以下部分引用 AI 总结，现阶段 AI 仍然有幻觉。请以内容的原文为准。

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Kalshi

111 atoms · 跨 45 天 · 首见 2026-04-16 · 最近 2026-07-02

三色: 🟦 fact 103 · 🟥 take 8 · stance ▲15/▼8/◆27

叙事状态: 🍂 fading (退潮) · 💤 沉寂 · 策展近14d 0 atom · 🐦 X 近14d 4

状态只算低频策展源 (群/卖方); X firehose 仅作背景音量

来源: X 110 · 卖 1

时态: fresh:108 · aging:2 · stale:1

标签: 好数字:70 · 好信源:54 · 好观点:7 · 好思考:3

别名 (合并): KALSHI

🟨 AI 综合 · junior analyst 概览

展开 AI 综合 (灰色 · 非市场结论 · 点击数字溯源到原 atom)

model: deepseek-chat · 2026-07-12 · 默认折叠

Kalshi 年化营收已突破 20 亿美元 ¹ ¹ ¹，App Store 排名位居免费榜第三 ¹，并与 ADI Predictstreet 合作为世界杯淘汰赛赞助 2000 万美元 ¹。小唐纳德·特朗普在 2025 年以约 20 亿美元估值获得 Kalshi 约 30 万美元股权，如今公司估值已超 220 亿美元 ¹。早期非正式 IPO 筹备讨论已在进行 ¹。然而，Polymarket 与 Kalshi 正向与 SEC 的监管对抗倾斜，争议焦点在于部分合约是否过于类似证券 ¹。在风控层面，Kalshi 今年已调查并标记超过 400 笔可疑交易，较 2025 年全年总量翻番 ¹。有观点指出，真实预测市场的启动需要更多金融而非技术工作 ¹，而超百万富翁投资者认为 AI 将替代初级员工的杂务工作 ¹。

🧭 拥挤度 (一人一票): ▲ 3 位作者 (KOL3) vs ▼ 1 位作者 (KOL1)

📄 广泛报道的事实 · 5 个

展开 (多人转述同一事实/数字 — 确认度高, **非独立观点**, 不标多空)

融资额 — 4 源报道 (含4快讯) · X
年化营收 — 4 源报道 (含4快讯) · X
融资估值 — 2 源报道 (含1快讯) · X
美国预测市场份额 — 2 源报道 (含2快讯) · X
估值 — 2 源报道 (含2快讯) · X

💢 核心分歧 (2 轴)

1. 机构入场 vs 散户依赖症

*topic: 合作客户/仓位情绪 · 5 bull vs 1 bear*

🟢 bullish 侧:

<a id="atom-38d95f5cc2e4beb2"></a>2026-06-08 X·@wallstengine · 认为官方联盟数据有助于更快交易结算和更好用户体验 · 合作客户
Kalshi says official league data should help support faster trade settlement and a better user experience.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
[图: Sportradar Group AG (SRAD) 的股票价格走势及盘前交易数据图表 — 收盘价: $13.90; 收盘跌幅: -2.32%; 盘前价: $14.70; 盘前涨幅: +5.76%]
📷 原图
<a id="atom-cd2be134fafe0ef4"></a>2026-06-20 X·@theinformation · courting investment banks and institutional traders · 合作客户
Kalshi is courting investment banks and institutional traders
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: direction=acquire
<a id="atom-48398925bfbf7cd4"></a>2026-06-22 X·@theinformation · courting investment banks and institutional traders · 合作客户/仓位情绪
Kalshi is courting investment banks and institutional traders as it looks to turn a retail-driven trading surge into a bigger Wall Street business.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
<a id="atom-76af73fb301732bd"></a>2026-06-23 X·@the_dude98 · VC marketing budget expenditure · 仓位情绪_
@thedude98: When you say core product you really mean data labeling. Spinning up a real prediction market would require more of financial work than technical but it seems like that'll be the end goal once poly market and Kalshi blow their VC marketing budgets
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: direction=blow
<a id="atom-06c261039183fcd6"></a>2026-06-26 X·@Techmeme · 与 Arena 合作探索 · 合作客户/用户增长
Sources: Zuckerberg urged execs to explore Polymarket and Kalshi partnerships, as the Arena prediction app targets 100M monthly active "predictors" aged 18-34
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty=100M · date=目标月活 · direction=target

