以下部分引用 AI 总结，现阶段 AI 仍然有幻觉。请以内容的原文为准。
数据新鲜度群聊 07-14 ✓卖方 07-14 ✓Wrap 断档15天 ✕News 07-15 ✓X 断档12天 ✕页面生成 07-15
OpenAI
3695 atoms · 跨 94 天 · 首见 2026-04-02 · 最近 2026-07-10
三色: 🟦 fact 2272 · 🟥 take 1423 · stance ▲967/▼631/◆1033
叙事状态: ⚔️ contested (分歧) · 📉 放缓 · 策展近14d 7 atom · 🐦 X 近14d 164
状态只算低频策展源 (群/卖方); X firehose 仅作背景音量
来源: 群 49 · X 3587 · 卖 25 · News 1
时态: fresh:3224 · aging:389 · stale:73 · expired:9
标签: 好信源:1583 · 好观点:1277 · 好数字:836 · 好思考:318 · 好问题:87
别名 (合并): OAI · OPENAI · Open AI · openAI
🟨 AI 综合 · junior analyst 概览
展开 AI 综合 (灰色 · 非市场结论 · 点击数字溯源到原 atom)
model: deepseek-chat · 2026-07-12 · 默认折叠
OpenAI正以8500亿美元估值谋划IPO前的大规模ChatGPT改版
¹，目标是打造数十亿美元营收业务
¹，甚至有分析师预期2026年底其与Anthropic的合并ARR达1600-2000亿美元
¹。然而估值疑虑已然浮现
¹，企业端采用率上月持平且下降0.1%
¹，同时低价AI模型的压力逼迫OpenAI降价，可能威胁利润率和IPO前景
¹¹。算力方面，OpenAI发现新方法可将推理成本减半
¹，但基础设施需求或再增6.5倍，供给严重不足
¹。广告业务目标2030年超千亿美元
¹，而顾问警告零售投资者热情可能不足
¹。
🧭 拥挤度 (一人一票): ▲ 224 位作者 (KOL222 · 媒体1 · TMTB1) + 群 8 条 vs ▼ 199 位作者 (KOL199) + 群 9 条
⚖️ 多头 222/224 来自KOL
🔄 谁改主意了 (1)
同一作者对本 entity 的立场翻向 · 前后原话并排, 自行判断是真转向还是换了子话题
▸ 弱信号 1 条 (前后话题不同, 可能是子话题切换)
- MS Tom Wigg ▲→▼ (2026-06-03 → 2026-06-16, 13d)
前: <a href="#atom-a51b64b4130c5f74">"OpenAI CFO power procurement into 2032"</a>
后: <a href="#atom-fcbcbbbe191834e2">"OpenAI ChatGPT 市场份额降至 50% 以下"</a>
🔥 核心观点 · 1 个
≥2 个独立的人各自表达 take (已排除新闻 bot) · 多空按人算 · 跨语言合并
- 相对Anthropic领先地位
2 人观点 · 🟢 多 2 · X · 🥇 @georgejrjrjr ★★ (2026-06-10)
<details><summary>展开 2 人 · 2026-06-10→2026-06-10</summary>
- ▲
X @georgejrjrjr ★★ [2026-06-10]
- ▲ X @gfodor ★ [2026-06-10]
📄 广泛报道的事实 · 112 个
展开 (多人转述同一事实/数字 — 确认度高, **非独立观点**, 不标多空)
- suggests giving Trump administration 5% stake — 19 源报道 (含12快讯) ·
X
- 打算提交IPO申请 — 19 源报道 (含13快讯) ·
X
- IPO 时间 — 17 源报道 (含12快讯) ·
X
- 推理成本降低 — 10 源报道 (含7快讯) ·
X
- 计划成为俄亥俄州 10GW AI 园区租户 — 12 源报道 (含10快讯) ·
群Xnewsletter
- 考虑大幅降价以应对 Anthropic 竞争 — 11 源报道 (含9快讯) ·
群卖Xnewsletter
- 发布首个AI推理芯片Jalapeno — 8 源报道 (含5快讯) ·
X
- 估值 — 9 源报道 (含7快讯) ·
X
- acquires Ona — 7 源报道 (含5快讯) ·
X
- 平面单位距离问题突破 — 4 源报道 ·
X
- 被美国政府要求限制GPT 5.6发布 — 8 源报道 (含7快讯) ·
X
- 目标发布完全自动化AI研究员时间 — 4 源报道 (含1快讯) ·
X
- 2026年第一季度支出 — 8 源报道 (含7快讯) ·
Xnewsletter
- 准备对Apple采取法律行动 — 9 源报道 (含9快讯) ·
X
- 年化营收 — 4 源报道 (含2快讯) ·
X
- 发布 GPT-5.6 Sol, Terra 和 Luna 模型 — 4 源报道 (含2快讯) ·
X
- 员工设备被供应链攻击影响 — 4 源报道 (含2快讯) ·
X
- ChatGPT revamp plans — 5 源报道 (含3快讯) ·
X
- 计划未来三年内斥资 200 亿美元采购 Cerebras 服务器，是此前传闻的两倍 — 6 源报道 (含5快讯) ·
群X
- 与马耳他政府合作 — 3 源报道 (含1快讯) ·
X
- Q1 营收 — 6 源报道 (含5快讯) ·
Xnewsletter
- 融资规模 — 4 源报道 (含2快讯) ·
X
- GPT-5.6发布被要求分期推出 — 5 源报道 (含4快讯) ·
X
- AI agent phone 投产时间 — 3 源报道 (含1快讯) ·
X
- 推出 Guaranteed Capacity 产品 — 4 源报道 (含3快讯) ·
X
- GPT-5.6 发布预计时间 — 4 源报道 (含3快讯) ·
X
- Apple Partnership 关系恶化 — 4 源报道 (含2快讯) ·
X
- 被州检察长联盟调查 — 5 源报道 (含4快讯) ·
Xnewsletter
- 2030년까지 30GW 컴퓨팅 용량 계획 — 4 源报道 (含3快讯) ·
X
- 首次自主解决数学开放问题 — 2 源报道 ·
群X
- 政府持股谈判 — 2 源报道 ·
Xnewsletter
- ChatGPT Go 订阅用户数预测 — 4 源报道 (含3快讯) ·
群X
- 计划成为新计算公司的大股东 — 3 源报道 (含1快讯) ·
X
- ChatGPT Pro 20x 订阅价格 — 3 源报道 (含1快讯) ·
X
- 2025 年支出 — 4 源报道 (含3快讯) ·
Xnewsletter
- 模型发布节奏被美国要求调整 — 4 源报道 (含3快讯) ·
X
- 计划向美国政府移交5%股权 — 4 源报道 (含3快讯) ·
X
- GPT-5.6 Sol 模型发布 — 2 源报道 ·
X
- 2024 年营收 — 2 源报道 ·
Xnewsletter
- 自动化AI研究实习生目标时间 — 2 源报道 (含1快讯) ·
X
💢 核心分歧 (6 轴)
1. IPO 窗口抢跑 vs 收入放缓隐忧
*topic: IPO/营收 · 64 bull vs 34 bear*
🟢 bullish 侧:
- <a id="atom-8456f31dab2b1796"></a>2026-05-20
群 · IPO 提交时间 · IPO/融资窗口
OpenAI 传最快周五交表，意在抢跑 Anthropic 融资窗口
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: date=最快周五
- <a id="atom-521c3b05c9df0248"></a>2026-05-20
群 · IPO 提交时间与目标 · IPO/时间表
传 OAI 最快周五提交 S-1，目标 9 月初挂牌
tags: 好信源·好数字 · → daily
value: qty=周五 · date=9月初
- <a id="atom-980b17f2da89073c"></a>2026-06-10
卖·BofA Brian Fenske · 企业收入占比 · 营收/企业市场
企业收入占OpenAI收入超40%，预计2026年底达50%
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=>40%, projected 50% by end of 2026
- <a id="atom-a0afa61da4405691"></a>2026-06-08
卖·MS Tom Wigg · valuation · valuation/IPO
OpenAI is described as an $850bn start-up plotting a major ChatGPT overhaul before a potential IPO.
