Huawei

471 atoms · 跨 66 天 · 首见 2026-04-15 · 最近 2026-07-03

三色: 🟦 fact 289 · 🟥 take 182 · stance ▲141/▼54/◆136

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状态只算低频策展源 (群/卖方); X firehose 仅作背景音量

来源: X 470 · News 1

时态: fresh:431 · aging:31 · stale:5 · expired:4

标签: 好数字:161 · 好信源:156 · 好观点:154 · 好思考:56 · 好问题:6

🟨 AI 综合 · junior analyst 概览

🧭 拥挤度 (一人一票): ▲ 34 位作者 (KOL34) vs ▼ 25 位作者 (KOL25)

⚖️ 多头 34/34 来自KOL

📄 广泛报道的事实 · 12 个

💢 核心分歧 (3 轴)

1. 国产AI芯片替代CUDA 能力到了吗

*topic: 技术路线/竞争格局/供给产能/合作客户 · 75 bull vs 24 bear*

🟢 bullish 侧:

• <a id="atom-b151aa1fbdf84bb2"></a>2026-04-17 X·@teortaxesTex [老化中] · 国产堆栈达到可用阈值 · 供给产能/技术路线 +同日3条
  They're now near the threshold where the domestic stack is just usable.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-bd49a3f6b1ab2afa"></a>2026-04-19 X·@GlennLuk [老化中] · 华为及校友可能未多元化进入芯片制造、电动汽车、机器人等新领域 · 技术路线/多元化
  They would have stayed at Huawei and Huawei (and Huawei alumni) may not have diversified into so many new sectors from chip manufacturing to EVs to robotics
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-2dcdf1266861e182"></a>2026-05-08 X·@GlennLuk [老化中] · optical prowess · 技术路线
  Huawei’s prowess in optical
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-a265a1105117dbf6"></a>2026-05-25 X·@GlennLuk · proposed Tau Scaling Law approach · 技术路线
  Huawei — on cue with proposed "Tau Scaling Law" approach that integrates design improvements at multiple levels: the transistor, circuit, chip design and system.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-b3e7ab926d24b297"></a>2026-05-24 X·@Sino_Market · Huawei semiconductor chief He Tingbo said approach reduces signal delay and improves transistor density · 技术路线 +同日2条
  Huawei semiconductor chief He Tingbo said the approach could reduce signal delay and improve transistor density to sustain gains in computing power.
  tags: 好信源·好思考 · → daily
  📷 原图

🔴 bearish 侧:

• <a id="atom-bd120894a01960c8"></a>2026-04-16 X·@8teAPi [老化中] · 模型与芯片协同设计，Huawei 芯片无法处理当前工作负载 · 技术路线 +同日1条
  The models are essentially co-designed with the chip. Huawei’s chips can’t handle the workloads yet
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-c2447338aeb504dd"></a>2026-04-27 X·@teortaxesTex [老化中] · 测试1.6T模型使用16张卡 · 技术路线/供给产能 +同日1条
  The thing that actually looks bad to me is them testing a 1.6T model on 16 cards when the deployment unit for V3-671B was 160 H800s
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=16 cards · date=2026-04-27
• <a id="atom-4d146406e586cd35"></a>2026-05-24 X·@pstAsiatech · 声称找到缩短与TSMC差距的新路径 · 技术路线
  Huawei says it has come up with a new pathway to shorten its gap with industry leader TSMC
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-62f3d24cfd0679f2"></a>2026-05-25 X·@hackradios · 发明逻辑优化技术 · 技术路线
  No dude they invented a new logic optimization technique that nobody else can use! They're going to take the lead while we keep fiddling with our EUV gadgets!!!
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  value: direction=new logic optimization technique that nobody else can use
• <a id="atom-6186cb7aa4172ecd"></a>2026-05-25 X·@jukan05 · thermal and cost explanation · 技术路线
  Huawei has not clearly explained how it intends to handle thermals and cost
  tags: 好思考 · → daily

2. 出口管制反而加速华为芯片突破

*topic: 竞争格局/地缘政治 · 21 bull vs 20 bear*

🟢 bullish 侧:

• <a id="atom-98a543011be58f6f"></a>2026-04-16 X·@8teAPi · 出口禁令使华为立即增长 · 竞争格局 +同日1条
  The export ban will allow Huawei the growth now so that there will be no lag time
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-ca2796642cebc969"></a>2026-04-17 X·@bookwormengr [老化中] · 7nm 制程局限下的追赶能力 · 竞争格局
  Chinese companies like Huawei are trying to catch up, and they will do well even if they are forever stuck at 7nm.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-2e81b37b30dfecfb"></a>2026-04-19 X·@GlennLuk [老化中] · 精英STEM人才分散至中国科技生态系统 · 人才流动/竞争格局
  Another unintended consequence of the attempt to decapitate Huawei ~8 years ago was dispersion of its concentrated, elite STEM human capital into the broader Chinese tech ecosystem.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-e0fcdf30cf2dc550"></a>2026-05-07 X·@kyleichan [老化中] · 受益于早期多元化策略 · 竞争格局/技术路线
  Huawei itself benefited from this diversified approach in the early 1990s
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: date=1990s
  [图: 2025年和2026年预测的中国AI加速器市场份额饼图 — 2025E Nvidia 份额: 40% (10,198百万美元); 2025E Huawei 份额: 40% (10,268百万美元); 2026E Huawei 份额: 50% (12,070百万美元); 2026E AMD 份额: 12% (3,000百万美元); 2026E Nvid
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-f12fcd830e4927a8"></a>2026-05-22 X·@leemakiyama · 受益于美国制裁 · 地缘政治 +同日1条
  US sanctions on chips saved Huawei
  tags: 好观点 · → daily