🔴 bearish 侧:

<a id="atom-ff81a532e03e6ca2"></a>2026-06-04 X·@Techmeme · 被Robinhood部分替代作为预测市场提供商 · 竞争格局/合作客户
shifting away from Kalshi as it seeks to diversify its prediction markets providers
tags: 好信源 · → daily

展开 2 条中性

<a id="atom-20009ce24bb4ee70"></a>2026-05-08 X·@DeItaone · 与麦迪逊广场花园宣布多年合作伙伴关系 · 合作客户
KALSHI AND MADISON SQUARE GARDEN ANNOUNCE MULTI-YEAR PARTNERSHIP, NAMING KALSHI AN OFFICIAL PREDICTION MARKET PARTNER OF THE GARDEN
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=multi-year · date=2026-05-08
<a id="atom-714cb0b0ca3f6cde"></a>2026-05-22 X·@Techmeme · 接受反内幕交易信息请求 · 监管政策/仓位情绪
Republican House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer says he requested information from Kalshi and Polymarket on their efforts to prevent insider trading
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: actor=Republican House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer · action=requested information

2. IPO 时间窗 vs 监管不确定性

*topic: IPO/监管政策 · 1 bull vs 3 bear*

🟢 bullish 侧:

<a id="atom-e3cb4cd3eb74042b"></a>2026-06-18 X·@AIStockSavvy · IPO 谈判进展 · IPO
Kalshi Is in Early IPO Talks - The Information
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: date=2026-06-18

🔴 bearish 侧:

<a id="atom-d6d5ba502a110843"></a>2026-04-16 X·@Techmeme · 罚款提议 · 监管政策
Ohio's gambling regulator proposes to fine Kalshi $5M for unlicensed sports gambling
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$5M
<a id="atom-b96ce80ddaedc1b7"></a>2026-04-27 X·@zerohedge · 平台被巴西政府禁用 · 监管政策
Kalshi Among 27 Prediction Platforms Banned In Brazil
tags: 好信源 · → daily
<a id="atom-e25611f89170fb13"></a>2026-05-28 X·@theinformation · 面临 SEC 监管斗争 · 监管政策
The boom is also pushing Polymarket and Kalshi closer to a regulatory fight with the SEC over whether some contracts look too much like securities.
tags: 好观点 · → daily

展开 9 条中性

<a id="atom-e2eb5aca2beb3b8f"></a>2026-05-04 X·@DeItaone [老化中] · 最低交易年龄主张 · 监管政策
Kalshi is still opposing calls to raise the minimum trading age to 21, arguing prediction markets are equivalent to stock trading and should remain 18+.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
[图: 美国11-17岁男孩在过去一年中参与过赌博的比例调查数据图表 — 16岁: 51%; 17岁: 49%; 15岁: 37%; 11岁: 32%; 12岁: 30%]
📷 原图
<a id="atom-06fe752fdf42f11a"></a>2026-05-16 X·@FirstSquawk · 被监管调查 · 监管政策
U.S. market regulators are seeking information from Kalshi and Polymarket over wagers tied to political events and military operations-WSJ
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty= · date=
<a id="atom-ed60daeba002f9a7"></a>2026-05-17 X·@Techmeme · 被美国当局发出信息请求 · 监管政策
US authorities in recent months have issued multiple information requests to Kalshi and Polymarket, many tied to wagers on events in Iran and Venezuela
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty=multiple · date=recent months
<a id="atom-4bde5f65d422832f"></a>2026-05-26 X·@Techmeme · 被西班牙封锁 · 监管政策
Spain says it is blocking Polymarket and Kalshi as a precautionary measure while it probes possible gambling law violations
tags: 好信源 · → daily
<a id="atom-852dd13ce4685190"></a>2026-06-03 X·@DeItaone · 向司法部举报Santos可疑交易 · 监管政策
Kalshi reported former Rep. George Santos to the U.S. Department of Justice over suspicious trading activity
tags: 好信源 · → daily

📏 估计带 (1)

*语料内对同一量的估计区间 (≥2 个估计才成带). 不判断谁对, 只陈列.*

营收 2026: $2B · 2 个估计 · 最新 2026-06-25 $2B (X·cred4)

🟦 客观事实 (facts) (30)

