数 · → daily
🟦 2026-06-17 · fact · median rate forecast next 2 yrs · → daily
🟦 2026-06-17 · fact · 2026年GDP增长预测 · → daily
🟦 2026-06-17 · fact · 长期GDP增长预测 · → daily
🟦 2026-06-17 · fact · 基准利率区间 · → daily
🟦 2026-06-17 · fact · 2026年加息预期委员数 · → daily
🟦 2026-06-17 · fact · 项目参与者数（2026加息） · → daily
🟦 2026-06-17 · fact · 2026年加息偏好 · → daily

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