MediaTek

230 atoms · 跨 50 天 · 首见 2026-04-16 · 最近 2026-07-11

三色: 🟦 fact 127 · 🟥 take 103 · stance ▲140/▼17/◆32

叙事状态: ⚔️ contested (分歧) · 📈 加速 · 策展近14d 11 atom · 🐦 X 近14d 24

状态只算低频策展源 (群/卖方); X firehose 仅作背景音量

来源: 群 6 · X 207 · 卖 5 · News 9

时态: fresh:198 · aging:29 · stale:2 · expired:1

标签: 好观点:88 · 好信源:85 · 好数字:82 · 好思考:15 · 好问题:2

别名 (合并): Mediatek

🟨 AI 综合 · junior analyst 概览

🧭 拥挤度 (一人一票): ▲ 32 位作者 (KOL31 · 卖方1) + 群 2 条 vs ▼ 6 位作者 (KOL5 · 卖方1) + 群 1 条

⚖️ 多头 31/32 来自KOL

📄 广泛报道的事实 · 6 个

💢 核心分歧 (6 轴)

1. AI ASIC 第二增长曲线兑现 vs 泡沫

*topic: 数据中心算力/竞争格局/营收预测 · 27 bull vs 4 bear*

🟢 bullish 侧:

• <a id="atom-6c3ed7e592ac4fa5"></a>2026-04-16 X·@MoodyWriter13 · 微LED 可实现比 VCSEL 解决方案节能 50% · 能耗效率/数据中心算力
  According to MediaTek/Microsoft, the approach enables up to 50% energy savings versus VCSEL-based solutions – and energy is the central bottleneck in data center expansion.
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=50% · direction=less
• <a id="atom-9cf11e2415b78b15"></a>2026-04-19 X·@insane_analyst [老化中] · 长期前景判断 · 竞争格局/仓位情绪
  Mediatek has hope.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-b39a741509135959"></a>2026-04-30 X·@jukan05 · AI ASIC server compute shipment share forecast 2028 · 出货量/数据中心算力
  MediaTek to Contribute 1 in 4 AI ASIC Server Compute Shipments in 2028
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=1 in 4 · date=2028
• <a id="atom-0fb312e228307160"></a>2026-04-30 X·@BenBajarin · 2028年定制ASIC营收预测 · 营收预测 +同日1条
  Revenue projections for MTK in 2028 just for custom ASIC could be more than total company revenue FY 2025.
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=大于FY2025总营收 · date=2028
• <a id="atom-92662994cd8fdccb"></a>2026-04-30 X·@nowhere_2021 [老化中] · AI ASIC·데이터센터 사업 추진 · 技术路线/数据中心算力
  스마트폰 사업 둔화에도 불구, AI ASIC·데이터센터 사업을 강력 추진하며 성장 동력을 전환.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily

🔴 bearish 侧:

• <a id="atom-59f5b62b1761d7eb"></a>2026-05-27 群 · 疑似赢得xAI ASIC设计订单 · ASIC设计/竞争格局
  MediaTek may have won xAI ASIC design (Intel 14A) which was expected to go to AVGO
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-7c444fd60b58c818"></a>2026-04-28 X·@jukan05 [老化中] · 面临负面影响 · 竞争格局/营收 +同日1条
  This would be a major negative for Broadcom and MTK.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-120da149a4b6abea"></a>2026-06-15 X·@mingchikuo · ASIC 设计增长放缓时间预期 · 业绩指引/竞争格局
  Growth momentum in ASIC design may begin to slow in 2-3 years as the Semi-COT business model takes hold
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: date=2-3 years

2. ASIC 门槛降低 vs 护城河存疑

*topic: 竞争格局/技术路线 · 22 bull vs 2 bear*

🟢 bullish 侧:

• <a id="atom-a38a6dc85aa492fe"></a>2026-04-20 X·@ScroogeCap [老化中] · TPUv8i设计合作伙伴 · 技术路线/合作客户
  TPUv8i 'Zebrafish' — for Inference: the cost-efficient version (design partner: MediaTek)
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-15cc9be667b04459"></a>2026-04-27 X·@jukan05 ⭐ [老化中] · ASIC design opportunity with OpenAI · 合作客户/技术路线
  Positive implication — it opens ASIC opportunities with OpenAI. MTK could provide capability proven via TPU 8t tape-out with strong in back-end offerings (CoWoS/EMIB/InFO)
  tags: 好观点·好思考·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty= · date=
• <a id="atom-d7ba18c2c5f0b402"></a>2026-04-30 X·@Wenyee_Lee [老化中] · AI megatrend statement · 技术路线
  No question the AI megatrend continues, Taiwan's MediaTek says
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-145baff2cec50554"></a>2026-04-27 X·@sssjeffpu [老化中] · 与 OpenAI 洽谈边缘AI项目可能性 · 合作客户/技术路线 +同日1条
  High chance MTK to win OpenAI's edge-AI project, likely N3-based SoC and target Tape-out targeted 1H27
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=high chance
• <a id="atom-960558ff194813a2"></a>2026-04-30 X·@zubo_semicon [老化中] · AI定制半导体业务趋势 · 技术路线
  AIカスタム半導体は拡大へ
  tags: 好观点 · → daily

🔴 bearish 侧:

• <a id="atom-f194bc67a7074905"></a>2026-05-04 X·@WSTAnalystApe [老化中] · 能对标Broadcom说明ASIC门槛不高 · 竞争格局
  連 MediaTek 都能切進來直接對標 Broadcom，代表 ASIC 門檻沒那麼高
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-0b00302709066ead"></a>2026-06-15 X·@mingchikuo · 赢得 Google L10 机架几率 · 订单需求/竞争格局
  MediaTek chances of winning L10 are slim
  tags: 好观点 · → daily

