Trump

1789 atoms · 跨 85 天 · 首见 2026-04-01 · 最近 2026-07-03

三色: 🟦 fact 1525 · 🟥 take 264 · stance ▲229/▼257/◆835

叙事状态: 🍂 fading (退潮) · 💤 沉寂 · 策展近14d 0 atom · 🐦 X 近14d 79

状态只算低频策展源 (群/卖方); X firehose 仅作背景音量

来源: 群 20 · X 1767

时态: fresh:1623 · aging:109 · stale:57

标签: 好信源:1427 · 好观点:347 · 好数字:80 · 好思考:38 · 好问题:7

别名 (合并): TRUMP · 特朗普

🟨 AI 综合 · junior analyst 概览

🧭 拥挤度 (一人一票): ▲ 19 位作者 (KOL19) vs ▼ 21 位作者 (KOL21) + 群 3 条

⚖️ 空头 21/21 来自KOL

📄 广泛报道的事实 · 131 个

💢 核心分歧 (3 轴)

1. 关税威胁 强硬施压 vs 谈判筹码

*topic: 地缘政治/谈判进展/能源/关税 · 116 bull vs 194 bear*

🟢 bullish 侧:

• <a id="atom-bb60d3e87c033bf6"></a>2026-04-17 X·@hungjng69679118 [老化中] · 迫切希望结束战争或接受更多妥协 · 地缘政治
  海湾地区官员：特朗普迫切希望结束战争，或将接受更多妥协。
  tags: 好信源·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-dd8aa31c111c484a"></a>2026-04-19 X·@financialjuice · planned travel to Islamabad · 地缘政治/谈判进程
  Trump could travel to Islamabad for joint meeting with Iran's President to sign "Islamabad Declaration" if talks advance
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: date=2026-04-23
• <a id="atom-4470f219164fc9f7"></a>2026-04-22 X·@FirstSquawk · extended ceasefire · 地缘政治
  DONALD TRUMP'S CEASEFIRE EXTENSION
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-11d9690ad1948688"></a>2026-04-23 X·@FirstSquawk [老化中] · extending ceasefire · 地缘政治
  Trump extending the ceasefire is an important step to reduce tensions
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=positive
• <a id="atom-533eda1df77805bd"></a>2026-04-25 X·@DeItaone · stated U.S. holds all the cards · 地缘政治
  the U.S. “holds all the cards”
  tags: 好信源 · → daily

🔴 bearish 侧:

• <a id="atom-9a86dde666b73bdd"></a>2026-04-06 群 [老旧] · 对伊朗回应的评价 · 伊朗回应/谈判进展
  Trump 称伊朗回应'不够好'，不太可能再次延期
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-61869679c9eac785"></a>2026-04-17 X·@AIStockSavvy · naval blockade policy · 地缘政治
  Trump: Naval Blockade Will Remain In Full Force And Effect
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=remain in full force and effect
• <a id="atom-9585cfb35165b47a"></a>2026-04-19 X·@teortaxesTex · public statement on trade stance · 关税/地缘政治
  Trump says "NO MORE MR. NICE GUY"
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=hawkish
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-918ada51f308dab6"></a>2026-04-19 X·@KobeissiLetter · 声明若未达成协议将摧毁伊朗桥梁和电厂 · 地缘政治
  Trump says he will destroy all Iranian bridges and power plants if "no deal" is made.
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-946966cbaf4152b7"></a>2026-04-21 X·@wallstengine · expects bombing in Iran · 地缘政治/军事冲突
  I expect there to be bombing
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=up

2. 内政干预 人事变动 vs 司法独立

*topic: 技术路线/监管政策/人事变动 · 16 bull vs 24 bear*

🟢 bullish 侧:

• <a id="atom-3f11ce0084d3743d"></a>2026-04-25 X·@Techmeme · spoke about pro-crypto policies · 监管政策
  he spoke about his pro-crypto policies
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-199dbe2df60b9c6b"></a>2026-04-30 X·@financialjuice [老化中] · AI 对国家的影响评价 · 技术路线/地缘政治
  AI will be a boon to the country.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=正面
• <a id="atom-11cb59c8e29d2a80"></a>2026-05-11 X·@FirstSquawk [老旧] · 评价伊朗停火协议 · 地缘政治/监管政策
  TRUMP CALLS IRAN CEASEFIRE UNBELIEVABLY WEAK
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-7955f57abf60aa06"></a>2026-05-18 X·@FirstSquawk · 表态AI竞赛重要性 · 管理层表态/技术路线
  TRUMP SAYS 'IMPORTANT THAT WE WIN' IN AI RACE WITH CHINA: FORTUNE
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-57b9c036ff809ff7"></a>2026-05-22 X·@FirstSquawk · says about Warsh bringing modernization to Fed · 监管政策/管理层表态
  TRUMP SAYS WARSH WILL BRING MODERNIZATION TO FED
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily

🔴 bearish 侧:

