以下部分引用 AI 总结，现阶段 AI 仍然有幻觉。请以内容的原文为准。

数据新鲜度群聊 07-14 ✓卖方 07-14 ✓Wrap 断档15天 ✕News 07-15 ✓X 断档12天 ✕页面生成 07-15

SIVE

729 atoms · 跨 71 天 · 首见 2026-04-15 · 最近 2026-07-03

三色: 🟦 fact 321 · 🟥 take 408 · stance ▲400/▼72/◆48

叙事状态: 🍂 fading (退潮) · 💤 沉寂 · 策展近14d 0 atom · 🐦 X 近14d 21

状态只算低频策展源 (群/卖方); X firehose 仅作背景音量

来源: X 729

时态: fresh:609 · aging:79 · stale:40 · expired:1

标签: 好观点:313 · 好数字:266 · 好信源:129 · 好思考:76 · 好问题:9

🟨 AI 综合 · junior analyst 概览

展开 AI 综合 (灰色 · 非市场结论 · 点击数字溯源到原 atom)

model: deepseek-chat · 2026-07-12 · 默认折叠

SIVE 的营收管线在几个月内暴增 77% 至约 7.99 亿美元 ¹ ¹，CEO 明确表示 2028 年初营收将达 5000 万美元 ¹，公司紧急融资 7000 万美元用于量产 ¹。多头认为 2027 年 SIVE 可能成为 100 亿+ 美元公司 ¹，且 InP DFB 激光器仍是 CPO 技术焦点 ¹。空头则质疑尚未见到任何第三方数据证明 SIVE 优于竞争对手 ¹，并指出其 2028 年 InP 有效产能仅能达到 LITE 的 10–15% ¹。此外，空头规模太小不足以形成挤兑 ¹，且瑞典交易所面临宏观与光子主题抛售的不利因素 ¹。

🧭 拥挤度 (一人一票): ▲ 29 位作者 (KOL29) vs ▼ 24 位作者 (KOL24)

⚖️ 多头 29/29 来自KOL

📄 广泛报道的事实 · 2 个

展开 (多人转述同一事实/数字 — 确认度高, **非独立观点**, 不标多空)

股价年初至今涨幅 — 2 源报道 · X
股价涨幅 — 2 源报道 · X

🔗 因果传导 (causal map)

*SIVE 在产业链上的传导关系. 边是群里/卖方陈述的因果 (非 AI 推断), 数字 = 几条 atom 支撑. 点 atom 溯源.*

↓ 下游·近期陈述 (1)

🟢 下游激光器厂商 · 产能依赖 · 1 次陈述
Sivers is the laser bottleneck

↑ 上游·近期陈述 (1)

🟢 AEVA · 订单转移 · 1 次陈述
$SIVE is has a decent chance to be in Boston Dynamics humanoid programs through $AEVA and LG Innotek

📊 程序化变化 (近 7 天)

已过期 forecast: 1 条

展开过期列表

[已过期] 2024-2026-05-25 · 预计潜在涨幅类比_LITE
$SIVE is highest possible upside, since I see them being the next $LITE (which started at ~$2.6B as well in 2024, but no

🟦 客观事实 (facts) (30)