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$850bn · date=2026-06-07
- <a id="atom-9f5243ba83b2f5d4"></a>2026-04-17
X·@chatgpt21 · annualized revenue · 营收
openai & Anthropic - but even those two companies will probably close the year out at 50 billion ARR
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: qty=$50B · date=year end
[图: 一张对比数据中心资本开支与历史上重大项目（如光纤建设、州际公路、阿波罗计划等）累计支出的对比图表 — Fiber/Telecom buildout: ~$1.5T+; Data center capex: ~$930B (6 years); Interstate Highway System: $620B (37yr); US Railroads:
📷 原图
🔴 bearish 侧:
- <a id="atom-5772f94b939a3299"></a>2026-06-26
群 · 推迟 IPO 可能暗示收入放缓 · IPO/收入
OAI IPO delay may be indicative of the downturn
tags: 好问题 · → daily
- <a id="atom-d08a9cb6561f39f5"></a>2026-04-27
X·@FirstSquawk · missed revenue and user goals · 营收/用户增长 +同日1条
The WSJ reports that OpenAI missed important revenue and user goals as it accelerates preparations for a potential IPO.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-01d83215bb6227a7"></a>2026-04-27
X·@Techmeme · monthly revenue targets status · 营收
missed multiple monthly revenue targets earlier in 2026
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: date=early 2026 · direction=missed
- <a id="atom-fac9fc3735417dd5"></a>2026-04-28
X·@ScroogeCap [老化中] · 无法实现营收目标则无法证明3000亿美元计算合同合理性 · 营收/资本开支
If OAI can't hit revenue targets, they cannot justify the $300 billion+ compute contract they have with $ORCL.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: direction=cannot justify
- <a id="atom-72502dbfd7049a86"></a>2026-04-27
X·@zerohedge [老化中] · CFO担忧1.5万亿美元承诺无法支付 · 营收/融资
CFO Fears $1.5 Trillion In Commitments Can't Be Paid
tags: 好信源 · → daily
展开 79 条中性
- <a id="atom-30ab9983c10623ee"></a>2026-04-27
X·@bioshok3 · 不再从Microsoft获得收入分成 · 营收
マイクロソフトからの収益分配を受けない代わりに、他のクラウド大手を通じた事業拡大が可能になる。
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: direction=终止
- <a id="atom-da09535b375c01a6"></a>2026-04-16
X·@theinformation · 计划为ChatGPT广告制定新定价 · 营收
-OpenAI plans new pricing for ChatGPT ads | @anngehan
tags: 好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-dfe4b39a7657d59e"></a>2026-04-18
X·@bioshok3 · 今年IPO時価総額予想 · IPO/估值
・OpenAIのサム・アルトマンCEOは、今年予定されるIPO（時価総額約8500億ドル）に向かっている
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=約8500億ドル · date=今年
- <a id="atom-2528aae101182d10"></a>2026-04-20
X·@ZhihuFrontier [老化中] · 营收争议 · 营收/竞争格局
OpenAI vs Anthropic｜Revenue dispute
tags: 好观点 · → daily
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-db0803f16afa9eff"></a>2026-04-27
X·@AIStockSavvy · revenue share payments continue through 2030 · 营收
OpenAI Revenue Share Payments Continue Through 2030
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty=continuing · date=2030
2. 企业端增长停滞 vs 收入占比提升
*topic: 合作客户/营收/盈利能力 · 108 bull vs 74 bear*
🟢 bullish 侧:
- <a id="atom-06aaa190e78bfec8"></a>2026-04-27
X·@bioshok3 · 与Amazon和Google等谈判提供AI模型 · 合作客户 +同日2条
オープンAIは米アマゾン・ドット・コム、米グーグルなど他のクラウド大手と交渉し、AIモデルを外部に提供する機会を得られる。
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: date=2026-04-27
- <a id="atom-300ff6babff25037"></a>2026-04-16
X·@Sino_Market · 资本开支 · 资本开支/合作客户
OPENAI TO SPEND MORE THAN $20 BILLION ON CEREBRAS CHIPS, RECEIVE EQUITY STAKE - THE INFORMATION
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$20B+ · direction=to Cerebras chips
- <a id="atom-4c1d8a66849de68b"></a>2026-04-22
X·@bioshok3 [老化中] · 事業構造の説明：計算資源を借りてマージン付きで再販 · 盈利能力/合作客户
グレッグは、OpenAIの事業は計算資源を借りるか買って、それをマージン付きで再販する非常に単純な構造だと説明
tags: 好思考 · → daily
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-b98db6257692a33f"></a>2026-04-27
X·@jukan05 · 与 Samsung 设备硬件合作 · 合作客户/技术路线
As far as I know, OpenAI is also working with Samsung on its own device hardware.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: direction=进行中
- <a id="atom-191c76b7ec2713d0"></a>2026-04-27
X·@FirstSquawk [老化中] · 设备供应链合作方 · 合作客户
OPENAI REPORTEDLY TAPS APPLE SUPPLIERS FOR HARDWARE PUSH; MEDIATEK, QUALCOMM, LUXSHARE IN FOCUS – DIGITIMES
tags: 好信源 · → daily
🔴 bearish 侧:
- <a id="atom-8224b350b8141452"></a>2026-04-23
X·@georgejrjrjr [老旧] · reliability as partner for long-lived integration · 合作客户
I just wouldn't integrate a closed oai model anything that might need to be long-lived. they're not a reliable partner in that way and don't seem to see much value in being so.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
- <a id="atom-2ade0e8d10db9680"></a>2026-04-26
X·@boneGPT · 核心产品日亏损 · 盈利能力/资本开支
All this while he burns millions per hour on a core product that hasn't achieved profitability and isn't expected to for years
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: qty=millions per hour
- <a id="atom-07042d5e63e4663a"></a>2026-04-27
X·@fi56622380 [老化中] · 智能手机投资回报率低 · 盈利能力/产品发布
The ROI is low for making a new great/stable smartphone like iPhone.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
- <a id="atom-702f27b387de0395"></a>2026-04-27
X·@mweinbach [老化中] · deal with Microsoft quality · 合作客户
It wasn’t a good deal for either of them
tags: 好观点 · → daily
- <a id="atom-8bc2f7ac4af78381"></a>2026-04-27
X·@iamgingertrash · 亏损状态 · 盈利能力
they’re hemorrhaging money
tags: 好观点 · → daily
展开 100 条中性
- <a id="atom-56a9bb76c0f7a3c6"></a>2026-04-27
X·@bioshok3 · 与Microsoft的独家AI模型提供合同终止 · 合作客户
米オープンAIは人工知能（AI）モデルを米マイクロソフトに独占的に提供する契約を終了する。両社が27日発表した。
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: date=2026-04-27
- <a id="atom-00b44e3f9514cd05"></a>2026-04-16
X·@DrNHJ · CFO与三星讨论HBM4供应 · 供应链/合作客户
오픈AI CFO, 삼성전자와 'HBM4' 공급망 논의… 'AI 메모리 주도권' 재편 신호
tags: 好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-3ecc85e8400ed0be"></a>2026-04-16
X·@bookwormengr · 与 AMD 达成大规模多年协议，提供6 GW GPU算力 · 合作客户/供给产能
OpenAI struck a massive multi year deal with AMD (6 GW of GPU compute).
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=6 GW · date=
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-683ea4897f0d6626"></a>2026-04-16
X·@bioshok3 · 已与美国五角大楼签订AI协议 · 合作客户
OpenAI：契約締結済み。契約では「すべての合法的利用」が認められている。
tags: 好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-e07b90b41c2ed178"></a>2026-04-16
X·@FirstSquawk · 合作伙伴包括Amgen、Moderna、Allen Institute · 合作客户/模型发布
THE MODEL IS BEING ROLLED OUT TO PARTNERS INCLUDING AMGEN INC., MODERNA INC., AND THE ALLEN INSTITUTE
tags: 好信源 · → daily
3. 算力多元化对冲 vs 产能分散风险
*topic: 资本开支/数据中心算力/技术路线 · 235 bull vs 77 bear*
🟢 bullish 侧:
- <a id="atom-00f30b4d558e2af4"></a>2026-07-10
卖·MS Tom Wigg · 基准测试表现 · 技术路线/竞争
OpenAI 基准测试表现强劲
tags: 好观点 · → daily
- <a id="atom-fa848c9932e78648"></a>2026-04-28
X·@bioshok3 [老化中] · 计算资源规模优势 · 数据中心算力
OpenAIはそのかわり2社より計算資源のスケールが大きいから優位
tags: 好思考 · → daily
value: direction=大于
- <a id="atom-da6334e80d23437b"></a>2026-04-15
X·@willccbb [老化中] · Codex 使用指引 · 技术路线/产品发布
OpenAI: here’s how you can use codex to do recursive self improvement research
tags: 好观点 · → daily
- <a id="atom-1b2d95a5511b84f3"></a>2026-04-16
X·@AIStockSavvy ⭐ · 计划在Cerebras芯片上的支出 · 资本开支
OpenAI To Spend More Than $20 Billion On Cerebras Chips, Receive Equity Stake – The Information
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$20 billion+ · date=未指定
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-ab521dcea423e4b1"></a>2026-04-16
X·@Techmeme · 支付给 Cerebras 的金额 · 资本开支/订单需求
Sources: OpenAI agrees to pay Cerebras $20B+ for its server chips, double the amount previously associated with the deal, and may receive equity in Cerebras
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$20B+ · date=2026
🔴 bearish 侧:
- <a id="atom-fa81674e9dc3d163"></a>2026-04-17
X·@bubbleboi [老化中] · 关键人才流失 · 技术路线
From what I hear there isn’t anyone left at OpenAI who knows how to do a big training run.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
- <a id="atom-7481423816deaa91"></a>2026-04-17
X·@EpochAIResearch · 退出Abilene扩展计划 · 资本开支
OpenAI recently withdrew from plans to expand the site to 2.1 GW.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty=2.1 GW
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-ef4e7a5bc1a4bd4e"></a>2026-04-18
X·@bioshok3 [老化中] · Helionへの投資検討で社内不安 · 利益相反/资本开支
社内では「CEOが自分の利益になる企業への投資を自社に求めている」と不安視された
tags: 好思考 · → daily
- <a id="atom-d6759a23139be59d"></a>2026-04-25
X·@chatgpt21 [老化中] · 过去两年模型进展判断 · 技术路线
"the last two years have been surprisingly slow" said Jakub Pachocki
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: qty=surprisingly slow · date=2024-2026
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-992f2c3b702e3787"></a>2026-04-26
X·@boneGPT [老化中] · 数据中心项目陷入困境 · 资本开支/数据中心算力
Sam is trying to do data centers (not going well, huge public backlash, Oracle money, Stargate drawdown, using debt to fund it)
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: direction=negative
展开 144 条中性
- <a id="atom-4c9ee67053153821"></a>2026-04-15
X·@scaling01 · improving science law medicine · 技术路线/产品发布
OpenAI and other labs are actively trying to improve all areas of science, law and medicine
tags: 好信源·好观点 · → daily
- <a id="atom-0378013338c49d46"></a>2026-04-16
X·@bookwormengr · 自行设计定制AI芯片 Titan · 技术路线
OpenAI has partnered with Broadcom to design its own custom AI chip called "Titan."