<a id="atom-523615b112f63151"></a>🟦 2026-05-16 X·@Techmeme ⭐ · 调查可疑交易数 · 监管审查
Sources: Kalshi has probed and flagged 400+ suspicious trades YTD, more than 2x the number it investigated in all of 2025
tags: 好信源·好数字 · → daily
value: qty=400+ · date=2026 YTD
<a id="atom-db6a059675d78693"></a>🟦 2026-06-22 X·@theinformation · 年化营收突破 · 营收
Kalshi passes $2B in annualized revenue
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$2B · date=现在
<a id="atom-d025794f2942b97b"></a>🟦 2026-06-26 X·@Techmeme · valuation increased · 估值/融资
Sources: Donald Trump Jr. got ~$300K in Kalshi equity after becoming a strategic adviser in 2025, when Kalshi was valued at ~$2B; now it's worth $22B+
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$2B to $22B+ · direction=up
<a id="atom-63f80394eec778ef"></a>🟦 2026-06-18 X·@Yueqi_Yang · 年化营收 · 营收
Kalshi has surpassed $2 billion in annualized revenue
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$2 billion · date=2026-06-18
<a id="atom-25507a8ead725e1b"></a>🟦 2026-06-18 X·@Techmeme · 年化营收 · 营收
Sources: Kalshi is generating $2B+ in annualized revenue, up about three times from November
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$2B+ · date=2026-06-18
<a id="atom-b5a2a0576db0646d"></a>🟦 2026-06-18 X·@Yueqi_Yang · IPO 筹备状态 · IPO
held early, informal talks with investment banks about an IPO
tags: 好信源·好思考 · → daily
value: direction=初步非正式讨论
<a id="atom-6a2a564dbfb87f4a"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 卖·MS Tom Wigg · App Store Rank
Kalshi: Trade the Cup is ranked #3 in Top Downloaded Free Apps.
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=3 · date=2026-06-17
<a id="atom-7f5b46b094a53da4"></a>🟦 2026-06-30 X·@Techmeme · World Cup knockouts sponsorship agreement · 赞助合作
Sources: Kalshi agreed to pay $20M to sponsor the World Cup knockouts, after initially balking at FIFA's $150M asking price, alongside ADI Predictstreet (Bloomberg)
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$20M
<a id="atom-70197932c29f168c"></a>🟦 2026-06-30 X·@Techmeme · FIFA asking price for World Cup knockouts sponsorship · 赞助合作
Sources: Kalshi agreed to pay $20M to sponsor the World Cup knockouts, after initially balking at FIFA's $150M asking price, alongside ADI Predictstreet (Bloomberg)
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$150M
<a id="atom-75e13974fd9ed204"></a>🟦 2026-06-25 X·@theinformation · 年度化营收 · 营收
Kalshi has topped $2 billion in annualized revenue
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$2 billion · date=2026-06-25
<a id="atom-6d540109b36f9a1a"></a>🟦 2026-06-25 X·@theinformation · 估值 · 估值
its $22 billion valuation
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$22 billion
<a id="atom-761c2eaa2dcfd9e7"></a>🟦 2026-06-22 X·@theinformation · annualized revenue · 营收
Kalshi passes $2B in annualized revenue
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$2B · date=annualized
<a id="atom-72f3dede4122bc16"></a>🟦 2026-06-18 X·@Techmeme · institutional trading volume growth · 仓位情绪
Kalshi says institutional trading volume on its platform has grown 800% since November 2025
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=800% · direction=increase · date=since November 2025
<a id="atom-af539ddb896577b4"></a>🟦 2026-06-18 X·@AIStockSavvy · 年化营收 · 营收
Kalshi Passes $2 Billion in Annualized Revenue
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$2 Billion · date=2026-06-18
<a id="atom-379a09209a53c88a"></a>🟦 2026-05-07 X·@Techmeme · 融资额 · 融资
Kalshi raised $1B led by Coatue at a $22B valuation
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$1B
<a id="atom-f7902167aa6580ca"></a>🟦 2026-05-07 X·@Techmeme · 估值 · 融资
Kalshi raised $1B led by Coatue at a $22B valuation
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$22B
<a id="atom-9289bdbcbddaa12b"></a>🟦 2026-05-07 X·@Techmeme · 年度化交易量 · 营收
Kalshi hits $178B in annualized trading volume
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$178B
<a id="atom-a250284b620f213f"></a>🟦 2026-05-07 X·@mansourtarek_ · raised $1B at $22B valuation · 融资
Kalshi raised $1B at a $22B valuation led by Coatue, with participation from Morgan Stanley, Sequoia, a16z, and others.
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$1B · date=2026-05-07
📷 原图
<a id="atom-5d8964434b5cc56f"></a>🟦 2026-05-07 X·@mansourtarek_ · represents over 90% of US prediction market volume · 市场份额
Kalshi represents over 90% of US prediction market volume and the majority of activity globally
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=90%
📷 原图
<a id="atom-681bba9f6de96a7f"></a>🟦 2026-05-07 X·@mansourtarek_ · annualized volume grew to $178B over past 6 months · 营收增长
annualized volume growing to $178B over the past 6 months
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$178B · date=2026-05-07
📷 原图
<a id="atom-45341bd01613f36b"></a>🟦 2026-05-07 X·@theinformation · 融资估值 · 融资
Kalshi raises $1B at $22B valuation
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$22B · date=2026-05-07
<a id="atom-ab2a40ead99ee97e"></a>🟦 2026-05-07 X·@theinformation · 融资金额 · 融资
Kalshi raises $1B at $22B valuation
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$1B · date=2026-05-07
<a id="atom-a1a23926d1a1a98b"></a>🟦 2026-05-07 X·@TurnerNovak · 估值 · 估值
Cursor and Kalshi are reportedly worth $50B and $22B, respectively.
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$22B
<a id="atom-06c261039183fcd6"></a>🟦 2026-06-26 X·@Techmeme · 与 Arena 合作探索 · 合作客户/用户增长
Sources: Zuckerberg urged execs to explore Polymarket and Kalshi partnerships, as the Arena prediction app targets 100M monthly active "predictors" aged 18-34
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty=100M · date=目标月活 · direction=target
<a id="atom-fe5bbd29cd47f06b"></a>🟦 2026-06-24 X·@Techmeme · 融资估值目标 · 融资
Sources: Kalshi is in talks to raise a funding round at a ~$40B valuation that may close as soon as Q3
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=~$40B · date=Q3
<a id="atom-36ab6ab52bf1d036"></a>🟦 2026-06-24 X·@Techmeme · 前轮融资估值 · 融资
Kalshi raised $1B at a $22B valuation in May
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$22B · date=May 2026
<a id="atom-48398925bfbf7cd4"></a>🟦 2026-06-22 X·@theinformation · courting investment banks and institutional traders · 合作客户/仓位情绪
Kalshi is courting investment banks and institutional traders as it looks to turn a retail-driven trading surge into a bigger Wall Street business.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
<a id="atom-e3cb4cd3eb74042b"></a>🟦 2026-06-18 X·@AIStockSavvy · IPO 谈判进展 · IPO
Kalshi Is in Early IPO Talks - The Information
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: date=2026-06-18
<a id="atom-9baeef408006a772"></a>🟦 2026-06-09 X·@Techmeme · 计划要求用户披露工作信息 · 监管政策/管理层表态
Kalshi plans to require users seeking to make bets in some markets linked to material nonpublic information to submit an online form disclosing where they work
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: direction=未指定
<a id="atom-ff81a532e03e6ca2"></a>🟦 2026-06-04 X·@Techmeme · 被Robinhood部分替代作为预测市场提供商 · 竞争格局/合作客户
shifting away from Kalshi as it seeks to diversify its prediction markets providers
tags: 好信源 · → daily