3. Google TPU 份额扩张 vs 供应链延迟

*topic: 合作客户/供给产能/订单需求 · 13 bull vs 1 bear*

🟢 bullish 侧:

• <a id="atom-8895fbe9ea94059c"></a>2026-04-27 X·@jukan05 · Meta AR 眼镜年度出货量预期 · 出货量/订单需求
  we expect this product to reach annual shipments of 6–7 million units.
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=6-7 million units · date=annual
• <a id="atom-01992402fdca37c2"></a>2026-04-27 X·@FirstSquawk [老化中] · 获得OpenAI供应商关注 · 合作客户
  MEDIATEK, QUALCOMM, LUXSHARE IN FOCUS – DIGITIMES
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-e6dfc40ad7f1660b"></a>2026-04-30 X·@nowhere_2021 [老化中] · Google, OpenAI 등 주요 고객과의 협력이 핵심 성장 동력 · 合作客户/订单需求
  하이퍼스케일러 ASIC수요 증가 속에서 Google, OpenAI 등 주요 고객과의 협력이 핵심 성장 동력임
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-333b99464f5ef3cb"></a>2026-05-09 X·@mzuhair123 · next to use Intel Foundry · 订单需求
  Broadcom or MediaTek is next; I have 'very,very' solid reasons for it.
  tags: 好观点·好问题 · → daily
• <a id="atom-22b0ac9a0b8016e3"></a>2026-05-09 X·@PatrickMoorhead [老化中] · possible Intel Foundry customer for XPUs · 订单需求
  Ok, so for XPUs. MediaTek I can see.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily

🔴 bearish 侧:

• <a id="atom-a8d0e8964a2ae8de"></a>2026-04-30 X·@dnystedt · CEO Rick Tsai对移动业务的判断 · 管理层表态/订单需求
  “For the mobile business, of course, this year is facing pretty strong headwinds because of the DRAM, supply and pricing. That being said, we view mobile to resume its replacement cycle in a year or a little more than a year.” — Rick Tsai, MediaTek CEO
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: date=2026

4. 手机业务拖累 vs AI 抵消下行

*topic: 营收/订单需求/业绩指引 · 22 bull vs 2 bear*

🟢 bullish 侧:

• <a id="atom-a5d74a7673034573"></a>2026-04-27 X·@jukan05 · Humufish ASP 及出货量预期 · 营收/订单需求 +同日2条
  Humufish has an ASP of US$15,000, with shipments reaching 3.5 million units by the end of 2028.
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=US$15,000 ASP, 3.5 million units shipments by end of 2028
• <a id="atom-a3171d740f7e03ed"></a>2026-04-30 X·@Arronwei3n · secured ASIC project · 合作客户/订单需求
  MediaTek just shared it secured another ASIC project
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
• <a id="atom-8717f93db873bdd0"></a>2026-04-30 X·@BenBajarin · 数据中心ASIC机会进展 · 订单需求
  Management also said it is pursuing several additional data center ASIC opportunities, with some already in final-stage discussions.
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: status=已在最终讨论阶段
• <a id="atom-669261cf383d900a"></a>2026-05-01 X·@Arronwei3n · 12个月目标价 · 评级目标价/营收 +同日3条
  Mediatek TP5000, 90% upside.
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=NT$5,000.00 · date=12m
  [图: 高盛（Goldman Sachs）关于联发科（MediaTek）的卖方研究报告截图，重点预测了其AI ASIC业务的增长及未来财务指标。 — 12个月目标价 (12m TP): NT$5,000.00; 当前股价 (Price): NT$2,610.00; 潜在涨幅 (Upside): 91.6%; 2028E AI ASIC营收预测: US$48b
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-bafa73f850689153"></a>2026-05-03 X·@dnystedt ⭐ · 2028 custom ASIC TAM estimate · TAM/业绩指引 +同日1条
  He also raised his view of the total addressable market for custom ASICs to US$70-$80 billion by 2028, from a previous estimate $60-$70 billion
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=$70-$80 billion · date=2028

🔴 bearish 侧:

• <a id="atom-00120e2a040420c9"></a>2026-04-30 X·@dnystedt · 2026年全球智能手机出货量下降预测 · 订单需求/出货量
  sees global smartphone shipments down 15% in 2026 due to high memory chip prices
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=-15% · date=2026
• <a id="atom-dd92eb4744f3a91e"></a>2026-06-15 X·@mingchikuo · Musk 自研 AI 芯片机架订单时间可见性 · 订单需求/路线图
  This business still lacks clear timeline visibility
  tags: 好观点 · → daily

5. CoWoS 产能保障 vs 瓶颈风险

*topic: 供给产能/供应链 · 13 bull vs 1 bear*

🟢 bullish 侧:

• <a id="atom-4535f323f9298a4e"></a>2026-04-26 X·@Arronwei3n · 預計取得 2nm TPU 部分 CoWoS 產能 · 供给产能
  We expect MediaTek to secure a certain amount of CoWoS capacity for 2nm TPU to ensure the minimum volume production
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
  [图: 摩根士丹利关于谷歌2纳米TPU采用台积电CoWoS-L和英特尔EMIB双源封装的分析报告截图 — 2nm (TPU工艺节点); 9.7x (台积电CoWoS路线图支持的光罩尺寸上限)]
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-d562228444944ac3"></a>2026-04-27 X·@jukan05 ⭐ · v8x CoWoS 产能分配增长 · 供给产能/资本开支
  MediaTek’s v8x CoWoS capacity allocation for 2027 has been raised from 70,000 wafers to 160,000 wafers, corresponding to 3.2 million packaged chips.
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=160,000 wafers · date=2027 · direction=上升
• <a id="atom-a0a0c3cf7d736b97"></a>2026-04-27 X·@dnystedt · 增加消费市场CPU产量以利用短缺 · 供给产能
  MediaTek is boosting CPU production for the consumer market to take advantage of the shortage
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-c4d26b2ef63e6b8d"></a>2026-04-27 X·@sssjeffpu · 通过 TPU 8t tape-out 证明能力 · 技术路线/供应链
  MTK could provide capability proven via TPU 8t tape-out with strong in back-end offerings (CoWoS/EMIB/InFO)
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-bac39c36e7cb459e"></a>2026-05-01 X·@jukan05 · insiders expect technical and mass-production risks reduced with EMIB-T · 良率/供给产能
  MediaTek insiders reportedly expect that his arrival will make it much easier to manage the technical and mass-production risks associated with the first adoption of EMIB-T than previously feared
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=reduced
  📷 原图

🔴 bearish 侧:

• <a id="atom-92c356d0e97f1baf"></a>2026-05-04 X·@TShirtnJeans2 [老化中] · 在TPU供应链中严重延迟 · 供给产能
  the market knew MediaTek was in the TPU supply chain but it thinks the company was significantly delayed due to packaging difficulties
  tags: 好思考 · → daily

6. Meta/OpenAI 客户突破 vs 单一依赖隐患

*topic: 合作客户/产品发布 · 10 bull vs 1 bear*

🟢 bullish 侧:

• <a id="atom-394f994ecbf4eb12"></a>2026-04-23 X·@Arronwei3n [老化中] · 供应链角色 · 供应链/产品发布
  It is reported that MediaTek (MTK) is handling the training SKU
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=training SKU
  [图: 关于谷歌发布TPU 8t和TPU 8i的卖方研究报告截图 — TPU 8t HBM容量: 216GB; 先前预估HBM容量: 144GB; TPU 8i TPU与CPU比例: 1:1; TPUv7 TPU与CPU比例: 2:1]
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-cdd555ec86aa4333"></a>2026-04-27 X·@jukan05 [老化中] · Meta 下一代 AR 眼镜 SoC 供应商 · 供应合作/产品发布 +同日2条
  the product will use two SRAM chips supplied by AP Memory (6531 TT) and one SoC supplied by MediaTek, replacing Qualcomm, with mass production targeted for the end of 2027
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: date=2027年底
• <a id="atom-f34f3f295b867356"></a>2026-04-27 X·@sssjeffpu [老化中] · Meta AR Glass 下一代机会可见度提升 · 产品发布/市场份额
  Growing visibility for next-gen AR Glass: 2x SRAM (by AP Memory) + MTK SoC (MTK replacing Qualcomm)
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-79f9940bb84e217b"></a>2026-05-03 X·@dnystedt · ASIC AI chip project progress · 合作客户/产品发布
  Mediatek’s first ASIC AI chip project for a US hyperscale customer is progressing fairly well
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=fairly well
• <a id="atom-b95fdf3d5e53dda0"></a>2026-05-28 X·@jukan05 · supplying TPU for Google v8e with EMIB packaging · 合作客户/产品发布
  네 ㅋㅋ 알사람은 다 알았죠 미디어텍 TPU향인거
  tags: 好信源 · → daily

🔴 bearish 侧:

• <a id="atom-220e15f9c4dfc59c"></a>2026-05-05 X·@TShirtnJeans2 · TPUv8进度按计划进行 · 产品发布
  MediaTek is on schedule with TPUv8
  tags: 好信源·好数字 · → daily

🔗 因果传导 (causal map)

*MediaTek 在产业链上的传导关系. 边是群里/卖方陈述的因果 (非 AI 推断), 数字 = 几条 atom 支撑. 点 atom 溯源.*

↓ 下游·近期陈述 (5)

• 🟢 Google TPU program · 竞争 · 1 次陈述
  MediaTek is not only riding the price hike wave but also eyeing more share in #Google’s TPU program
• 🟢 ABF基板供应商 · 需求拉动 · 1 次陈述
  MediaTek (2454) has secured sufficient ABF substrate supply (facilitated by visits to Japan to help Google obtain more T
• 🟢 Intel EMIB-T · 需求拉动 · 1 次陈述
  MediaTek choosing Intel EMIB-T could be a real edge.
• 🟢 Apple · 份额外溢 · 1 次陈述
  Apple stands to gain as a pure consumer-focused company if Qualcomm and MediaTek reduce focus on consumer market.
• 🔴 AVGO · 竞争 · 1 次陈述
  MediaTek may have won xAI ASIC design (Intel 14A) which was expected to go to AVGO

↑ 上游·近期陈述 (2)

• 🟢 Google · 订单转移 · 2 次陈述
  MediaTek Secures Google TPU v9 Orders with 336G SerDes Solution
• 🟢 Intel · 订单转移 · 1 次陈述
  INTC foundry deals potential: Apple M-Series wafers, MediaTek TPU wafers, other ARM-based server CPUs

📏 估计带 (1)

*语料内对同一量的估计区间 (≥2 个估计才成带). 不判断谁对, 只陈列.*

• 目标价 未标期限 ⚠混合口径: $2M – $6.4e+03T · 4 个估计 · 最新 2026-06-29 $6.4e+03T (X·cred3)