• <a id="atom-73bf52f6d0d61f99"></a>2026-04-22 X·@DeItaone · criticised Supreme Court and Democrat justices · 监管政策 +同日1条
  TRUMP CRITICISES SUPREME COURT AND DEMOCRAT JUSTICES
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-9a80941835be2d93"></a>2026-05-11 X·@Mira_Mira [老化中] · assisting in bribery of the President by foreign billionaires while joking about taking over the government sounds treasonous · 地缘政治/监管政策
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-f8eefb3d8ae0cf80"></a>2026-05-22 X·@financialjuice · statement about Warsh and Fed forward guidance · 监管政策
  Trump: Warsh will curtail the Fed's practice of forward guidance.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: qty= · date=
• <a id="atom-9f4d4467525ef0dc"></a>2026-05-29 X·@Presidentlin · 对 AI 态度转变 · 地缘政治/监管政策
  Trump will turn negatively on Tech and AI closer to the election season to save face
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-eb704914702d7eab"></a>2026-06-05 X·@jstein_star · 意图取得AI公司部分所有权 · 监管政策
  Trump has now confirmed the story I broke yesterday, says he wants “pieces” of AI companies given to US government — “we are looking into that”
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=确认

3. 市场信心 自己股市 vs 消费者认可

*topic: 仓位情绪/价格动态 · 52 bull vs 15 bear*

🟢 bullish 侧:

• <a id="atom-8c6aa661ad8a8694"></a>2026-04-20 X·@DeItaone · says gas prices will fall as soon as the Iran conflict ends · 能源/价格动态
  Trump says gas prices will fall as soon as the Iran conflict ends
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-40ad74a5b7b2e496"></a>2026-04-22 X·@financialjuice [老旧] · 掌握谈判筹码 · 地缘政治/仓位情绪
  Trump has all of the leverage. The cards are in Trump's hands, the US maintains control.
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=优势
• <a id="atom-69a8e19748cb6d13"></a>2026-04-29 X·@AIStockSavvy [老化中] · 声称使美国获利超300亿美元 · 仓位情绪/财报
  I am responsible for making the United States of America over 30 Billion Dollars in the last 90 days on that stock alone
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=30B · date=2026-04-29
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-a8c6b6d9c5989297"></a>2026-04-30 X·@FirstSquawk [老化中] · highlights stock market gains since his election victory · 仓位情绪
  TRUMP HIGHLIGHTS THE STOCK MARKET'S GAINS SINCE HIS ELECTION VICTORY.
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-f4582b83e1037dc4"></a>2026-04-30 X·@DeItaone · gas prices statement · 能源/价格动态
  GAS PRICES WILL GO DOWN AS SOON AS IRAN WAR IS OVER
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: qty= · direction=down

🔴 bearish 侧:

• <a id="atom-a150cf05f20f5bbb"></a>2026-04-25 X·@Techmeme · avoided discussing memecoin declining value · 价格动态
  avoided the memecoin's declining value
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-a85f8c834f179839"></a>2026-04-28 X·@DeItaone · change in approval on cost of living · 仓位情绪/消费者信心
  DOWN FROM 25% IN PRIOR REUTERS/IPSOS POLL
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=-3pp · direction=down · date=Apr 2026 vs prior poll
• <a id="atom-63706032dc9056f1"></a>2026-04-30 X·@FirstSquawk · 说:汽油价格在伊朗战争结束后会下降 · 价格动态/地缘政治
  TRUMP ON GASOLINE PRICES: GAS PRICES WILL DROP ONCE THE IRAN WAR IS OVER
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=下降 · context=伊朗战争结束后
• <a id="atom-e7db6743d83b4dfd"></a>2026-05-01 X·@financialjuice · 油价预期 · 价格动态/地缘政治 +同日1条
  Trump: When this war ends, oil, gas, and everything will come tumbling down.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=下降 · direction=下降 · date=战争结束后
• <a id="atom-339b89aed063443f"></a>2026-05-01 X·@DeItaone · 宣称战争结束后油价将暴跌 · 地缘政治/价格动态
  WHEN THIS WAR ENDS OIL, GAS AND EVERYTHING WILL COME TUMBLING DOWN
  tags: 好观点 · → daily

🔗 因果传导 (causal map)

*Trump 在产业链上的传导关系. 边是群里/卖方陈述的因果 (非 AI 推断), 数字 = 几条 atom 支撑. 点 atom 溯源.*

↓ 下游·近期陈述 (4)

• 🔴 memory companies · 政策影响 · 2 次陈述
  trump hammers memory companies (most of whom are in Asia) to lower prices
• 🔴 Iran · 传导 · 1 次陈述
  伊朗议长称 Trump 延长停火是“争取时间的企图”
• 🟢 存储公司 · 政策影响 · 1 次陈述
  Within the next month, Trump posts telling memory companies to build faster and bigger.
• 🔴 原油 · 政策影响 · 1 次陈述
  Trump undid 40 years of Iranian sanctions to lower the price of oil

📏 估计带 (1)

*语料内对同一量的估计区间 (≥2 个估计才成带). 不判断谁对, 只陈列.*

• 价格/ASP 未标期限 ⚠混合口径: 2.5 · 2 个估计 · 最新 2026-06-26 2.5 (X·cred4)

🔮 前瞻触发器 (forward triggers)

*这些 atom 指向可能 reprice 的前瞻事件 (无精确日期, 仅类型). 配合上面叙事状态看「上膛」程度.*

监管/政策 (3 · ▲1/▼1)