🔴 bearish 侧:

• <a id="atom-02f6ca0b2174f7e3"></a>2026-04-16 X·@8teAPi · 在获得市场准入条件下将追赶 NVDA · 竞争格局
  given market access Huawei will catch up
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-e0575571e554dc11"></a>2026-04-17 X·@teortaxesTex [老化中] · 国产堆栈与CUDA仍存差距 · 竞争格局/技术路线 +同日1条
  It's still garbage compared to Nvidia/CUDA, but not unusable garbage; just finicky and Pareto-inferior.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-7aac1581086f0b12"></a>2026-04-19 X·@teortaxesTex [老化中] · 软件修复能力 · 软件能力/竞争格局
  any half-baked company (or just Huawei) can fix Huawei's software
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-51690e397043e165"></a>2026-05-03 X·@RobertDMellish [老化中] · 计算主权追求 · 地缘政治
  The Chinese Communist Party and firms like Huawei will pursue compute sovereignty regardless of U.S. trade posture.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-6080730c17caf21f"></a>2026-05-03 X·@AquaVisX [老化中] · 替代NVDA努力 · 竞争格局
  I do not think this will deter China from subsidizing Huawei to attempt to 'replace' Nvidia.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily

3. 华为AI芯片营收爆发可持续吗

*topic: 订单需求/出货量 · 11 bull vs 1 bear*

🟢 bullish 侧:

• <a id="atom-3494e1c4cc055f56"></a>2026-04-30 X·@FirstSquawk ⭐ · AI芯片年营收预期 · 营收预测/订单需求
  HUAWEI'S AI CHIP REVENUE OF AROUND $12 BILLION THIS YEAR
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=~$12 billion · date=this year
• <a id="atom-dccea728d4494110"></a>2026-04-30 X·@FT · AI芯片销售激增 · 订单需求/竞争格局
  Huawei’s AI chip sales surge as Nvidia stalls in China
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=up
• <a id="atom-3950925cc43abb38"></a>2026-04-30 X·@AIStockSavvy · AI Chip Sales Surge · 订单需求/芯片销量
  Huawei’s AI Chip Sales Surge
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=up · date=2026-04-30
• <a id="atom-bbe83fba101b8bcc"></a>2026-05-01 X·@wallstengine · 中国科技公司大量订购Ascend 950PR · 订单需求
  as China tech firms place large orders for its Ascend 950PR
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=increased
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-8ba6eb0598d9ee4b"></a>2026-05-01 X·@GlennLuk [老化中] · 芯片订单增速 · 订单需求
  China has proven in other industries that once it achieves industry verticalization and domestic circulation (both end demand and supply developed in lockstep), it can scale an industry “dizzyingly” fast. We are now seeing that with AI chips with Huawei growing its chip orders ~60% YoY.
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=growing · qty=~60% YoY

🔴 bearish 侧:

• <a id="atom-7472b4acef8767cd"></a>2026-06-18 X·@teortaxesTex · booked for next few years · 订单需求
  they'll be booked for the next few years
  tags: 好观点 · → daily

📊 程序化变化 (近 7 天)

• 已过期 forecast: 4 条

🟦 客观事实 (facts) (30)