🟥 多头 takes (bullish) (3)

<a id="atom-76af73fb301732bd"></a>🟥 2026-06-23 X·@the_dude98 · VC marketing budget expenditure · 仓位情绪_
@thedude98: When you say core product you really mean data labeling. Spinning up a real prediction market would require more of financial work than technical but it seems like that'll be the end goal once poly market and Kalshi blow their VC marketing budgets
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: direction=blow
<a id="atom-8d83076207246690"></a>🟥 2026-06-13 X·@Kalshi · 转述亿万富翁投资者言论 · AI影响/岗位变化
JUST IN: Billionaire investor says AI will eliminate grunt work for junior employees
tags: 好观点 · → daily
<a id="atom-544d9157cc9ee59a"></a>🟥 2026-05-12 X·@coatuemgmt [老旧] · 投资主题 · 融资
A measured view on crypto, stablecoins, and prediction markets — and our investment thesis in @Kalshi.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
📷 原图

🟥 空头 takes (bearish) (1)

<a id="atom-e25611f89170fb13"></a>🟥 2026-05-28 X·@theinformation · 面临 SEC 监管斗争 · 监管政策
The boom is also pushing Polymarket and Kalshi closer to a regulatory fight with the SEC over whether some contracts look too much like securities.
tags: 好观点 · → daily

🟦 新闻流 (squawk · 40)

展开新闻流 (FirstSquawk / financialjuice / wallstengine / DeItaone — 快讯, 非原创 take)