• 🔴 2026-06-19 · 对 Anthropic 国家安全威胁定性
  Axios' Marc Caputo asked Trump... if he viewed Anthropic, or CEO Dario Amodei, as a threat to national security. "Well, not now, but a week
• ⚪ 2026-05-20 · 声称美伊谈判进入最后阶段
  特朗普称美伊谈判进入最后阶段
• 🟢 2026-05-15 · 接受伊朗暂停核计划 20 年，立场较此前退让
  Trump 表示接受伊朗暂停核计划 20 年，较此前传闻的 10 年有所退让

🟦 客观事实 (facts) (30)

• <a id="atom-ae8c522227810064"></a>🟦 2026-07-01 X·@zerohedge ⭐ · gifted 10 World Cup finals tickets by FIFA head Gianni Infantino · 礼品
  Trump received 10 tickets to the World Cup finals from FIFA head Gianni Infantino valued at $15,000
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=10 · date=World Cup finals
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-03fe069df9e05aa3"></a>🟦 2026-07-01 X·@zerohedge ⭐ · gifted 10 US Open tennis tournament tickets by sponsor Rolex · 礼品
  10 tickets to the US Open tennis tournament from sponsor Rolex worth $25,000
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=10 · date=US Open tennis tournament
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-11bb7cd85193221a"></a>🟦 2026-07-01 X·@zerohedge ⭐ · gifted 10 Super Bowl LIX tickets estimated at $50,000 · 礼品
  10 tickets to Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans estimated at $50,000
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=10 · date=Super Bowl LIX
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-0d2c886539f1c8c7"></a>🟦 2026-07-01 X·@zerohedge ⭐ · reported $4.7 million in royalties from Trump Watches, sneakers, fragrances, guitars · 营收
  Trump reported $4.7 million in royalties from 'Trump Watches,' and payments from Trump-branded sneakers, fragrances and guitars
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=$4.7 million · date=reported period
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-3a03961249f2bc45"></a>🟦 2026-06-30 X·@AIStockSavvy ⭐ · purchased Palantir shares · 监管持仓/仓位情绪
  Trump Bought At Least $100,001 In $PLTR Palantir Shares
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=at least $100,001 · date=2026-06-30
• <a id="atom-4738bf052caaa2b4"></a>🟦 2026-06-30 X·@Techmeme ⭐ · 2025 income from crypto ventures · 收入
  President Trump reports $1.4B+ in income from his family's crypto ventures in 2025, including $500M+ from WLF and $635M from the sale of his $TRUMP coin
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=$1.4B+ · date=2025
• <a id="atom-6f6e9b9c3dd77fb3"></a>🟦 2026-06-30 X·@Techmeme ⭐ · income from WLF · 收入
  $500M+ from WLF
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=$500M+ · date=2025
• <a id="atom-143692dce8e604ab"></a>🟦 2026-06-30 X·@Techmeme ⭐ · income from sale of $TRUMP coin · 收入
  $635M from the sale of his $TRUMP coin
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=$635M · date=2025
• <a id="atom-b6a345f0bd02117b"></a>🟦 2026-05-17 X·@Techmeme ⭐ · traded · 交易活动
  in Q1, Trump traded $220M-$750M in NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, META, ORCL, and others
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=$220M-$750M · date=Q1 2026
• <a id="atom-b7bc08da8c0d6a71"></a>🟦 2026-05-15 X·@Sino_Market ⭐ · China soybean deal · 贸易合作/订单需求
  U.S. reached a soybean deal with China. China will buy billions of dollars in U.S. soybeans.
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=billions of dollars · date=2026-05-15
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-57050f61ac61e8af"></a>🟦 2026-05-15 X·@Sino_Market ⭐ · Iran missile production capacity remaining · 地缘政治/供给产能
  Iran’s missile production capacity is “80–85% gone.”
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=80–85% gone
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-297848242b77c550"></a>🟦 2026-05-14 X·@sanhuyanxishe ⭐ · 披露大规模金融交易，涉及标普500指数基金、英伟达和苹果 · 仓位情绪
  最新财务披露文件显示，特朗普今年早些时候披露了规模至少2.2亿美元的大规模金融交易，涉及多家美国大型公司的证券，包括标普500指数基金、英伟达和苹果。
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=2.2亿