• <a id="atom-6759c2ba41603fcb"></a>🟦 2026-06-06 X·@jukan05 ⭐ · 与超过30家车企和供应商合作 · 合作客户
  More than 30 automakers and component suppliers are currently collaborating with Huawei in areas including autonomous driving, connected cars, overseas expansion, and smart manufacturing.
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=30+
• <a id="atom-c123c3377ab2d7e8"></a>🟦 2026-05-22 X·@TensorSlay ⭐ · 光纤连接GPU数量 · 技术路线
  Huawei has already deployed 3,168 optical fibers connecting 384 GPUs, bypassing NVLink and InfiniBand entirely
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=3,168 optical fibers connecting 384 GPUs
• <a id="atom-b4b325b5f26b41bb"></a>🟦 2026-05-01 X·@zerohedge ⭐ · AI芯片市场份额预测 · 市场份额
  Huawei is set to capture the largest share of China’s AI chip market this year, with sales jumping by at least 60 per cent
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=最大份额 · date=2026年
• <a id="atom-ce4edd3f4f181002"></a>🟦 2026-04-24 X·@Techmeme ⭐ · 五年自动驾驶计算支出计划 · 资本开支/技术路线
  Huawei plans to spend up to $11.7B over five years to boost compute for training and testing autonomous cars, with ~$2.64B for autonomous driving R&D in 2026
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=$11.7B · date=五年
• <a id="atom-62e6e2bbe5c3014c"></a>🟦 2026-06-30 X·@bookwormengr · Ascend 910 产量估计 · 出货量/供给产能
  How many Ascend 910s Huawei can manufacture with 'stolen' dies? Answer: 1.6 million
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=1.6 million
• <a id="atom-d05eb32603f4d023"></a>🟦 2026-05-24 X·@AndrewCurran_ · 高性能芯片设计预期 · 技术路线/产品发布
  Huawei says it has made a breakthrough and expects to design high-end chips with transistor density equivalent to 1.4 nm processes by 2031.
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=transistor density equivalent to 1.4 nm processes · date=2031
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-dccea728d4494110"></a>🟦 2026-04-30 X·@FT · AI芯片销售激增 · 订单需求/竞争格局
  Huawei’s AI chip sales surge as Nvidia stalls in China
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=up
• <a id="atom-3950925cc43abb38"></a>🟦 2026-04-30 X·@AIStockSavvy · AI Chip Sales Surge · 订单需求/芯片销量
  Huawei’s AI Chip Sales Surge
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=up · date=2026-04-30
• <a id="atom-cc7568129e32d262"></a>🟦 2026-04-20 X·@Techmeme · Pura X Max launch date · 产品发布
  Huawei launches the Pura X Max, a passport-style foldable with a 5.4-inch cover display and a 7.7-inch internal display, in China, starting at ~$1,613
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-88289e8740e7de1f"></a>🟦 2026-04-20 X·@Techmeme · Pura X Max cover display size · 产品发布
  Huawei launches the Pura X Max, a passport-style foldable with a 5.4-inch cover display
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=5.4-inch · date=launch
• <a id="atom-290c81f29263ff3c"></a>🟦 2026-04-20 X·@Techmeme · Pura X Max internal display size · 产品发布
  Huawei launches the Pura X Max, a passport-style foldable with a 5.4-inch cover display and a 7.7-inch internal display
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=7.7-inch · date=launch
• <a id="atom-9b1ff2533e41793a"></a>🟦 2026-04-20 X·@Techmeme · Pura X Max starting price · 产品发布
  Huawei launches the Pura X Max, a passport-style foldable with a 5.4-inch cover display and a 7.7-inch internal display, in China, starting at ~$1,613
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=~$1,613 · date=launch
• <a id="atom-39aefb0d4f7e9e92"></a>🟦 2026-05-31 X·@tphuang · 2026Q1 全球 ESS 出货量排名 · 出货量/竞争格局
  Global ESS shipment for 2026Q1 BYD, Sungrow, Huawei, Tesla & CRRC are the top 5.
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: date=2026Q1
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-a538f131e2e463d1"></a>🟦 2026-05-26 X·@fi56622380 · 芯片密度 · 技术路线
  The 2026 first-generation equivalent density jumps from 155 MTr/mm² in 2025 to 238 MTr/mm² in 2026.
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=155→238 MTr/mm² · date=2025→2026
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-71213c0aac449979"></a>🟦 2026-05-26 X·@fi56622380 · 时钟频率提升 · 技术路线
  Clock frequency also improves by 12.7%
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=12.7% · date=2025→2026
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-d9037ef52fe708b8"></a>🟦 2026-05-26 X·@fi56622380 · 能效提升 · 技术路线
  power efficiency improves by 41%
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=41% · date=2025→2026
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-b1fb1e919ea222d5"></a>🟦 2026-05-26 X·@fi56622380 · 时钟深度降低 · 技术路线
  clock depth -42%
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=-42%
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-777de8b2f168f8fe"></a>🟦 2026-05-26 X·@fi56622380 · 时钟线减少 · 技术路线
  clock wire -28%
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=-28%
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-23a910c8cab5b365"></a>🟦 2026-05-26 X·@fi56622380 · 时钟偏差改善 · 技术路线
  clock skew -25%
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=-25%
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-f2fd1d43edac7dad"></a>🟦 2026-05-26 X·@fi56622380 · SRAM延迟降低 · 技术路线
  SRAM latency reduced by 30%
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=30%
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-1eb8467505e155e6"></a>🟦 2026-05-26 X·@fi56622380 [已过期] · 芯片密度展望 · 技术路线
  approaching full-chip folding by 2030 (density 155→292).
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=155→292 MTr/mm² · date=2025→2030
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-95b95b4698996953"></a>🟦 2026-05-25 X·@InoueFumihiro · τ-Scaling Lawに基づき2031年までに先端チップの性能向上を予想 · 技术路线/技术路线
  By 2031, HUAWEI's high-end chips based on this law are expected to featu
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: date=2031
• <a id="atom-775e9dbadec6524b"></a>🟦 2026-05-25 X·@Bullsh1t_buster · 2030 roadmap density · 技术路线/供给产能
  Huawei roadmap actually has the same density in 2030 as of now. It’s all around 146-155MTr/mm2 on a single wafer.
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: date=2030 · qty=146-155MTr/mm2
• <a id="atom-0b470435a569e6e8"></a>🟦 2026-05-25 X·@DanielNenni · 2031芯片密度目标 · 技术路线
  Huawei expects to design chips by 2031 with density equivalent to 1.4 nm
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=1.4 nm equivalent · date=2031
• <a id="atom-8fa12e4b549384bc"></a>🟦 2026-05-25 X·@hsu_steve · 2031年晶体管密度路线图 · 技术路线/路线图
  Roadmap projects “effective scaling” through increasingly aggressive logic compaction, shorter interconnects, etc. 2031: 400+ million transistors per mm² and 5 GHz operation
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=400+ million per mm² · date=2031
• <a id="atom-c79e1ed8ef3de9c4"></a>🟦 2026-05-24 X·@poezhao0605 · mass-produced 381 chips under Tao Law in 6 years · 出货量
  The company says 381 chips have been designed and mass-produced under this principle over the past six years.
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=381
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-4fc69ce458025fd2"></a>🟦 2026-05-24 X·@rtodi · high-end chip design target · 技术路线/产品发布
  Huawei aims to design high-end chips by 2031 with transistor density equivalent to 1.4 nm processes
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=1.4 nm · date=2031
• <a id="atom-c76c49641da34974"></a>🟦 2026-05-24 X·@yicaichina · designed and mass-produced 381 chips based on Tau law · 出货量/产品发布
  said it has designed and mass-produced 381 chips based on the law over the past six years
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=381 · date=past six years
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-e29efc7eef3f105d"></a>🟦 2026-05-24 X·@Techmeme ⭐ · 芯片设计晶体管密度目标 · 技术路线/产品发布
  At an IEEE conference, Huawei proposed a new chip scaling law and said it aims to design chips with transistor density equivalent to 1.4nm by 2031
  tags: 好思考·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=1.4nm · date=2031
• <a id="atom-830e28dceba5dccb"></a>🟦 2026-05-24 X·@GONOGO_Korea · 高端芯片制程目标 · 技术路线/产品发布
  By 2031, HUAWEI's high-end chips based on this law are expected to featu...
  tags: 好数字·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=based on Tau Scaling Law · date=2031