<a id="atom-8166b166548df8f1"></a>🟦 2026-06-25 X·@DeItaone ⭐ · Strait of Hormuz normalisation probability before Sep 1, 2026 · 地缘政治
Kalshi traders now see a 68% chance by Sept. 1
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=68% · date=Sep 1, 2026
[图: Kalshi 预测市场关于霍尔木兹海峡航运交通恢复正常时间的概率走势图 — Before Sep 1, 2026 概率: 68%; Before Aug 1, 2026 概率: 66%; Before Jul 15, 2026 概率: 46%; 交易量: $26,146,248]
📷 原图
<a id="atom-09ea2138c06cd8df"></a>🟦 2026-06-25 X·@DeItaone ⭐ · Strait of Hormuz normalisation probability before Aug 1, 2026 · 地缘政治
a 66% chance by Aug. 1
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=66% · date=Aug 1, 2026
[图: Kalshi 预测市场关于霍尔木兹海峡航运交通恢复正常时间的概率走势图 — Before Sep 1, 2026 概率: 68%; Before Aug 1, 2026 概率: 66%; Before Jul 15, 2026 概率: 46%; 交易量: $26,146,248]
📷 原图
<a id="atom-a2a76fd0386e0f91"></a>🟦 2026-06-25 X·@DeItaone ⭐ · Strait of Hormuz normalisation probability before Jul 15, 2026 · 地缘政治
a 46% chance by July 15
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=46% · date=Jul 15, 2026
[图: Kalshi 预测市场关于霍尔木兹海峡航运交通恢复正常时间的概率走势图 — Before Sep 1, 2026 概率: 68%; Before Aug 1, 2026 概率: 66%; Before Jul 15, 2026 概率: 46%; 交易量: $26,146,248]
📷 原图
<a id="atom-aab52930101754b0"></a>🟦 2026-06-25 X·@DeItaone · Strait of Hormuz shipping returns to normal before Aug. 1 probability · 价格动态
Kalshi traders now see a 98% chance Strait of Hormuz shipping returns to normal before Aug. 1
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=98% · date=before Aug. 1, 2026
[图: Kalshi预测市场关于霍尔木兹海峡航运恢复正常时间的概率走势图 — Before Aug 1, 2026概率: 98%; Before Sep 1, 2026概率: 71%; Before Jul 15, 2026概率: 46%; 总交易额(vol): $26,218,017]
📷 原图
<a id="atom-1fa6fdd543f51b2f"></a>🟦 2026-06-24 X·@DeItaone 🔁2源 🔊x2 · 融资估值 · 融资
KALSHI IN TALKS TO RAISE FUNDS AT $40BN VALUATION: FT
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$40bn · direction=raised
<a id="atom-80b8859cb09c508e"></a>🟦 2026-06-18 X·@DeItaone · 在加拿大推出预测市场 · 产品发布/监管政策
KALSHI BRINGS PREDICTION MARKETS TO CANADA
tags: 好信源 · → daily
📷 原图
<a id="atom-5c96ca84075dd64c"></a>🟦 2026-06-15 X·@DeItaone · 构建AI agent“Harrison”用于预测市场合约压力测试 · 产品发布/技术路线
Kalshi has built an internal AI agent, “Harrison,” to help design, review, and stress-test prediction market contracts.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
<a id="atom-e1bfa7e508748237"></a>🟦 2026-06-11 X·@DeItaone · 推出永续合约交易 · 产品发布
KALSHI LAUNCHES PERPETUAL TRADING
tags: 好信源 · → daily
[图: Kalshi平台上BTC永续合约的价格走势图 — BTC PERP当前价格: $62,865; 今日涨幅: +$876 (1.4%); 24小时交易量: $455,704,299; 未平仓合约(open int.): $2,234,976]
📷 原图
<a id="atom-80314edb7266fc62"></a>🟦 2026-06-11 X·@DeItaone · 永续合约交易已启动 · 产品发布
Kalshi has launched perpetual trading contracts, now live on its platform
tags: 好信源 · → daily
[图: Kalshi平台上BTC永续合约的价格走势图 — BTC PERP当前价格: $62,865; 今日涨幅: +$876 (1.4%); 24小时交易量: $455,704,299; 未平仓合约(open int.): $2,234,976]
📷 原图
<a id="atom-56364a9619d1ca27"></a>🟦 2026-06-11 X·@DeItaone · BTC永续合约当前价格 · 价格动态
BTC PERP当前价格: $62,865
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$62,865
[图: Kalshi平台上BTC永续合约的价格走势图 — BTC PERP当前价格: $62,865; 今日涨幅: +$876 (1.4%); 24小时交易量: $455,704,299; 未平仓合约(open int.): $2,234,976]
📷 原图
<a id="atom-d47670f65c236c52"></a>🟦 2026-06-11 X·@DeItaone · BTC永续合约24小时交易量 · 订单需求
24小时交易量: $455,704,299
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$455,704,299
[图: Kalshi平台上BTC永续合约的价格走势图 — BTC PERP当前价格: $62,865; 今日涨幅: +$876 (1.4%); 24小时交易量: $455,704,299; 未平仓合约(open int.): $2,234,976]
📷 原图
<a id="atom-99d5add153355fce"></a>🟦 2026-06-11 X·@DeItaone · BTC永续合约未平仓合约 · 仓位情绪
未平仓合约(open int.): $2,234,976
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$2,234,976