🔮 前瞻触发器 (forward triggers)

*这些 atom 指向可能 reprice 的前瞻事件 (无精确日期, 仅类型). 配合上面叙事状态看「上膛」程度.*

产品 (2 · ▲2/▼0)

• 🟢 2026-05-30 · Humufish 成为下一代核心 TPU 平台
  MediaTek 的 Humufish 看起来更像核心下一代 TPU 平台
• 🟢 2026-05-30 · 下一代 TPU 转向 2nm + HBM4e
  MTK 转向 2nm + HBM4e

📊 程序化变化 (近 7 天)

• 新增 7 atoms
• 本周新 topic: ASIC/手机芯片/投资推荐/数据中心/评级调整
• 已过期 forecast: 1 条

🟦 客观事实 (facts) (30)

• <a id="atom-d1901108906c4eed"></a>🟦 2026-06-29 X·@dnystedt ⭐ · 目标价上调 · 评级目标价
  Macquarie Securities raised its price target on chip designer MediaTek to NT$10,000
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=NT$10,000 · date=2026-06-30
• <a id="atom-9534cbc779565309"></a>🟦 2026-06-22 X·@jukan05 ⭐ · Humufish+Triggerfish生命周期量预期上调 · 出货量/订单需求
  raising the life cycle volume expectations for Humufish+ Triggerfish to 6-7 million units (up from 5 million)
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=600-700万颗 · date=生命周期 · direction=up
• <a id="atom-48c1656abcac1d7e"></a>🟦 2026-06-22 X·@jukan05 ⭐ · Humufish+Triggerfish生命周期预计ASP · 价格动态
  we estimate Humufish ASP at $15k and Triggerfish ASP at $20k
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=$15k-$20k
• <a id="atom-87a1a4d66c86be82"></a>🟦 2026-05-29 X·@illyquid ⭐ · A14工艺测试生产 · 技术路线/产品发布
  MediaTek currently has several chips in test production with TSMC's A14 process node, which is expected to enter mass production in 2028
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=several chips · date=2026-05-29
• <a id="atom-da0f9020a8734c88"></a>🟦 2026-05-29 X·@illyquid ⭐ · 旗舰手机芯片制程 · 技术路线/产品发布
  JC Hsu, MediaTek's corporate vice president ... said its latest flagship smartphone chip will be built with 2-nm tech this year
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=2-nm · date=2026
• <a id="atom-63ab7d2771bb6864"></a>🟦 2026-05-03 X·@dnystedt ⭐ · 2025 custom ASIC revenue guidance · 营收预测/业绩指引
  the custom ASIC business is expected to see US$2 billion in revenue this year, double the prior estimate of $1 billion
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=$2 billion · date=2025
• <a id="atom-d562228444944ac3"></a>🟦 2026-04-27 X·@jukan05 ⭐ · v8x CoWoS 产能分配增长 · 供给产能/资本开支
  MediaTek’s v8x CoWoS capacity allocation for 2027 has been raised from 70,000 wafers to 160,000 wafers, corresponding to 3.2 million packaged chips.
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=160,000 wafers · date=2027 · direction=上升
• <a id="atom-72e9fdc2b0666a13"></a>🟦 2026-07-01 群 · Meta 作为 ASIC 客户 · 合作关系/芯片设计
  DigiTimes: MediaTek has secured Meta as its second ASIC customer.
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-3a7d0bd1758046f1"></a>🟦 2026-05-30 群 · 下一代 TPU 转向 2nm + HBM4e · 技术进步/制程升级
  MTK 转向 2nm + HBM4e
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=2nm + HBM4e
• <a id="atom-6c3ed7e592ac4fa5"></a>🟦 2026-04-16 X·@MoodyWriter13 · 微LED 可实现比 VCSEL 解决方案节能 50% · 能耗效率/数据中心算力
  According to MediaTek/Microsoft, the approach enables up to 50% energy savings versus VCSEL-based solutions – and energy is the central bottleneck in data center expansion.
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=50% · direction=less
• <a id="atom-984e04c139b4183c"></a>🟦 2026-05-29 X·@illyquid ⭐ · 2026年数据中心AI芯片营收预测 · 业绩指引/数据中心算力
  MediaTek recently raised its forecast for data center AI chip revenue for 2026 from $1 billion to $2 billion
  tags: 好数字·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=$1B->$2B · date=2026
• <a id="atom-553da3c5a41e93a9"></a>🟦 2026-07-01 X·@HiCagr · EMIB-T next-gen program · 合作客户/技术路线
  MediaTek already told Goldman Sachs its next-gen program is EMIB-T only, tapeout targeted Q4'26
  tags: 好信源·好数字 · → daily
  value: date=Q4'26 tapeout
• <a id="atom-5dbff732304c5b3f"></a>🟦 2026-07-01 X·@jukan05 ⭐ · TPU 参与 · 产品路线图/营收预测
  its participation in the v9 generation Triggerfish is now all but confirmed. This means that from late 2026 through 2028, and even into 2029, MediaTek can steadily reap the revenue contribution brought by TPU mass production.
  tags: 好信源·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=v9 世代 · date=late 2026 through 2028, and even into 2029
• <a id="atom-e96deaa8bb0c4364"></a>🟦 2026-05-29 X·@illyquid ⭐ · 与Intel的先进封装合作 · 供给产能/合作客户
  MediaTek says it has started working with Intel for advanced chip packaging in addition to its existing relationship with TSMC
  tags: 好信源·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-220e15f9c4dfc59c"></a>🟦 2026-05-05 X·@TShirtnJeans2 · TPUv8进度按计划进行 · 产品发布
  MediaTek is on schedule with TPUv8
  tags: 好信源·好数字 · → daily
• <a id="atom-801db595b8c22536"></a>🟦 2026-05-03 X·@mingchikuo · 台积电第三大先进制程客户 · 竞争格局
  聯發科是台積電第三大先進製程客戶（2025年）
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: date=2025
• <a id="atom-34ea58abc44e00f4"></a>🟦 2026-04-30 X·@BenBajarin · 2027年AI加速器ASIC项目营收预期 · 营收预测
  management said it had already secured capacity and was 'very confident' the first project would scale to multiple billions of U.S. dollars.
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=多个十亿美元 · date=2027
• <a id="atom-b39a741509135959"></a>🟦 2026-04-30 X·@jukan05 · AI ASIC server compute shipment share forecast 2028 · 出货量/数据中心算力
  MediaTek to Contribute 1 in 4 AI ASIC Server Compute Shipments in 2028
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=1 in 4 · date=2028
• <a id="atom-71b093d52881a824"></a>🟦 2026-06-22 X·@dnystedt · 赢得谷歌TPU v9芯片主要订单 · 订单需求/技术路线
  MediaTek won primary orders for Google’s TPU v9 chips by delivering a custom 336G SerDes solution
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=primary orders · date=未指定
• <a id="atom-bac39c36e7cb459e"></a>🟦 2026-05-01 X·@jukan05 · insiders expect technical and mass-production risks reduced with EMIB-T · 良率/供给产能
  MediaTek insiders reportedly expect that his arrival will make it much easier to manage the technical and mass-production risks associated with the first adoption of EMIB-T than previously feared
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=reduced
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-0906639259416f6d"></a>🟦 2026-06-04 X·@knockouttrader · UBS 对其在 COMPUTEX 的亮点总结 · 技术路线/合作客户
  _UBS with some more Asian highlights from its 2026 COMPUTEX booth tour