🟥 多头 takes (bullish) (30)

• <a id="atom-3f5f48c2c7af6d76"></a>🟥 2026-05-26 X·@fi56622380 ⭐ · 3D EDA 路线图覆盖率 · 技术路线
  the roadmap shows folding coverage from 53% in 2026 to almost 100% in 2030
  tags: 好数字·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=53% -> 100% · date=2026-2030
• <a id="atom-30c64a527dc7d72d"></a>🟥 2026-05-25 X·@Sino_Market · Tau Law半导体晶体管密度预测 · 技术路线
  Huawei introduced its semiconductor “Tau Law,” projecting that transistor density for advanced chips based on the framework could reach levels equivalent to a 1.4-nanometer process node by 2031.
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=1.4纳米等效节点 · date=2031
• <a id="atom-168e6bed91ba15ff"></a>🟥 2026-05-31 X·@ogawa_tter · 徐直军发表观点 · 管理层表态
  Xu Zhijun (徐直军), Huawei: Abandon Illusions, be Self-reliant and Strong, and China's Semiconductor Industry will eventually Form its Own Unique Pattern, May 29, 2026
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-7f0782a2aef4f17b"></a>🟥 2026-06-12 X·@teortaxesTex · 3D bonding pitch 1.5/1µm can solve problems · 技术路线
  _it's a lot better than Foveros in the limit I think

