China

1483 atoms · 跨 79 天 · 首见 2026-04-05 · 最近 2026-07-03

三色: 🟦 fact 885 · 🟥 take 598 · stance ▲275/▼368/◆398

叙事状态: 🍂 fading (退潮) · 💤 沉寂 · 策展近14d 0 atom · 🐦 X 近14d 133

状态只算低频策展源 (群/卖方); X firehose 仅作背景音量

来源: 群 7 · X 1471 · 卖 3

时态: fresh:1367 · aging:80 · stale:21 · expired:15

标签: 好观点:563 · 好信源:486 · 好数字:472 · 好思考:134 · 好问题:14

别名 (合并): CHINA · 中国 · 中國

🟨 AI 综合 · junior analyst 概览

🧭 拥挤度 (一人一票): ▲ 69 位作者 (KOL68 · 媒体1) + 群 1 条 vs ▼ 106 位作者 (KOL106) + 群 1 条

⚖️ 空头 106/106 来自KOL

📄 广泛报道的事实 · 15 个

💢 核心分歧 (3 轴)

1. 工业产能韧性 化解外部冲击 vs 遭遇反噬

*topic: 地缘政治/能源/供给产能/关税/出口管制 · 52 bull vs 108 bear*

🟢 bullish 侧:

• <a id="atom-4c46fefec45934da"></a>2026-05-07 群 ◌ [老化中] · 囤油态度决定霍尔木兹海峡局势走向 · 地缘政治/需求
  中国囤油态度决定局势走向
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-2d00312f0c783eb8"></a>2026-04-16 X·@KobeissiLetter · 正在提升国内能源产量 · 能源
  China is ramping up domestic energy production as Gulf supply disruptions reshape global energy flows.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  [图: 中国原油日产量历史走势及预测折线图（2000年至2026年） — 4.8m b/d (图表标注最高产量); 4.6 million barrels per day (最新原油日产量); +1.3% YoY (2026年第一季度总产量同比增速)]
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-68652f6ade99c094"></a>2026-04-22 X·@teortaxesTex [老化中] · 对攻击的代谢能力 · 地缘政治 +同日1条
  they are so complete, resilient and high-agency, any form of attack over the long term will be metabolized into an advantage.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-15b1b5492355e27a"></a>2026-04-30 X·@FirstSquawk · 外交部长王毅表态 · 地缘政治
  CHINA'S FOREIGN MINISTER WANG YI SAYS TO ENHANCE COOPERATION AND HANDLE DIFFERENCES.
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-63a41dd72d23df41"></a>2026-05-12 X·@stevehou [老化中] · preparedness for energy supply chain disruption · 地缘政治/能源
  China has been preparing for this scenario for a long time in a million different ways
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  📷 原图

🔴 bearish 侧:

• <a id="atom-d46c1fe4ae451924"></a>2026-04-15 X·@PAstynome [老化中] · 报复风险 · 地缘政治
  you risk retaliation from China
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=risk of retaliation
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-f595310772f1e3d6"></a>2026-04-18 X·@OmerCheeema [老化中] · 受保护主义刺激加速自给自足 · 地缘政治
  restrictions may not slow a determined rival long-term but instead spur faster self-sufficiency
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=加速
• <a id="atom-307d051bf00651a5"></a>2026-04-19 X·@FirstSquawk · 警告强厄尔尼诺今年可能恶化全球化石燃料危机 · 出口管制/能源
  CHINA WARNS STRONG EL NINO THIS YEAR MAY WORSEN GLOBAL FOSSIL FUEL CRISIS-SCMP
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: date=2026-04-20
• <a id="atom-ea5e22b754c4469d"></a>2026-04-22 X·@zerohedge [老化中] · 石油卖出规模 · 地缘政治
  China "Aggressively" Selling Oil In Recent Weeks
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=aggressively · date=recent weeks
• <a id="atom-f6a9f79cf86352d5"></a>2026-04-26 X·@Brad_Setser [老旧] · should not have stopped the flow of rare earths over the ongoing dispute between JP and CH · 地缘政治
  China should not have stopped the flow of rare earths over the ongoing dispute over a few rocks in the sea between JP and CH
  tags: 好观点 · → daily

