DeepSeek

1572 atoms · 跨 84 天 · 首见 2026-04-07 · 最近 2026-07-09

三色: 🟦 fact 881 · 🟥 take 691 · stance ▲398/▼184/◆450

叙事状态: ⚔️ contested (分歧) · 📈 加速 · 策展近14d 7 atom · 🐦 X 近14d 75

状态只算低频策展源 (群/卖方); X firehose 仅作背景音量

来源: 群 3 · X 1554 · 卖 8 · News 1

时态: fresh:1320 · aging:228 · stale:21 · expired:3

标签: 好观点:609 · 好数字:510 · 好信源:433 · 好思考:193 · 好问题:36

别名 (合并): DEEPSEEK · Deepseek · deepseek

🟨 AI 综合 · junior analyst 概览

🧭 拥挤度 (一人一票): ▲ 86 位作者 (KOL86) + 群 1 条 vs ▼ 62 位作者 (KOL62) + 群 1 条

⚖️ 多头 86/86 来自KOL

🔥 核心观点 · 3 个

≥2 个独立的人各自表达 take (已排除新闻 bot) · 多空按人算 · 跨语言合并

• V4 模型发布时间延迟
  1 人观点 · 🔴 空 1 · X · +1快讯 · 🥇 @teortaxesTex ★★★★ (2026-04-25)
  <details><summary>展开 2 人 · 2026-04-18→2026-04-25</summary>

• ▼ X @teortaxesTex ★★★★ [2026-04-25]
  - · X @poezhao0605 译 [2026-04-18]

• 估值
  1 人观点 · 🟢 多 1 · X · +10快讯 · 🥇 @AndrewCurran_ ★★★ (2026-05-06)
  <details><summary>展开 12 人 · 2026-05-06→2026-05-09</summary>

• · X @pstAsiatech ★★★★ [2026-05-06]
  - ▲ X @AndrewCurran_ ★★★ [2026-05-06]
  - · X @financialjuice 📢 [2026-05-06]
  - · X @FirstSquawk 📢 [2026-05-06]
  - · X @Sino_Market 📢 [2026-05-06]
  - · X @dmjk001 📢 [2026-05-06]
  - · X @jukan05 译 [2026-05-06]
  - · X @wallstengine ×2 📢 [2026-05-06]
  - ◆ X @TechCrunch 📢 [2026-05-06]
  - ▲ X @sanhuyanxishe 译 [2026-05-06]
  - ◆ X @AIStockSavvy 📢 [2026-05-09]
  - · X @theinformation 📢 [2026-05-09]

• V4.1 发布月份
  1 人观点 · 🟢 多 1 · X · +3快讯 · 🥇 @teortaxesTex ★★★★ (2026-06-10)
  <details><summary>展开 5 人 · 2026-05-08→2026-06-14</summary>

• ▲ X @teortaxesTex ★★★★ [2026-06-10]
  - · X @AiBattle_ ×2 ★★★★ [2026-05-08]
  - · X @jukan05 译 [2026-05-08]
  - · X @dmjk001 📢 [2026-05-08]
  - ▲ X @cryptopunk7213 📢 [2026-05-08]

📄 广泛报道的事实 · 37 个

💢 核心分歧 (6 轴)

1. 融资与估值：白送价 vs 开源赔钱货

*topic: 融资/估值 · 27 bull vs 9 bear*

🟢 bullish 侧:

• <a id="atom-91f2b2d38d1e75ed"></a>2026-04-17 X·@GlennLuk · 获得融资进行资本投资 · 资本开支/融资
  Ok now DeepSeek will finally have the funding it needs to make serious capital investments
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=到账 · date=2026-04-17
• <a id="atom-71f9018bbd123da9"></a>2026-04-19 X·@teortaxesTex [老旧] · 融资能力 · 融资
  DeepSeek...would have no issue raising >>>>>$300M
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=>$300M · direction=raising
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-b1474979227e02f3"></a>2026-04-19 X·@ChinaMacroFacts [老化中] · 估值 · 估值
  100亿美元估值半年前算合理，但现在就跟白送一样
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=$10B · date=2025-10
• <a id="atom-7a37db6b99045086"></a>2026-04-22 X·@zerohedge ⭐ · 估值超 $20B 腾讯阿里在谈投资 · 融资/估值
  Tencent and Alibaba are in talks to invest in DeepSeek at valuation of over $20b.
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=over $20b · date=ongoing
• <a id="atom-88321109af8c919f"></a>2026-04-23 X·@theinformation [老化中] · 估值目标 · 估值/融资
  DeepSeek is aiming for a valuation above $20 billion despite minimal revenue
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=$20 billion+ · date=2026-04-23

🔴 bearish 侧:

• <a id="atom-d6ede899ed73c46a"></a>2026-04-28 X·@teortaxesTex [老化中] · 员工薪酬状况 · 融资/人事变动 +同日1条
  Wenfeng has got to raise money asap, employees can't even afford premium… brain drain accelerating…
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=cannot afford premium · direction=low
• <a id="atom-89f6d8e4e484bf43"></a>2026-04-29 X·@ZhihuFrontier · 即将融资带来估值和利润压力 · 融资/盈利能力
  Upcoming financing brings valuation and profit pressure.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-e58b5aae5e619e95"></a>2026-05-14 X·@NathanCalvin · 梁文锋陈述问题在于高端芯片禁运而非资金 · 出口管制/融资_
  Don't take my word for it though, here is commentary Liang Wenfeng: 'We don’t have short-term fundraising plans. Our problem has never been funding; it’s the embargo on high-end chips.'
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=na
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-403ce79e29929f7b"></a>2026-06-11 X·@baoshu88 · 融资进行中并酝酿降价 · 融资/价格动态
  国内Deepseek融资马上close，为了抢市场份额正酝酿进一步降价，加推自己的harness。
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-e18e086c3ac6406b"></a>2026-06-16 X·@teortaxesTex · 投资者对无投票权股票态度 · 治理结构/估值
  no, investors are not fine with no voting rights, which is why DeepSeek is worth only $50B and not four times that.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  📷 原图

2. 技术路线：新架构减算 vs V4性能翻车

*topic: 技术路线/模型发布 · 104 bull vs 36 bear*

🟢 bullish 侧:

• <a id="atom-fdf2b31ac420d8fe"></a>2026-04-15 X·@Dorialexander [老化中] · 架构设计降低价格并构建新用例 · 技术路线
  architecture design allow to cut down prices *and* build new use cases and capabilities
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-73abc69c70025206"></a>2026-04-15 X·@scaling01 [老化中] · export controls working · 出口管制/技术路线
  idk looks like it's working with DeepSeek
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-d4c7dc44f7c67a6e"></a>2026-04-16 X·@cnfinancewatch [老化中] · 梁文峰重新称霸可能性 · 技术路线
  梁文峰重新称霸的可能性
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-e7fb35c3dd9a5bd3"></a>2026-04-17 X·@cnfinancewatch · 打破行业惯例，未向美国芯片企业开放DeepSeek V4早期访问权限 · 技术路线
  DeepSeek此次彻底打破这一行业潜规则，并未向美国芯片企业开放DeepSeek V4 的早期访问权限
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-7039bb3b6af13efe"></a>2026-04-19 X·@bookwormengr [老化中] · 新架构减少算力需求 · 技术路线/资本开支
  If they prove this has a new architecture that requires less compute & HBM that will give a new direction to the whole industry
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  value: direction=positive