[图: Kalshi平台上BTC永续合约的价格走势图 — BTC PERP当前价格: $62,865; 今日涨幅: +$876 (1.4%); 24小时交易量: $455,704,299; 未平仓合约(open int.): $2,234,976]
📷 原图
<a id="atom-dccc8e3615f7f6f4"></a>🟦 2026-06-09 X·@DeItaone · crypto perpetual futures trading volume · 订单需求
KALSHI PERPS TOP $1B VOLUME IN ONE WEEK
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$1B · date=one week of launch
📷 原图
<a id="atom-1b51d723a4d6becc"></a>🟦 2026-06-09 X·@FirstSquawk · 新措施包括高风险市场风险评分 · 监管政策
KALSHI ROLLS OUT NEW MEASURES INCLUDING RISK SCORING, EMPLOYMENT VERIFICATION FOR HIGH-RISK MARKETS, AND ENHANCED WHISTLEBLOWER REPORTING TOOLS.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
<a id="atom-38d95f5cc2e4beb2"></a>🟥 2026-06-08 X·@wallstengine · 认为官方联盟数据有助于更快交易结算和更好用户体验 · 合作客户
Kalshi says official league data should help support faster trade settlement and a better user experience.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
[图: Sportradar Group AG (SRAD) 的股票价格走势及盘前交易数据图表 — 收盘价: $13.90; 收盘跌幅: -2.32%; 盘前价: $14.70; 盘前涨幅: +5.76%]
📷 原图
<a id="atom-b327880cc258ddb4"></a>🟦 2026-06-05 X·@DeItaone ⭐ · 市场押注2027年7月前加息概率 · 宏观利率
Kalshi traders also see a 64% chance of a Fed hike before July 2027, with probabilities trending higher.
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=64% · date=2027-07
📷 原图
<a id="atom-852dd13ce4685190"></a>🟦 2026-06-03 X·@DeItaone · 向司法部举报Santos可疑交易 · 监管政策
Kalshi reported former Rep. George Santos to the U.S. Department of Justice over suspicious trading activity
tags: 好信源 · → daily
<a id="atom-7baf9162354a89aa"></a>🟦 2026-06-03 X·@DeItaone · BTC价格预测年底 · 价格动态
traders on Kalshi now price BTC down to ~$49K this year
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=~49K · date=2026年底
📷 原图
<a id="atom-c1b062183910005a"></a>🟦 2026-06-02 X·@DeItaone · 美伊和平协议概率 · 地缘政治
Market expectations for a U.S.-Iran deal by end-June have plunged from over 75% to just 27%
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=27% · date=2026-06-30
📷 原图
<a id="atom-c7da8d23dd51845d"></a>🟦 2026-06-02 X·@DeItaone · 正常航运概率 · 地缘政治
Kalshi traders give just 52% probability of normal shipping traffic before October 2026
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=52% · date=2026-10-01
📷 原图
<a id="atom-4739b1cf89fed5cf"></a>🟦 2026-06-02 X·@DeItaone · 推出比特币永续期货 · 产品发布/监管政策
Kalshi became the first U.S. venue to offer Bitcoin perpetual futures—leveraged contracts with no expiration date.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: date=2026-06-02
<a id="atom-cf1af5d62cdc12e4"></a>🟦 2026-06-02 X·@DeItaone · 估值 · 估值
Valued at $22 billion
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$22 billion
<a id="atom-914617746077b759"></a>🟦 2026-06-02 X·@DeItaone · 计划上市额外加密货币永续合约 · 产品发布
has already filed to list additional crypto perpetuals
tags: 好思考 · → daily
<a id="atom-58259dc16549e4a4"></a>🟦 2026-06-02 X·@FirstSquawk · 涉内幕交易调查 · 监管调查
DOJ INVESTIGATING FORMER U.S. CONGRESSMAN GEORGE SANTOS OVER ALLEGED INSIDER TRADING ON KALSHI: NPR
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty= · date=
<a id="atom-317080e5f9a3f1ff"></a>🟦 2026-05-29 X·@DeItaone · launched perpetual futures contracts · 产品发布
Kalshi today announced the launch of perpetual futures contracts, becoming the first company in U.S. history to offer regulated perpetuals.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
<a id="atom-83b7f8973d6b24af"></a>🟦 2026-05-26 X·@DeItaone ⭐ · 2027年前美联储加息概率 · 宏观利率
Kalshi prices a 39% chance of a Fed hike before 2027
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=39% · date=2027年前