<a id="atom-b47fc3f6cc7c955e"></a>🟦 2026-05-30 X·@OGCapital25 ⭐ · CEO 表示 2028 年初营收达 5000 万美元 · 业绩指引
The CEO very explicitly stated that revenue will hit $50m early 2028
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$50m · date=early 2028
<a id="atom-b8d1b01432d932cd"></a>🟦 2026-06-09 X·@TomaszDawi98421 · 收到 8.2M 生产订单 · 订单需求
Awards $8.2M Production Order to Sivers Semiconductors for Ka-Band Beamforming ICs
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$8.2M
<a id="atom-ecb9cb555ce50217"></a>🟦 2026-05-19 X·@marketsjoe · S&P Global报告的空头比例 · 仓位情绪
The data was from S&P Global. It's since increased to about 17.1%
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=约17.1%
<a id="atom-3668546e246820ab"></a>🟦 2026-05-08 X·@PerDahlstrm · 股东持股明细 · 仓位情绪
CBNY-NATIONAL FINANCIAL SERVICES LL 持股数: 35,698,837
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=35,698,837 shares held by CBNY-NATIONAL FINANCIAL SERVICES LL
[图: Sivers Semiconductors 股东持股明细表 — CBNY-NATIONAL FINANCIAL SERVICES LL 持股数: 35,698,837; CBNY-CHARLES SCHWAB FBO CUSTOMER 持股数: 35,555,000; IBKR FINANCIAL SERVICES AG, W8IMY 持股数: 28
📷 原图
<a id="atom-b9a5e90a9cf2075b"></a>🟦 2026-05-07 X·@aleabitoreddit · CPO TAM projection by GS · TAM
GS projects CPO going from $1B -> $91B TAM over the next two years
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$1B -> $91B · date=over the next two years
📷 原图
<a id="atom-577eace8e38f7cf4"></a>🟦 2026-05-02 X·@MoodyWriter13 · 发布完整投资论文时的股价 · 估值
$SIVE 我以SEK 3.90发布完整Substack投资论文
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=SEK 3.90 · date=2026-01-02
<a id="atom-83bdeae098024b48"></a>🟦 2026-07-03 X·@yuntungshieh · 在光子ETF中占比 · ETF/持仓
SIVE with 2.6% share
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=2.6%
<a id="atom-6a24f4f824deee4b"></a>🟦 2026-07-02 X·@aleabitoreddit · 紧急融资 · 融资
$SIVE just raised an emergency $70M for mass production likely for allocation from fabs.
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$70M
<a id="atom-826fa05b11ca31db"></a>🟦 2026-06-21 X·@aleabitoreddit · 1.6T光收发器联合开发 · 产品发布/合作客户
Sivers and Jabil went god-mode and developed 1.6T optical transceivers with CW lasers.
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=1.6T
<a id="atom-ea6c7b50d8365904"></a>🟦 2026-06-09 X·@Sofigoodboy · 계약 수주 · 订单需求
$sive, All Space로부터 $8.2M 계약 수주
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$8.2M · date=-
<a id="atom-e1097ab55bf72fb6"></a>🟦 2026-05-30 X·@aleabitoreddit · pipeline growth rate · 订单需求/营收
Turns out they got 77% pipeline growth in just a few months
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=77% · date=just a few months
<a id="atom-90de3377ef208fc4"></a>🟦 2026-05-25 X·@aleabitoreddit · CHIPS法案受益者地位 · 政府补贴
$SIVE is one of the few CHIPS act recipients, and especially in Sweden. And if you don’t remember, they received another $6.6M CHIPS act award last week.
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$6.6M
📷 原图
<a id="atom-2abdd0b532af3752"></a>🟦 2026-05-25 X·@aleabitoreddit · 估值对比_private_CPO_players · 估值/供给产能
Ayar, Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence are probably valued probably ~$4B-15B+ today.
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$4B-15B+ · date=2026-05-25
<a id="atom-e53ae727a3197e23"></a>🟦 2026-05-25 X·@aleabitoreddit · 与 Ayar 的激光器供应关系 · 融资/合作客户
Ayar raised $500M for volume ramp recently, and $SIVE is the primary / sole source laser supplier.
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
📷 原图
<a id="atom-d9c4ce7f9937283b"></a>🟦 2026-05-20 X·@aleabitoreddit · 1.6T LRO功耗 · 技术路线/数据中心算力
which is about 11 kilowatts dramatically lower than current 1.6T power profiles
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=11 kW · direction=lower than current
📷 原图
<a id="atom-ce7601209354ffe1"></a>🟦 2026-05-19 X·@user637826 · 获得美国微电子公共项目资助 · 订单需求/政府资助
$SIVE just got $6.6M Year 2 from U.S. Microelectronics Commons
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$6.6M · date=Year 2
<a id="atom-d3e87a40721e4256"></a>🟦 2026-05-19 X·@aleabitoreddit · 获得CHIPS ACT资金 · 资本开支/监管政策