🔴 bearish 侧:

• <a id="atom-8e192b5e020ba743"></a>2026-04-17 X·@aleabitoreddit [老化中] · 蒸馏Opus模型 · 技术路线
  let DeepSeek have a free pass to distill Opus
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-f96439bdbf07ba98"></a>2026-04-17 X·@cnfinancewatch · 部署平台 · 技术路线/地缘政治
  如果 DeepSeek 先在华为芯片上发布
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=华为芯片 · date=未来
• <a id="atom-7842e62000d0430e"></a>2026-04-19 X·@tuolaji2024 · V4 可能基于华为昇腾芯片及CANN异构计算架构 · 技术路线/供应链
  如果是基于华为昇腾芯片及CANN异构计算架构，那么黄仁勋最害怕的事还是来了！
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-d610a7b8102c1dd2"></a>2026-04-23 X·@ZhihuFrontier · 推理速度 · 技术路线 +同日1条
  Only around 20 TPS, noticeably slow
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=~20 TPS
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-d71f8c5213886666"></a>2026-04-24 X·@Presidentlin [老化中] · research pace preference · 战略意图/技术路线
  DeepSeek would rather slow down research for the users.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=negative

3. 竞争格局：真追平 vs 落后6个月

*topic: 竞争格局/模型发布 · 56 bull vs 13 bear*

🟢 bullish 侧:

• <a id="atom-ea67070e6e6daa44"></a>2026-04-19 X·@tuolaji2024 [老化中] · V4 跑分泄露，各项能力在 benchmark 中达到 SOTA · 模型发布/技术路线
  V4跑分泄露，跑分领先，各项能力在benchmark中对比GPT5.3、Claude Opus4.6、Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview来看均达到SOTA
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=达到SOTA
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-cfa7bfe597405f3f"></a>2026-04-19 X·@teortaxesTex [老化中] · 研究人员流失程度与其他公司对比 · 人事变动/竞争格局
  there's been some attrition, but it's not even close to the losses of OpenAI or Meta, to say nothing of XAI. I also don't notice it accelerating.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-2a69e752ed5b3883"></a>2026-04-23 X·@emollick [老化中] · 基准测试表现 · 模型发布
  Good benchmarks
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-57fcb44fcee63554"></a>2026-04-23 X·@AIWarper · model 4 release and open source status · 模型发布
  Deepseek 4 officially released and open sourced.
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-ff33d788c50428df"></a>2026-04-23 X·@zizhpan · 发布最强模型V4-Pro · 模型发布
  Meet DeepSeek-V4-Pro: our largest and most advanced model to date
  tags: 好信源 · → daily

🔴 bearish 侧:

• <a id="atom-389684da7b1fccb8"></a>2026-04-19 X·@theinformation · 下一个模型延迟 · 模型发布
  delays to its next model
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-f24102fc9816525a"></a>2026-04-20 X·@poezhao0605 · 下一代V4模型发布时间多次延期 · 模型发布/产品发布时间
  The next-generation V4 model has reportedly slipped from around the Lunar New Year to February, then March, and now late April
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: date=2026-04-20
• <a id="atom-7005a22dbd18e5ff"></a>2026-04-28 X·@teortaxesTex · 官方参考模型代码 · 模型发布/技术路线 +同日1条
  官方参考模型代码输出被损坏
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-9ccb4eed76ae839f"></a>2026-04-29 X·@_xjdr · 官方推理代码未测试 · 模型发布/技术路线_
  官方推理代码未通过主要部署代码测试
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-2662e617c544a0a7"></a>2026-05-01 X·@teortaxesTex · AA-Omniscience得分表现 · 模型发布/技术路线
  It's actually insane how bad DeepSeek does on AA-Omniscience. It actually knows a hell of a lot, but they absolutely have failed or neglected to train for this. This is 12.5% of total score. –10 points for Pro. If not for that one thing, it'd be ranked the best OS model.
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=-10 points · direction=negative

4. 人才争夺：核心研究员离职 vs 流失可控

*topic: 人事变动/竞争格局 · 53 bull vs 40 bear*

🟢 bullish 侧:

• <a id="atom-a00d64e24f85bf6d"></a>2026-04-18 X·@Presidentlin · 追赶差距 · 竞争格局
  DeepSeek will come back and be 3 months behind, and not the 6 months behind associated with Chinese models.
  tags: 好观点·好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=3 months behind · date=2026
• <a id="atom-47f1553c20f2a7e1"></a>2026-04-19 X·@teortaxesTex [老化中] · 竞争策略表现 · 竞争格局
  DeepSeek's 'Do nothing, Win' meme only hits harder now
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=强
• <a id="atom-adfb3de7b19d7e58"></a>2026-04-22 X·@jukan05 · 正在使用 NVIDIA 芯片训练新模型 · 模型发布/竞争格局
  DeepSeek upcoming models are still being trained on Nvidia chips
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: date=2026-04-22
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-1bb879f52623bf68"></a>2026-04-23 X·@ZhihuFrontier [老化中] · 长文本比较表现 · 竞争格局
  Outperformed web Gemini, which refused to process the long context
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-f8bb037fc9ec4f10"></a>2026-04-24 X·@pastaraspberry [老化中] · 模型发布优势 · 竞争格局/技术路线
  Really hope that Wenfeng will continue to mog you and beat you smug "our models are so dangerous to release, muh distillation"
  tags: 好观点 · → daily

🔴 bearish 侧:

• <a id="atom-f05c653fa1db34d1"></a>2026-04-15 X·@Presidentlin [老化中] · 被华为首发 · 竞争格局/地缘政治
  The day that DeepSeek comes out on Huawei first, that is a horrible outcome for our nation.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-8982151e298d9407"></a>2026-04-18 X·@FundaAI [老化中] · 未融资导致薪酬竞争力不足 · 竞争格局/人事变动
  DeepSeek's main issue is that it hasn't done any fundraising before, so its compensation packages can't keep up with ByteDance and other frontier labs. As a result, a significant number of its core researchers have been poached.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-a57a12f73a180147"></a>2026-04-19 X·@theinformation · 研究人员离职 · 人事变动
  The move comes after researcher departures
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-06ad281e559ac515"></a>2026-04-20 X·@poezhao0605 · 核心研究员离职 · 人事变动
  in the same period, at least 5 core researchers have left for competitors
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=5 · date=同期
• <a id="atom-f64ff96fa5af636d"></a>2026-04-24 X·@poezhao0605 · researcher departures · 人才流失/人事变动
  At least 5 senior researchers have left since late 2025. Guo Daya, a key architect behind R1's GRPO algorithm with 37,000+ citations, joined ByteDance in April.
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=at least 5