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty= · date=
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-9454b2f25875ae18"></a>2026-04-18
X·@gfodor · initial mission regarding AI models · 技术路线
When they started OpenAI they wanted to open source AI models and were actively trying to figure out how to diffuse the technology slowly and deliberately for AI safety.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: direction=open source and diffuse slowly
- <a id="atom-9a6d608a38b7a114"></a>2026-04-18
X·@Presidentlin · 无需收购原因 · 技术路线
OAI doesn't need them anymore they have the Codex and Cline teams.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: entity=Codex and Cline teams
- <a id="atom-7011709b7313253e"></a>2026-04-18
X·@bioshok3 · Helionへの出資判断 · 资本开支
OpenAIは最終的にHelionへの出資を拒否
tags: 好信源 · → daily
4. 新模型/Codex 复苏 vs 竞争失序/人才流失
*topic: 模型发布/产品发布/竞争格局 · 109 bull vs 63 bear*
🟢 bullish 侧:
- <a id="atom-057a54961e67165f"></a>2026-04-16
X·@GabGarrett [老化中] · next model release excitement · 模型发布
I am very excited for OpenAI’s next model release. They are going to knock it out of the park.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
- <a id="atom-b8cc812740b98879"></a>2026-04-16
X·@scaling01 · 模型能力预期 · 模型发布
OpenAI will in fact have the strongest model on the market by this time next week
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: date=2026-04-23
- <a id="atom-a631d8b16c890e5f"></a>2026-04-18
X·@chatgpt21 · 即将发布新模型 · 模型发布 +同日1条
a new OpenAI model release (5.5 & 5.5 pro) on the horizon
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: date=2026-04-18以后
- <a id="atom-c3803d3d967dd7b0"></a>2026-04-18
X·@theinformation [老化中] · 计划改进ChatGPT广告 · 产品发布
OpenAI aims to improve ChatGPT ads with better targeting, self-serve tools and new pricing models
tags: 好观点 · → daily
- <a id="atom-dc0dd8e72bddf423"></a>2026-04-19
X·@emollick [老化中] · o1发布被认为是LLM时代第二重要的发布 · 模型发布
The second most important release of the LLM era (after GPT-3.5), featuring what was likely the most important chart.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
📷 原图
🔴 bearish 侧:
- <a id="atom-fcbcbbbe191834e2"></a>2026-06-16
卖·MS Tom Wigg · ChatGPT 市场份额降至 · 竞争格局/大模型
OpenAI ChatGPT 市场份额降至 50% 以下
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: qty=<50%
- <a id="atom-abe365dbef33e182"></a>2026-04-16
X·@RYANHINGSHING [老化中] · 近期表现 · 竞争格局
最近OpenAI不爭氣
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: direction=not_good
- <a id="atom-fdf749335d60993a"></a>2026-04-19
X·@Presidentlin [老化中] · 受到Zach Mueller之外的AI用户使用限制 · 用户需求/竞争格局
Except for Zach Mueller, who will use it like the PI people make PI augment itself. If OAI or Ant killed it, he can move to minimax > self hosted Qwen > self hosted fine tuned Qwen. No one else
tags: 好观点 · → daily
- <a id="atom-9ea61be5c548cbb4"></a>2026-04-20
X·@dejavucoder · 计划发布GPT-5.5增量版本 · 模型发布
if they do an incremental gpt 5.5 release after this much vague poasting
tags: 好问题 · → daily
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-cc2a578a29263cf2"></a>2026-04-21
X·@Presidentlin [老化中] · 在对话能力上追赶Anthropic的难度 · 竞争格局
Speaking might be the hardest part for OAI to crack.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
展开 164 条中性
- <a id="atom-18bad0937ea47d1f"></a>2026-04-15
X·@TechCrunch · Agents SDK 更新 · 产品发布
OpenAI updates its Agents SDK to help enterprises build safer, more capable agents
tags: 好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-cda427e03f162116"></a>2026-04-16
X·@FirstSquawk · GPT-Rosalind旨在协助科学家分析大数据集并加速研究流程 · 模型发布/产品发布
AIMING TO ASSIST SCIENTISTS IN ANALYZING LARGE DATASETS AND SPEEDING UP RESEARCH WORKFLOWS
tags: 好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-af42068219dda4c7"></a>2026-04-18
X·@Presidentlin · 2026 年 2 月代码审查地位 · 竞争格局
In February, OAI models started getting a bit more recognition, but were mostly sidelined for code review.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: qty=mostly sidelined · date=February 2026
- <a id="atom-6bd06da1dd59349e"></a>2026-04-19
X·@btibor91 · GPT-Rosalind life sciences reasoning model research preview · 模型发布
introduced GPT-Rosalind life sciences reasoning model in research preview
tags: 好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-d59b29b79b36bf6c"></a>2026-04-21
X·@Presidentlin · 4th attempt at making apps · 产品发布
This marks OAI 4th attempt at making 'apps'.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
5. 广告业务爆发 vs 成熟赛道分散精力
*topic: 产品发布/战略聚焦/管理层表态 · 114 bull vs 55 bear*
🟢 bullish 侧:
- <a id="atom-0f2b09ff8411175e"></a>2026-07-06
卖·MS Tom Wigg · 广告业务进展 · 广告业务/管理层表态
OpenAI副总裁报告'数千广告客户'涌入广告机会，但拒绝评论2030年实现1000亿美元广告收入的目标
tags: 好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-6517af0df777348b"></a>2026-04-16
X·@bioshok3 · Codex 重大更新发布 · 产品发布
OpenAIがCodexのメジャーアップデートを発表。
tags: 好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-71b0e313f766cf88"></a>2026-04-16
X·@Techmeme [老化中] · 全球政策主管表态 · 监管政策/管理层表态
OpenAI's global policy chief, Chris Lehane, calls out AI "doomers" and says "when you put some of those thoughts and ideas out there, they do have consequences"
tags: 好观点 · → daily
- <a id="atom-81375719113f9154"></a>2026-04-21
X·@stevehou [老旧] · 战略方向 · 技术路线/产品发布
OpenAI is going all in on robotics and physical AI.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
- <a id="atom-acc487169d822584"></a>2026-04-21
X·@testingcatalog · 开发ChatGPT Agent平台 · 产品发布 +同日1条
OpenAI is working on a new Agents platform for ChatGPT that allows users to create, configure, and manage their own 24/7, always-on agents.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
📷 原图
🔴 bearish 侧:
- <a id="atom-3a8474674acefdc3"></a>2026-04-26
群 ◌ [老化中] · 手机业务可能分散其核心精力 · 战略聚焦/分散精力
Thought OAI focus now is enterprise/coding. A smartphone would distract
tags: 好观点 · → daily
- <a id="atom-1078f5a4ecc62787"></a>2026-06-26
卖·MS Tom Wigg · 发布延迟 · 产品发布/竞争
OpenAI delays
tags: 好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-62e6334360a568e2"></a>2026-04-16
X·@Miles_Brundage [老化中] · Codex 功能评价 · 产品发布
Seems like it's just like, the better ChatGPT app now?
tags: 好观点 · → daily
- <a id="atom-3966f19e19bed29c"></a>2026-04-18
X·@bioshok3 · Sora縮小 · 产品发布
アルトマンが推進した動画生成アプリSoraは縮小
tags: 好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-b57bf4a474326384"></a>2026-04-23
X·@Miles_Brundage [老化中] · 产品发布日被抢风头 · 产品发布
dropping a new model/product on the same day to steal [Anthropic's, OpenAI's, GDM's] thunder on launch day
tags: 好观点 · → daily
展开 164 条中性
- <a id="atom-6417a0c909632c73"></a>2026-04-18
X·@bioshok3 [老化中] · 集中時代傾向 · 战略调整/产品发布
ピーブルズ氏とワイル氏の退社は、OpenAIの「集中時代」の兆候と言えるだろう。同社はサイドプロジェクトを削減し、製品を総合アプリ「Codex」に統合している。
tags: 好思考 · → daily
- <a id="atom-d2a28901bbba051b"></a>2026-04-15
X·@AIStockSavvy · 计划为 ChatGPT 广告制定新定价 · 定价权/产品发布
OpenAI Plans New Pricing For ChatGPT Ads
tags: 好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-a93c24fef903539c"></a>2026-04-16
X·@FirstSquawk · 发布GPT-Rosalind模型 · 模型发布/产品发布
OPENAI HAS UNVEILED GPT-ROSALIND, A NEW AI MODEL DESIGNED TO ACCELERATE DRUG DISCOVERY AND LIFE SCIENCES RESEARCH
tags: 好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-f20ed26f7ca3bb27"></a>2026-04-17
X·@iScienceLuvr · 首次广泛提供领域特定模型 · 产品发布
Correct me if I am wrong, but this the first time OpenAi is more broadly offering a domain-specific model
tags: 好思考 · → daily
value: direction=首次
- <a id="atom-b4555c2f6b2c321c"></a>2026-04-17
X·@Techmeme [老化中] · CEO 继任讨论 · 管理层表态/人事变动
some shareholders are questioning whether Sam Altman should lead OpenAI through the turbulence of an IPO and have floated Bret Taylor as a successor
tags: 好信源 · → daily
6. 估值 8500 亿支撑 vs 进退两难审视
*topic: 估值/竞争格局/融资 · 107 bull vs 121 bear*
🟢 bullish 侧:
- <a id="atom-d69fcdac29ada83c"></a>2026-04-28
群 · 融资金额用于算力 · 融资/算力投入
OpenAI 刚融资 $122B 用于算力
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$122B
- <a id="atom-8c550f35521019cd"></a>2026-04-15
X·@theinformation · 缩小与Google和Meta的差距 · 竞争格局
and close gaps with Google and Meta
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: direction=closing gaps
- <a id="atom-08be43f1a213872e"></a>2026-04-19
X·@Presidentlin · 从 Anthropic 抢占市场份额预期 · 竞争格局 +同日1条
I think OAI will steal more market share from them, it's honestly easier to steal B2B market share than to create a new one.
tags: 好观点 · → daily
- <a id="atom-751ea8906db67793"></a>2026-04-19
X·@aleabitoreddit · 融资1200亿美元 · 融资
OpenAI raised $120B+ so contagion fears are gone for another year and half
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$120B+ · direction=raised
- <a id="atom-6092d7840fd2add5"></a>2026-04-22
X·@bioshok3 [老化中] · Codex 対 Claude で有利な結果が出ているとの主張 · 竞争格局/技术路线
現在はCodex対Claudeで多くの点で有利な結果が出ている
tags: 好观点 · → daily
📷 原图
🔴 bearish 侧:
- <a id="atom-338cb6afa4bde065"></a>2026-04-22
群 · 二级市场估值 · 估值
OpenAI 二级市场估值折价至 8520 亿美元
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$852B
- <a id="atom-25283fb314c9ab50"></a>2026-04-15
X·@hungjng69679118 [老化中] · 竞争处境 · 估值
其8520 亿美元的估值正越来越多地受到自身投资方的审视…OpenAI 有可能陷入 “进退两难的境地”
tags: 好思考 · → daily
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-b28ce5bad8cd3a93"></a>2026-04-18
X·@bioshok3 [老化中] · Anthropic競合への優位性低下 · 竞争格局
AI競争ではOpenAIの優位性が低下
tags: 好观点 · → daily
- <a id="atom-f1f8ad914fed43cc"></a>2026-04-19
X·@theinformation [老化中] · tries to compete with Google and Meta · 竞争格局
OpenAI tries to compete with Google and Meta
tags: 好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-85b643662504aa98"></a>2026-04-21
X·@SashaKaletsky [老旧] · B2B劣势 · 竞争格局
OpenAI's biggest weakness in B2B: Employees' existing consumer ChatGPT usage
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: direction=weakness · item=Employees' existing consumer ChatGPT usage
展开 104 条中性
- <a id="atom-37b8f9e11214ea90"></a>2026-04-15
X·@hungjng69679118 · 估值 · 估值
其8520 亿美元的估值正越来越多地受到自身投资方的审视
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=8520亿美元
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-38157242e717b2d3"></a>2026-04-20
X·@flowersslop [老化中] · obscure truth · 技术路线/竞争格局
an obscure truth about openai that nobody will understand
tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-88c29e21a1a87188"></a>2026-04-27
X·@theinformation [老化中] · 估值 · 估值
The company’s nonprofit origins can still constrain its $852 billion future.
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$852B · date=2026-04-27
- <a id="atom-38c6eef8bc0d2a7d"></a>2026-04-28
X·@wallstengine · fundraising amount · 融资/资本开支
She just raised $122 billion so that we can continue to lean in on compute.
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$122B
- <a id="atom-82dfd6737cea8e2f"></a>2026-04-22
X·@zappstudios [老化中] · 估值对比方法建议 · 估值
Also why don’t you compare the price of each company to the valuation of its last round?