(++) MediaTek continues pushing beyond smartphones into custom ASICs, CPO, AI PCs and automotive. The interesting piece is its own optical engine and Ayar Labs collaboration, potentially positioning it deeper inside future AI datacenter architectures._

tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily

📷 原图

• <a id="atom-d5e490c26e7cef4b"></a>🟦 2026-06-23 卖·MS Tom Wigg · CoWoS capacity demand
  MediaTek's global CoWoS capacity demand is estimated at 40k wafers in 2026e.
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=40 · date=2026
• <a id="atom-a7d3958aa89fa016"></a>🟦 2026-07-01 X·@dnystedt · custom ASIC business expected revenue · 营收
  MediaTek is focused on its custom ASIC business, which is expected to hit US$10 billion revenue
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=$10 billion
• <a id="atom-b6325a13de1b591a"></a>🟦 2026-06-26 X·@jukan05 · 市值 · 市值比较
  2026年联发科市值: $195B
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=$195B · date=2026
  [图: 联发科（MediaTek）与高通（Qualcomm）在2016至2026年间的市值对比及联发科市值占高通比例的变化趋势图 — 2026年高通市值: $200B; 2026年联发科市值: $195B; 2016年联发科市值占高通比例: 11%; 2026年联发科市值占高通比例: 98%]
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-359fa9af55676994"></a>🟦 2026-06-15 X·@mingchikuo · AI 业务战略定位升级 · 技术路线/竞争格局
  MediaTek has upgraded the strategic positioning of its AI business from IC / ASIC design to system-level design
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=upgrade
• <a id="atom-56e11316be7a4406"></a>🟦 2026-06-02 X·@jukan05 · 下一代芯片 tape-out 目标时间 · 里程碑
  tape-out targeted for 4Q26
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=4Q26 · date=4Q26
• <a id="atom-f472a8ef42a51a49"></a>🟦 2026-06-02 X·@jukan05 · 下一代芯片量产目标时间 · 里程碑
  mass production by 4Q27
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=4Q27 · date=4Q27
• <a id="atom-3c9cad72fcc77585"></a>🟦 2026-06-01 X·@dnystedt · employee salary/benefits per worker 2025 · 薪酬
  MediaTek’s NT$4.6 million ($146,500)
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=NT$4.6 million · date=2025
• <a id="atom-69be77de9371f670"></a>🟦 2026-05-26 X·@dnystedt · 2nm TPU 出货 2028 近翻倍 · 出货量
  shipments of MediaTek’s 2nm TPU project in 2028 seen up nearly twofold
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=近翻倍 · date=2028
• <a id="atom-73112a3e50eea5d6"></a>🟦 2026-04-30 X·@dnystedt · 3月季度手机营收下降幅度 · 营收
  MediaTek: mobile phone revenue -17% vs prior quarter
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=-17% · direction=down · date=March quarter 2026

🟥 多头 takes (bullish) (30)