5. 产能与算力：华为昇腾破局 vs 算力瓶颈

*topic: 供给产能/数据中心算力/价格动态 · 36 bull vs 32 bear*

🟢 bullish 侧:

• <a id="atom-9061f3b542240c82"></a>2026-04-16 X·@jiqizhixin · Mega MoE 性能效果 · 数据中心算力
  The result is a shift from fragmented execution to a continuous pipeline: higher GPU utilization, less idle time, and much better scaling in multi-GPU MoE workloads.
  tags: 好信源·好思考 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-ab1b6fe437b3f71c"></a>2026-04-23 X·@TensorSlay · 芯片间带宽饱和度对比 · 价格动态 +同日1条
  inter-chip bandwidth saturation drops from 92 % (H800 mesh) to 73 % (910C torus)
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=92% vs 73% · date= · direction=下降
• <a id="atom-26b576aca334509e"></a>2026-04-23 X·@tuolaji2024 · Pro 价格预计下调 · 价格动态/产品发布
  预计下半年昇腾950超节点批量上市后，pro 的价格会大幅下调。
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  [图: DeepSeek API 新模型 V4-Pro 与 V4-Flash 的定价及参数表格 — deepseek-v4-pro输入(缓存未命中): 12元; deepseek-v4-pro输出: 24元; deepseek-v4-flash输入(缓存未命中): 1元; deepseek-v4-flash输出: 2元; 上下文长度: 1M]
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-4769558e4f2f0cf2"></a>2026-04-24 X·@bookwormengr · KV cache 削减幅度 · 技术路线/数据中心算力
  Cutting down KV cache by 90% without degrading performance (reducing HBM demand)
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=90% · direction=reducing
• <a id="atom-d56754142b1761fd"></a>2026-04-24 X·@dhtikna · next gen cluster access and mastery timeline · 技术路线/供给产能
  Things may change 2027 when Huawei next gen clusters come online and deepseek gets a hang of them
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: date=2027

🔴 bearish 侧:

• <a id="atom-3ddd0915252f46c7"></a>2026-04-20 X·@teortaxesTex [老旧] · 算力集群获取 · 供给产能
  it's relatively easy to collect an OOM bigger Nvidia cluster than what they have
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-0a85a7ac88c1a079"></a>2026-04-23 X·@tuolaji2024 · Pro 服务吞吐受限于高端算力 · 供给产能/算力瓶颈
  受限于高端算力，目前Pro的服务吞吐十分有限，会大幅下调。
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  [图: DeepSeek API 新模型 V4-Pro 与 V4-Flash 的定价及参数表格 — deepseek-v4-pro输入(缓存未命中): 12元; deepseek-v4-pro输出: 24元; deepseek-v4-flash输入(缓存未命中): 1元; deepseek-v4-flash输出: 2元; 上下文长度: 1M]
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-5cb8f519cf3b6739"></a>2026-04-23 X·@poezhao0605 · V4-Pro 价格预期 · 价格动态/数据中心算力
  Prices will drop significantly once Huawei Ascend 950 super nodes ship at scale in H2.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: date=H2 2026
  [图: DeepSeek-v4系列模型API访问价格与上下文长度对照表 — deepseek-v4-pro输入(缓存未命中): 12元; deepseek-v4-pro输出: 24元; deepseek-v4-flash输入(缓存未命中): 1元; deepseek-v4-flash输出: 2元; 上下文长度: 1M]
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-3e95e95ec9792c3a"></a>2026-04-24 X·@pstAsiatech · V4-pro吞吐量限制原因 · 供给产能/数据中心算力 +同日1条
  the throughput of V4-pro was currently limited by a shortfall in computational supply
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-bbdc81243af230e2"></a>2026-04-26 X·@poezhao0605 · 价格下降预期 · 价格动态/供给产能
  DeepSeek confirmed again: prices will drop further once Huawei Ascend 950 nodes ship at scale in H2.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: date=H2
  📷 原图

6. 开源模式：重塑行业叙事 vs 变现死胡同

*topic: 商业模式/定价权 · 18 bull vs 5 bear*

🟢 bullish 侧:

• <a id="atom-293f0f37427f4947"></a>2026-04-27 X·@zerohedge · aggressively pitching low-priced plans for just-released flagship model, intensifying competition in Chinese AI industry · 产品发布/定价权
  DeepSeek is aggressively pitching low-priced-plans for its just-released flagship model, intensifying competition across a Chinese artificial intelligence industry trying to take on Silicon Valley’s best. BBG
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-c7b4a2c2fd65c805"></a>2026-05-01 X·@Presidentlin · 可能按等待时长给予不同折扣 · 定价权 +同日1条
  Maybe they will even do something crazy and give different discounts for the wait time.
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-c070bfe896396b2e"></a>2026-05-01 X·@teortaxesTex [老化中] · 90%缓存削减可使成本进一步降低 · 定价权/供给产能
  with DS 90% cache cut, would be cheaper still
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-82cd56cf471d7f21"></a>2026-05-04 X·@teortaxesTex · cache价格不会被调高 · 定价权
  the cache price is not going to change, it's driven by fundamental low cost
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  value: direction=unchanged
• <a id="atom-4c08a4aadede6613"></a>2026-05-10 X·@teortaxesTex · 定价能力 · 定价权
  they'll be able to raise prices with impunity
  tags: 好观点 · → daily

🔴 bearish 侧:

• <a id="atom-8c3ed927ccd21c5b"></a>2026-04-17 X·@teortaxesTex [老化中] · 开源商业模式 · 商业模式
  bit hard to raise money if your whole pitch is you're going to open source
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-56a58fcc518e5a76"></a>2026-05-23 X·@dhtikna · 定价行为 · 定价权
  Dont say chinese labs, say deepseek. Other chinese labs will charge what they can get away with
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=aggressive pricing
• <a id="atom-0c952d9a25b05df6"></a>2026-05-25 X·@bfmbusiness · 定价策略描述 · 定价权/竞争格局
  "C'est une stratégie de dumping : il distribue massivement, quasi gratuitement, leurs modèles, et à côté ils font en sorte que tout le monde aille sur Alibaba car le token est très bas"
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-92777d93e5fd28c3"></a>2026-05-29 X·@hsu_steve · 对 US AI labs 的 token 定价压力 · 定价权
  Token pricing pressure on US AI labs from DeepSeek
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-1b052494b8819984"></a>2026-06-27 X·@Pier4r · API 定价 · 定价权/价格动态
  API prices are profitable but 1/2
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=亏损 · currency=USD · date=2026

🔗 因果传导 (causal map)

*DeepSeek 在产业链上的传导关系. 边是群里/卖方陈述的因果 (非 AI 推断), 数字 = 几条 atom 支撑. 点 atom 溯源.*

↓ 下游·近期陈述 (7)