tags: 好问题 · → daily
🔗 因果传导 (causal map)
*OpenAI 在产业链上的传导关系. 边是群里/卖方陈述的因果 (非 AI 推断), 数字 = 几条 atom 支撑. 点 atom 溯源.*
🏛 常设关系 (7) — 复发陈述晋升, 常驻
- 🟢 AVGO · 需求拉动
🏛常设 · 10 次陈述 · 06-17→06-24
JPM (Harlan): AVGO FY28 20-22GW，OpenAI 7GW、Anthropic 7GW vs FY27 的 OpenAI 1.5GW、Anthropic 3.5GW
- 🟢 Cerebras · 需求拉动
🏛常设 · 6 次陈述 · 04-16→06-27
OpenAI 砸 200 亿扶持 Cerebras = 算力多元化布局加速
- 🔴 Anthropic · 竞争
🏛常设 · 3 次陈述 · 05-20→06-29
OpenAI 传最快周五交表，意在抢跑 Anthropic 融资窗口
- 🔴 Trump administration · 政策影响
🏛常设 · 9 次陈述 · 06-25→06-26
Trump admin asks OpenAI to stagger GPT-5.6 release over cyber concerns
- 🟢 AVGO · 产能依赖
🏛常设 · 6 次陈述 · 06-24→06-25
OpenAIとBroadcomはLLMに最適化された推論チップを発表
- 🔴 Apple · 竞争
🏛常设 · 3 次陈述 · 06-26→06-26
Apple's Vision Pro And Smart Glasses Chief To Leave For OpenAI
- 🔴 Anthropic · 竞争
🏛常设 · 3 次陈述 · 06-01→06-24
此举是为了抢跑 OpenAI，且在计算资源受限前锁定高估值
↓ 下游·近期陈述 (12)
- 🟢 AWS · 需求拉动 · 2 次陈述
AWS miss 或因 OpenAI 预留 Blackwell 产能
- 🟢 AVGO · 传导 · 2 次陈述
OpenAI and Broadcom unveil LLM-optimized inference chip
- 🔴 H100 · 需求拉动 · 2 次陈述
OpenAI和Anthropic等等大模型和應用公司轉為鎖定長期合約，現貨價因此下跌了
- 🔴 NVDA · 替代 · 1 次陈述
OpenAI is open to the idea of publicly sharing software it’s been developing to make its AI run on chips from different
- 🟢 AVGO · 产能依赖 · 1 次陈述
OpenAIが独自AI半導体、ブロードコムと開発 利用コスト抑制
- 🔴 AI芯片市场 · 替代 · 1 次陈述
OpenAI初の自社開発チップ製品である「Jalapeño」の設計が完了し、販売が開始されました。
- 🟢 Cerebras · 订单转移 · 1 次陈述
2026年1月，OpenAI 与 Cerebras 签下多年期大单（价值超100亿美元）
- 🟢 FRMI · 需求拉动 · 1 次陈述
Citizens: OpenAI 正就在俄亥俄州租赁 10GW 数据中心进行谈判（由 NVDA 提供资金），增加 FRMI 签署首个 11GW 综合体租约的可能性
↑ 上游·近期陈述 (11)
- 🔴 US government · 政策影响 · 2 次陈述
The US asks OpenAI to stagger the release of their new model - The Information
- 🔴 营收枯竭 · 传导 · 2 次陈述
Revenues drying up would end OpenAI & Anthropic
- 🔴 中国企业开源模型 · 替代 · 2 次陈述
American and European enterprises will increasingly replace OpenAI and Anthropic with Chinese open-weight models
- 🔴 MSFT · 竞争 · 1 次陈述
OpenAI 营收主管在备忘录中称，MSFT 合作虽是基础，但也限制了触达部分仅使用 AWS Bedrock 的企业客户
- 🟢 AMZN · 需求拉动 · 1 次陈述
自 2 月宣布与 AMZN 合作以来需求“令人震惊”
- 🔴 White House · 政策影响 · 1 次陈述
LATEST on the White House limiting the release of OpenAI's new model, 5.6: - OpenAI’s newest model (which is not out yet
- 🔴 WH, OSTP and ONCD · 政策影响 · 1 次陈述
The company did not initially plan to restrict the release of the general-use model, but changed course at the request o
- 🟢 NVDA · 需求拉动 · 1 次陈述
aggravated by the circular arrangements between the main players, such as Nvidia financing OpenAI to buy its chips
📏 估计带 (13)
*语料内对同一量的估计区间 (≥2 个估计才成带). 不判断谁对, 只陈列.*
- 营收 2026: $2B – $60B · 6 个估计 · 最新 2026-06-29 $5.7B (
X·cred5)
- 营收 2025: $13B – $13.1B · 4 个估计 · 最新 2026-06-29 $13.1B (
X·cred3)
- 营收 2026: 40% – 50% · 2 个估计 · 最新 2026-06-10 40% (
卖·cred4)
- 目标价 2026: -0.1% – 40% · 2 个估计 · 最新 2026-06-18 40% (
卖·cred4)
- 估值倍数 2026: 9 – 2,026 · 2 个估计 · 最新 2026-06-24 9 (
X·cred3)
- 目标价 2026: 2 – 3 · 2 个估计 · 最新 2026-06-26 3 (
X·cred4)
- 营收 未标期限 ⚠
混合口径: $2B – $175B · 6 个估计 · 最新 2026-06-26 $2B (X·cred5)
- 目标价 未标期限 ⚠
混合口径: 6 – 750 · 3 个估计 · 最新 2026-06-27 750 (X·cred3)
🔮 前瞻触发器 (forward triggers)
*这些 atom 指向可能 reprice 的前瞻事件 (无精确日期, 仅类型). 配合上面叙事状态看「上膛」程度.*
产品 (4 · ▲1/▼3)
- 🔴 2026-06-07 · 战略转向: 资源倾斜 Codex，称 Chat is dead
内部高管称 'Chat is dead'，公司正重组资源以突出编码产品 Codex
- 🔴 2026-05-05 · 推出AI手机的合理性质疑
What is the rational for OAI launching their AI phone? Not sure I understand
- 🟢 2026-04-27 · GPT-5.5 获得积极开发者反馈，显示复苏迹象
尽管面临 Anthropic 的激烈竞争，OAI 近期发布的 GPT-5.5 获得了积极的开发者反馈，显示出复苏迹象
- 🔴 2026-04-12 · 新模型发布对软件板块叙事的影响
Lala: OpenAI 本周将发布具备强大编程能力的新模型，软件板块叙事将愈发艰难
并购 (2 · ▲1/▼0)
- 🟢 2026-05-20 · IPO 提交时间
OpenAI 传最快周五交表，意在抢跑 Anthropic 融资窗口
- ⚪ 2026-04-02 · 以数亿美元收购科技播客 TBPN
斥资数亿美元收购科技播客 TBPN
指引 (2 · ▲2/▼0)
- 🟢 2026-06-07 · 企业客户营收占比
目前 200 万企业客户贡献约 40% 营收，预计年底升至 50%
- 🟢 2026-04-08 · 企业端收入占比目标
OpenAI CRO 预计到 2026 年底，企业端收入占比将从目前的 40% 提升至 50%。
监管/政策 (1 · ▲0/▼1)
- 🔴 2026-05-06 · 内部安全分歧曝光
OpenAI 内部安全分歧曝光 —— 或加速监管法案落地
📊 程序化变化 (近 7 天)
- 新增 3 atoms
- 本周新 topic: 广告收入目标
- 已过期 forecast: 7 条
展开过期列表
[已过期] 2025 · ChatGPT subscription momentum expectation
OPENAI ANTICIPATES THAT $8 CHATGPT SUBSCRIPTIONS WILL GAIN MOMENTUM THIS YEAR — THE INFORMATION.[已过期] 2025 · 付费ChatGPT订阅用户数预测
OpenAI projects paid ChatGPT subscribers will rise from 47M in '25[已过期] 2024年 · 模型训练成本预测
2024年预测成本: 约50亿美元[已过期] 2025 · 2025 年 compute capex
OpenAI exec says company hopes to burn $50B of somebody else's money on compute this year[已过期] 2025年 · 广告收入预期
OpenAI has told investors it expects ad revenue to hit $2.4B this year[已过期] 2025 · 2025年预测估值
2025年预测估值: 5000亿美元[已过期] 2025-06-26 · GPT-5.6 Pro 发布计划日期
I have also been told next Thursday is the planned launch date for 5.6
🟦 客观事实 (facts) (30)
- <a id="atom-a357e992cf8664ee"></a>🟦 2026-07-06
卖·MS Tom Wigg · 广告收入目标 · 广告收入目标
报道称OpenAI目标是到2030年实现1000亿美元广告收入，但副总裁拒绝评论
tags: 好信源·好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$100B by 2030
- <a id="atom-779248edfbee8df9"></a>🟦 2026-06-11
卖·MS Tom Wigg · business adoption
OpenAI business adoption fell 0.1% last month, holding flat despite the launch of Codex.
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=-0.1% · date=2026-06
- <a id="atom-a0afa61da4405691"></a>🟦 2026-06-08
卖·MS Tom Wigg · valuation · valuation/IPO
OpenAI is described as an $850bn start-up plotting a major ChatGPT overhaul before a potential IPO.
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$850bn · date=2026-06-07
- <a id="atom-a59a3c9f029d8682"></a>🟦 2026-07-02
X·@TechCrunch ⭐ · 提议捐赠股权比例 · 融资/管理层表态
OpenAI proposed donating 5% of its equity to a US sovereign wealth fund
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=5%
- <a id="atom-f68d96bfc6874dfc"></a>🟦 2026-06-30
X·@theinformation ⭐ · 发现新方法降低推理成本 · 盈利能力/技术路线
OpenAI discovers new way to cut inference costs in half
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=一半
- <a id="atom-5bae22fc76d2fb71"></a>🟦 2026-06-26
X·@OpenAI ⭐ · Terra 性能与 GPT-5.5 相当，成本降低一半 · 定价权/技术路线
Terra delivers performance competitive to GPT-5.5 at 2x lower cost
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-addc58252046c806"></a>🟦 2026-06-26
X·@OpenAI ⭐ · GPT-5.6 Sol 在 Terminal-Bench 2.1 上达到 SOTA · 技术路线/模型发布
GPT‑5.6 Sol sets a new state of the art on Terminal‑Bench 2.1, which tests complex command-line workflows requiring planning, iteration, and tool coordination
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-99960fda8d3e7a5c"></a>🟦 2026-06-26
X·@OpenAI ⭐ · 进行了超过 70 万 A100 等效 GPU 小时的自动化测试 · 技术路线/安全测试
over 700,000 A100-equivalent GPU hours of automated testing
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=700,000 A100-equivalent GPU hours · date=
- <a id="atom-acee3ec66c6417c4"></a>🟦 2026-06-26
X·@scaling01 ⭐ · GPT-5.6 Sol 定价 · 产品发布/定价权
GPT-5.6 Pricing: Sol: $5 / $30
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$5 / $30 · date=upon launch
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-4daac102febea3ff"></a>🟦 2026-06-26
X·@scaling01 ⭐ · GPT-5.6 Terra 定价 · 产品发布/定价权
Terra: $2.5 / $15
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$2.5 / $15 · date=upon launch
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-de8e08ef279d9180"></a>🟦 2026-06-26
X·@scaling01 ⭐ · GPT-5.6 Luna 定价 · 产品发布/定价权
Luna: $1 / $6
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$1 / $6 · date=upon launch
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-9552c20d175a5e96"></a>🟦 2026-06-26
X·@scaling01 ⭐ · GPT-5.6 将于 Cerebras 上线 · 产品发布/模型发布
OpenAI will also launch GPT-5.6 on Cerebras at up to 750 tokens/s in July
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: date=July 2026 · qty=750 tokens/s
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-ed5180bcd7fdd23e"></a>🟦 2026-06-24
X·@AIStockSavvy ⭐ · Jalapeno部署计划时间 · 数据中心算力
OpenAI plans deployment at gigawatt-scale data centers beginning in 2026.