2. 芯片自给 加速突破 vs 持续落后

*topic: 技术路线/出口管制/竞争格局/供给产能 · 91 bull vs 119 bear*

🟢 bullish 侧:

• <a id="atom-a25b6f4cdd5f8c9b"></a>2026-04-15 X·@teortaxesTex [老化中] · cannot ban Nvidia if freely available · 人才流动/竞争格局
  They can't actually do that if they ban Nvidia when it's freely available, 70% of researchers just leave for the US.
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-5fa606d3d406abce"></a>2026-04-30 X·@teortaxesTex · 冶金技术差距 · 技术路线
  the point is that there's no gap in relevant metallurgy knowledge
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=无差距
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-ea59721889b1f1a9"></a>2026-05-03 X·@gnievchenko · time to match NVDA chips · 技术路线/竞争格局
  it will take China still two years to match Nvidias chips
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=2 years · date=future
• <a id="atom-285411618cdb83bf"></a>2026-05-04 X·@VictorTN_83 · 非硅芯片跨越机会 · 技术路线
  They can simply leapfrog silicon chips and EUV machines. The Chinese are researching multiple approaches, for example, bismuth oxyselenide transistors and non-binary AI chips.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-6537ecdae19c4189"></a>2026-05-08 X·@ShanghaoJin [老化中] · 战略是用国家力量卷死韩国存储 · 竞争格局
  有计划的用国家力量卷死韩国
  tags: 好观点 · → daily

🔴 bearish 侧:

• <a id="atom-3643a907f169ca72"></a>2026-04-15 X·@scaling01 [老化中] · is already semiconductor-pilled · 技术路线/竞争格局
  now china is already semiconductor-pilled
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-768ee575f1d8744a"></a>2026-04-16 X·@bookwormengr · 芯片独立和AGI/ASI能力发展 · 出口管制/技术路线
  if you create existential threat for China; and if they pour themselves into it - one can not stop them from achieving chip independence and AGI/ASI both
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-1cae6186080abc69"></a>2026-04-17 X·@yacineMTB · chip wars outcome · 竞争格局/出口管制
  China is going to win the chip wars
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: direction=win
• <a id="atom-7673dd0e6d584af2"></a>2026-04-18 X·@pstAsiatech [老化中] · 管控AI竞赛评分板 · 竞争格局/地缘政治
  US controls chips in the AI race, but China controls the scoreboard
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=dominant
• <a id="atom-79f47dfaddce7dba"></a>2026-04-18 X·@teortaxesTex [老化中] · 无法承受更换Nvidia每一代产品的成本 · 竞争格局
  They can't afford to churn through Nvidia generations.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  📷 原图

3. 贸易顺差 比较优势 vs 进口需求疲弱

*topic: 经常账户/汇率/关税 · 14 bull vs 28 bear*

🟢 bullish 侧:

• <a id="atom-75f32270eba94e79"></a>2026-05-11 X·@ChadBown · will increase purchases of US agricultural goods · 关税 +同日2条
  Discussions will focus largely on trade issues, namely the Chinese purchases of American agricultural goods
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-d72fb65d1dfae30d"></a>2026-05-13 X·@Brad_Setser · back to running big surpluses sustained through backdoor intervention · 汇率
  more relevant than ever now that China is back to running big surpluses sustained through backdoor intervention.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-82b01d6dcdcda5aa"></a>2026-05-22 X·@Brad_Setser · 作为出口基地的经济优势 · 出口基地/关税
  with the current structure of tariffs -- and weak yuan -- it makes sense for both Tesla and many EU firms to use China as an export base
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-bea0504cf3a92864"></a>2026-05-28 X·@Brad_Setser · 2022年经常账户方法调整后货物与服务盈余 · 经常账户
  the underlying surplus has shrunk a lot
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: direction=已大幅缩小
  [图: 德国与中国投资收益占GDP百分比的历史与预测走势对比折线图（2000年Q4至2025年Q4） — 德国2018年Q4峰值: 约3.8%; 中国2007年Q4峰值: 约0.6%; 德国2025年Q4预测值: 约3.5%; 中国2025年Q4预测值: 约-0.6%]
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-1762f93dc6a03b95"></a>2026-06-02 X·@cnfinancewatch · 对关税战恐惧已无 · 关税/地缘政治
  目前中国对关税战、科技围堵的恐惧已经没有了。
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  📷 原图