• 🟢 zAI · 替代 · 2 次陈述
  When DeepSeek figured out MLA that saves KV Cache by 93%, many major labs like ZAI and MoonShot adopted it.
• 🔴 American AI models · 替代 · 1 次陈述
  move to Deep seek models from American home grown models flag that AI is China shock on steroids
• 🔴 AI stocks · 成本传导 · 1 次陈述
  The drop in prices will have to be made up somewhere (via faster adoption), otherwise doesn’t bode well for stocks (but
• 🟢 MSFT · 成本传导 · 1 次陈述
  MSFT is considering leveraging DeepSeek, a cheaper Chinese model, to support Copilot Cowork.
• 🟢 MoonShot · 替代 · 1 次陈述
  When DeepSeek figured out MLA that saves KV Cache by 93%, many major labs like ZAI and MoonShot adopted it.
• ⚪ fundraising · 传导 · 1 次陈述
  Anthropic’s Mythos preview reportedly pushed DeepSeek into a $7.4B fundraising - because they could not compete with Myt
• 🟢 存储标的 · 需求拉动 · 1 次陈述
  DeepSeek 当前的 SSD 配置和利用率已大幅提升，直接印证了存储标的的上涨逻辑

↑ 上游·近期陈述 (9)

• 🟢 Anthropic · 竞争 · 1 次陈述
  Anthropic’s Mythos spurred Deepseek fundraise
• 🟢 distillation · 传导 · 1 次陈述
  Yes, DS has good pretraining, but the reason they’re able to compete on the price-performance frontier is distillation.
• ⚪ Kimi · 产能依赖 · 1 次陈述
  Kimi and Zhipu's flagships run on DeepSeek's older designs.
• ⚪ Zhipu · 产能依赖 · 1 次陈述
  Kimi and Zhipu's flagships run on DeepSeek's older designs.
• 🔴 人才流失 · 传导 · 1 次陈述
  We know they lost good people. The hash-based router, heuristic kitchen sink approach to stability, late release, and re
• 🔴 lack of war chest · 竞争 · 1 次陈述
  Liang reportedly concluded DeepSeek could not compete at that level without a much larger war chest.
• 🔴 Anthropic's Mythos preview · 竞争 · 1 次陈述
  Anthropic’s Mythos preview reportedly pushed DeepSeek into a $7.4B fundraising - because they could not compete with Myt
• 🔴 Anthropic Mythos preview · 竞争 · 1 次陈述
  Anthropic’s Mythos preview reportedly pushed DeepSeek into a $7.4B fundraising

📏 估计带 (5)

*语料内对同一量的估计区间 (≥2 个估计才成带). 不判断谁对, 只陈列.*

• 估值倍数 未标期限 ⚠混合口径: $27,390 – $12B · 3 个估计 · 最新 2026-06-29 $12B (X·cred3)
• 份额 未标期限 ⚠混合口径: 17% – 50% · 2 个估计 · 最新 2026-06-27 50% (X·cred3)

📊 程序化变化 (近 7 天)

• 新增 1 atoms
• 本周新 topic: AI投资/市场情绪
• 已过期 forecast: 2 条

🟦 客观事实 (facts) (30)