• <a id="atom-8467fd40ee8edc40"></a>🟦 2026-05-13 X·@KobeissiLetter ⭐ · flying to China with CEO entourage · 地缘政治/管理层表态
  President Trump is currently flying to China with all of the following people to request "deals" with China's President Xi: [list of 12 CEOs] ... President Trump also says there are "many other" CEOs joining him
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=12+ CEOs · date=2026-05-13
• <a id="atom-19e773199507649c"></a>🟦 2026-04-25 群 · 单方面取消涉伊会面并迅速收到新报价 · 外交/会谈/报价
  Trump 单方面取消涉伊会面 → 迅速收到新报价
  tags: 好信源·好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-1e5707f1e67b794b"></a>🟦 2026-06-30 X·@AIStockSavvy · 持有价值至少$5M的Apple股票 · 监管披露/仓位持仓
  Trump Owned At Least $5M In $AAPL Apple Shares, Disclosure Shows
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=$5M · date=披露日
• <a id="atom-4d7eeb85bad66b96"></a>🟦 2026-06-30 X·@LNG_Investor_ · 加密资产收益披露 · 监管政策/仓位情绪
  TRUMP DISCLOSES MORE THAN $1.2B IN CRYPTO EARNINGS
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=>$1.2B · date=2026-06-30
• <a id="atom-310a41eb13d4f6dc"></a>🟦 2026-06-26 X·@Techmeme ⭐ · 威胁对征收数字服务税的国家加征100%关税 · 关税/地缘政治
  President Trump threatens to impose a 100% tariff on any country that imposes a digital services tax on US companies
  tags: 好信源·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=100% · direction=threatens
• <a id="atom-0e13da7602998d10"></a>🟦 2026-05-16 X·@tuolaji2024 · Q1买入英伟达、博通和苹果 · 仓位情绪
  特朗普Q1也买入英伟达、博通和苹果
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: date=2025Q1
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-22173c90bac37b27"></a>🟦 2026-06-19 X·@dmjk001 · 对Anthropic PBC国家安全威胁的看法 · 管理层表态/监管政策
  特朗普表示，他并不认为 Anthropic PBC 构成国家安全威胁
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-eb33c5487ce3bd29"></a>🟦 2026-05-19 X·@zerohedge · statement on gasoline initiatives · 价格动态/地缘政治
  *TRUMP: THERE MAY BE OTHER INITIATIVES TO KEEP GASOLINE DOWN
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=keeping gasoline down
• <a id="atom-72de067b513924d4"></a>🟦 2026-05-28 X·@zerohedge · 最终审批状态 · 监管政策/地缘政治
  Pending Trump's Final Approval
  tags: 好信源·好问题 · → daily
  value: direction=pending
• <a id="atom-9e349b1bc1539edf"></a>🟦 2026-06-19 群 [老化中] · 对 Anthropic 国家安全威胁定性 · 国家安全/政治风险
  Axios' Marc Caputo asked Trump... if he viewed Anthropic, or CEO Dario Amodei, as a threat to national security. "Well, not now, but a week ago, maybe," the president said.
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-dcb5dea8668a96b7"></a>🟦 2026-05-20 群 · 声称美伊谈判进入最后阶段 · 谈判进展
  特朗普称美伊谈判进入最后阶段
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-1ad35b958e8c22bd"></a>🟦 2026-04-25 群 · 单方面取消Witkoff和Kushner的巴基斯坦涉伊行程 · 取消行程/外交事件
  Trump 告诉 Fox 记者他单方面取消了 Witkoff 和 Kushner 去巴基斯坦见伊朗人的行程
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-9cf35bc5ac4c36db"></a>🟦 2026-04-17 群 · 宣称伊朗同意无限期暂停核计划且永不关闭海峡 · 伊朗核协议/霍尔木兹海峡
  特朗普称伊朗同意无限期暂停核计划且永不关闭海峡
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-dfd0b84844bf268b"></a>🟦 2026-04-12 群 · 宣布美军封锁霍尔木兹海峡 · 封锁/地缘冲突
  Trump 宣布: 美军将封锁进出霍尔木兹海峡的所有船只，并摧毁伊朗布设的水雷，搜捕任何向伊朗支付过路费的船只
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: action=封锁进出霍尔木兹海峡的所有船只；摧毁伊朗水雷；搜捕已向伊朗支付过路费的船只
• <a id="atom-bafd587b20ae7b87"></a>🟦 2026-04-10 群 · 对霍尔木兹海峡的判断 · 霍尔木兹海峡/特朗普判断
  特朗普目前认为短期内重开霍尔木兹海峡的可能性不大
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-e121dc2aa083c93f"></a>🟦 2026-04-01 群 · 对待伊朗协议的态度 · 外交叙事/责任归因
  若伊朗协议失败则怪 JD Vance，若成功则全揽功劳
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-1353ac62d8248d62"></a>🟦 2026-06-30 X·@AIStockSavvy · Palantir 持股买入 · 仓位情绪
  Trump Bought At Least $1M In $PLTR Palantir Shares, Disclosure Shows - Bloomberg
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=$1M · date=2026-06-30
• <a id="atom-25b4631b9a757cee"></a>🟦 2026-06-15 X·@JackFarley96 · 100 million barrel figure claim accuracy · 库存
  Trump's 100 million barrel figure here is roughly accurate
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
  📷 原图