$SIVE gets $6.6M from the US CHIPS ACT. This is a $6.6M Year 2 Program. In collaboration with BAE Systems: "Modernizing U.S. Defense Infrastructure Using Sivers Technology"
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$6.6M · date=Year2
📷 原图
<a id="atom-5848966c711ee411"></a>🟦 2026-05-19 X·@aleabitoreddit · 做空比例 · 仓位情绪
$SIVE short interest is around ~17% of free float apparently from some third party data
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=~17% of free float · date=current
📷 原图
<a id="atom-58bae7a2e6d0bf1a"></a>🟦 2026-05-19 X·@tomhou101 · 截至5月18日的报告空头比例 · 仓位情绪
Reported short interest as of May 18th is close to 9%.
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=接近9% · date=May 18th
<a id="atom-ce9a1805ed659004"></a>🟦 2026-05-14 X·@aleabitoreddit · prototypes to be demonstrated to customers during first half of 2026, scaling production by end of 2026 · 产品发布/出货量
"The collaboration positions both companies to address the rapidly growing market for optical AI connectivity, with prototypes to be demonstrated to customers during the first half of 2026 and with the goal of scaling up production by the end of 2026"
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: date=2026 H1-2026 H2
📷 原图
<a id="atom-c08bb1309317c997"></a>🟦 2026-05-14 X·@aleabitoreddit · largest LIDAR customer will increase production starting Q4 2026 · 出货量/营收
"We are pleased that our largest LIDAR customer will increase production starting in the fourth quarter of 2026"
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: date=2026 Q4
📷 原图
<a id="atom-dba0a41b61ca60ae"></a>🟦 2026-05-03 X·@aleabitoreddit · market cap · 估值
companies like $SIVE, MSSCorps are still in the $1B range
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$1B range
<a id="atom-5db800bd698180aa"></a>🟦 2026-04-27 X·@aleabitoreddit · 技术匹配 · 技术路线
$SIVE / Carnegie research released 135 Wavelength arechitectures, which matches Apple application specifications
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=135 · date=
[图: 关于Sivers公司潜在F100客户（如苹果）预测的卖方分析报告文本截图 — 30,000 chips (首家客户订购用于测试的芯片数量); 50m units (询价单指示性年出货量); USD130m (预计年收入)]
📷 原图
<a id="atom-94b0b9336ada6652"></a>🟦 2026-04-16 X·@aleabitoreddit · 融资额 · 融资
Sivers raises $13.5M+ from long term institutional investors (eg. pension funds/institutional investors), de-risking balance sheet issues
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$13.5M+
📷 原图
<a id="atom-470543a7635301c4"></a>🟦 2026-05-29 X·@mantisshrimp222 · CEO电话会议提及的机会领域 · TAM/技术路线
Listening to the call right now huge opportunity in three sectors, space, defence, AI with both photonics and satcom/wireless.
tags: 好信源·好观点 · → daily
value: text=space, defence, AI with both photonics and satcom/wireless
<a id="atom-d9a7c286f9faf3a2"></a>🟦 2026-07-02 X·@aleabitoreddit · 营收管道增长 · 营收
Increasing your entire revenue pipeline by 77% in a single quarter is extremely good numbers.
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: qty=+77% · date=单季
<a id="atom-2e1454e246795078"></a>🟦 2026-06-02 X·@softmaxedx · share price · 价格动态
The difficult part is seeing those pieces when the share price is 3 SEK, not 100 SEK.
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: qty=3 SEK · date=past
📷 原图
<a id="atom-3bdc0bc2ab028bf3"></a>🟦 2026-06-25 X·@aleabitoreddit · 毛利率指引 · 毛利率
50% to 60%+ gross margins once we are firmly and predominantly product revenue driven
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=50% to 60%+ · date=product revenue driven
📷 原图
<a id="atom-e1047671a768952c"></a>🟦 2026-05-29 X·@aleabitoreddit · 未来毛利率预期 · 毛利率
We see 60% gross margins in the future
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=60%
📷 原图
<a id="atom-ea32d87d808be9a6"></a>🟦 2026-06-16 X·@PepInvestStocks · 期权期货上市日期 · 产品发布
Nasdaq has officially announced that standardized derivatives, including options and futures, will be introduced for Sivers Semiconductors shares starting June 29
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: date=2026-06-29
[图: Nasdaq交易所关于Sivers Semiconductors (SIVE) 和 Octave Intelligence (OCTV) 上市标准化衍生品的通知公告及参数表格 — SIVE风险参数: 67%; OCTV风险参数: 16%; SIVE最小大宗交易规模: 10; OCTV最小大宗交易规模: 30; 交易开始日期: 2026年7月6日]
📷 原图