• <a id="atom-08baaa97ac6cd624"></a>🟦 2026-06-29 X·@theinformation ⭐ · 本轮融资规模 · 融资
  DeepSeek raise $7.4B
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=$7.4B · date=2026-06-29
• <a id="atom-f4ef3292cd7c0aa5"></a>🟦 2026-06-27 X·@theinformation ⭐ · 融资 · 融资
  Exclusive: DeepSeek raised $7.4 billion after Anthropic’s Mythos preview convinced CEO Liang Wenfeng that China’s top AI lab needed far more money to compete.
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=$7.4B
• <a id="atom-f00866f03bec614a"></a>🟦 2026-06-16 X·@dmjk001 ⭐ · 本轮投资额 · 融资
  该国家基金本轮投资额为 10 亿元人民币。
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=10亿元人民币
• <a id="atom-a0cd5a2b1a2c6a4f"></a>🟦 2026-06-16 X·@dmjk001 ⭐ · 首轮融资募资金额 · 融资
  深度求索（DeepSeek）已完成首轮融资，以非传统的交易架构筹集逾 500 亿元人民币（约合 74 亿美元）。
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=500 亿元人民币 · date=
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-c279f586dc2721e4"></a>🟦 2026-06-16 X·@dmjk001 ⭐ · 首轮融资估值 · 融资/估值
  本轮融资对这家大语言模型开发商的估值超过500亿美元。
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=超过500亿美元 · date=
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-47cce971c520353d"></a>🟦 2026-06-16 X·@dmjk001 ⭐ · 投资者股份锁定期 · 融资
  该架构对所有投资者所持股份设定了五年锁定期，期间不得出售股权。
  tags: 好信源·好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=五年 · date=
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-ece9f78db91e7c17"></a>🟦 2026-06-16 X·@theinformation ⭐ · 完成新一轮融资 · 融资
  DeepSeek just closed a major $7.4B new funding round.
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=$7.4B
• <a id="atom-942959e1e7b9ecdc"></a>🟦 2026-06-07 X·@poezhao0605 ⭐ · 融资规模 · 融资
  DeepSeek is raising $7.4 billion at up to $59 billion.
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=$7.4 billion · date=2026-06-07
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-eb28633147a2a08d"></a>🟦 2026-06-07 X·@poezhao0605 ⭐ · 估值 · 估值
  DeepSeek is raising $7.4 billion at up to $59 billion.
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=$59 billion · date=2026-06-07
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-5b2c607bccfbce73"></a>🟦 2026-06-03 X·@dmjk001 ⭐ · 首轮融资拟筹金额 · 融资
  DeepSeek 首轮融资拟筹 70 亿美元
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=70亿美元
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-eaa0298febe49e1d"></a>🟦 2026-06-03 X·@Techmeme ⭐ · 第一轮融资规模 · 融资
  Sources: DeepSeek is set to raise ~$7.4B in its first funding round from investors including Tencent and CATL at a valuation of between ~$52B and ~$59B (Reuters)
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=~$7.4B · date=2026-06-03
• <a id="atom-25f185c1c2c618c6"></a>🟦 2026-06-03 X·@yicaichina ⭐ · 第一轮融资金额 · 融资
  DeepSeek is set to bag about CNY50 billion (USD7.4 billion) in its first funding round
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=CNY50B (USD7.4B) · date=第一轮
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-a27adabaef28879f"></a>🟦 2026-06-03 newsletter·Reuters ⭐ · 首轮融资 · 融资/估值
  DeepSeek slated to raise $7 billion in maiden funding round - Reuters; post-money valuation ¥350B-¥400B ($52B-$59B).
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=$7 billion, post-money valuation ¥350B-¥400B ($52B-$59B)
• <a id="atom-ff00a88500b75a23"></a>🟦 2026-05-28 X·@zerohedge ⭐ · token pricing cut · 价格动态
  DeepSeek reportedly cut token pricing by 75%
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=75% · direction=down
• <a id="atom-68a508a36bd6cc99"></a>🟦 2026-05-27 X·@tuolaji2024 ⭐ · 投前估值 · 估值/融资
  国家大基金领投DeepSeek，投前估值450亿美元。
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=450亿美元
• <a id="atom-5e330e2372470be3"></a>🟦 2026-05-26 X·@pstAsiatech ⭐ · 融资估值 · 融资/估值
  AI-model maker DeepSeek, long known for avoiding outside fundraising, began sounding out investors to raise capital at a valuation of about 300 billion yuan ($44 billion).
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=300 billion yuan ($44 billion) · date=2026-05-26
• <a id="atom-3d9665b753b27104"></a>🟦 2026-05-24 X·@rohanpaul_ai ⭐ · V4-Pro price cut magnitude · 价格动态
  Reuters has already reported a permanent 75% DeepSeek V4-Pro price cut
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=75%
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-790c8bc1abb67bfe"></a>🟦 2026-05-22 X·@dmjk001 ⭐ · 正在进行融资轮规模 · 融资
  正在进行 700 亿元人民币（100 亿美元）融资轮
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=700亿元人民币（100亿美元）
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-9db0cd7c8ed7aca2"></a>🟦 2026-05-22 X·@Techmeme ⭐ · 本轮融资规模 · 融资
  DeepSeek execs told potential investors in its ongoing $10B round that it will prioritize groundbreaking AI research over short-term commercialization
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=$10B · date=ongoing
• <a id="atom-a6d7b5a1245fad80"></a>🟦 2026-05-22 X·@dmjk001 ⭐ · 首轮融资目标金额 · 融资
  深度求索的首轮融资旨在筹集约 500 亿元人民币（约 73.5 亿美元），最早可能在下个月完成
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=500亿元（约73.5亿美元） · date=2026-06
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-f0441a5ec8308e13"></a>🟦 2026-05-22 X·@dmjk001 ⭐ · 融资后估值 · 融资
  交易完成后，深度求索的估值可能超过 3500 亿元人民币（约 514 亿美元）
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=超过3500亿元（约514亿美元） · date=2026-06
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-0759d410b0360ca1"></a>🟦 2026-05-22 X·@scaling01 ⭐ · API价格调整状态 · 价格动态
  DeepSeek-V4-Pro 模型 API 价格将于2026年5月31日结束2.5折优惠活动后，正式调整为原定价的1/4。调整后每百万token输入3元人民币，输出6元人民币
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: date=2026-05-31 · direction=down
• <a id="atom-99dd49db1f461475"></a>🟦 2026-05-08 X·@jukan05 ⭐ · 融资目标金额 · 融资
  DeepSeek 融资目标高达 500 亿人民币 (约 73.5 亿美元)
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=RMB 50 billion ($7.35 billion) · direction=seeking
• <a id="atom-3bc600f562d102db"></a>🟦 2026-05-08 X·@jukan05 ⭐ · 本轮融资历史地位 · 融资
  若完成，将成为中国AI公司历史上最大单笔融资
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=最大单笔融资
• <a id="atom-cf2289c8ec5f6189"></a>🟦 2026-05-08 X·@jukan05 ⭐ · V4.1 发布时间 · 模型发布/产品发布
  公司计划于 6 月发布 V4.1 版本
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=June 2026
• <a id="atom-9562ab9fb3a024be"></a>🟦 2026-05-08 X·@dmjk001 ⭐ [老化中] · 本轮融资额预期 · 融资
  The Information：DeepSeek希望本轮融资额高达 500 亿元人民币（约合 73.5 亿美元）
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=500 亿元人民币（约合 73.5 亿美元）
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-9b1baa947fed9eb3"></a>🟦 2026-05-08 X·@dmjk001 ⭐ [老化中] · 融资后估值预期 · 融资
  预期估值已大幅攀升 ，从最初超过 100 亿美元的预期，升至本轮融资后可能超过 3500 亿元人民币（约合 515 亿美元），包含所筹资金。
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=超过 3500 亿元人民币（约合 515 亿美元）
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-e2254b148b7c534f"></a>🟦 2026-05-08 X·@teortaxesTex ⭐ · 本轮融资规模 · 融资
  DeepSeek is targeting a fundraising size of up to RMB 50 billion, or approximately $7.35 billion, in this round. If completed, it could mark the largest single fundraising round in the history of Chi
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=RMB 50 billion / $7.35 billion · date=2026-05-08
• <a id="atom-11516873f034212b"></a>🟦 2026-05-06 X·@dmjk001 ⭐ [老化中] · 估值 · 融资/估值
  DeepSeek 估值逼近 450 亿美元
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=约450亿美元 · date=首轮融资
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-f5fa4d53b0790867"></a>🟦 2026-05-06 X·@jukan05 ⭐ · first fundraising round valuation · 融资
  FT: DeepSeek is in talks for its first fundraising round at a valuation of around $45 billion.
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=~$45 billion · date=2026
  📷 原图

🟥 多头 takes (bullish) (30)