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: date=2026
- <a id="atom-fb6730a21680bb54"></a>🟦 2026-06-24
X·@FundaAI ⭐ · ARR 到 2026 年 5 月 · 营收规模
OpenAI at roughly $33B
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$33B · date=2026-05
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-1f03257665e8efa4"></a>🟦 2026-06-24
X·@FundaAI ⭐ · Codex WAU 从 2026-02-05 到 2026-05-31 · 产品采用/用户增长
OpenAI’s Codex WAU rose from 1M+ on February 5, 2026 to 5M by May 31
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=1M+ 到 5M · date=2026-02-05 to 2026-05-31
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-55b51855795bd7bb"></a>🟦 2026-06-23
X·@glenngabe ⭐ · 有直接商业意图的提问比例 · 订单需求
around 20% of the questions people are asking have direct commercial intent
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=20%
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-008f571241b938a1"></a>🟦 2026-06-19
X·@ZeffMax ⭐ · AI agent用户数量 · 用户规模
the number of people using these agents is, like, the order of 10 million, 20 million maybe
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=10-20 million · date=now
- <a id="atom-f3fc0b5f841191c7"></a>🟦 2026-06-18
X·@theinformation ⭐ · 新员工数量 · 人事变动
close to 40 have joined OpenAI
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=close to 40 · from_org=Salesforce · date=2026-01-01至2026-06-18
- <a id="atom-06501d6025c54676"></a>🟦 2026-06-16
X·@theinformation ⭐ · 员工已累计出售约140亿美元私募股份 · 融资/仓位情绪
OpenAI and Anthropic employees have already sold about $14 billion in private shares
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$14B · direction=已发生
- <a id="atom-9bb98a87e3dc4b55"></a>🟦 2026-06-16
X·@AIStockSavvy ⭐ · 2026年第一季度亏损 · 盈利能力/现金流
OpenAI Burned $3.7 Billion in First Three Months of 2026
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$3.7B · date=2026年第一季度
- <a id="atom-21cd5b72e904b821"></a>🟦 2026-06-10
X·@zerohedge ⭐ · 数据中心总成本至少5000亿美元 · 资本开支
total cost of at least $500 billion if fully built out based on today’s prices for chips, labor, power and other materials
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$500 billion · date=fully built out
- <a id="atom-cf236c30322ba9ef"></a>🟦 2026-06-09
X·@DrNHJ ⭐ · 租用数据中心规模 · 数据中心算力
오픈AI, 10기가와트 규모 오하이오 데이터 센터 임대 협상 중
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=10GW · date=2026-06-10
- <a id="atom-5314b2993b10e265"></a>🟦 2026-06-08
X·@verge ⭐ · filed for IPO · 融资
OpenAI files for IPO
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-dafe113ef5231c0e"></a>🟦 2026-06-08
X·@zerohedge ⭐ · 秘密提交IPO申请 · 融资
OpenAI Files Confidentially For IPO
tags: 好信源·好数字 · → daily
value: qty= · date=
- <a id="atom-968d799903892dd6"></a>🟦 2026-06-04
X·@scaling01 ⭐ · 训练集群GPU数量 · 数据中心算力/供给产能
they trained it on their GB200 Abilene cluster, which had ~112k GPUs since Dec/Jan
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=112k · date=Dec/Jan 2025-2026
- <a id="atom-a653af565230ac6c"></a>🟦 2026-06-02
X·@Techmeme ⭐ · IPO 估值 · IPO/融资
The IPOs of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI could add up to $4T to US stock market value within months
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$4T · date=months
- <a id="atom-c76e8b4090b6a24d"></a>🟦 2026-05-28
X·@thsottiaux ⭐ · 发现了一个临时Bug · 产品发布/技术路线
The only thing that caught us off guard was a bug we discovered last minute. And we decided to not ship the said bug.
tags: 好信源·好数字 · → daily
- <a id="atom-53e1fe3e1acd4889"></a>🟦 2026-05-26
X·@HedgieMarkets ⭐ · projected USD 14 billion loss in 2026 · 盈利能力
OpenAI's projected $14 billion loss in 2026
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$14 billion · date=2026
- <a id="atom-7621b402517892a7"></a>🟦 2026-05-23
X·@scaling01 ⭐ · SWE-bench Pro 得分 · 模型基准测试
SWE-bench Pro: GPT-5.5 -> 58.6%
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=58.6% · date=2026-05-23
- <a id="atom-3f32264076e4a1b5"></a>🟦 2026-05-23
X·@scaling01 ⭐ · HLE 得分 · 模型基准测试
HLE: GPT-5.5 -> 41.4%
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=41.4% · date=2026-05-23
🟥 多头 takes (bullish) (30)
- <a id="atom-4c8a372c48cca2f9"></a>🟥 2026-06-02
X·@coatuemgmt ⭐ · 基础设施需求判断 · 资本开支/数据中心算力
What if it increases another 6.5x from here? We don't have anywhere near what's needed in terms of the infrastructure to support that.
tags: 好观点·好思考·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=6.5x · direction=increase
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-7dcb0ace20272c8b"></a>🟥 2026-06-23
X·@Techmeme ⭐ · 营收目标 · 营收预测/业绩指引
tries to build a multibillion-dollar business ahead of an IPO
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=数十亿美元 · date=IPO前
- <a id="atom-a0ea1759fb155183"></a>🟥 2026-05-14
X·@theinformation ⭐ · 节省的预估金额 · 盈利能力/营收
saving the company an estimated $97 billion if it hits its growth targets
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$97 billion · condition=if it hits its growth targets
- <a id="atom-163ee3e11a5a0aec"></a>🟥 2026-05-12
X·@theinformation ⭐ · windfall from Cerebras IPO · IPO/营收
it will give OpenAI a windfall that could eventually top $5 billion
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$5 billion · date=future
- <a id="atom-d662929a4f751642"></a>🟥 2026-06-04
X·@scaling01 ⭐ · 10T 研究模型定价目标 · 数据中心算力
with Vera Rubin these prices for 10T research models should be down to the usual $15 by the end of 2027
tags: 好数字·好思考 · → daily
value: qty=$15 · date=end of 2027
- <a id="atom-b9e3fc107edf76e7"></a>🟥 2026-05-09
X·@zephyr_z9 ⭐ · 2026 end combined ARR with Anthropic · 营收预测/业绩指引
I think OpenAI + Anthropic will end 2026 with a combined ARR of $160B-$200B
tags: 好思考·好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$160B-$200B · date=2026
- <a id="atom-ebb8e1ac0af263a6"></a>🟥 2026-04-16
X·@hungjng69679118 · 2030年广告收入预期 · 营收预测
OpenAI 2030年广告收入预期超千亿美元
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=超千亿美元 · date=2030年
- <a id="atom-4e539762f3f3e561"></a>🟥 2026-06-23
卖·MS Tom Wigg · release_plan
OpenAI is expected to release a new range of GPT models this Thursday, including GPT-5.6, 5.6 Pro, and a new bidirectional voice model.
tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=GPT-5.6, 5.6 Pro, GPT-Bidi-1 · date=2026-06-25
- <a id="atom-4a5a870bd163e11e"></a>🟥 2026-06-10
X·@flowersslop · 时间线判断：递归自我改进可能少于6个月 · 技术路线/模型发布
Sam Altman admitting OpenAI may be less than six months away from Recursive Self Improvement
tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
value: date=2026-12
- <a id="atom-18c514dacacc9193"></a>🟥 2026-06-08
X·@Techmeme · entering the third phase · 技术路线/产品发布
Sam Altman and Jakub Pachocki claim OpenAI is "entering the third phase", aiming to automate AI research, boost the economy, and give everyone a personal AGI
tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
value: date=2026-06-09
- <a id="atom-4195254a66b6dc9b"></a>🟥 2026-06-02
X·@theinformation · 高管角色 · 管理层表态/人事变动
Denise Dresser has become one of the company’s most important executives
tags: 好信源·好思考 · → daily
- <a id="atom-dfebafb8aa67895d"></a>🟥 2026-06-02
X·@theinformation · 企业销售运营变革 · 管理层表态/业绩指引
reshaping OpenAI’s enterprise sales operation
tags: 好信源·好思考 · → daily
- <a id="atom-384c876deb72e502"></a>🟥 2026-05-02
X·@borrowed_ideas · 未来可能实现2000亿美元营收 · 营收
when OAI/ANT will be generating $200 Bn revenue
tags: 好数字·好思考 · → daily
value: qty=$200 Bn · date=未来
- <a id="atom-fde5057dcb55d97c"></a>🟥 2026-06-07
群 · 企业客户营收占比 · 营收预测/企业客户
目前 200 万企业客户贡献约 40% 营收，预计年底升至 50%
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=40% → 50% · date=年底
- <a id="atom-8776da55c56dd53a"></a>🟥 2026-05-20
群 · IPO 提速可能原因 · IPO原因/融资需求/诉讼
提速可能与应对马斯克诉讼或急需新一轮 $100B 融资有关
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: qty=$100B
- <a id="atom-cc6bc25d97fc8965"></a>🟥 2026-06-30
X·@deredleritt3r · GPT-5.5 model capability · 技术路线/模型能力
According to OpenAI, GPT-5.5 could likely solve this problem if equipped with a really great harness.
tags: 好信源·好思考 · → daily
value: qty=solve unit distance problem with harness
- <a id="atom-359f2fba7b820cac"></a>🟥 2026-06-30
X·@deredleritt3r · internal model capability · 模型能力/技术路线
An internal OpenAI model (either a larger model than GPT-5.5 or a next-generation model) was able to solve the unit distance problem fully autonomously, no harness required.
tags: 好信源·好思考 · → daily
value: qty=solve unit distance problem fully autonomously
- <a id="atom-5adc0ebd9c898817"></a>🟥 2026-05-26
X·@theinformation · 竞争 IPO 资本和银行资源 · 融资/竞争格局
OpenAI may soon compete not just for AI talent and customers, but also for the same pool of IPO capital and banking resources
tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-1e5ed8aa573749d5"></a>🟥 2026-07-01
X·@johnloeber · 与Anthropic合计增加估值2万亿美元 · 估值
OpenAI and Anthropic have added $2T in combined valuation
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: qty=$2T · date=
- <a id="atom-14e66bb2011bd443"></a>🟥 2026-06-24
X·@ImAI_Eruel · 性能向上 · 产品发布/技术路线
LLM推論に特化したもので、電力辺りの性能が大幅に向上しているとのこと。
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: direction=up
- <a id="atom-70c4b87d96f55841"></a>🟥 2026-06-20
X·@bookwormengr · 全年收入预测 · 营收
they will easily cross 75-100B each
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: qty=75-100B · date=2026
- <a id="atom-4d0dbc492433a887"></a>🟥 2026-05-22
X·@DBatDad · handles 90% of circular finance in AI ecosystem · 订单需求/竞争格局
90% of the circular finance goes through them.
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: qty=90% · direction=through them
- <a id="atom-208b3822295681ee"></a>🟥 2026-05-21
X·@mameyama_kun · 上市時時価総額見通し · 市值预估
上場時には約160兆円の時価総額となる見通し。
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: qty=約160兆円
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-f67a596c993b5a89"></a>🟥 2026-05-20
X·@scaling01 ⭐ · GPT-5.5 reasoning efficiency improved · 技术路线
Since then reasoning efficiency has only improved
tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
- <a id="atom-80d4e21c5f2adb5f"></a>🟥 2026-04-26
X·@sama ⭐ [老化中] · 5.5 发布市场反应 · 产品发布/市场反馈
so fun to see the reception to 5.5!
tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
- <a id="atom-9f5243ba83b2f5d4"></a>🟥 2026-04-17
X·@chatgpt21 · annualized revenue · 营收
openai & Anthropic - but even those two companies will probably close the year out at 50 billion ARR
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: qty=$50B · date=year end
[图: 一张对比数据中心资本开支与历史上重大项目（如光纤建设、州际公路、阿波罗计划等）累计支出的对比图表 — Fiber/Telecom buildout: ~$1.5T+; Data center capex: ~$930B (6 years); Interstate Highway System: $620B (37yr); US Railroads:
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-dcdedb2e78d6c632"></a>🟥 2026-04-06
群 · IPO 时间表 · IPO时间表/管理层关系
CNBC 称 OpenAI 最早可在 Q4 IPO，Friar 和 Altman 已修复关系
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: date=Q4 2026
- <a id="atom-06fe58198a6be495"></a>🟥 2026-06-30
X·@teortaxesTex · cybersecurity sandbagging level · 技术路线
Props to OpenAI for at least not OBVIOUSLY sandbagging cybersec by 5.5, I guess.
tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=5.5
- <a id="atom-176c227c7bfa1463"></a>🟥 2026-06-10
X·@zerohedge · 数据中心规划规模 · 数据中心算力
OpenAI Eyes Massive 10-Gigawatt Ohio Data Center
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=10-Gigawatt · date=未明确
- <a id="atom-9bee706d4a88d917"></a>🟥 2026-06-08
X·@sama · 2030年营收预测 · 营收预测
grow to hundreds of billion by 2030
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=hundreds of billions · date=2030
🟥 空头 takes (bearish) (30)
- <a id="atom-cab5c20c59c909f9"></a>🟥 2026-06-13
X·@angelbrodin · GPT-5.5 match's Fable's performance at ~50% the cost · 模型性能/成本效率
GPT-5.5 match's Fable's performance at ~50% the cost.