🟥 多头 takes (bullish) (30)

<a id="atom-19faf4e3e3ae9d32"></a>🟥 2026-06-01 X·@aleabitoreddit · 营收管线增长 · 营收预测/订单需求
many will start crying if they see $SIVE balloon forward revenue pipelines 77% from $JBL photonics 1.6T LRO in just a few months
tags: 好数字·好思考 · → daily
value: qty=77% · direction=from JBL photonics 1.6T LRO
📷 原图
<a id="atom-0baf3ec8054f4c84"></a>🟥 2026-05-19 X·@aleabitoreddit · 2027年市值预估 · 估值
I personally think $SIVE ends up a $10B+ company in 2027, so 8-10x.
tags: 好数字·好思考 · → daily
value: qty=$10B+ · date=2027
<a id="atom-a06d21e7e7e0fd3c"></a>🟥 2026-05-13 X·@aleabitoreddit · 新增买入资金估算 · 资金流入
I did some calculations and it might be around $25-$32m worth of new inflow buying pressure?
tags: 好数字·好思考 · → daily
value: qty=$25-32m
<a id="atom-b44dea7f7fcacf37"></a>🟥 2026-04-21 X·@aleabitoreddit · 合理市值 · 估值
Around ~$2B sounds reasonable to me.
tags: 好数字·好思考 · → daily
value: qty=~$2B
<a id="atom-68cd84b1572a056e"></a>🟥 2026-06-16 X·@aleabitoreddit · CPO技术路线焦点 · 技术路线/竞争格局
Next phase in CPO for long term, believes InP DFB lasers remains the focus (hello $SIVE)
tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
value: item=InP DFB lasers
📷 原图
<a id="atom-f4a89a88ef2d047c"></a>🟥 2026-06-21 X·@aleabitoreddit · 与Lumentum市值起点比较 · 估值
SIVE is around the same starting point as Lumentum today.
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
<a id="atom-3525279392fef4a4"></a>🟥 2026-06-14 X·@hisarchive · 股价目标 · 评级目标价
Sivers Semiconductors $SIVE 150 Sek (~$15 USD) Friday. Mark it.
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: qty=150 SEK (~$15 USD) · date=2026-06-19
<a id="atom-7b8902cf06938b8b"></a>🟥 2026-05-29 X·@aleabitoreddit · 营收管道增长至 · 营收增长
$SIVE is also ramping absurdly high, 77% revenue pipeline growth of the entire company’s history to ~$799M
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: qty=~$799M · direction=增长77%
<a id="atom-d6b0f0637d03d855"></a>🟥 2026-05-29 X·@aleabitoreddit · 毛利率预测 · 毛利率
And they’re projecting 60% gross margins off that.
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: qty=60% · date=单季度
<a id="atom-5555df0044fb100d"></a>🟥 2026-05-29 X·@aleabitoreddit · 市价预测 · 市值预测
$SIVE - $30B MC
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: qty=$30B · date=1年后
<a id="atom-15c76131d17b203a"></a>🟥 2026-05-19 X·@aleabitoreddit · short interest 推测 · 仓位情绪
$SIVE short interest is probably higher than 17%+ now.
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: qty=高于17%+
📷 原图
<a id="atom-5b210e598a5f4c76"></a>🟥 2026-05-11 X·@aleabitoreddit · 市值预测 2026年 · 估值
I think $SIVE ends up $10B+ next year
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: qty=$10B+ · date=2026
<a id="atom-3fa73ec0b49dc38c"></a>🟥 2026-05-11 X·@aleabitoreddit · 市值预测 2028年 · 估值
and can scale to $40B+ in 2028 if they play their cards right.
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: qty=$40B+ · date=2028
<a id="atom-1f31f202b6fec85d"></a>🟥 2026-05-11 X·@aleabitoreddit · expected market cap if listed in US · 估值
I said I expected $SIVE to be around ~$3B if they were listed on US markets.
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: qty=~$3B · date=today
<a id="atom-c68760b1573e5748"></a>🟥 2026-05-11 X·@aleabitoreddit · expected market cap next year · 估值
And could be $10B+ next year
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: qty=$10B+ · date=next year
<a id="atom-402948c52dd1c41b"></a>🟥 2026-05-04 X·@Aktiehedonist · 2027年来自LIDAR加国防/SATCOM营收可达到100-150M · 营收
By 2027 you can probably underwrite 100-150M USD in revenue from LIDAR ramp plus defense/SATCOM conversion alone
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: qty=100-150M USD · date=2027
<a id="atom-34450b53b8d8f654"></a>🟥 2026-05-01 X·@aleabitoreddit · 2026年营收预期 · 营收预测
I genuinely do see them being $10B+ next year