🟥 多头 takes (bullish) (28)

• <a id="atom-8285613c91a7b587"></a>🟥 2026-05-06 X·@AIStockSavvy [老化中] · 声称股市今日创历史新高 · 价格动态/仓位情绪
  TRUMP: STOCK MARKET HIT AN ALL-TIME HIGH TODAY, JOBS & 401-K’S ARE BOOMING - $QQQ $SPY
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-bb60d3e87c033bf6"></a>🟥 2026-04-17 X·@hungjng69679118 [老化中] · 迫切希望结束战争或接受更多妥协 · 地缘政治
  海湾地区官员：特朗普迫切希望结束战争，或将接受更多妥协。
  tags: 好信源·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-ccc7730265b557f4"></a>🟥 2026-06-17 X·@zerohedge ⭐ · 关于股市对和平谈判的反应 · 仓位情绪/地缘政治
  EVERY TIME WE TALKED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF PEACEM THE STOCK MARKET SHOT UP LIKE A ROCKETSHIP, IT NEVER WENT DOWN. THE STOCK MARKET IS MORE BRILLIANT THAN ALL PEOPLE ON THIS STAGE, EXCEPT ME OF COURSE
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty= · date=
• <a id="atom-d69eb199d6cfbe18"></a>🟥 2026-06-17 X·@AIStockSavvy · 断言美伊协议将签署 · 地缘政治
  Trump Says US-Iran Deal Will Be Signed Tomorrow Or Friday
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
  value: date=tomorrow or Friday
• <a id="atom-085f913b8067ad19"></a>🟥 2026-05-30 X·@JaredKubin · 出口管制放松预期 · 出口管制/地缘政治
  TRUMP PUMP FACTOR
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty= · date=
• <a id="atom-0b9f7d90af8c0686"></a>🟥 2026-05-29 X·@AIStockSavvy [老旧] · 要求霍尔木兹海峡立即开放 · 地缘政治/能源
  Trump: Hormuz Strait Must Be Immediately Open, No Tolls
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=无 · date=2026-05-29
• <a id="atom-69a8e19748cb6d13"></a>🟥 2026-04-29 X·@AIStockSavvy [老化中] · 声称使美国获利超300亿美元 · 仓位情绪/财报
  I am responsible for making the United States of America over 30 Billion Dollars in the last 90 days on that stock alone
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=30B · date=2026-04-29
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-eb67b948da898671"></a>🟥 2026-07-01 X·@ZiggyWumpus · 不会让 Larry Fink 失败 · 管理层表态
  No way Trump lets his buddy Larry fail
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-f3dde7bf1cc99dce"></a>🟥 2026-06-14 X·@KobeissiLetter · 提出最后的让步促使伊朗放弃攻击 · 地缘政治
  after 'last-minute concessions' offered by President Trump, Iran was 'persuaded to forgo the attack'
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-911ab9c5dd36ef3d"></a>🟥 2026-06-13 X·@KobeissiLetter · 声 称与伊朗的协议 · 地缘政治/能源
  President Trump says a deal with Iran is scheduled to be signed tomorrow, immediately reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=tomorrow · date=2026-06-14
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-94ad3934a7e06e88"></a>🟥 2026-05-14 X·@Sino_Market · 表述习近平是纯粹生意人，不打游戏 · 地缘政治/合作客户
  TRUMP: CHINA'S XI IS ALL BUSINESS, NO GAMES -FOX NEWS INTERVIEW
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  [图: 包含特朗普关于习近平言论新闻及市场影响预测（标普500、离岸人民币、美元指数）的快讯卡片 — May 15 09:07:15 (发布时间)]
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-0eaa44ced4478db7"></a>🟥 2026-06-18 X·@AIStockSavvy · 预期全面停火 · 地缘政治
  Trump: we expect a complete ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon, Hezbollah, and Israel
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=ceasefire
• <a id="atom-ac3c59bc04d7f170"></a>🟥 2026-06-20 X·@zerohedge · statement on Anthropic national security threat · 监管政策
  Trump Says He No Longer Views Anthropic As A National Security Threat