• <a id="atom-ef89d0dea3aa28c3"></a>🟥 2026-06-27 X·@scaling01 · is not profitable at $0.87 · 定价权/盈利能力
  DeepSeek is not profitable at $0.87
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-659aa2b5a1b09ce1"></a>🟥 2026-05-06 X·@AndrewCurran_ · 估值 · 估值
  DeepSeek could be valued at up to $50 billion after its first funding round
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=$50 billion · date=first funding round
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-dacbb5c48c83efc3"></a>🟥 2026-06-30 卖·MS Tom Wigg · 对开源模型叙事的影响 · 竞争/叙事
  This hike potentially challenges the very narrative set off by DeepSeek's core offering.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-23d95771e6b8ab96"></a>🟥 2026-06-25 X·@teortaxesTex · 团队规模预期 · 团队扩张
  I expect them to exceed 1000 members soon
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=超过1000人 · date=soon
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-dc5861b44af23663"></a>🟥 2026-06-18 X·@teortaxesTex · H100等效算力预期 · 供给产能
  I expect them to have at least 100K H100-equivalents by EoY
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=100K H100-equivalents · date=2026 EoY
• <a id="atom-0db3398cef4d0b09"></a>🟥 2026-05-17 X·@yujianfeng55 · token 成本 · 定价权
  烧了两千万token，花了一毛人民币
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=2000万 token 0.1元
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-a00d64e24f85bf6d"></a>🟥 2026-04-18 X·@Presidentlin · 追赶差距 · 竞争格局
  DeepSeek will come back and be 3 months behind, and not the 6 months behind associated with Chinese models.
  tags: 好观点·好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=3 months behind · date=2026
• <a id="atom-3e8abed8d7b5edea"></a>🟥 2026-04-29 群 · SSD 配置升级实证 · SSD配置升级/存储需求
  DeepSeek 当前的 SSD 配置和利用率已大幅提升，直接印证了存储标的的上涨逻辑
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-53fd990e6ffc7d55"></a>🟥 2026-06-30 X·@teortaxesTex · built a system enabling zany experiments unparalleled · 技术路线/研发效率
  DS has built a system that affords them very zany experiments, it's unparalleled
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=unique
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-487c9762c19934bf"></a>🟥 2026-06-16 X·@scaling01 ⭐ · 未来模型参数规模预期 · 模型参数/技术路线
  also try to imagine what a 1.6T DeepSeek model will do
  tags: 好思考·好问题 · → daily
  value: qty=1.6T
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-0004878d1d63d697"></a>🟥 2026-05-09 X·@ZhihuFrontier [老化中] · KV Cache optimization groundbreaking · 推理效率/技术领先
  After running 20,000 controlled LLM inference experiments over 3 straight days, I’ve fully uncovered how groundbreaking DeepSeek’s KV Cache optimization really is.
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
  [图: 大语言模型API Token使用量与缓存命中情况的数据面板图表 — 总Token数: 50,949,110; 2026-04-28单日Token数: 21,213,830; 输入(命中缓存): 20,526,208; 输入(未命中缓存): 443,048; 输出: 244,574]
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-b9da019bfa51dc14"></a>🟥 2026-05-09 X·@ZhihuFrontier [老化中] · KV Cache hit rate impact on costs · 推理成本/缓存命中率
  its exceptional cache hit rate drastically cuts token & inference costs.
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
  [图: 大语言模型API Token使用量与缓存命中情况的数据面板图表 — 总Token数: 50,949,110; 2026-04-28单日Token数: 21,213,830; 输入(命中缓存): 20,526,208; 输入(未命中缓存): 443,048; 输出: 244,574]
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-e714ac7de9bbd656"></a>🟥 2026-04-28 X·@teortaxesTex [老旧] · TileLang adoption · 技术路线/竞争格局
  Basically TileLang is now part of Official DeepSeek Stack.
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=yes · date=current
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-5221187c2f17fc1f"></a>🟥 2026-04-26 X·@teortaxesTex [老旧] · CSA+HCA项目成效 · 技术路线
  CSA+HCA basically implements its ideas better
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-d829af480aaa4bf8"></a>🟥 2026-04-30 X·@teortaxesTex · V4.2 技术路线预测 · 技术路线
  they'll go like this: more V4Pro post-train via OPD => new very strong V4.1 generates trillions of tokens of synthetic data with knowledge base grounding => continued pretrain > OPD > V4.2
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-d924f39b2c3a6bf6"></a>🟥 2026-06-30 X·@teortaxesTex · V4 vs GLM 5.2 RL cost ratio · 技术路线/成本优势
  how much cheaper you can do RL on V4 vs GLM 5.2. It might be a >7x difference depending on the nature of the context
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=7x · comparison=cheaper per unit of compute
• <a id="atom-3ac2962a80b40bf2"></a>🟥 2026-06-30 X·@teortaxesTex · V4 base model capability makes product momentum loss affordable in medium term · 产品发布/技术路线
  Add a bigger more capable base model, and they really can afford to lose product momentum in the medium term
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: direction=better
• <a id="atom-95bce0299b6768e1"></a>🟥 2026-06-30 X·@teortaxesTex · strategic coherence for AGI trajectory · 技术路线/竞争格局
  but the big picture is strategically coherent and should afford them a better trajectory towards AGI
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: direction=positive
• <a id="atom-9b8bfc6f24e20202"></a>🟥 2026-06-27 X·@teortaxesTex · 2026年招聘立场 · 招聘力度/AGI路线
  DeepSeek job postings this season go almost unbelievably hard. They treat this as a final sprint to AGI.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: direction=aggressive
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-fd6edbd692129723"></a>🟥 2026-06-27 X·@brickroad7 · 开放模型全球采用趋势 · 技术路线/地缘政治
  Chinese open models become the global default by 2030
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: date=2030
• <a id="atom-436723b5d589012e"></a>🟥 2026-06-24 X·@teortaxesTex · 可能重新夺回行业领先地位 · 竞争格局/技术路线
  if they don't expand capacity soon DeepSeek will almost definitely reclaim its crown among AGI startups
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-c473d797a40ca349"></a>🟥 2026-06-17 X·@teortaxesTex · open-source model release advantage · 模型发布
  The Chinese sometimes have vastly superior implementations (eg nobody can beat DeepSeek at serving V4 with full cache support).
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-722c883daae3dcc4"></a>🟥 2026-06-15 X·@Alisvolatprop12 · 用户评价排名 · 竞争格局/技术路线
  KIMI >= DS/GLM >>> Minimax 정도 입니다.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-a6584de7b8697f62"></a>🟥 2026-06-07 X·@poezhao0605 · 估值变化趋势 · 估值
  DeepSeek is no longer being valued as a model lab.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-4d785d3aa3568471"></a>🟥 2026-05-22 X·@deliprao · 成本削减幅度 · 成本优势
  deepseek seems to be cutting costs by an order of magnitude than their competition.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=一个数量级
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-54894a53c17507a8"></a>🟥 2026-05-14 X·@teortaxesTex · improvement capability with higher pass@k due to less RL pressure · 技术路线
  We know that current generation DS and Kimi can improve a lot with higher k, because they've had less RL pressure.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-d11fd873c14a0d1c"></a>🟥 2026-05-09 X·@teortaxesTex · extreme multi-turn performance potential · 模型性能
  If they train it some more, it'll be monstrous for extreme multi-turn
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: direction=it'll be monstrous for extreme multi-turn
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-556d49be008c2962"></a>🟥 2026-05-08 X·@cryptopunk7213 · 模型发布预期 · 模型发布
  deepseek v4.1 is expected to release soon
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-8a7efa59f22acdc6"></a>🟥 2026-05-06 X·@teortaxesTex [老化中] · 可通过补贴算力轻松实现AGI商品化 · 资本开支/竞争格局
  AGI must be commoditized and this is easily done by subsidizing compute for DeepSeek
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-b25cabf01fe638bc"></a>🟥 2026-05-03 X·@LudditeHacker [老化中] · 用户口碑扩散观察 · 订单需求/用户采纳
  Deepseek seems to have a slow burn moment rather than the hype of last time. I talked to someone not connected to the discourse and he said he switched to deepseek completely for everything. Strong signal for me
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily

🟥 空头 takes (bearish) (30)