1.5/1µm bonding pitch can solve a lot of problems_

tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily

value: qty=1.5/1µm bonding pitch

• <a id="atom-03dd23308748bcb2"></a>🟥 2026-05-30 X·@SemiAnalysis_ [老旧] · interconnect density vs TSMC and Intel · 技术路线/竞争格局
  16-36x denser interconnect enables Huawei's LogicFolding design
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=16-36x denser
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-8ba6eb0598d9ee4b"></a>🟥 2026-05-01 X·@GlennLuk [老化中] · 芯片订单增速 · 订单需求
  China has proven in other industries that once it achieves industry verticalization and domestic circulation (both end demand and supply developed in lockstep), it can scale an industry “dizzyingly” fast. We are now seeing that with AI chips with Huawei growing its chip orders ~60% YoY.
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=growing · qty=~60% YoY
• <a id="atom-6a0f703fc7fac15d"></a>🟥 2026-07-03 X·@teortaxesTex · development trajectory assessment · 技术路线/产品发布
  By 970 generation (which I expect will be massively revised for FP4), they'll diverge far.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: direction=divergent
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-2c01748df46b33fa"></a>🟥 2026-07-02 News · 2026年出货预估 · 出货/预估
  DIGITIMES Research预估华为2026年出货维持正成长，年增4.9%
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=年增4.9%
• <a id="atom-ba07a244762fbcae"></a>🟥 2026-05-25 X·@teortaxesTex · 实现 Rubin Ultra 密度时间点 · 技术路线
  Conservatively, I assume they claim that they'll achieve the density of Rubin Ultra by 2030, ie 3 years later.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: date=2030
• <a id="atom-2a4ad07bca1b3b41"></a>🟥 2026-05-25 X·@zephyr_z9 · tau缩放依赖HB接触作为片内路由层 · 技术路线
  The success of their "tau scaling" depends on the HB contact acting as a damn good intra-circuit routing layer and not just package I/O
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-e8b7342710d39513"></a>🟥 2026-05-25 X·@zerohedge · 芯片突破 · 技术路线/地缘政治
  Huawei Touts Sanctions-Busting Chip Breakthrough
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-90447d88bc71cdc9"></a>🟥 2026-05-20 X·@jukan05 · IEE 会议是否公开讨论 · 产品发布/监管政策
  There is an IEE conference over the weekend, and the key question is whether Huawei will publicly discuss this there. If it does, market sentiment could see an immediate boost.
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  value: date=2026-05-20
• <a id="atom-8cb79d94e34d72ff"></a>🟥 2026-06-30 X·@bookwormengr · 芯片运行频率规划 · 技术路线
  allows them to run their chips at much higher frequencies (near 5GHz compared by 2030 to current 2.75GHz)
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=5GHz · date=2030
• <a id="atom-f05bc6099e06da62"></a>🟥 2026-06-17 X·@teortaxesTex · 年底新增芯片数量 · 硬件供应
  there will be hundreds of thousands of new chips sold by year end
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=hundreds of thousands
• <a id="atom-e117002ab6cb0fdc"></a>🟥 2026-05-28 X·@ZhihuFrontier · Tau Law performance target · 技术路线
  Achieves 1.4nm-class equivalent chip performance by 2031 through system-level optimization
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: date=2031 · qty=1.4nm-class equivalent chip performance
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-055482ce8cc76030"></a>🟥 2026-05-25 X·@teortaxesTex · AtlasNext SuperPOD 算力目标 · 数据中心算力
  They threaten one zettaflops by 2030, per a SuperPOD.
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=1 ZFLOPS · date=2030
  [图: 企业产品技术路线图，展示SuperPOD算力性能从2026年到2030年的演进规划 — 8 EFLOPS (Atlas950, 2026); 60 EFLOPS (Atlas960, 2027); 1 Z FLOPS (AtlasNEXT, 2030); 125x (性能提升倍数)]
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-6bd5f26649414717"></a>🟥 2026-06-27 X·@rubicon59 · 游说美国商务部 · 监管政策
  Hwawei is reportedly lobbying the US Commerce to allow unrestricted Hwawei phone sales in the US
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-d5c390099fc49389"></a>🟥 2026-06-16 X·@jukan05 · Mate 90 发布意义 · 竞争格局/产品发布
  Huawei’s decision to intentionally move the Mate 90 launch closer to the iPhone release window is being interpreted as a sign of growing confidence in its technological competitiveness
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-487e5b3ada7f7641"></a>🟥 2026-06-12 X·@teortaxesTex · pretrained a big LLM on Ascends · 技术路线/模型发布
  Huawei has finally credibly (?) pretrained a big LLM on Ascends
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=recently
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-449d62157a25c41f"></a>🟥 2026-05-26 X·@zephyr_z9 · adoption of Hybrid Bonded HBM · 技术路线
  Huawei will likely be the first company to adopt Hybrid Bonded HBM
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-fb2fe7cc826629a3"></a>🟥 2026-05-25 X·@BarrettYouTube · position on technical breakthrough · 技术路线
  it is indeed a technical breakthrough
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-8e0c1c63769bca84"></a>🟥 2026-05-25 X·@zephyr_z9 · 推进混合键合极限 · 技术路线
  Huawei is pushing hybrid bonding to the extreme
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-ed27b391cccf90fc"></a>🟥 2026-05-25 X·@jukan05 · chip-level system optimization approach · 技术路线
  Huawei is doing the same thing at the chip level.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-dc19dd732abf84c1"></a>🟥 2026-05-25 X·@jukan05 · future licensing by the West · 技术路线
  I believe the West may well find itself licensing this Huawei technology a few years down the road.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-9969aae601d1c60a"></a>🟥 2026-05-25 X·@jukan05 · advanced technology direction progress · 技术路线
  China has, in effect, shown the direction in which advanced technology needs to move. And it has done so in cutting-edge semiconductors
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-2abdf469d4f97671"></a>🟥 2026-05-25 X·@jukan05 · latest announcement significance · 产品发布
  Huawei's latest announcement carries real significance
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-fb8e56673d0cf4ea"></a>🟥 2026-05-24 X·@zephyr_z9 [老旧] · Looking forward to 3D stacked accelerator · 产品发布/技术路线
  I'm really looking forward to their 3D stacked accelerator
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=looking forward
• <a id="atom-28918cfe52d334c4"></a>🟥 2026-04-25 X·@zephyr_z9 · Ascends used for RL rollouts · 产品应用
  So they used Ascends for RL rollouts Big win for Huawei
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-85f0383f40e45fd5"></a>🟥 2026-06-30 X·@teortaxesTex · HiZQ工艺影响中国算力构建 · 订单需求
  They'll determine how the bulk of the Chinese compute in the next 2 years is built
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-540cff072683f573"></a>🟥 2026-06-30 X·@teortaxesTex · Ascend出货量预期 · 出货量
  I fail to see how anything below 'millions' makes sense
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=millions
  📷 原图