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-4749d95dd5cfc4c5"></a>🟥 2026-05-16 X·@Alisvolatprop12 · 임기 말 세계 반도체 40~50% 美 위치 기대 · 供给产能/地缘政治
  자신이 임기를 마칠 무렵 세계 반도체 산업의 40∼50%가 미국에 위치하길 기대한다고도 밝혔다.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=40-50% · date=임기 말
• <a id="atom-af6a4e8d82af769c"></a>🟥 2026-05-14 X·@disclosetv [老旧] · 对华市场开放表态 · 地缘政治
  Trump on China: "We want to open it up. It's massive. We want to get all of those companies and many more in there, and make a lot of money and a lot of jobs for America."
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-09bdbac8c31c4f9e"></a>🟥 2026-05-13 X·@GARRlS0N [老旧] · described as not perfect but knows about business · 仓位情绪
  Trump is definitely not a perfect president, but he knows about business!
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-ab29e69bf0bf1c0d"></a>🟥 2026-05-12 X·@zerohedge [老化中] · 对与习近平会晤的看法 · 地缘政治
  THINK THE MEETING WITH XI IS GOING TO BE GOOD
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=good
• <a id="atom-57495be3f49f9885"></a>🟥 2026-05-11 X·@clashreport [老化中] · 考虑让委内瑞拉成为美国第51个州 · 地缘政治
  Trump says he is "seriously considering" making Venezuela the 51st state of the United States.
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-07f8e0ee944f1488"></a>🟥 2026-04-30 X·@zerohedge · 声称冲突结束后汽油价格将暴跌 · 价格动态
  Trump Says Gas Prices Will Drop "Like a Rock" Once Conflict Ends
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=down
• <a id="atom-cb820070f2847b22"></a>🟥 2026-06-19 X·@tuolaji2024 · 对中国的立场 · 地缘政治
  特朗普=三倍于多中国
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-60cfb66f2f4072d6"></a>🟥 2026-06-14 X·@aleabitoreddit · 政策方向 · 地缘政治/仓位情绪
  Trump is doing everything to boost markets before Midterms
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-b3f526dbb820aedf"></a>🟥 2026-06-11 X·@4p87hgrhh2 · AI 入局状态 · 监管政策
  感觉川普已经100%入局了
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-4ba5c903464b2807"></a>🟥 2026-06-11 X·@boneGPT · 声称打击非常有效且海峡开放 · 地缘政治
  ATH when Trump says the strikes were super effective and the strait is open.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=开放
• <a id="atom-7e2604312aaad478"></a>🟥 2026-06-03 X·@labubu_trader · 战争升级可能性 · 地缘政治
  I don’t think the war escalation is possible
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=down
• <a id="atom-8f18870ce66788b9"></a>🟥 2026-05-27 X·@based16z · championed assets price performance · 仓位情绪
  there hasn't been an asset Trump has championed that hasn't run
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=up
• <a id="atom-7ffa58530100ab6e"></a>🟥 2026-05-18 X·@AIStockSavvy · 称应要求更大英特尔持股 · 仓位情绪
  Trump says he should have asked for bigger Intel stake amid share gains - $INTC
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-be26ce6c8b394411"></a>🟥 2026-05-17 X·@StockSavvyShay · 投资方向 · 仓位情绪/数据中心算力
  the biggest winners are heavily tilted toward semis, AI infrastructure & power
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-2b280f1ce5c45be3"></a>🟥 2026-05-14 X·@Brad_Setser · is inconsistent · 地缘政治
  Trump is nothing if not inconsistent -- hard for me to believe that there is not another swing of mood over the next 2.5 years ...
  tags: 好观点 · → daily