🔴 bearish 侧:

• <a id="atom-abe2fe09aeff102d"></a>2026-04-25 X·@TensorSlay · 台湾层压板进口配额状态 · 关税/供应链
  the Chinese port quotas for laminate imports from Taiwan remain frozen at April 2025 levels
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: date=April 2025
• <a id="atom-856340d563fcfe9d"></a>2026-05-20 X·@Brad_Setser · yuan undervalued propelled exports to grow faster than global trade · 汇率/出口数据
  an undervalued Chinese currency propelled Chinese exports to grow much faster than global trade
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=up
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-321828061e992258"></a>2026-05-21 X·@Brad_Setser · turbocharges exports with weak currency · 出口/汇率
  China turbocharges its exports with a weak currency
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-b10b3767a0af0f51"></a>2026-05-25 X·@Richard_Casey · 人民币汇率容忍度 · 汇率
  中国没有迹象显示容忍人民币进一步显著升值
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-83453e7518498b42"></a>2026-05-28 X·@Brad_Setser · 汇率低估 · 汇率/地缘政治 +同日4条
  an undervalued currency
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  📷 原图

🔗 因果传导 (causal map)

*China 在产业链上的传导关系. 边是群里/卖方陈述的因果 (非 AI 推断), 数字 = 几条 atom 支撑. 点 atom 溯源.*

🏛 常设关系 (1) — 复发陈述晋升, 常驻

• 🟢 伊朗局势 · 传导 🏛常设 · 3 次陈述 · 04-05→04-05
  中国正通过私企向伊朗输送 AI 军事情报

↓ 下游·近期陈述 (14)

• 🔴 Global tungsten buyers · 供给挤压 · 2 次陈述
  the raw supply chain is overwhelmingly dominated by China, which controls roughly 80% of global tungsten mining, refinin
• 🟢 global temperatures · 传导 · 2 次陈述
  Chyna did increase global temperatures by reducing sulphuric emissions
• 🟢 US · 资金轮动 · 1 次陈述
  Macklem: imbalances rise as China’s capital outflow grows, with US as top recipient
• 🔴 euro area output · 竞争 · 1 次陈述
  between the 0.3 pp fall in euro area exports to China + losing export market shares to Chinese companies, particularly i
• 🔴 rare earth minerals市场 · 供给挤压 · 1 次陈述
  China’s decision this week is further escalation of its efforts to manipulate and control rare earth minerals.
• 🔴 全球关键矿产供应链 · 供给挤压 · 1 次陈述
  It is again weaponizing the critical mineral supply chain and trying to make the entire world dependent on it in order t
• 🟢 Japan · 供给挤压 · 1 次陈述
  China resumes gallium exports to Japan after 4-month suspension
• 🔴 DDR · 竞争 · 1 次陈述
  DDR I still think China is going to fuck everyone

↑ 上游·近期陈述 (7)

• 🔴 原油 · 成本传导 · 1 次陈述
  中国很快要回归通缩了。油价、金价、金属都在暴跌。伊朗带来的一次性冲击已经结束，接下来PPI下跌全行业传导。
• 🔴 金价 · 成本传导 · 1 次陈述
  中国很快要回归通缩了。油价、金价、金属都在暴跌。伊朗带来的一次性冲击已经结束，接下来PPI下跌全行业传导。
• 🔴 金属 · 成本传导 · 1 次陈述
  中国很快要回归通缩了。油价、金价、金属都在暴跌。伊朗带来的一次性冲击已经结束，接下来PPI下跌全行业传导。
• ⚪ 伊朗局势 · 供给挤压 · 1 次陈述
  中国很快要回归通缩了。油价、金价、金属都在暴跌。伊朗带来的一次性冲击已经结束，接下来PPI下跌全行业传导。
• 🔴 Iran · 定价权转移 · 1 次陈述
  伊朗给中国的油价可能提价
• 🔴 US · 替代 · 1 次陈述
  Trading dependancy on US frontier model development capabilities to dependancy on China's capabilities is, not great tra
• 🔴 Japan · 供给挤压 · 1 次陈述
  Apparantly last week Japan stopped photoresist exports to China as well? (EUV, ArF)