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=50% · date=2026-06-13
- <a id="atom-22189d146c3a58c3"></a>🟥 2026-07-02
X·@zerohedge ⭐ · 社会化的无资金承诺金额 · 资本开支
$1.4 trillion in unfunded commitments to "socialize"
tags: 好数字·好思考 · → daily
value: qty=$1.4 trillion
- <a id="atom-0a55370cfa2eadd0"></a>🟥 2026-05-12
X·@verge ⭐ [老化中] · 遭受Elon Musk的心理游戏损害 · 管理层表态/竞争格局
Sam Altman says Elon Musk’s mind games were damaging OpenAI
tags: 好观点·好思考·好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-e9eada4d57584829"></a>🟥 2026-06-25
X·@negligible_cap · advisor 对零售投资者热情的判断 · 仓位情绪
OpenAI’s advisers, in conversations with the company over the past week, to caution that it may not find much enthusiasm from retail investors for its own shares
tags: 好信源·好观点 · → daily
- <a id="atom-b5aadd110f5530e3"></a>🟥 2026-06-12
X·@zerohedge · price_pressure_from_cheaper_AI_models · 定价权/竞争格局
Big companies and startups, chafing at rapidly escalating artificial intelligence costs, are increasingly turning to tools that tap in to cheaper AI models, including some from China. That’s raising pressure on industry leaders OpenAI and Anthropic to lower their prices, a prospect that could hurt their ability to grow into profitable enterprises.
tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
value: direction=pressure_to_lower_prices
- <a id="atom-ebba047067741503"></a>🟥 2026-06-10
X·@zerohedge · 价格下调可能威胁利润率 · 盈利能力/定价权
OpenAI Price Cuts Could Threaten Margins, Profits Ahead of Potential IPO, Sources Say -- WSJ
tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
value: direction=down
- <a id="atom-5be5e690e5d8a348"></a>🟥 2026-05-08
X·@zerohedge [老化中] · valuation doubts · 估值
OpenAI Valuation Doubts Loom
tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-e7246b5ae18cdc1a"></a>🟥 2026-06-16
X·@GaryMarcus · 排名预测 · 竞争格局/排名变化
Below @scaling01 is predicting OpenAI to fall to 4th place by the end of the year
tags: 好思考·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=4th · date=2026年底
- <a id="atom-835eb05773b3ca31"></a>🟥 2026-05-06
X·@theinformation [老化中] · President对Elon Musk AI能力评价 · 管理层表态
OpenAI President Greg Brockman questioned Elon Musk’s intuition for AI. "Brockman said he doesn't think Elon is very good at AI. He said he knows cars. He knows rockets, sure, but he doesn't know too much about AI."
tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-08cf684d9c80b244"></a>🟥 2026-06-25
X·@scaling01 ⭐ · pretraining instability constraint · 供给产能
they cant just jump from 2T to 10T
tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
value: qty=2T to 10T · direction=jump
- <a id="atom-046903116cee653a"></a>🟥 2026-06-16
X·@scaling01 ⭐ · 追赶能力预期 · 竞争格局
since learning about OpenAI's scaling skill issue, I no longer expect them to be ahead by end-of-year by ~1-2 months
tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
value: direction=worse
- <a id="atom-418a43ac0f451c0e"></a>🟥 2026-06-10
X·@zerohedge · 考虑大幅降价以争取Anthropic客户 · 价格动态/竞争格局
OpenAI Considers 'Drastic Price Cuts' In Pursuit Of Anthropic Customers
tags: 好信源·好问题 · → daily
- <a id="atom-5b51a36730ec59b5"></a>🟥 2026-05-15
X·@0ranguchad · 模型成本效率 · 模型发布/定价权
5.5 even comes close at >OOM lower cost is a terrible sign for compute-starved Anthropic
tags: 好观点·好数字 · → daily
value: qty=>1 OOM · direction=lower
- <a id="atom-5cc02a1d0758ebb7"></a>🟥 2026-04-28
X·@zerohedge ⭐ [老化中] · 业绩未达预期 · 业绩指引
Altman's 'Miss' Triggers Momo Massacre
tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
value: date=2026-04-28
- <a id="atom-06ffac2a8f14538d"></a>🟥 2026-04-12
群 · 新模型发布对软件板块叙事的影响 · 新模型/软件板块叙事
Lala: OpenAI 本周将发布具备强大编程能力的新模型，软件板块叙事将愈发艰难
tags: 好信源·好观点 · → daily
value: date=本周
- <a id="atom-19f82ab410b02b7d"></a>🟥 2026-06-26
X·@citrini · GPT-5.6 模型早期访问权限分配 · 监管政策/模型发布
For every SOTA model release going forward, it’s likely the government will decide which companies have access to them. Below is from OpenAI to a company that was early access for GPT 5.6 Sol
tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=政府决定 · date=未来SOTA模型发布时
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-da27fe163cd5e1be"></a>🟥 2026-06-04
X·@scaling01 · 10T 模型定价预期 · 定价权
best case $50 OAI, worse case $100 OAI
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$50-$100 · date=2026
- <a id="atom-fdb7d81f3554e8cf"></a>🟥 2026-06-20
X·@theinformation · 受到AI软件标准竞争压力 · 竞争格局
This could blunt OpenAI and Anthropic’s push to make ChatGPT and Claude the main gateway for work AI.
tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
- <a id="atom-726d3cbd087d0a32"></a>🟥 2026-06-17
X·@allTheYud · 可能通过贿赂规避模型限制 · 监管政策
Say OpenAI starts delivering bribes on the same level that Nvidia uses to ignore export restrictions on B200s, and names their next model series Cutekitten. They could easily get up to GPT 6.2 before running into trouble.
tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
- <a id="atom-e534fa9504e6c66d"></a>🟥 2026-07-01
X·@quxiaoyin · 模型层毛利率受开源模型冲击 · 竞争格局/盈利能力
without Chinese open weight models, OpenAI and anthropic would have been happy oligopolies and made trillions. Now ... Chinese free models wiping out all your margins.
tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
- <a id="atom-5d5dbba4cc63897b"></a>🟥 2026-06-13
X·@yonashav · 研究人员签证状态对访问内部模型的影响 · 人事变动/监管政策
除非情况改变，否则持有签证的OpenAI研究人员可能在未来几个月内失去访问内部模型的权限，从而无法继续工作。
tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
value: date=未来几个月
- <a id="atom-8b892830cbcac821"></a>🟥 2026-06-12
X·@teortaxesTex · 推理服务定价从5.5降至5 · 价格动态
if they drop 5.5 to $5
tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
value: qty=5.5→5 · direction=下降
- <a id="atom-71c04556be05f303"></a>🟥 2026-06-10
X·@zerohedge · token定价调整计划 · 定价权
OPENAI MULLS SIGNIFICANT CUTS TO WHAT IT CHARGES FOR TOKENS: WSJ
tags: 好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-661541037c0d180b"></a>🟥 2026-06-03
X·@Dorialexander · philanthropic funding scope · 融资/技术路线
they will fund applications/evals, data at most. Not model training
tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
- <a id="atom-b5ad08603f522389"></a>🟥 2026-05-28
X·@giordanorandone · 产品发布被推迟 · 产品发布/竞争格局
I am relatively sure that @OpenAI was caught off guard by Anthropic today and postponed the release unexpectedly.
tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
- <a id="atom-2aa4e326aa1b78ab"></a>🟥 2026-05-26
X·@dee_bosa · 定价权 · 定价权
OpenAI 和 Anthropic 的估值假设它们能维持定价权
tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-f05b57a847c01d67"></a>🟥 2026-05-24
X·@LyraInTheFlesh · 行为风格类比 · 竞争格局/产品发布
OAI is the annoying Insta 'influencer' of the AI sector. No 'achievement' or change or release is left without promoting the hell out of it vaingloriously.
tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
- <a id="atom-2563e5628ebc4ed8"></a>🟥 2026-05-19
X·@hungjng69679118 · 与苹果关系恶化，或影响ChatGPT健康产品对Apple Health数据的接入与使用 · 合作客户/竞争格局
或影响ChatGPT健康产品对Apple Health数据的接入与使用
tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
- <a id="atom-c15126b613193b76"></a>🟥 2026-05-09
X·@Techmeme [老化中] · 企业市场拓展 · 合作客户/竞争格局
OpenAI、Anthropic、Google在私募企业推动下的企业扩张给印度IT行业带来新竞争威胁
tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
- <a id="atom-f70db0b87162a31b"></a>🟥 2026-05-05
X·@OmerCheeema [老化中] · 数据中心资本开支持续亏损 · 资本开支
OpenAI is bleeding money on data centers already. Now, it wants to open another business that will bleed money on phones.
tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
value: direction=negative
🟥 中性 takes (neutral) (20)
- <a id="atom-c8431f26c380b1c0"></a>🟥 2026-06-23
X·@theinformation · IPO filing expectations · 资本开支/IPO
OpenAI’s IPO filing is expected to expose the financial mechanics behind $665 billion in future commitments for AI infrastructure.
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=$665 billion · date=future
- <a id="atom-3ecc85e8400ed0be"></a>🟥 2026-04-16
X·@bookwormengr · 与 AMD 达成大规模多年协议，提供6 GW GPU算力 · 合作客户/供给产能
OpenAI struck a massive multi year deal with AMD (6 GW of GPU compute).
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=6 GW · date=
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-0a0d2a8b7289234c"></a>🟥 2026-04-16
X·@bookwormengr · 是三星第三大HBM客户 · 合作客户/市场份额
OpenAI is now Samsung's third-largest HBM customer, behind only NVIDIA and AMD.