[图: Kalshi 预测 2027 年前美联储加息概率的历史走势图表 — 39% (2027年前美联储加息概率); $1,755,763 (交易量); 35天 (距离开始时间)]
📷 原图
<a id="atom-568c4d266fd1977d"></a>🟦 2026-05-19 X·@DeItaone · 通胀预测 · 价格动态
Kalshi forecasting U.S. inflation could reach 5.1% this year
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=5.1%
📷 原图
<a id="atom-c0ad633c608782b7"></a>🟦 2026-05-19 X·@DeItaone · 通胀预测 · 价格动态
Kalshi forecasting U.S. inflation could reach 5.1% this year
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=5.1% · date=2026
<a id="atom-06fe752fdf42f11a"></a>🟦 2026-05-16 X·@FirstSquawk · 被监管调查 · 监管政策
U.S. market regulators are seeking information from Kalshi and Polymarket over wagers tied to political events and military operations-WSJ
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty= · date=
<a id="atom-9786e89b81ce39ee"></a>🟦 2026-05-15 X·@DeItaone ⭐ · 显示Fed加息概率 · 宏观利率
with a 34% probability of a hike before 2027
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=34% · date=before 2027
[图: Kalshi预测市场上关于2027年前美联储下一次加息概率的历史走势图 — 2027年前加息概率: 34%; 交易量: $1,459,513; 开始倒计时: 46天]
📷 原图
<a id="atom-b179fdec55b82f78"></a>🟦 2026-05-14 X·@DeItaone ⭐ · 表示机构需求激增 · 订单需求
Kalshi said institutional demand has surged over the past six months
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: date=过去六个月
<a id="atom-20009ce24bb4ee70"></a>🟦 2026-05-08 X·@DeItaone · 与麦迪逊广场花园宣布多年合作伙伴关系 · 合作客户
KALSHI AND MADISON SQUARE GARDEN ANNOUNCE MULTI-YEAR PARTNERSHIP, NAMING KALSHI AN OFFICIAL PREDICTION MARKET PARTNER OF THE GARDEN
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=multi-year · date=2026-05-08
<a id="atom-42c07ae1b65bc8dd"></a>🟦 2026-05-07 X·@DeItaone ⭐ · 融资规模 · 融资
Kalshi raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$1B · date=2026-05-07
<a id="atom-e03977242414b865"></a>🟦 2026-05-07 X·@DeItaone ⭐ · 估值 · 估值
Kalshi raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$22B · date=2026-05-07
<a id="atom-23c1e44f4c26e998"></a>🟦 2026-05-07 X·@DeItaone ⭐ · 美国预测市场份额 · 市场份额
Kalshi claims over 90% of U.S. prediction market volume
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=90%+
<a id="atom-15ec2d725deaea81"></a>🟦 2026-05-07 X·@DeItaone ⭐ · 年化交易额 · 订单需求
annualized trading has reached $178 billion in the past six months
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$178B · date=过去6个月
<a id="atom-9cbf30c96b85ec07"></a>🟦 2026-05-04 X·@DeItaone [老化中] · 2027年前美联储降息概率 · 宏观利率/仓位情绪
Kalshi odds of a cut before 2027 have fallen to ~45%
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=45% · date=当前
[图: Kalshi预测市场关于2027年前美联储是否降息的概率走势图表 — 44.8% (当前预测降息概率); -51.2 (概率变动值); $120,261 (交易量)]
📷 原图
<a id="atom-e2eb5aca2beb3b8f"></a>🟥 2026-05-04 X·@DeItaone [老化中] · 最低交易年龄主张 · 监管政策
Kalshi is still opposing calls to raise the minimum trading age to 21, arguing prediction markets are equivalent to stock trading and should remain 18+.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
[图: 美国11-17岁男孩在过去一年中参与过赌博的比例调查数据图表 — 16岁: 51%; 17岁: 49%; 15岁: 37%; 11岁: 32%; 12岁: 30%]
📷 原图
<a id="atom-dcc05990e991badd"></a>🟦 2026-05-04 X·@DeItaone · Hormuz 航运正常化预测 · 地缘政治/价格动态
57% chance normal traffic returns by September 1
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=57% · date=2026-09-01
[图: Kalshi预测交易员对霍尔木兹海峡航运恢复正常时间线的预测概率走势图 — Before Jul 1 2026; Before Aug 1 2026; Before Sep 1 2026]
📷 原图
<a id="atom-608a24ad64f3fe49"></a>🟦 2026-04-29 X·@DeItaone ⭐ · 2027年前美联储降息概率 · 宏观利率
Kalshi pricing now shows only a ~50% chance of any Fed rate cut before 2027
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=~50% · date=2027-01-01
[图: Kalshi 预测美联储在2027年前是否降息的概率走势图 — 当前降息概率: 50%; 概率下降值: -46; 距离开始天数: 246天]
📷 原图