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: qty=$10B+ · date=2026
<a id="atom-9afb6e2d3fb0ea58"></a>🟥 2026-04-30 X·@aleabitoreddit · 2027年市值预测 · 估值
I see $SIVE at $10B+ in 2027.
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: qty=$10B+ · date=2027
<a id="atom-43930ee3d02a56cc"></a>🟥 2026-04-30 X·@aleabitoreddit · 估值 · 估值
I think $SIVE realistically should be valued around ~$3B today
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: qty=$3B · date=2026-04-30
<a id="atom-2c2581558e9f8ea2"></a>🟥 2026-04-30 X·@aleabitoreddit · 估值预测 · 估值
Next year $10B very possible on volume ramp.
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: qty=$10B · date=2027-04-30
<a id="atom-b739af095cab325c"></a>🟥 2026-04-15 X·@aleabitoreddit · 市值预期 · 估值/市值预测
I think $SIVE has a long way to go, $10B+ in 2 years time is genuinely possible.
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: qty=$10B+ · date=2 years time
<a id="atom-40a35b923be1d85f"></a>🟥 2026-06-02 X·@aleabitoreddit · NVDA nvlink fusion生态系统激光供应商地位 · 合作客户/供应链
It’s really big news to have $SIVE as the laser supplier to $NVDA nvlink fusion ecosystem.
tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
<a id="atom-290af433b54c78ba"></a>🟥 2026-06-21 X·@aleabitoreddit · CPO规模向上激光器供应商角色 · 技术路线/数据中心算力
scale up CPO is h2 2027, from Ayar and Nvidia NVLink CPO ecosystem and that's the main volume ramp across optical players But this is where SIVE looks like they mog every other player from supply chain mapping.
tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
value: date=H2 2027
<a id="atom-93bd5e1453dc48a6"></a>🟥 2026-06-21 X·@aleabitoreddit · 与Marvell Celestial等合作历史 · 合作客户/技术路线
they've likely been working + designed in with Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence and the others since they were small way back when
tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
<a id="atom-7a0eefa1b127d709"></a>🟥 2026-06-21 X·@aleabitoreddit · NVDA CPO生态系统估值重估潜力 · 数据中心算力/估值
If there any release over the more higher confidence mapping to NVDA cpo ecosystem, I'd expect it to rerate a lot more
tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
<a id="atom-fe18b6b0a3815fcf"></a>🟥 2026-05-25 X·@aleabitoreddit · 预计估值_高于_private_CPO_players · 估值/定价权
I'd expect $SIVE to command similar if not higher valuations given laser chokepoint premiums.
tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
value: direction=higher
<a id="atom-160630153473a64a"></a>🟥 2026-05-25 X·@aleabitoreddit [已过期] · 预计潜在涨幅类比LITE · 估值/供给产能_
$SIVE is highest possible upside, since I see them being the next $LITE (which started at ~$2.6B as well in 2024, but now is $80B).
tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
value: qty=~$80B · date=2024-2026-05-25
<a id="atom-48f82ec077166603"></a>🟥 2026-05-19 X·@aleabitoreddit · 与 AAPL 关于定制激光器的下一个周期更新可能在 H2 2027 或 2028 · 订单需求/合作客户
the next cyle refresh is likely Sivers for hyper-customized lasers. Maybe H2 2027 or 2028.
tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
value: date=H2 2027 or 2028
📷 原图
<a id="atom-653d7a49cf7b9d87"></a>🟥 2026-05-12 X·@aleabitoreddit · 未来增长预期 · 数据中心算力/技术路线
I expect $SIVE to keep delivering record growth as AI, SiPH, and CPO drive structural re-rating
tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
[图: Raspberry Pi Holdings PLC (LON: RPI) 的股价走势图（年初至今 YTD） — 当前股价: 697.00 GBX; 年初至今涨幅: +398.40 (133.42%); 2月12日股价: 272.00 GBX; 市值: 1.34B]
📷 原图
<a id="atom-7ed6cb03e038343a"></a>🟥 2026-05-12 X·@aleabitoreddit [老化中] · 商业模式特点 · 资本开支/供给产能
SIVE ships their designs off to Win Semi / GFS which handles all the production. Which is why I liked this model a lot more since it reduces a lot of capex and dilution risk until they make material revenue to vertically integrate.
tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily

🟥 空头 takes (bearish) (30)

<a id="atom-b99c1d389dd11c09"></a>🟥 2026-06-11 X·@jukan05 · 相对于竞品的优越性证据状态 · 竞争格局
I still haven't seen any third-party or authoritative data showing that SIVE is superior to its competitors.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
<a id="atom-33ccc9d15d181c30"></a>🟥 2026-06-03 X·@cherryPayment · 空头利息日成本 · 仓位情绪
一天就是19万美金
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=19万美金 · date=每日
<a id="atom-b4a733f9b3061793"></a>🟥 2026-06-02 X·@ShanghaoJin · 空头规模是否足够形成挤兑 · 仓位情绪
总的空头太小了，完全不形成挤兑
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: direction=空头太小
<a id="atom-81e72f803bd2904f"></a>🟥 2026-05-29 X·@LIWEI_TWCapital · 28年产能与LITE对比 · 供给产能
到 2028 年底，SIVE 透過穩懋 outsourcing + Glasgow 自有 fab 所能取得的有效 InP 產能，大概只能達到 LITE 的 10–15%
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=10–15% · date=2028年底
<a id="atom-92a5eac3a96e355c"></a>🟥 2026-06-25 X·@aleabitoreddit · 面临不利因素 · 地缘政治/仓位情绪
having negative macro news compounded with photonics theme selloff. Especially on a Swedish exchange, certainly doesn’t help.
tags: 好思考 · → daily
value: direction=negative
<a id="atom-7bdcf0a6dcb7a27f"></a>🟥 2026-06-03 X·@ShanghaoJin · 成交量不足以让空头顺利退出 · 仓位情绪
SIVE这成交量，空头出来血流漂杵，伏尸百万
tags: 好思考 · → daily
value: direction=否
<a id="atom-8474ddc1f068965c"></a>🟥 2026-05-28 X·@Franktradinglog · 财报表现 · 财报
如果sive财报暴跌
tags: 好思考 · → daily
value: direction=暴跌
<a id="atom-e470e8835b42ef00"></a>🟥 2026-05-26 X·@beefcubee · 没有看涨期权可供Gamma挤压 · 仓位情绪
没有call 可以gamma squeeze
tags: 好思考 · → daily
<a id="atom-0aa560bd76b6d2da"></a>🟥 2026-05-25 X·@jasonschips · 机会管道扩大同时收入未达标 · 订单需求/营收
Maybe for them to announce that their "opportunity pipeline" expanded again while simultaneously missing on revenues.
tags: 好思考 · → daily
📷 原图
<a id="atom-21f430a7a2bef451"></a>🟥 2026-05-06 X·@RYANHINGSHING [老化中] · POET产业链，被MRVL剔除可能 · 竞争格局/供应链
SIVE是POET产业链，会不会被MRVL剔除成疑问
tags: 好思考 · → daily
<a id="atom-8b837b6b64567fb3"></a>🟥 2026-04-27 X·@aleabitoreddit · later projections slowed · 营收预测
this does materially slow later 2028-2029 projections a bit (eg. $500m Q4 Celestial, $1B 2029)
tags: 好思考 · → daily
<a id="atom-8d06be265c75bb21"></a>🟥 2026-07-01 X·@LIWEI_TWCapital · 股价高位时被建议减仓 · 仓位情绪
When the stock was near the top, experienced accounts like @jukan05, @mkfilko, and myself were publicly telling people to start trimming positions.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
📷 原图
<a id="atom-bd1c2027a60a8d2c"></a>🟥 2026-07-01 X·@LIWEI_TWCapital · 新手投资者在股价高位恐慌后归咎他人 · 仓位情绪
Looks like a lot of newer $SIVE investors are panicking… and desperately searching for someone to blame.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
📷 原图
<a id="atom-a7669b086be011f4"></a>🟥 2026-06-27 X·@aleabitoreddit · revenue materiality near term due to humanoid unit volume · 订单需求/出货量
I don’t see it being too material to revenue near term since the leading humanoid companies have only made ~10K so far