• <a id="atom-15cc9be667b04459"></a>🟥 2026-04-27 X·@jukan05 ⭐ [老化中] · ASIC design opportunity with OpenAI · 合作客户/技术路线
  Positive implication — it opens ASIC opportunities with OpenAI. MTK could provide capability proven via TPU 8t tape-out with strong in back-end offerings (CoWoS/EMIB/InFO)
  tags: 好观点·好思考·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty= · date=
• <a id="atom-bafa73f850689153"></a>🟥 2026-05-03 X·@dnystedt ⭐ · 2028 custom ASIC TAM estimate · TAM/业绩指引
  He also raised his view of the total addressable market for custom ASICs to US$70-$80 billion by 2028, from a previous estimate $60-$70 billion
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=$70-$80 billion · date=2028
• <a id="atom-5de10a26614cc418"></a>🟥 2026-05-03 X·@dnystedt ⭐ · 2027 custom ASIC market share target · 市场份额/业绩指引
  MediaTek’s goal is to win 10%-15% market share in 2027
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=10%-15% · date=2027
• <a id="atom-c1853f88ad494ccd"></a>🟥 2026-07-01 X·@jukan05 · 营收目标 · 营收预测/业绩指引
  it appears that MediaTek, holding multiple TPU ASIC orders, reaching the 10 billion dollar level is only a matter of time.
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=$10 billion level · date=2029
• <a id="atom-8895fbe9ea94059c"></a>🟥 2026-04-27 X·@jukan05 · Meta AR 眼镜年度出货量预期 · 出货量/订单需求
  we expect this product to reach annual shipments of 6–7 million units.
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=6-7 million units · date=annual
• <a id="atom-a5d74a7673034573"></a>🟥 2026-04-27 X·@jukan05 · Humufish ASP 及出货量预期 · 营收/订单需求
  Humufish has an ASP of US$15,000, with shipments reaching 3.5 million units by the end of 2028.
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=US$15,000 ASP, 3.5 million units shipments by end of 2028
• <a id="atom-43bb5c0568465b6b"></a>🟥 2026-04-27 X·@jukan05 · TPU 8t 均价上调至 US$4,400 · 定价权/营收
  raising the average selling price of TPU 8t to US$4,400
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=US$4,400
• <a id="atom-aa5b503e9325365e"></a>🟥 2026-04-27 X·@jukan05 · 2026/2027 EPS 预估上调 · 盈利能力/业绩指引
  we raise our 2026/2027 EPS estimates by 1%/4%, respectively.
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=1%/4% · date=2026/2027
• <a id="atom-6afe2f4cca4eb7b6"></a>🟥 2026-04-27 X·@jukan05 · 目标价上调至 NT$2,850 · 评级目标价
  we raise our target price from NT$2,750 to NT$2,850 and reiterate our Buy rating.
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=NT$2,850
• <a id="atom-0e6eb397ba7d9b8b"></a>🟥 2026-06-22 X·@knockouttrader · TPU 相关销售预期 · 营收预测
  MediaTek’s TPU-related sales to reach roughly US$18B in 2027
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=US$18B · date=2027
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-6e0214b063cfa739"></a>🟥 2026-06-22 X·@knockouttrader · Cloud ASIC 业务规模预期 · 营收预测
  In UBS’s base case, MediaTek’s Cloud ASIC business reaches US$35B by 2028
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=US$35B · date=2028
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-73c961415b077692"></a>🟥 2026-05-27 X·@AIStockSavvy · 上调CY26/CY27/CY28 ASIC营收预测 · 营收预测
  Consequently, we revise up our CY26/CY27/CY28 ASIC revenue forecasts by 5%/7%/14%, respectively
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=5%/7%/14% · date=CY26/CY27/CY28
• <a id="atom-4535f323f9298a4e"></a>🟥 2026-04-26 X·@Arronwei3n · 預計取得 2nm TPU 部分 CoWoS 產能 · 供给产能
  We expect MediaTek to secure a certain amount of CoWoS capacity for 2nm TPU to ensure the minimum volume production
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
  [图: 摩根士丹利关于谷歌2纳米TPU采用台积电CoWoS-L和英特尔EMIB双源封装的分析报告截图 — 2nm (TPU工艺节点); 9.7x (台积电CoWoS路线图支持的光罩尺寸上限)]
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-09e3b50f7d2c22a0"></a>🟥 2026-06-15 X·@mingchikuo · 系统级整合业务毛利率目标 · 毛利率/盈利能力
  To secure a gross margin of at least 40-50% in its system-level integration business
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=40-50%
• <a id="atom-669261cf383d900a"></a>🟥 2026-05-01 X·@Arronwei3n · 12个月目标价 · 评级目标价/营收
  Mediatek TP5000, 90% upside.
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=NT$5,000.00 · date=12m
  [图: 高盛（Goldman Sachs）关于联发科（MediaTek）的卖方研究报告截图，重点预测了其AI ASIC业务的增长及未来财务指标。 — 12个月目标价 (12m TP): NT$5,000.00; 当前股价 (Price): NT$2,610.00; 潜在涨幅 (Upside): 91.6%; 2028E AI ASIC营收预测: US$48b