🟥 空头 takes (bearish) (30)

• <a id="atom-f2f2a985588637eb"></a>🟥 2026-05-19 X·@zerohedge · 对伊朗军事行动决定 · 地缘政治
  Israeli assessments indicate that Trump has made the decision to attack Iran and implementation is only a matter of time: AlHadath
  tags: 好信源·好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=决定 · date=未知
• <a id="atom-495806dd78ce17e3"></a>🟥 2026-06-25 X·@JosephJacks_ ⭐ · 可能试图使持有和推理 GLM 5.2 或其衍生物权重成为非法 · 监管政策
  Trump may try to make possession and inference of the GLM 5.2 or any such derivative improved weights… illegal.
  tags: 好观点·好思考·好问题 · → daily
• <a id="atom-796906e8a967d8ad"></a>🟥 2026-06-26 X·@AIStockSavvy · 威胁对数字服务税国家征收100%关税 · 关税/政策立场
  Trump threatens 100% tariffs on countries imposing digital services tax
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=100%
• <a id="atom-d84ef250dc3aefc6"></a>🟥 2026-06-18 X·@DMichaelTripi · 可能延迟对以色列的武器运输或实施武器禁运 · 地缘政治/出口管制
  Israeli officials believe President Trump could potentially delay weapons shipments or impose an arms embargo on Israel in the future if Netanyahu won’t withdraw forces from Lebanon.
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=未来可能
• <a id="atom-bcd47243f54689e6"></a>🟥 2026-06-10 X·@zerohedge · 伊朗攻击立场声明 · 地缘政治
  WILL BE ATTACKING IRAN HARD
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-30825418108fa896"></a>🟥 2026-06-08 X·@KobeissiLetter · 警告 Netanyahu 若再与伊朗开战将独自作战 · 地缘政治
  President Trump reportedly called Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and warned him that if he went back to war with Iran, he might be fighting on his own, per Axios.
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: date=2026-06-08 · direction=独自作战
• <a id="atom-ca2f1bed7617ff37"></a>🟥 2026-05-11 X·@zerohedge [老化中] · 考虑再启军事行动 · 地缘政治
  Trump Mulls Renewed Military Action As Ceasefire "On Life Support"
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-2f3fbfd850093a65"></a>🟥 2026-06-25 X·@JosephJacks_ · 对Anthropic和OpenAI的攻击令人担忧 · 监管政策
  Trump’s attack on Anthropic and OpenAI is very concerning.
  tags: 好观点·好问题 · → daily
• <a id="atom-c0d1af7b7a7913f7"></a>🟥 2026-05-15 X·@zerohedge · 谈论Thucydides陷阱威胁 · 地缘政治
  Trump Talk & 'Thucydides Trap' Threat Triggers Market Mayhem Overnight
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-69282536a6c54603"></a>🟥 2026-04-27 X·@AIStockSavvy [老旧] · 要求迪士尼解雇Jimmy Kimmel · 人事变动
  Trump: Jimmy Kimmel should be immediately fired by Disney and ABC - $DIS
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-8ec410abd4db6760"></a>🟥 2026-06-13 X·@gfodor · will give Anthropic to Elon if nationalized · 监管政策/地缘政治
  If they get nationalized Trump will just give it to Elon or something.
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-5835a08c9d930bf5"></a>🟥 2026-06-09 X·@AntonLaVay · 公开要求降息 · 监管政策/宏观利率
  如果特朗普公开要求降息
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-6af86ae584f18140"></a>🟥 2026-04-25 群 ◌ [老化中] · 急于结束伊朗问题的意图，担忧反而壮胆伊朗 · 外交博弈/市场担忧
  Trump 急于结束此事的意图明显，群内担忧这可能反而让伊朗胆子变大
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-9d05f1774681b943"></a>🟥 2026-04-17 群 ◌ [老旧] · 单方面邀功引发群内质疑 · 政治叙事/市场质疑
  特朗普单方面邀功引发群内质疑
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-dc690e77af025dc1"></a>🟥 2026-04-04 群 ◌ [老旧] · 涉伊朗言论反复无常，从进攻威胁到谈判再到摧毁基建 · 言论反复/立场不确定性
  群内盘点特朗普自1月以来的涉伊言论时间线，凸显其立场反复无常，引发群内强烈调侃
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-3b31a3f97d9f76af"></a>🟥 2026-06-27 X·@teortaxesTex · 耳朵被影响 · 监管政策
  Trump's ear is just that, the ear of an old man.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-c6b59f5f202e7ea9"></a>🟥 2026-06-26 X·@lucifer5670 · 针对韩国半导体公司 · 地缘政治/关税
  트럼프가 삼전 닉스 벼르고 있지 않을까 하는 걱정
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-a9a13373c404824c"></a>🟥 2026-06-19 X·@pingzhang632 · 对待盟友的方式 · 地缘政治
  我不知道美国总统为什么会以这种方式对待自己的盟友
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-4bebb87031d457a3"></a>🟥 2026-06-19 X·@pingzhang632 · 对敌人态度不够强硬 · 地缘政治
  他没有把同样的决心和强硬态度用在西方的敌人、美国的敌人身上，反而对那些领导人表现得更加迁就和宽容
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-fabb28a0cab38933"></a>🟥 2026-06-17 X·@teortaxesTex · 对Dario态度 · 管理层表态
  Trump wants Dario to lick his boots
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-e254fd243264eb7f"></a>🟥 2026-06-17 X·@teortaxesTex · 政策影响判断 · 竞争格局
  They might well tip the scales long enough for OpenAI to recover
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-7bd3bf4de956e691"></a>🟥 2026-06-14 X·@Presidentlin · 任期剩余时间预期 · 地缘政治
  the next two years for Trump don't even seem fully guaranteed.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-d43368d939c4ae77"></a>🟥 2026-06-14 X·@qinbafrank · 感受到内坦尼亚胡变成负资产 · 地缘政治/仓位情绪
  川普应该是越来越感受到内塔要变成了他的“负资产”了
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-cabf229e6bbc6632"></a>🟥 2026-06-13 X·@Brad_Setser · not willing to adjust tariffs on Europe to make common cause with EU vs China · 关税
  Trump in year 2 of term 2 isn't willing to adjust his tariffs on Europe to make common cause with a changing EU v China...
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-4f5ce352380ab669"></a>🟥 2026-06-13 X·@Brad_Setser · new 301s are aimed at everyone not just China · 关税
  Trump's new 301s are aimed at everyone not just China...
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-1c15f0c247ce68d7"></a>🟥 2026-06-08 X·@PAstynome · humiliated Kim · 地缘政治
  Trump humiliated him. The whole thing was a disaster.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-ee022681cd1cae66"></a>🟥 2026-05-30 X·@koreabrucewayne · 判断失误 · 地缘政治
  트럼프 행정부의 판단착오.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-9f4d4467525ef0dc"></a>🟥 2026-05-29 X·@Presidentlin · 对 AI 态度转变 · 地缘政治/监管政策
  Trump will turn negatively on Tech and AI closer to the election season to save face
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-3fe518fbe77385e5"></a>🟥 2026-05-21 X·@HormuzLetter · 铀库存移除的唯一剩余机制是地面行动 · 地缘政治
  Trump's only remaining mechanism for removal is a ground operation to physically seize the stockpile
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-5791f0bb79f21001"></a>🟥 2026-05-20 X·@tuolaji2024 · 对泽连斯基行为模式 · 地缘政治
  川普估计会像对待泽连斯基那样吧，先讨债，讹人，然后再拱手想让？
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  📷 原图

🟥 中性 takes (neutral) (20)