🟥 空头 takes (bearish) (30)

• <a id="atom-564814f66be52bd7"></a>🟥 2026-06-09 X·@firstadopter ⭐ · 软件性能被SemiAnalysis评估 · 技术路线/竞争格局
  Huawei's software performance in @SemiAnalysis's latest piece on DeepSeekV4 proves the China hawks were the "useful idiots" for our geopolitical adversary._
  tags: 好观点·好思考·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty= · date=
• <a id="atom-2e9e704cd3b9c48d"></a>🟥 2026-05-11 X·@RyanFedasiuk · surge toward prod capacity for minimum-viable training clusters forecast · 供给产能
  the controls will shape the arc of the frontier capabilities race, though with diminishing returns as Huawei surges toward prod capacity needed for minimum-viable training clusters in 2027-2028.
  tags: 好思考·好数字 · → daily
  value: qty= · date=2027-2028
• <a id="atom-047812c12989847a"></a>🟥 2026-05-25 X·@lithos_graphein · zero chance of commercial spec EUV by 2031 · 技术路线/出口管制
  zero chance they have that by 2031
  tags: 好信源·好观点 · → daily
  value: date=2031
• <a id="atom-31945968c83c2006"></a>🟥 2026-06-12 X·@StevenGlinert · claimed density improvement hard to believe without lithography change · 供给产能/技术路线
  Huawei has not changed the lithography to shrink anything like gate or metal pitch, so it is hard to believe the claimed density improvement.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-c2447338aeb504dd"></a>🟥 2026-04-27 X·@teortaxesTex [老化中] · 测试1.6T模型使用16张卡 · 技术路线/供给产能
  The thing that actually looks bad to me is them testing a 1.6T model on 16 cards when the deployment unit for V3-671B was 160 H800s
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=16 cards · date=2026-04-27
• <a id="atom-8198605aeed88a56"></a>🟥 2026-04-27 X·@teortaxesTex [老化中] · 网络化基础设施不足 · 技术路线/供给产能
  For all the "Huawei is a networking company" they clearly haven't networked enough yet
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-6186cb7aa4172ecd"></a>🟥 2026-05-25 X·@jukan05 · thermal and cost explanation · 技术路线
  Huawei has not clearly explained how it intends to handle thermals and cost
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-a69abbfd36ba56d7"></a>🟥 2026-06-25 X·@teortaxesTex · 跳过 Nvidia 向 fp4 的大转型 · 技术路线/竞争格局
  they've skipped Nvidia's massive pivot to fp4
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-2ec353bc7014862a"></a>🟥 2026-06-17 X·@pstAsiatech · 海外业务受限原因 · 供给产能/地缘政治
  shortage one reason Huawei's ambitions abroad remain limited for now
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-9de3df1cbaa350ab"></a>🟥 2026-06-12 X·@StevenGlinert · 28 metal layers do not automatically mean 2x transistor density · 技术路线/供给产能
  "Total 28 metal layers include 6 top (Mz) metal layers" ... That can do a lot of stuff for routing and frequency. But it does not automatically mean 2x transistor density.
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=28 metal layers
• <a id="atom-62f3d24cfd0679f2"></a>🟥 2026-05-25 X·@hackradios · 发明逻辑优化技术 · 技术路线
  No dude they invented a new logic optimization technique that nobody else can use! They're going to take the lead while we keep fiddling with our EUV gadgets!!!
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  value: direction=new logic optimization technique that nobody else can use
• <a id="atom-f39aac6cec05ca3d"></a>🟥 2026-05-25 X·@IanCutress · 14A等效节点时间预期 · 技术路线/工艺节点
  Huawei still has a way to go to hit 14A equivalents by 2031 using SMIC multipatterning
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  value: date=2031
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-10fed3ccd1cda87a"></a>🟥 2026-05-25 X·@IanCutress · 密度图表统计方法 · 技术路线/TAM
  That density chart is counting transistors in multiple stacked die. Not a monolith
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-f43f528f3b42367c"></a>🟥 2026-07-02 X·@teortaxesTex · 模型印象 · 模型发布
  I have never seen an impressive Huawei model
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-078734f09252ee49"></a>🟥 2026-06-30 X·@teortaxesTex · nothingburger for Huawei · 竞争格局
  _neither