• <a id="atom-749eb1a2daad4cae"></a>🟥 2026-05-27 X·@notjazii · v4 Pro定价变化 · 价格动态/竞争格局
  deepseek made its v4 Pro model cheaper for good
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=降到$0.01 · date=2026-05-27
  [图: 小米 mimo-v2.5-pro 与 DeepSeek deepseek-v4-pro 的 API 价格对比表格 — mimo-v2.5-pro常规输入缓存命中价格: $0.20; deepseek-v4-pro常规输入缓存命中价格: $0.01; mimo-v2.5-pro常规输出价格: $3.00; deepseek-v4-pro常规输出价格:
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-657fc364986430d1"></a>🟥 2026-05-26 X·@Krubbled · 计算量差距 · 竞争格局/资本开支
  still 4x less then composer 2.5. it will take a while for deepseek to 4x their compute
  tags: 好数字·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=4x less then composer 2.5 · direction=still 4x less
• <a id="atom-10c8965d2e7a88fa"></a>🟥 2026-05-06 X·@teortaxesTex · V4-Pro 推理成本 · 推理成本
  so on DS it'd be ≈$0.08
  tags: 好数字·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=≈$0.08
• <a id="atom-f95d0fd1466e7f64"></a>🟥 2026-06-01 群 [老旧] · 200M 营收却能训练前沿模型存疑 · 营收/模型训练成本
  how does deepseek pay for itself? They have 200m of revenuve and are training models near the frontier (with NVDA chips)
  tags: 好问题·好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=$200M
• <a id="atom-1b052494b8819984"></a>🟥 2026-06-27 X·@Pier4r · API 定价 · 定价权/价格动态
  API prices are profitable but 1/2
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=亏损 · currency=USD · date=2026
• <a id="atom-d3b2f1089d65f573"></a>🟥 2026-06-26 X·@bdsqlsz · Wenfeng misjudged agent trend: chose general model only · 技术路线/竞争格局
  因为文锋误判了agent的风潮。24年他认为中国的saas市场不够大，写代码的程序员没有那么多，所以只选择做通用模型。
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-32528e93d5be5994"></a>🟥 2026-05-10 X·@teortaxesTex [老化中] · 训练数据可被通过提问窃取 · 数据安全/模型安全
  You Can Steal DeepSeek Training Data By Questioning This
  tags: 好信源·好问题 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-d6ede899ed73c46a"></a>🟥 2026-04-28 X·@teortaxesTex [老化中] · 员工薪酬状况 · 融资/人事变动
  Wenfeng has got to raise money asap, employees can't even afford premium… brain drain accelerating…
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=cannot afford premium · direction=low
• <a id="atom-316dd9f84c87747f"></a>🟥 2026-04-28 X·@teortaxesTex · 融资需求 · 融资
  Wenfeng has got to raise money asap
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=asap · date=2026-04-28
• <a id="atom-680fe3a68879d631"></a>🟥 2026-04-17 X·@teortaxesTex · 收入潜力低于3亿美元 · 营收预测/开源策略
  I don't see how he can get even $300M, except as charity.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=小于3亿美元 · direction=less_than
• <a id="atom-c04380a71f799b26"></a>🟥 2026-06-27 X·@teortaxesTex · 推理技术更新频率 · 技术路线
  It's almost 2 months old, they have probably moved on to the next big thing
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  value: date=2026-06-27T12:37:15
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-4fe49c51402e0341"></a>🟥 2026-07-01 X·@ChrisRMcGuire · owns so few chips · 供给产能/竞争格局
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
• <a id="atom-daa02881aa629988"></a>🟥 2026-04-30 X·@Presidentlin · impact on Anthropic timeline · 竞争格局
  DeepSeek moved us probably later this month, which will bring it to 3 months
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
• <a id="atom-d610a7b8102c1dd2"></a>🟥 2026-04-23 X·@ZhihuFrontier · 推理速度 · 技术路线
  Only around 20 TPS, noticeably slow
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=~20 TPS
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-aef80f427fbcdbaf"></a>🟥 2026-04-20 X·@ChinaMacroFacts · 年烧钱规模 · 资本开支
  50亿26年不够烧一年
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=$5B · date=2026
• <a id="atom-972e88499dc90207"></a>🟥 2026-06-27 X·@scaling01 · 推理效率排名（低于GLM） · 推理效率
  _so reasoning efficiency:

Kimi > GLM > DeepSeek_

tags: 好观点 · → daily

• <a id="atom-d1b7258d18b4dd4a"></a>🟥 2026-05-25 X·@agupta · 前沿模型定价 · 价格动态/竞争格局
  deepseek just permanently priced their frontier model at 1/30th of american labs
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=1/30th of American labs
• <a id="atom-01e7ce886f1a0e2f"></a>🟥 2026-05-25 X·@theinformation · 商业化转型驱动因素 · 资本开支
  rising computing costs push the once research-focused lab toward commercialization
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  value: direction=rising
• <a id="atom-5285cf6ac6c9749a"></a>🟥 2026-05-17 X·@Linahuaa · 自动拒绝美国本科中国申请者 · 人事变动
  DeepSeek is reportedly auto-rejecting Chinese applicants who went to America for undergraduate.
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-036372a2912307ac"></a>🟥 2026-04-26 X·@teortaxesTex [老化中] · ex-employees from frontier AI labs · 竞争格局
  no frontier lab alumni
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=no · date=2026-04-26
• <a id="atom-c3f81ab6cc9bcfed"></a>🟥 2026-04-26 X·@Presidentlin [老化中] · 当前竞争优势 · 竞争格局
  You guys are really kicking DeepSeek butts for now.
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=negative
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-0e5bc27b6882a412"></a>🟥 2026-06-23 X·@georgejrjrjr · 可能失去了优秀人才且未充分补替 · 竞争格局
  either the talent they lost may not have been adequately replaced
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-3795c20d06d6561a"></a>🟥 2026-06-23 X·@georgejrjrjr · 可能被架构问题困扰而竞争者在数据处理上领先 · 技术路线
  they stayed nerd sniped by architecture when the competition pulled ahead by focusing on data
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-8aa45c9264b57928"></a>🟥 2026-06-17 X·@yifever · 估值 · 估值
  deepseek is valued less than cursor
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=估值低于 Cursor
• <a id="atom-e18e086c3ac6406b"></a>🟥 2026-06-16 X·@teortaxesTex · 投资者对无投票权股票态度 · 治理结构/估值
  no, investors are not fine with no voting rights, which is why DeepSeek is worth only $50B and not four times that.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-87c0306d3a3cd131"></a>🟥 2026-06-16 X·@teortaxesTex · 创始人控制权与股东价值损害 · 治理结构/管理层表态
  Wenfeng maintains absolute control so that he can keep doing things destructive to shareholder value with no opposition.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=negative
• <a id="atom-403ce79e29929f7b"></a>🟥 2026-06-11 X·@baoshu88 · 融资进行中并酝酿降价 · 融资/价格动态
  国内Deepseek融资马上close，为了抢市场份额正酝酿进一步降价，加推自己的harness。
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-bc1ad50345e14fa3"></a>🟥 2026-06-10 X·@teortaxesTex · 开放源码安全风险 · 地缘政治
  This is a hopeless security posture when the adversarial nation has superior closed source AGI built to wreck your shit.
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-278fd833dde071eb"></a>🟥 2026-06-08 X·@pstAsiatech · pricing triggers price war across China's tech sector · 价格动态/竞争格局
  DeepSeek’s bargain AI triggers price war across China’s tech sector
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-7bfca6a933b08886"></a>🟥 2026-06-08 X·@pstAsiatech · pricing shock pressuring rivals and unsettling cloud providers · 价格动态/竞争格局
  DeepSeek’s pricing shock is rippling through China’s AI sector, pressuring rivals and unsettling cloud providers
  tags: 好观点 · → daily