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=third-largest · date=
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-3304e3209276f989"></a>🟥 2026-06-07
X·@TechCrunch · 正在开发超级应用 · 产品发布/战略方向
OpenAI is still working on that ‘super app’
tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-ee4657379e5cb01e"></a>🟥 2026-06-02
X·@theinformation · IPO 可能性 · 融资/管理层表态
OpenAI pushes toward a potential IPO
tags: 好信源·好思考 · → daily
- <a id="atom-6446ccdc895202bd"></a>🟥 2026-05-26
X·@theinformation · IPO potential · IPO
A trio of potential trillion-dollar IPOs—SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic—could hit public markets within months of each other
tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
value: date=within months
- <a id="atom-0ab7d0d2db70a588"></a>🟥 2026-04-25
X·@stevehou [老化中] · 收购 TBPN 的动机 · 并购
We find out why OpenAI bought TBPN
tags: 好信源·好思考 · → daily
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-bc7eaad2945d5daf"></a>🟥 2026-05-27
X·@scaling01 ⭐ · 有ASI · AI能力/地缘政治
if OpenAI/Anthropic had ASI tomorrow our societies and governments would be insanely underprepared
tags: 好思考·好观点 · → daily
value: date=明天
- <a id="atom-e9276a8812dfab81"></a>🟥 2026-05-09
X·@Hangsiin ⭐ [老化中] · Wishlist: screenshot analysis for design refinement, 1M+ free context window, self-reflection, cheaper/faster computer-use, multi-agent collaboration · 产品发布
_-The ability to analyze screenshots, identify what feels visually off, and continuously refine the design on its own to create beautiful, aesthetically polished frontends.
-A DeepSeek-style 1M+ context window that can be used without additional fees or usage limits.
-The ability to reflect on its own mistakes or poor approaches and continuously improve by applying those lessons to future tasks.
-More advanced, cheaper, and faster computer-use capabilities, with strong proficiency in tasks requiring highly responsive interactions, including Photoshop.
-An advanced multi-agent system where multiple models collaborate to produce results that are noticeably better than what a single model could achieve alone._
tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
- <a id="atom-5df0ddc3741174aa"></a>🟥 2026-05-09
X·@Hangsiin ⭐ [老化中] · Wishlist: powerful multimodal understanding with long-context retention · 产品发布
-Powerful native multimodal understanding across images, audio, and video, with the ability to effectively retain and use contextual information from these modalities even in long-context or multi-turn conversations.
tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
- <a id="atom-adc23d1c0dcddbf2"></a>🟥 2026-05-09
X·@morqon ⭐ [老化中] · Wishlist: social intelligence and writing improvement · 产品发布
_social intelligence
and that old bugbear: writing
knowledge work needs both https://t.co/KmATv8oNBt_
tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-f4fad9cae582fac8"></a>🟥 2026-04-30
X·@theinformation [老化中] · locked in billions in future revenue sharing with Microsoft · 营收预测
Satya Nadella and Sam Altman traded concessions that loosen exclusivity while locking in billions in future revenue sharing.
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
- <a id="atom-47dfe40f69f91fb4"></a>🟥 2026-04-29
X·@mweinbach [老化中] · 每token成本 · 定价权
So that $15-$30 per token is to cover this cost
tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
value: qty=$15-$30 per token · direction=成本
- <a id="atom-2b6932631a666dc5"></a>🟥 2026-06-25
X·@theinformation · IPO prospectus · IPO
SpaceX’s rapid IPO suggests OpenAI and Anthropic could make their prospectuses public within weeks.
tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
value: direction=即将公开 · date=数周内
- <a id="atom-35b3b414ec346a2a"></a>🟥 2026-05-26
X·@blingdivinity · 训练策略添加“永不因开放问题说不能” · 模型训练策略
But instruction says never say can't because open.
tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-36ba5bef9308f2ff"></a>🟥 2026-05-15
X·@theinformation · 与 Microsoft 收益分享节省估算 · 盈利能力
saving the company an estimated $97 billion if it hits its growth targets
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$97 billion
- <a id="atom-5998420f94e179de"></a>🟥 2026-07-02
X·@DrNHJ · 提议向美国政府提供股权比例 · 融资
OpenAI가 미국 정부에 회사 지분 5%를 제공하는 방안
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty=5%
- <a id="atom-cdcd9025652e94fd"></a>🟥 2026-06-22
X·@bookwormengr · 研发支出高原因 · 研发支出/闭源生态
闭源实验室更高的研发支出是因为它们不能像开源实验室那样受益于生态系统优势
tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
- <a id="atom-1d6fa620bda0ab74"></a>🟥 2026-06-11
X·@theinformation · venture capital fundraising impact · 融资/资本开支
OpenAI and Anthropic are reshaping venture capital fundraising, forcing firms to return to limited partners sooner to finance ever-larger AI bets.
tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
value: date=ongoing · direction=reshaping
- <a id="atom-bcb64c39aa9d811b"></a>🟥 2026-06-06
X·@flowersslop · 员工工作动机 · 人事动态/仓位情绪
The ONLY reason OpenAI and Anthropic people keep working at all, when they could just cash out and quit, is to be informed contemporary witnesses.
tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
🟦 新闻流 (squawk · 40)
展开新闻流 (FirstSquawk / financialjuice / wallstengine / DeItaone — 快讯, 非原创 take)
- <a id="atom-b198c136db9bc2fb"></a>🟦 2026-07-02
X·@financialjuice · suggests giving Trump administration 5% stake · 合作客户
OpenAI suggests giving Trump administration 5% stake: FT
tags: 好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-daeaeeb156eff799"></a>🟦 2026-07-02
X·@FirstSquawk · 计划向美国政府移交5%股权 · 股权结构/监管政策
OPEN AI SAID TO HANDOVER 5% STAKE TO US GOVT: FT
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty=5% · date=2026-07-02
- <a id="atom-e30c22be4a918dc3"></a>🟦 2026-07-02
X·@FirstSquawk · 提议给特朗普政府5%股份 · 股权/合作客户
OpenAI proposes handing Trump administration 5% stake
tags: 好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-0f3f4ff11ba2774b"></a>🟦 2026-07-02
X·@wallstengine · 估值 · 估值
At OpenAI’s reported $852B valuation
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$852B · date=reported
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-a891baddb4a2155c"></a>🟦 2026-07-02
X·@wallstengine · 政府持股提议 · 监管政策
OpenAI has reportedly discussed giving the U.S. government a 5% stake
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty=5% · direction=giving to U.S. government
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-7f16fa7649109d0c"></a>🟦 2026-07-02
X·@wallstengine · 政府持股价值 · 估值
that stake would be worth about $42.6B
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: qty=$42.6B
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-2bd95d7786933045"></a>🟦 2026-07-02
X·@wallstengine · 提议结构 · 监管政策
The proposal would involve a public ownership vehicle, similar to a sovereign wealth fund
tags: 好思考 · → daily
value: direction=public ownership vehicle similar to sovereign wealth fund
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-7c74ddb3d38824b0"></a>🟦 2026-07-02
X·@wallstengine · 美国政府股权提议进展 · 监管政策
Talks are early, no deal is final, and any structure may require Congress
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: direction=early, no deal final, may require Congress
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-8b3f5c4c248040a5"></a>🟦 2026-06-30
X·@financialjuice · 推理成本降低 · 技术路线
OpenAI discovers a new way to cut inference costs in half
tags: 好数字 · → daily
value: direction=减半
- <a id="atom-89589fc7d4b80a77"></a>🟦 2026-06-30
X·@FirstSquawk ⭐ · 发现新方法降低推理成本 · 推理成本/技术路线
OPENAI DISCOVERS NEW WAY TO CUT INFERENCE COSTS IN HALF – THE INFORMATION
tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
value: qty=一半 · direction=下降
- <a id="atom-4a136f17b9a5eb6f"></a>🟦 2026-06-30
X·@wallstengine · 推理优化成本 · 成本效率
OpenAI engineers recently found inference optimizations that more than halved the cost of running existing models
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty=超过一半
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-b4cc0eb36afe0960"></a>🟦 2026-06-28
X·@FirstSquawk · 2025 年 IPO 可能性 · IPO/仓位情绪
Will OpenAI Go Public This Year? Prediction Market Odds Decline Amid Reports Of Sam Altman-Led Company Delaying IPO
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty=decline · date=2025
- <a id="atom-fb81b402bd2d6dec"></a>🟦 2026-06-28
X·@FirstSquawk 🔁2源 · hired former Uber executive Prabhjeet Singh to lead its operations in India · 人事变动
OpenAI hired former Uber executive Prabhjeet Singh to lead its operations in India, deepening its investment in one of its fastest-growing markets.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: date=2026-06-28
- <a id="atom-d1fc1ceda6cf70ad"></a>🟦 2026-06-26
X·@wallstengine · IPO可能推迟至明年 · IPO
a report that OpenAI may delay its IPO until next year
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: date=2027
[图: 软银集团（SoftBank Group Corp.）股价走势图，显示其单日下跌12.53% — ¥6,226.00 (收盘价); -¥892.00 (下跌金额); -12.53% (跌幅); ¥7,118.00 (前收盘价)]
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-5084a6e78042ec64"></a>🟦 2026-06-26
X·@DeItaone · IPO 时间线状态 · IPO
OPENAI NOT ON IPO TIMELINE YET, HASN'T BEGUN 'TESTING-WATERS' MEETINGS WITH INVESTORS- CNBC
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: date=未定
- <a id="atom-c78f8a765a357075"></a>🟦 2026-06-26
X·@FirstSquawk · IPO 时间线状态 · 融资
OPENAI NOT ON IPO TIMELINE YET, HASN'T BEGUN 'TESTING-WATERS' MEETINGS WITH INVESTORS- CNBC
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: direction=not yet
- <a id="atom-705af59c3ab4d930"></a>🟦 2026-06-26
X·@financialjuice 🔁2源 · IPO 时间线状态 · IPO
OpenAI is not on an IPO timeline yet, and hasn't begun 'testing the waters' in meetings with investors - CNBC
tags: 好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-d06c4bcd04225dbf"></a>🟦 2026-06-26
X·@wallstengine 🔁2源 · IPO timeline · IPO
OpenAI is not on an IPO timeline yet
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty=not yet · date=2026-06-26
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-d451d67406d45664"></a>🟦 2026-06-26
X·@financialjuice · GPT 5.6 rollout limited after Trump administration call · 产品发布/监管政策
OpenAI is set to limit the GPT 5.6 rollout after a call from the Trump administration - CNBC.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-31983f94a325a6c9"></a>🟦 2026-06-26
X·@DeItaone · GPT 5.6 发布限制 · 产品发布/监管政策
OPENAI SET TO LIMIT GPT 5.6 ROLLOUT AFTER CALL FROM TRUMP ADMINISTRATION: CNBC
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: direction=limit
- <a id="atom-cf9da428b08a83cf"></a>🟦 2026-06-26
X·@FirstSquawk · GPT 5.6 发布限制 · 模型发布/监管政策
OPENAI SET TO LIMIT GPT 5.6 ROLLOUT AFTER CALL FROM TRUMP ADMINISTRATION - CNBC