nothingburger for huawei_

tags: 好观点 · → daily

• <a id="atom-7f8c86b1ff512e13"></a>🟥 2026-06-29 X·@LeroyGroffier · 对其他行业第二名公司的竞争行为 · 竞争格局
  given how many other #2s Huawei has completely destroyed or maimed over time, using mafia tactics and regular lawfare
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-4f08433c7ef942c6"></a>🟥 2026-06-25 X·@bookwormengr · HBM 量产瓶颈 · 供应链
  HBMs are still a bottle neck - in theory - for mass production
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-6127fcd00c5b6011"></a>🟥 2026-06-25 X·@teortaxesTex · impact from IBM 7A chip · 竞争格局
  huawei hardest hit
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-78bd89ce60b4d685"></a>🟥 2026-06-22 X·@lithos_graphein · smuggled EUV · 出口管制
  Huawei smuggled EUV
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-7472b4acef8767cd"></a>🟥 2026-06-18 X·@teortaxesTex · booked for next few years · 订单需求
  they'll be booked for the next few years
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-cb4eb1bd1edd84af"></a>🟥 2026-06-18 X·@teortaxesTex · lack wafer capacity · 供给产能
  they (and SMIC) don't have a lot of wafer capacity
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-3e363b2a8ab3a055"></a>🟥 2026-06-16 X·@mweinbach · failure rate · 良率/产品质量
  The failure rate is still extremely high but Huawei doesn’t care because they have stores everywhere like Apple and customers like it and it’s worth China eating that cost for a product like this
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=high
• <a id="atom-b9be64b1d66e6acb"></a>🟥 2026-06-12 X·@StevenGlinert · scaling claims BS · 技术路线
  Huawei's scaling claims are BS.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-97ea5058acdc059e"></a>🟥 2026-06-12 X·@StevenGlinert · presenting architectural gain as process-node gain · 技术路线
  Huawei presenting an architectural/layout gain as if it were a process-node gain.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-6245f072fb04cd46"></a>🟥 2026-06-10 X·@DrFrederickChen · HarmonyOS thermal sensing and management credibility · 技术路线/管理层表态
  The thermal sensing and management by HarmonyOS still appears to be handwaving, this is going to be a key detail that will be scrutinized.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-ec5fc08061c87228"></a>🟥 2026-06-05 X·@teortaxesTex · 2026年技术竞争力 · 竞争格局
  China exists. It has competitive tech.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-fd1aceae672d3474"></a>🟥 2026-05-26 X·@Underfox3 · 逻辑折叠策略被评价为不新奇 · 技术路线
  Nothing that Huawei has presented was groundbreaking to those truly familiar with semiconductors; even the LogicFolding strategy is not really big news.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-3b6a020ec26790c2"></a>🟥 2026-05-26 X·@TheRegister · chip law narrative · 技术路线/竞争格局
  Huawei's chip law looks less like Moore and more like marketing
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-d422ba43de68fa97"></a>🟥 2026-05-25 X·@chontang · litho front prove wrong not counting on that · 技术路线
  I gotta admit I had my money on Huawei proving you wrong on the litho front - but turns out they weren't counting on that at all.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-4703d3537eda987d"></a>🟥 2026-05-25 X·@teortaxesTex · advanced chip designs 能力 · 技术路线
  It'll be interesting to see how far Huawei can do with advanced chip designs despite DUV
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  📷 原图

🟥 中性 takes (neutral) (20)