• <a id="atom-915821d58a1836f8"></a>🟥 2026-06-14 X·@zerohedge · 宣称和平协议周日达成 · 地缘政治
  Trump Says Peace Deal Coming Sunday As Tehran Signals Still Reviewing Text
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
  value: date=Sunday
• <a id="atom-e8bd3082800a2ce4"></a>🟥 2026-05-24 X·@zerohedge [老旧] · defends Iran deal criticism · 地缘政治/监管政策
  Trump Bats Down Critics As Iran Deal Gets Close: 'Exact Opposite' Of 'Amateur' Obama JCPOA
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=na
• <a id="atom-d1639ca51eaca0cd"></a>🟥 2026-04-17 X·@AIStockSavvy [老化中] · prepared to make concessions in Iran negotiations · 地缘政治/谈判进展
  Trump prepared to make concessions in Iran negotiations
  tags: 好信源·好观点 · → daily
  value: date=2026-04-17
• <a id="atom-6c6230e06c34e80e"></a>🟥 2026-07-02 X·@zerohedge · plan_to_use_Iranian_funds_for_food_purchases · 地缘政治
  TRUMP REITERATES PLAN TO USE IRANIAN FUNDS FOR FOOD PURCHASES
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-fc907b5e203a88cb"></a>🟥 2026-06-12 X·@hamandcheese · 被描述为无力旁观者 · 地缘政治/监管政策
  Obviously Trump is a powerless bystander and this is all part of the Biden Administration's 30 part plan for AI nationalization being faithfully executed by the deep state
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-cb4b1de417f82b21"></a>🟥 2026-06-02 X·@zerohedge · blasts reports of Iran talks freeze · 地缘政治
  Trump Blasts 'Fake' Reports Of Iran Talks Freeze
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-1a4d5392f90b73e1"></a>🟥 2026-05-21 X·@AIStockSavvy · 声明伊朗冲突将很快结束 · 地缘政治
  The Iran conflict will end soon
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-6d5d1ffe7b632156"></a>🟥 2026-05-21 X·@AIStockSavvy · 美方将获取伊朗铀并可能摧毁 · 地缘政治
  The US will get Iran's uranium, we will likely destroy it
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-03fe5df8ae704f7a"></a>🟥 2026-05-20 X·@zerohedge [老旧] · 伊朗谈判表态 · 地缘政治
  TRUMP: DO WE FINISH IRAN UP OR WILL THEY SIGN, LET'S SEE
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-8690640d2a3afb9b"></a>🟥 2026-04-21 群 · 伊朗封锁策略 · 中东政策/封锁
  Trump 延长停火但未解除封锁
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-e3325cc7c75d9863"></a>🟥 2026-04-06 群 [老旧] · 对伊朗军事行动 · 军事行动/谈判
  Axios 称如果 Trump 看到达成协议的希望，可能会推迟行动
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-4f7e71e39356a17b"></a>🟥 2026-06-23 X·@zerohedge · 声称伊朗在核检查问题上让步 · 地缘政治
  Trump Insists Iran Caved On Nuclear Inspections
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-4e549f42c71b5ad3"></a>🟥 2026-06-01 X·@zerohedge · MOU completion timeline · 并购
  TRUMP TO ABC ON MOU: WILL BE COMPLETED 'OVER THE NEXT WEEK'
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  value: date=next week
• <a id="atom-1d14be78aa61a7aa"></a>🟥 2026-06-11 X·@zerohedge · 声称结束与伊朗的战争 · 地缘政治
  TRUMP: ENDED WAR WITH IRAN TODAY
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-83837355b87ef6c2"></a>🟥 2026-06-08 X·@AIStockSavvy · 警告Netanyahu若与伊朗重返战争可能独自作战 · 地缘政治/监管政策
  Trump says he'd warned Netanyahu that if he went back to war with Iran, he might find himself fighting alone - Axios
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-7fdf7227fd0757c9"></a>🟥 2026-06-05 X·@zerohedge · confused about stock market decline · 仓位情绪
  Trump confused why stocks are down
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-09eb066ab69c79ba"></a>🟥 2026-05-27 X·@AIStockSavvy · statement on Iran sanctions lift · 地缘政治
  TRUMP: Iran Would Not Get US Sanctions Lift Even If It Gave Up Highly Enriched Uranium
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-3154fdf192ab9677"></a>🟥 2026-04-18 X·@pstAsiatech · predicts meeting with Xi will be ‘special’ · 地缘政治/管理层表态
  Trump predicts meeting with Xi will be ‘special’ ahead of China visit
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-0edc51797acf7424"></a>🟥 2026-04-21 群 [老化中] · 伊朗战略结局 · 中东政策/战略结局
  有观点认为最可能的结局是美国撤军并宣布胜利，让世界自行解决霍尔木兹海峡问题
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-43f5b39447f1c291"></a>🟥 2026-06-11 X·@max_paperclips · 推文情绪与K线异常关联模式 · 仓位情绪
  set up a bot to monitor trumps tweets for bullish/bearish sentiment. set up another to monitor candles. the signal is just "unusual candle, followed by trump tweet with sentiment in same direction". And rinse and repeat
  tags: 好思考 · → daily

🟦 新闻流 (squawk · 40)

⏱ 时间轴 (近 20)

• 🟦 2026-07-03 · fact · stance on US AI regulator · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-03 · fact · pardons decision based on adviser recommendations · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-03 · fact · 签署赦免令 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-03 · fact · signed pardons for six people · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-02 · narrative · counter-factually lowered the foreign born percentage relati · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-02 · narrative · 声称能通过赢得诉讼罢免美联储理事 Cook · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · 表述未知晓加密收益 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · crypto earnings legality statement · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · 表示美国必须在加密和AI领域领先 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · 表示不知道自己的加密货币收入 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-02 · narrative · 对住房法案表态 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · 提及 Intel 股权 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · 对 AI 表态 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · 签署住房法案偏好 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · AI 监管态度 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · 对华 AI 监管态度 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · 美国在加密和AI领域的目标 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-02 · fact · 美国在英特尔持股的收益 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-02 · narrative · AI重要性言论 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-02 · narrative · 表态：宁愿不签署住房法案直到选民ID通过 · → daily

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