⏱ 时间轴 (近 20)

🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · 估值 · → daily
🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · 用户基数 · → daily
🟦 2026-06-30 · fact · World Cup knockouts sponsorship agreement · → daily
🟦 2026-06-30 · fact · FIFA asking price for World Cup knockouts sponsorship · → daily
🟦 2026-06-26 · fact · valuation increased · → daily
🟦 2026-06-26 · fact · 与 Arena 合作探索 · → daily
🟦 2026-06-25 · fact · 年度化营收 · → daily
🟦 2026-06-25 · fact · 估值 · → daily
🟦 2026-06-25 · fact · Strait of Hormuz normalisation probability before Sep 1, 202 · → daily
🟦 2026-06-25 · fact · Strait of Hormuz normalisation probability before Aug 1, 202 · → daily
🟦 2026-06-25 · fact · Strait of Hormuz normalisation probability before Jul 15, 20 · → daily
🟦 2026-06-25 · fact · Strait of Hormuz shipping returns to normal before Aug. 1 pr · → daily
🟦 2026-06-24 · fact · 融资估值 · → daily
🟦 2026-06-24 · fact · 融资估值目标 · → daily
🟦 2026-06-24 · fact · 前轮融资估值 · → daily
🟦 2026-06-23 · fact · 体育博彩占比 · → daily
🟥 2026-06-23 · narrative · VC marketing budget expenditure · → daily
🟦 2026-06-22 · fact · courting investment banks and institutional traders · → daily
🟦 2026-06-22 · fact · 年化营收突破 · → daily
🟦 2026-06-22 · fact · annualized revenue · → daily

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