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-0fb312e228307160"></a>🟥 2026-04-30 X·@BenBajarin · 2028年定制ASIC营收预测 · 营收预测
  Revenue projections for MTK in 2028 just for custom ASIC could be more than total company revenue FY 2025.
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=大于FY2025总营收 · date=2028
• <a id="atom-c0fec6aceb3066b4"></a>🟥 2026-07-01 X·@DrNHJ · TPU v8t 용량 지원 · 供给产能
  MediaTek이 400만 개 규모의 TPU v8t 용량을 지원
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=400만 개
• <a id="atom-25b74741a3a3c110"></a>🟥 2026-06-27 群 · 2027 年 2nm TPU v9 出货预期 · 出货预测/产品路线
  MediaTek could ship around 400k units of 2nm TPU v9 through Intel EMIB-T in 2027.
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=400k units · date=2027
• <a id="atom-01f24c8e85fc39e8"></a>🟥 2026-07-11 News · 2奈米旗艦晶片上市時間 · 技术路线/手机芯片
  聯發科首款採用2奈米製程的次世代旗艦手機晶片，搭載機種預計第三季底上市。
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: time=2026年第三季底
• <a id="atom-a6c9ae963a54fcc0"></a>🟥 2026-06-23 X·@dnystedt · 计划投资 · 合作客户/竞争格局
  Rumor: MediaTek plans to invest in custom chip designer Global Unichip (GUC), a TSMC subsidiary
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-d0681d59a3dc800e"></a>🟥 2026-06-23 X·@intelfabs · 目标价 · 评级目标价
  目标价: NT$6,500
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=NT$6,500
  [图: 瑞银（UBS）关于联发科（MediaTek）的研究报告截图，分析了其产品涨价预期及Google TPU业务的前景。 — 目标价: NT$6,500; 产品涨价幅度: 5-10%; 2027年Google TPU销售额预测: US$18.0bn; 2028年Google TPU销售额预测: US$35.0bn]
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-80f020fec8fdd0e8"></a>🟥 2026-06-22 X·@knockouttrader · UBS 目标价 · 评级目标价
  UBS now raises MediaTek’s PT to NT$6,500
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=NT$6,500
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-47bab5e0600d6ad1"></a>🟥 2026-05-12 X·@TradexWhisperer [老化中] · AI ASIC market share estimation 2028 · 市场份额/业绩指引
  By 2028, MediaTek's AI ASIC market share is estimated to reach 26%, or roughly 5 million units
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=26% · date=2028
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-5ac627a756281410"></a>🟥 2026-05-03 X·@dnystedt · ASIC project future scale · 营收预测/业绩指引
  He said the project will scale to multiple billions of US dollars
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=multiple billions of US dollars
• <a id="atom-40b3f2d5c0cfe0e6"></a>🟥 2026-04-27 X·@sssjeffpu · AR Glass 预计量产时间 · 出货量
  Targeting volume production late-2027
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: date=late-2027
• <a id="atom-4b166bbfe18b3eb8"></a>🟥 2026-07-01 X·@zephyr_z9 · 2028-2029 盈利能力展望 · 盈利能力
  MediaTek is going to make so much money in 28 & 29
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=大量 · date=2028-2029
• <a id="atom-84b37d1c24397569"></a>🟥 2026-06-29 X·@sssjeffpu · target price · 评级目标价
  we believe the Street underestimates Triggerfish and now raise TP to NT$6,420.
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=NT$6,420 · date=2026-06-30
• <a id="atom-c0a05458659fd197"></a>🟥 2026-05-01 X·@Arronwei3n · AI ASIC营收预测2028E · 营收/AI ASIC
  model MediaTek’s AI ASIC revenue to reach US$48bn (vs. US$19bn previously) in 2028E
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=US$48bn · date=2028E
  [图: 高盛（Goldman Sachs）关于联发科（MediaTek）的卖方研究报告截图，重点预测了其AI ASIC业务的增长及未来财务指标。 — 12个月目标价 (12m TP): NT$5,000.00; 当前股价 (Price): NT$2,610.00; 潜在涨幅 (Upside): 91.6%; 2028E AI ASIC营收预测: US$48b
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-6ce23748b44b7f55"></a>🟥 2026-05-01 X·@Arronwei3n · AI ASIC营收占比预测2028E · 营收/AI ASIC
  accounting for 66% of its total revenue
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=66% · date=2028E
  [图: 高盛（Goldman Sachs）关于联发科（MediaTek）的卖方研究报告截图，重点预测了其AI ASIC业务的增长及未来财务指标。 — 12个月目标价 (12m TP): NT$5,000.00; 当前股价 (Price): NT$2,610.00; 潜在涨幅 (Upside): 91.6%; 2028E AI ASIC营收预测: US$48b
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-a630c830a347968b"></a>🟥 2026-05-01 X·@Arronwei3n · EPS预测2028E · 营收/盈利能力
  12/28E 新EPS预测: NT$406.51
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=NT$406.51 · date=2028E
  [图: 高盛（Goldman Sachs）关于联发科（MediaTek）的卖方研究报告截图，重点预测了其AI ASIC业务的增长及未来财务指标。 — 12个月目标价 (12m TP): NT$5,000.00; 当前股价 (Price): NT$2,610.00; 潜在涨幅 (Upside): 91.6%; 2028E AI ASIC营收预测: US$48b
  📷 原图