🟥 中性 takes (neutral) (20)

• <a id="atom-d87cd20e98324883"></a>🟥 2026-06-29 X·@theinformation · CEO观点：为保持长期竞争力需大规模资金储备 · 融资/竞争格局
  If DeepSeek were to stay in the game... he really needed to build a massive war chest, at least in the realms of like tens of billions of dollars to begin with.
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=tens of billions of dollars · direction=至少
• <a id="atom-f6d426cc1ede367f"></a>🟥 2026-06-10 X·@NikoMcCarty · 相对于美国公司的时间差距 · 竞争格局
  They are content for now to remain ~6 months behind U.S. companies while maintaining a lower profile and team size.
  tags: 好观点·好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=~6 months behind
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-7fd7963fb4880901"></a>🟥 2026-04-25 X·@teortaxesTex · 下一步行动-内蒙古数据中心 · 供给产能/资本开支
  complete their Inner Mongolia datacenters, proceed to train a simplified, larger V5 with 100T+ tokens
  tags: 好观点·好数字 · → daily
• <a id="atom-1a4389864b9a332d"></a>🟥 2026-04-25 X·@teortaxesTex · IPO稀释率推测 · 融资
  Probably not at the speculated dilution (<15%)
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=<15%
• <a id="atom-321308755a00d46d"></a>🟥 2026-04-24 X·@hsu_steve · v4最终训练成本估计 · 资本开支/模型训练
  DS didn't report cost of v4 final training run, but could be $15-30M
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=$15-30M · date=v4
• <a id="atom-2afbfa2040c5641e"></a>🟥 2026-05-22 X·@zephyr_z9 · 融资规模从7B增至10B · 融资
  Looks like funding round increased from $7B to $10B
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=$10B · date=当前
• <a id="atom-4033be48aee52ff0"></a>🟥 2026-05-02 X·@zephyr_z9 [老化中] · 用户每日使用成本对比 · 模型成本/使用体验
  Using something like Claude or GPT would cost me over $600-$1000/day
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=$600-$1000 · date=daily
• <a id="atom-edc3742b202bade7"></a>🟥 2026-04-20 X·@yicaichina [老化中] · reported opening door for outside investors · 融资/人事变动
  DeepSeek's Reported Door Opening for Outside Investors May Be to Retain Top Talent, Insider Says
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-e632205e21ae13ff"></a>🟥 2026-06-30 X·@teortaxesTex · 大型稀疏MoE比同等活跃参数密集Transformer更难训练 · 技术路线
  large sparse MoEs are harder to train than a dense transformer equivalent of their active count
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-8d6d9c9342b0d59d"></a>🟥 2026-06-21 X·@teortaxesTex · GRPO label association · 技术路线/定价策略
  It's funny how associated DeepSeek is with the GRPO brand
  tags: 好思考·好观点 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-cd45ff3a87d155b8"></a>🟥 2026-06-21 X·@teortaxesTex · future PPO adoption (if needed) · 技术路线
  They will adopt modern PPO formulations if needed
  tags: 好思考·好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-32be97b8589e8b0d"></a>🟥 2026-06-14 X·@teortaxesTex · Harness 产品定位 · 产品定位
  pretty certain that DeepSeek Harness won't be a Claude Code/Codex/OpenClaw clone
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-7e21b198f4d8994a"></a>🟥 2026-06-14 X·@teortaxesTex · 招聘方向 · 人事变动
  I mean they're looking for out-there projects
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-cf3894ef87cc1c28"></a>🟥 2026-06-11 X·@ZhihuFrontier · open-source philosophy compared to Qwen · 技术路线/竞争格局
  DeepSeek is almost the opposite [of Qwen]. Its releases are not always loud... but once the paper dropped, the 58-page report explained everything clearly
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-e1df030a75d63615"></a>🟥 2026-05-27 X·@teortaxesTex · V4 项目核心挑战 · 技术路线/模型发布
  but being smart across a long task by reading a codebase, planning changes, keeping track of what you're doing across thousands of steps that's a different problem. nobody solved it by making things cheaper.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-d52f6a2a79540b7e"></a>🟥 2026-05-14 X·@NathanCalvin · 对高端芯片需求依然存在但部分被非法转移的 NVIDIA 芯片填补 · 出口管制/供给产能_
  In the time since these comments, their need remains, but has been filled partially by high performance NVIDIA chips that were unlawfully diverted.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: direction=na
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-50fb209b9ed5c4f4"></a>🟥 2026-05-06 X·@AndrewCurran_ · 融资金额 · 融资
  it is expected raise as much as $4 billion
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=$4 billion · date=first funding round
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-af343798233ee983"></a>🟥 2026-04-30 X·@teortaxesTex [老化中] · 第三方训练对知识能力的影响 · 技术路线
  third-party training predictably hurts knowledge
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-728fadd3a1a62af3"></a>🟥 2026-04-28 X·@teortaxesTex [老化中] · 模型特性 · 模型能力/竞争格局
  DeepSeek makes the most hallucinatory smart models, also horrible at pushing back on the user's bullshit
  tags: 好思考·好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=最严重
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-f5b66b00530d9c05"></a>🟥 2026-04-27 X·@teortaxesTex · 模型Mimo-V2.5小于256K上下文时表现可接受 · 技术路线
  On <256K it's probably ok
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  📷 原图

🟦 新闻流 (squawk · 39)

⏱ 时间轴 (近 20)

• 🟥 2026-07-09 · narrative · 事件类比 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-05 · narrative · 内存需求趋势 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-03 · forecast · 模型发布能力预测 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-03 · forecast · 成就预期解锁时间 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-03 · narrative · GPU 资源充足程度 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-02 · narrative · 招聘战略表明从研究实验室转向产品公司 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · 招聘Agent Harness角色 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-02 · narrative · 招聘Agent Infra角色指向平台雄心 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · 之前网站引导用户使用Claude Code访问agent · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · 招聘普通前端、后端和测试工程师 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · 计划每个部门人数翻倍 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-02 · narrative · building AGI · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-02 · narrative · 战略转向: 从研究实验室到产品公司 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · 仍在招聘普通前端、后端和测试工程师 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · popularised SPARSE attention starting with DeepSeek V3.2 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-02 · narrative · 研发策略 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · Web Traffic排名 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · AI属性 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · 运营模式 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · 招聘优先级 · → daily

📊 板块级信号 · AI labs (84)

*以下是 AI labs 板块的信号 (DeepSeek 是成员), 非直接针对 DeepSeek — 供板块上下文参考*

📊 板块级信号 · Chinese AI labs (22)

*以下是 Chinese AI labs 板块的信号 (DeepSeek 是成员), 非直接针对 DeepSeek — 供板块上下文参考*

📊 板块级信号 · AI companies (19)

*以下是 AI companies 板块的信号 (DeepSeek 是成员), 非直接针对 DeepSeek — 供板块上下文参考*

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