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: date=2026-06-26
- <a id="atom-513176d03855014a"></a>🟦 2026-06-26
X·@wallstengine · 计划限制GPT-5.6推出 · 产品发布/监管政策
OPENAI, AT THE REQUEST OF THE TRUMP ADMIN, PLANS TO LIMIT THE ROLLOUT OF GPT-5.6. - CNBC
tags: 好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-6838cf0baec957c2"></a>🟦 2026-06-26
X·@financialjuice · 开始有限预览GPT-5.6系列 · 模型发布
OpenAI starts limited preview of GPT-5.6 series
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty= · date=2026-06-26
- <a id="atom-6afd6cd4d1532263"></a>🟦 2026-06-26
X·@wallstengine · unveiled GPT-5.6 with Sol as flagship and Terra/Luna as lower-cost variants · 模型发布
OpenAI reportedly unveiled GPT-5.6, its newest model family, with Sol as the flagship model and Terra/Luna as lower-cost variants.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty= · date=2026-06-26
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-aca168c7bf858c9a"></a>🟦 2026-06-26
X·@FirstSquawk · 任命Prabhjeet Singh为印度董事总经理 · 人事变动/管理层表态
OPENAI NAMES PRABHJEET SINGH AS MANAGING DIRECTOR FOR INDIA
tags: 好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-8abd1269baf5e3a1"></a>🟦 2026-06-26
X·@wallstengine · 新员工 · 人事变动
Paul Meade will work on upcoming AI-powered devices at OpenAI
tags: 好信源 · → daily
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-3374455987a43141"></a>🟦 2026-06-25
X·@FirstSquawk · 被特朗普政府要求推迟下一代AI模型发布 · 模型发布/监管政策
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION REPORTEDLY URGES OPENAI TO DELAY ITS NEXT AI MODEL RELEASE OVER NATIONAL SECURITY CONCERNS
tags: 好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-0a3ffbe29a4135f4"></a>🟦 2026-06-25
X·@financialjuice · 模型发布节奏被美国要求调整 · 模型发布
The US asks OpenAI to stagger the release of their new model - The Information
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty=staggered · date=2026-06-25
- <a id="atom-9ddb52184fb20b37"></a>🟦 2026-06-25
X·@financialjuice · 受到要求推迟模型发布 · 产品发布
The US asks OpenAI to stagger the release of their new model
tags: 好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-686c586d92fd6e9c"></a>🟦 2026-06-25
X·@financialjuice · IPO 时间规划 · IPO
OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: date=next year
- <a id="atom-915d69b30aa40f55"></a>🟥 2026-06-25
X·@financialjuice · IPO 计划时间 · IPO
OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: date=next year (2027)
- <a id="atom-048374ea6453c524"></a>🟦 2026-06-25
X·@wallstengine · GPT-5.6 will first be released in a limited preview to a small group of partners · 模型发布
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman reportedly told staff that GPT-5.6 will be released first in a limited preview to a small group of partners after a federal government request.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-81648cbec2606143"></a>🟦 2026-06-25
X·@wallstengine · ALTman said this is not our preferred long term model for releases · 管理层表态
Altman told staff this is “not our preferred long term model” and said OpenAI will work with the government and the rest of the industry on a more sustainable process for future releases.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-8f6507b85bb941b6"></a>🟦 2026-06-25
X·@FirstSquawk · IPO 计划 · IPO
OpenAI is reportedly leaning toward delaying its IPO until next year
tags: 好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-49dce532ae5588fe"></a>🟦 2026-06-25
X·@wallstengine · IPO 时间意向 · IPO
OPENAI LEANS TOWARD DELAYING IPO UNTIL 2027, PER NYT
tags: 好观点 · → daily
value: qty=2027 · date=2027
📷 原图
- <a id="atom-20a77e76b238ed96"></a>🟦 2026-06-25
X·@FirstSquawk · GPT-5.6发布计划 · 产品发布
OPENAI TO STAGGER GPT-5.6 ROLLOUT AFTER REQUEST FROM TRUMP ADMINISTRATION. || INITIAL RELEASE WILL BE LIMITED TO 20 TRUSTED PARTNERS VIA AMAZON BEDROCK AS THE U.S. SEEKS GREATER OVERSIGHT OF FRONTIER AI MODELS.
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: qty=20 · date=2026-06-25
- <a id="atom-eabb3372f998da8d"></a>🟦 2026-06-25
X·@financialjuice · IPO 延迟至明年 · 融资
OpenAI leans toward delaying IPO until next year: NYT
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: date=next year
- <a id="atom-45ab3977bd186b3a"></a>🟦 2026-06-24
X·@FirstSquawk · 推出AI芯片 · 产品发布/技术路线
OPENAI, BROADCOM UNVEIL AI CHIP TO RUN MODELS FASTER, CHEAPER
tags: 好信源 · → daily
value: direction=faster,cheaper
- <a id="atom-db8644135319a99f"></a>🟦 2026-06-24
X·@FirstSquawk · unveiled custom AI chip developed with Broadcom · 产品发布/技术路线
OPENAI UNVEILED ITS FIRST CUSTOM AI CHIP DEVELOPED WITH BROADCOM
tags: 好信源 · → daily
- <a id="atom-b985e000aff7f0bb"></a>🟦 2026-06-23
X·@FirstSquawk · IPO前向CANNES营销人员推销ChatGPT广告 · 产品发布/融资
OPENAI PITCHES CHATGPT ADS TO CANNES MARKETERS AHEAD OF IPO – FT
tags: 好信源 · → daily
⏱ 时间轴 (近 20)
- 🟥 2026-07-10 ·
narrative · 基准测试表现 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-07-06 ·
fact · 广告业务进展 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-07-06 ·
fact · 广告收入目标 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-07-05 ·
fact · 模型发布受政府干预 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-07-03 ·
fact · GPT-5.6 출시되었으나 미국 정부 요청으로 일반에 공개되지 않음 · → daily
- 🟥 2026-07-03 ·
forecast · GPT-6 对话体验若不如 Claude 则表明无法训练出好人格或不在乎 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-07-03 ·
fact · 推迟IPO至明年 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-07-03 ·
fact · 검토중인 미국 정부 지분 제공 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-07-03 ·
fact · researcher access to GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra · → daily
- 🟦 2026-07-03 ·
fact · GPT-5.6 发布计划 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-07-03 ·
fact · GPT-5.6 计划限制额度 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-07-03 ·
fact · GPT-5.6 安全措施 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-07-03 ·
fact · was blocked for months in EU countries · → daily
- 🟥 2026-07-02 ·
narrative · 能力领先幅度 · → daily
- 🟥 2026-07-02 ·
narrative · 推理算力投入 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-07-02 ·
narrative · suggests giving Trump administration 5% stake · → daily
- 🟦 2026-07-02 ·
fact · 讨论向美国政府出售5%股份 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-07-02 ·
fact · 计划向美国政府移交5%股权 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-07-02 ·
fact · 提议给特朗普政府5%股份 · → daily
- 🟦 2026-07-02 ·
fact · 将向美国政府移交公司5%股份 · → daily
📊 板块级信号 · AI 实验室 (28)
*以下是 AI 实验室 板块的信号 (OpenAI 是成员), 非直接针对 OpenAI — 供板块上下文参考*
展开板块信号
- 🟦▲ 2026-06-27 [twitter] · RL环境相关公开岗位数
RL & post-training岗位数: 46
- 🟥▲ 2026-05-21 [twitter] · 能力进展: 6个月从初级编码员到神话级
6 months from junior coder (millions) to mythos (thousand of security researchers equivalent). 1 month from mythos to so
- 🟥▲ 2026-05-21 [twitter] · 能力进展: 1个月从神话级到解决长期未解数学难题
1 month from mythos to solving long standing important problem in math (unsolved by any human).
- 🟥▲ 2026-07-03 [twitter] · will capture the entirety of the pareto frontier
RSI implies that the frontier labs will capture the *entirety of the pareto frontier*.
- 🟥▼ 2026-06-15 [twitter] · permanently behind means <10% market share but same margins
Having a model 2x less valuable means like <10% market share, the labs get the same margins, etc.
- 🟥▲ 2026-06-16 [twitter] · 利润率想象空间
imagine what kind of margins the frontier labs have
- 🟥▼ 2026-06-01 [twitter] · 模型发布顺序策略
frontier labs keep their best models to themselves for 1-3 months to make sure it's safe; then they sell the tokens to t
- 🟥▲ 2026-07-03 [twitter] · capture entirety of pareto frontier
RSI implies that the frontier labs will capture the *entirety of the pareto frontier*. They'll be SOTA on intelligence,
📊 板块级信号 · AI labs (84)
*以下是 AI labs 板块的信号 (OpenAI 是成员), 非直接针对 OpenAI — 供板块上下文参考*
展开板块信号
- 🟥▼ 2026-06-26 [twitter] · IPO timing
all AI labs IPOing at once
- 🟥▲ 2026-04-23 [twitter] · prompting到AGI路径
AI labs are literally prompting their way to AGI
- 🟥▼ 2026-04-15 [twitter] · job loss actions
jobs losses are also predictable now that AI labs have started hill-climbing powerpoint, excel, word and specific profes
- 🟥▼ 2026-05-13 [twitter] · revenue growth will slow hard due to token optimization
when that happens rev growth for labs will slow hard
- 🟥▼ 2026-06-25 [twitter] · model release pace slowing
This does not slow development in any way, it only slows the rate at which the labs can release models, not how fast the
- 🟦▼ 2026-06-25 [twitter] · internal capability gap widening
The gap between what is available to the public, and what the labs have internally, will steadily widen from this day fo
- 🟥▼ 2026-05-27 [twitter] · become optimal destination to solve customer problems
when they become the optimal destination to solve the problems of your customers, it’s going to get ugly
- 🟥▲ 2026-05-07 [twitter] · 模型供给策略
more diversification in the next 6 months or so as various economically useful capabilities democratize effectively to c
*以下是 US AI labs 板块的信号 (OpenAI 是成员), 非直接针对 OpenAI — 供板块上下文参考*
展开板块信号
- 🟥▲ 2026-06-23 [twitter] · GW-level campuses online timeline
GW-level campuses come online
- 🟥▲ 2026-05-21 [twitter] · 算力领先地位
US Champions are really far ahead
- 🟥▲ 2026-06-23 [twitter] · Mythos-class model release timeline
Multiple US labs will release Mythos-class models with RSI potential
- 🟥▲ 2026-06-13 [twitter] · 全球用户数据来源
The US have the usage from all over the world
- 🟥▼ 2026-05-13 [twitter] · facing inability to sustain without international sales
US AI labs cannot sustain themselves without selling internationally
*以下是 AI companies 板块的信号 (OpenAI 是成员), 非直接针对 OpenAI — 供板块上下文参考*
展开板块信号
- 🟥▼ 2026-06-12 [twitter] · 投资风险
investing in AI companies has just become permanently more risky as the USG could pull the plug at any moment
- 🟥▲ 2026-06-05 [twitter] · 乐于捐赠股份
And founders / companies are all excited to give! They love the idea of direct philanthropy / private ownership of thei
- 🟥▲ 2026-06-11 [twitter] · improved margins despite open source
They’ve been able to improve margins & manage around open source anyways
- 🟥▲ 2026-05-14 [twitter] · focus on pure maths
Talking about the surge of AI research into pure maths, a friend put it a good way: "unfathomable resources from the big
- 🟥▼ 2026-07-03 [twitter] · 正在失去定价权
AI companies are losing pricing power with increasingly cost-sensitive customers
- 🟥▲ 2026-06-05 [twitter] · 预计有大公告
Expect some big announcements!
- 🟥▲ 2026-05-28 [twitter] · 合规成本可能低于从芝加哥获得的收入
the compliance costs are likely to be smaller than the revenue AI companies can make from just Chicago
- 🟥▲ 2026-05-26 [twitter] · 商业模式持续性
What’ll really happen is AI will become normalised, affordable and integrated into society once the market learns which
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