🟥 空头 takes (bearish) (13)

• <a id="atom-dab88a9ac05048ef"></a>🟥 2026-06-03 X·@jukan05 · 毛利率区间 · 毛利率
  MediaTek's margin is at best in the 30% range.
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=30%
• <a id="atom-00120e2a040420c9"></a>🟥 2026-04-30 X·@dnystedt · 2026年全球智能手机出货量下降预测 · 订单需求/出货量
  sees global smartphone shipments down 15% in 2026 due to high memory chip prices
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=-15% · date=2026
• <a id="atom-120da149a4b6abea"></a>🟥 2026-06-15 X·@mingchikuo · ASIC 设计增长放缓时间预期 · 业绩指引/竞争格局
  Growth momentum in ASIC design may begin to slow in 2-3 years as the Semi-COT business model takes hold
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: date=2-3 years
• <a id="atom-59f5b62b1761d7eb"></a>🟥 2026-05-27 群 · 疑似赢得xAI ASIC设计订单 · ASIC设计/竞争格局
  MediaTek may have won xAI ASIC design (Intel 14A) which was expected to go to AVGO
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-7c444fd60b58c818"></a>🟥 2026-04-28 X·@jukan05 [老化中] · 面临负面影响 · 竞争格局/营收
  This would be a major negative for Broadcom and MTK.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-d55bc71fdb8d1670"></a>🟥 2026-04-28 X·@jukan05 [老化中] · 角色降级为IP支持/设计服务 · 竞争格局/营收
  Broadcom and MediaTek would be downgraded to IP support / design service roles.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-d2ec97e1c5056e2e"></a>🟥 2026-04-28 X·@jukan05 [老化中] · 每芯片利润率将下降 · 盈利能力/毛利率
  Broadcom/MediaTek's per-chip margin would fall
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-5a1d59626ec2c4ef"></a>🟥 2026-06-01 newsletter·JPM · 方案成本优势 · 竞争/成本
  JPM estimates MediaTek's solution could be 40-50% lower cost than Broadcom's
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=40-50% lower cost than Broadcom
• <a id="atom-92c356d0e97f1baf"></a>🟥 2026-05-04 X·@TShirtnJeans2 [老化中] · 在TPU供应链中严重延迟 · 供给产能
  the market knew MediaTek was in the TPU supply chain but it thinks the company was significantly delayed due to packaging difficulties
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-0b00302709066ead"></a>🟥 2026-06-15 X·@mingchikuo · 赢得 Google L10 机架几率 · 订单需求/竞争格局
  MediaTek chances of winning L10 are slim
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-dd92eb4744f3a91e"></a>🟥 2026-06-15 X·@mingchikuo · Musk 自研 AI 芯片机架订单时间可见性 · 订单需求/路线图
  This business still lacks clear timeline visibility
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-b2ac632a74f43f8d"></a>🟥 2026-05-25 X·@WSTAnalystApe · 股价判断 · 仓位情绪
  This MS report makes me think its the near-term peak for Mediatek
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-f194bc67a7074905"></a>🟥 2026-05-04 X·@WSTAnalystApe [老化中] · 能对标Broadcom说明ASIC门槛不高 · 竞争格局
  連 MediaTek 都能切進來直接對標 Broadcom，代表 ASIC 門檻沒那麼高
  tags: 好观点 · → daily

🟥 中性 takes (neutral) (8)

• <a id="atom-ea941f8e10e03349"></a>🟥 2026-06-30 X·@dnystedt · 新品发布预期 · 产品发布
  MediaTek is expected to unveil its next-gen 5G flagship chip, Dimensity 9600, by end-Q3
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: date=2026年Q3末
• <a id="atom-1dc3fed2151a8a60"></a>🟥 2026-04-25 X·@jukan05 [老化中] · considering micro-LED CPO · 技术路线
  companies that lack strong SerDes IP — such as MediaTek in Taiwan and mainland Chinese players — may seriously consider it
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=may consider
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-751fb4e3e791ef11"></a>🟥 2026-05-21 X·@dnystedt · 被报道可能转向三星代工 · 供应链
  Rumor: Samsung Chairman Jay Lee is on a low-key visit to Taiwan to win smartphone chip giant MediaTek as a new foundry client
  tags: 好问题 · → daily
• <a id="atom-440d89c2c8e099b3"></a>🟥 2026-05-03 X·@mingchikuo [老化中] · 主计算芯片晶圆代工加价是否影响盈利 · 盈利能力/供应链
  MediaTek's mark-up sits mostly on the parts it designs itself, so whether Google places the wafer orders for main compute die directly isn't a key swing factor for MediaTek's earnings trajectory
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  value: direction=not key
• <a id="atom-8b673a7ca79c3c45"></a>🟥 2026-05-03 X·@mingchikuo [老化中] · 作为缓冲调整台积电晶圆分配的角色 · 产能调整/供应链
  If TPU orders shift, MediaTek's scale makes it a natural buffer for TSMC to rebalance its wafer allocation mix
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-47dd01b48f38e076"></a>🟥 2026-06-15 X·@mingchikuo · 对基本面影响评估 · 业绩指引
  This is a long-term play, with immaterial impact on fundamentals over the next two years
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: date=next 2 years · direction=immaterial
• <a id="atom-bdd47e41ee056bed"></a>🟥 2026-05-15 X·@Olrak29_ · chip design strategy · 产品发布
  they're plain rebrands/bins/slightly higher clocked versions of the previous chips
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-9da63cfde0166fcf"></a>🟥 2026-05-01 X·@Arronwei3n · 22nm制程运行时间 · 技术路线/良率
  good 22nm run in 2H26
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: date=2H26

🟦 新闻流 (squawk · 4)

⏱ 时间轴 (近 20)

• 🟦 2026-07-11 · fact · 6月營收 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-11 · fact · 上半年累計營收 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-11 · fact · 第二季營收 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-11 · fact · 第二季營收表現 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-11 · forecast · AI ASIC業務展望 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-11 · forecast · 2奈米旗艦晶片上市時間 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-09 · position · 多头发起 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · ASIC 业务第二家客户 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · TPU 产品代际 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-01 · fact · Meta 作为 ASIC 客户 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-01 · forecast · TPU v8t 용량 지원 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-01 · fact · CEO stated at ISSCC 2026 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-01 · fact · EMIB-T next-gen program · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-01 · narrative · ASIC 第二客户 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-01 · forecast · TPU 参与 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-01 · forecast · 营收目标 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-01 · narrative · 与 Meta ASIC 合作状态 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-01 · narrative · 与 Meta ASIC 合作未中断 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-01 · narrative · ASIC 竞争策略 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-01 · position · 竞争格局 · → daily

← 实体目录 · 系统日志