tags: 好观点 · → daily
<a id="atom-f329788c3226330f"></a>🟥 2026-06-13 X·@Omercheema · 技术缺乏有意义的差异化 · 竞争格局
Its technology lacks meaningful differentiation.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
<a id="atom-538b3515caccfa23"></a>🟥 2026-06-13 X·@Omercheema · 执行持续疲软 · 管理层表态
Execution has been consistently weak.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
<a id="atom-0a00f79901612733"></a>🟥 2026-06-13 X·@Omercheema · 制造能力最多算平庸 · 供给产能
Manufacturing capabilities remain mediocre at best.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
<a id="atom-c75e887cbda821d6"></a>🟥 2026-06-13 X·@Omercheema · 7亿美元管线基本无意义 · 订单需求
The much-touted $700M pipeline is largely meaningless.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: qty=$700M
<a id="atom-59005eee18814e91"></a>🟥 2026-06-11 X·@ScroogeCap · 当前市场状态 · 仓位情绪
This sums up the current state of the markets. $SIVE
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: direction=bearish
📷 原图
<a id="atom-1633c6de8b6048b2"></a>🟥 2026-06-09 X·@ShanghaoJin · is FOMO stock · 仓位情绪
说明SIVE完全是fomo票
tags: 好观点 · → daily
<a id="atom-6c7b18f7a32a40b1"></a>🟥 2026-06-09 X·@ShanghaoJin · 可插拔真可拉倒吧 · 技术路线
sive 可插拔真可拉倒吧
tags: 好观点 · → daily
<a id="atom-d0f19685607b417a"></a>🟥 2026-06-09 X·@ShanghaoJin · 给源杰提鞋都不配 · 竞争格局
SIVE给源杰提鞋都不配
tags: 好观点 · → daily
<a id="atom-db34976d444fd8de"></a>🟥 2026-06-09 X·@ShanghaoJin · 没产能还要找人代工，代工PDK都没有 · 供给产能
SIVE没产能还要找人代工，代工PDK都没有
tags: 好观点 · → daily
<a id="atom-4cdb2c699fc234eb"></a>🟥 2026-06-09 X·@Yeah_Dave · 若 CPO 延迟则受负面影响 · 供给产能/技术路线
potentially less good for $WOLF, $NVTS, $SIVE, etc if true
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: direction=negative
<a id="atom-7582c430960f26c4"></a>🟥 2026-06-08 X·@aleabitoreddit · 供应流通股情况 · 仓位情绪
Float is heavily shorted by Swedish Hedge Funds and random algorithmic ones
tags: 好观点 · → daily
[图: Sivers Semiconductors AB (STO: SIVE) 的单日股价走势图 — 当前股价: 87.05 SEK; 今日涨幅: +10.47%; 今日涨跌额: +8.25; 开盘价: 75.15; 市值: 25.78B]
📷 原图
<a id="atom-8ce4368876491785"></a>🟥 2026-06-02 X·@ShanghaoJin · SIVE期权 gamma squeeze 可能性 · 仓位情绪
没有option可以gamma squeeze
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: direction=无
<a id="atom-d747b47c63eaf8e7"></a>🟥 2026-06-01 X·@Sofigoodboy · 被指无法与Lumentum和Coherent产品竞争 · 竞争格局
$sive가 루멘텀이나 코히런트의 제품과 경쟁할 수 없기 때문에 엔비디아 생태계에 진입하지 못했다고 지적함
tags: 好观点 · → daily
📷 原图
<a id="atom-fccb4119be03c11c"></a>🟥 2026-05-30 X·@TheBigBerbowski [老旧] · 不被看好的投资标的 · 仓位情绪
Not $SIVE
tags: 好观点 · → daily
<a id="atom-12bb07e6647edb3a"></a>🟥 2026-05-29 X·@asksecondorder · 短期看跌 · 仓位情绪/管理层表态
Short term bearish, will need to see how management execute.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: date=short term
<a id="atom-518690ef2627bfaa"></a>🟥 2026-05-27 X·@bboczeng · 周五财报Short Squeeze失败 · 财报/仓位情绪
$SIVE 周五财报Short Squeeze失败
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: direction=down