• <a id="atom-6eed173bf28785d5"></a>🟥 2026-06-08 X·@ZhihuFrontier · proposed 1.5μm hybrid-bonding pitch for logic folding · 技术路线/供给产能
  The article argues that 1.5μm hybrid-bonding pitch is aggressive enough to enable meaningful logic folding, while remaining manufacturable at scale.
  tags: 好数字·好思考 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-232e81b3f1c5efd4"></a>🟥 2026-05-26 X·@SemiconTopics · 新法则使用τ时间常数指标化后摩尔时代技术 · 技术路线
  3D、チップレット、材料、HBM メモリ等で、遅延を減らして高速化を図るポストムーアの発想をタウという時間定数を使って共通指標化したというところか。
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-fd28fdf9b5163d5d"></a>🟥 2026-05-25 X·@dawn2042 · 提出了τ Scaling Law · 技术路线
  Paul Triolo: 'Huawei’s “τ Scaling Law” isn't Just marketing'
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-97b227a38e91ca18"></a>🟥 2026-05-25 X·@ohgkg · EUV by 2031 take · 技术路线/出口管制
  What's your take of Huawei reaching some form of EUV by 2031?
  tags: 好信源·好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-37eaa245f198ddf2"></a>🟥 2026-06-25 X·@teortaxesTex · GPU 能力达到 Hopper 级 · 技术路线
  They have now reached ≈Hopper class GPUs
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-ffce886470fa06b8"></a>🟥 2026-06-30 X·@bookwormengr · design approach · 技术路线
  Huawei does exactly same (low voltage, high frequency design) with their Tau scaling law
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=same as low voltage high frequency
• <a id="atom-f95069d8af20922c"></a>🟥 2026-06-21 X·@CRC_8341 · Ascend CloudMatrix 384 Supernode 深度项目分析 · 产品发布/技术路线
  Huawei Ascend CloudMatrix 384 Supernode: In-Depth Project Analysis
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-e3e8b43914269d07"></a>🟥 2026-05-27 X·@chontang · 2026 年出货芯片密度 claim · 芯片密度
  Huawei is claiming that the chip they ship this year will be more dense then leading process node chips by ~10%
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=~10% higher than leading process node chips · date=this year (2026)
• <a id="atom-ba6a127ec0f6f4f2"></a>🟥 2026-05-26 X·@fi56622380 · 首代折叠芯片 EDA 水平 · 技术路线
  I suspect that the first generation is still 2D EDA, with temporary stacking still being IP on IP level stacking + clock gen related logic stacking
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-7b65ede00cb40b1d"></a>🟥 2026-05-26 X·@teortaxesTex · 计划推出SoC时间 · 产品发布
  what is novel is that they plan to launch a SoC with it in months
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: date=months
• <a id="atom-cd043cbe219d7264"></a>🟥 2026-05-25 X·@zephyr_z9 · 内部做封装业务的可能 · 供给产能
  Huawei could do it internally
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-02c78b60ff0580ca"></a>🟥 2026-05-24 X·@zephyr_z9 [老旧] · Hybrid bonding scaling and cracking considered super impressive · 技术路线
  Huawei cracking & scaling Hybrid bonding will be super impressive
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=super impressive
• <a id="atom-4f3cb73c3dfbd551"></a>🟥 2026-05-24 X·@zephyr_z9 [老旧] · Mobile chips small size makes them good for testing Hybrid bonding · 产品发布
  Mobile chips are small, so they are good for testing
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=small · date=current · direction=good for testing
• <a id="atom-c139e535bdae9dd4"></a>🟥 2026-07-03 X·@ChrisRMcGuire · AI芯片生产质量和数量对比Nvidia · 竞争格局/供给产能
  Huawei significantly lags Nvidia in AI chip production quality and quantity
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=lag
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-3f2c5d84c4426c94"></a>🟥 2026-06-20 X·@semidoped · tau scaling 声称可提速 · 技术路线/性能提升
  If you can cut delay by stacking logic and removing DSP hops, the system gets faster even without a normal Moore's Law shrink
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-f5fc5f81231ce7da"></a>🟥 2026-06-12 X·@teortaxesTex · density projected onto a plane fair · 技术路线
  it's bs in the sense that they are not counting planar density, but it's fair in the sense of density projected onto a plane.
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-3ab3047ea0af57ea"></a>🟥 2026-06-12 X·@teortaxesTex · can't calculate density discounting 3D · 技术路线
  But I think we can't calculate density discounting 3D
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-2fa76b10d89cfb80"></a>🟥 2026-06-10 X·@DrFrederickChen · stacking chips using HBI impact on transistor density · 技术路线/供给产能
  If we are focusing on total silicon area consumed, then no. If we are considering in terms of yield, it's ok. If we are considering in terms of fitting with a package, probably also ok, although maybe volume becomes more relevant.
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-11f2b336e53b9cf5"></a>🟥 2026-06-10 X·@DrFrederickChen · tau consideration as valid argument · 技术路线
  A fourth consideration is exactly the tau consideration, delay/distance between transistors. Then Huawei may argue that it is valid. But this picture is not so clear, without verifying that distances are really shortened.
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-6d0a2da42fc6fa79"></a>🟥 2026-05-31 X·@StevenGlinert · CloudMatrix推理优化 · 技术路线/推理优化
  they've optimized the way they do inference as a routing problem, basically routing their tokens to 'experts'
  tags: 好思考 · → daily

🟦 新闻流 (squawk · 18)

⏱ 时间轴 (近 20)

• 🟦 2026-07-03 · fact · 销售行为 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-03 · fact · AI芯片生产质量和数量对比Nvidia · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-03 · forecast · development trajectory assessment · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · implemented memory pooling across 192 CPUs · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-02 · narrative · Ascend 950DT 推出计划 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · 工程成就 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · 模型版本 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-02 · narrative · 模型印象 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-02 · forecast · 2026年出货预估 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-01 · narrative · claims it can match TSMC by 2031 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-01 · narrative · Atlas 采用上一代组件以规避供应问题 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-01 · fact · HiZQ 2.0 内存容量 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-01 · fact · HiZQ 2.0 可堆叠 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-01 · fact · 产品非DGX Station · → daily
• 🟦 2026-06-30 · fact · 后训练DeepSeek模型在910C芯片上 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-06-30 · fact · 提供910C芯片在CM384算力集群 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-06-30 · fact · open-sources OpenPangu-2.0-Flash · → daily
• 🟦 2026-06-30 · fact · OpenPangu 2.0 Flash model total parameters · → daily
• 🟦 2026-06-30 · fact · OpenPangu 2.0 Flash model active parameters · → daily
• 🟦 2026-06-30 · fact · OpenPangu 2.0 Pro model total parameters · → daily

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