🟥 中性 takes (neutral) (17)

<a id="atom-0fcd35c87b3b947e"></a>🟥 2026-06-02 X·@XtineFang · 股价短期涨幅 · 价格动态
a retail-driven pump ... has driven a 1,800%+ rally in $SIVE.ST
tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=1,800%+
📷 原图
<a id="atom-b692d3586489a53c"></a>🟥 2026-05-07 X·@Sofigoodboy · 레이저 공급 부족 심화 · 供给产能
레이저 공급 부족 심화, 2027년까지 해소가 어려울 전망
tags: 好观点·好数字 · → daily
[图: 三星证券关于激光器（Lumentum与Coherent）供应短缺及英伟达投资计划的市场分析图表 — EML激光器供需缺口: 25~30%; 预计供应紧张持续至: 2027年; 英伟达对Lumentum投资额: 20亿美元; 英伟达对Coherent投资额: 20亿美元]
📷 原图
<a id="atom-9951bc27f9d5faca"></a>🟥 2026-04-30 X·@aleabitoreddit [老化中] · 市值 · 市值
Again $1.3B is literal spare change for hyperscalers and US institutions.
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$1.3B · date=2026-04-30
<a id="atom-16939b1c0c1b73d3"></a>🟥 2026-06-23 X·@aleabitoreddit · Apple 可穿戴设备光学传感模块用途 · 产品发布
“Optical sensing modules for wearables” from biometric and health monitoring
tags: 好信源 · → daily
📷 原图
<a id="atom-c9363fe324f707fa"></a>🟥 2026-05-26 X·@NickSung2017 · 存在做多理由，同时Two Sigma存在做空理由 · 仓位情绪/竞争格局
我看多的理由有哪些，2sigma做空的理由有哪些
tags: 好思考 · → daily
<a id="atom-f3d9b57a1c221600"></a>🟥 2026-04-16 X·@aleabitoreddit · 纳斯达克上市时间预估 · IPO时间
My guess is late q3 or q4 this year
tags: 好思考 · → daily
value: date=late q3 or q4 this year
<a id="atom-7c7137747b268dd1"></a>🟥 2026-06-26 X·@MoodyWriter13 · momentum relative to peers · 仓位情绪
$LITE outperformed $SIVE; $XFAB underperformed all of them
tags: 好观点 · → daily
<a id="atom-6ad3a980e2d4c2c9"></a>🟥 2026-06-11 X·@mkfilko [老旧] · 股价预期 · 仓位情绪
If $SIVE answers its questions and the price resets, I will look at re entry.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
<a id="atom-4dec6ff0dba0999f"></a>🟥 2026-05-28 X·@aleabitoreddit · CPO量产时间 · 技术路线
CPO is largely h2 2027.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: date=h2 2027
<a id="atom-d041a45b9632c837"></a>🟥 2026-05-27 X·@ShanghaoJin · 轧空难度 · 仓位情绪
非常难，只要空头足够钱，挤不出来
tags: 好观点 · → daily
<a id="atom-2bfb8ca45ee69ad2"></a>🟥 2026-05-24 X·@R1chardMaur1ce [老旧] · 当前走势被作者视为动量交易 · 仓位情绪
I see them as momentum plays for now
tags: 好观点 · → daily
📷 原图
<a id="atom-af477a25032803ee"></a>🟥 2026-05-11 X·@aleabitoreddit · 归化美国公司可能性 · 并购/地缘政治
I would not be surprised if $SIVE became an American photonics company one day.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
<a id="atom-f6b110a0561d4d80"></a>🟥 2026-05-08 X·@aleabitoreddit · 纳斯达克上市时间预测 · 上市
Maybe August/September is my guess.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: date=2026-08/2026-09
<a id="atom-cf461a1cc7b74983"></a>🟥 2026-05-08 X·@aleabitoreddit [老化中] · 当前下跌是调整 · 价格动态
Nothing, just a slight correction.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
<a id="atom-c6f974213e5d96d6"></a>🟥 2026-04-30 X·@aleabitoreddit [老化中] · 机构持仓限制 · 仓位限制
There’s also fund mandates preventing US funds from entering (eg. Nasdaq listing / $1B MC)
tags: 好观点 · → daily
<a id="atom-3edd0790e3830905"></a>🟥 2026-05-27 X·@RealMETAHENRY · 轧空效果与GME比较 · 仓位情绪
不懂就问，这种没有期权的，轧空效果有GME好呢么
tags: 好问题 · → daily
<a id="atom-9d773afc7edd0226"></a>🟥 2026-05-27 X·@beauty_oe · 量产能否实现 · 供给产能/良率
実際に量産できるかどうかが明暗を分ける
tags: 好问题 · → daily
📷 原图

⏱ 时间轴 (近 20)

🟦 2026-07-03 · position · 在作者投资组合中占较大集中度 · → daily
🟦 2026-07-03 · fact · 在光子ETF中占比 · → daily
🟦 2026-07-03 · fact · 被纳入SemiAnalysis的光子ETF · → daily
🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · 单日涨幅 · → daily
🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · 紧急融资 · → daily
🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · 上市意向 · → daily
🟥 2026-07-02 · narrative · 客户关系 · → daily
🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · 营收管道增长 · → daily
🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · 股价 · → daily
🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · 历史目标买入价 · → daily
🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · Poet와 협업하여 2026년 시제품 및 양산 준비 · → daily
🟦 2026-07-01 · fact · 持仓数量 · → daily
🟦 2026-07-01 · fact · 纳斯达克上市时间表意向 · → daily
🟥 2026-07-01 · narrative · 上市进展描述 · → daily
🟥 2026-07-01 · narrative · 股价高位时被建议减仓 · → daily
🟥 2026-07-01 · narrative · 新手投资者在股价高位恐慌后归咎他人 · → daily
🟦 2026-06-30 · fact · 募集资金 · → daily
🟦 2026-06-30 · fact · 融资规模 · → daily
🟦 2026-06-30 · fact · 融资认购倍数 · → daily
🟦 2026-06-30 · fact · 融资用途 · → daily

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