📏 估计带 (2)

*语料内对同一量的估计区间 (≥2 个估计才成带). 不判断谁对, 只陈列.*

• 产能 2026: $25M – $50M · 2 个估计 · 最新 2026-06-28 $50M (X·cred4)
• 增速 未标期限 ⚠混合口径: 5% – 27.5% · 3 个估计 · 最新 2026-06-25 10% (X·cred4)

🔮 前瞻触发器 (forward triggers)

*这些 atom 指向可能 reprice 的前瞻事件 (无精确日期, 仅类型). 配合上面叙事状态看「上膛」程度.*

宏观 (1 · ▲0/▼1)

• 🔴 2026-05-18 · 作为主要石油买家可能限制油价极端上涨
  中国作为主要买家可能限制极端上涨

📊 程序化变化 (近 7 天)

• 已过期 forecast: 15 条

🟦 客观事实 (facts) (30)

• <a id="atom-44ccd351e2ad597a"></a>🟦 2026-06-22 X·@zerohedge ⭐ · 将10家美国公司列入出口管制清单 · 出口管制/地缘政治
  China announced on Monday that it will add 10 American firms to its export control list, including two rare earth firms, while also restricting 46 US firms from government procurement, signalling it would respond to Washington’s recent expansion of a military blacklist, even amid a broader stabilization of bilateral ties. SCMP
  tags: 好信源·好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=10 · date=2026-06-22
• <a id="atom-222c3cdac6df5b44"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@RnaudBertrand ⭐ · 日均海运原油进口削减量 · 供需/库存
  China cut its average daily waterborne oil imports by the same amount as the combined oil consumption of Germany, France and the UK.
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=等同于德国+法国+英国合计消费量
• <a id="atom-a95d190b33c604e7"></a>🟦 2026-06-15 X·@jukan05 ⭐ · cleared additional 4,000-substrate shipment in late May 2026 · 供给产能/出货量
  China cleared an additional 4,000-substrate shipment in late May 2026
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=4000 · unit=substrates · date=late May 2026
• <a id="atom-2db3d161b5b2bffc"></a>🟦 2026-06-15 X·@DrNHJ ⭐ · InP substrate export approval quantity Aug 2025 · 供给产能/出口管制
  중국은 2025년 8월 InP 기판 8,000장 수출을 승인한 데 이어
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=8,000 sheets · date=Aug 2025
• <a id="atom-ae609610883903e3"></a>🟦 2026-06-15 X·@DrNHJ ⭐ · InP substrate export approval quantity May 2026 · 供给产能/出口管制
  2026년 5월 말 4,000장 출하를 추가 허용
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=4,000 sheets · date=May 2026
• <a id="atom-4e8f1a46e58d5178"></a>🟦 2026-06-09 X·@dmjk001 ⭐ · 拟2万亿建全国算力网 · 资本开支/数据中心算力
  中国正酝酿一项约2万亿元（≈2,950亿美元）、为期五年的全国数据中心/AI算力建设计划
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=2万亿元≈2,950亿美元 · duration=五年
• <a id="atom-5be6de5a256bb216"></a>🟦 2026-06-09 X·@dmjk001 ⭐ · 要求AI芯片本土供应商占比不低于80% · 监管政策/供应链
  要求AI芯片等核心技术的本土供应商占比不低于80%
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=80%
• <a id="atom-24f7741c270e76b7"></a>🟦 2026-06-09 newsletter·Bloomberg ⭐ · AI数据中心投资计划 · 数据中心/政策
  China is preparing to spend around 2 trillion yuan ($295 billion) over the next five years on building data centers across the country
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=2万亿人民币（$295B）
• <a id="atom-6bd0b7d1f29d654e"></a>🟦 2026-06-08 X·@yicaichina ⭐ · 2026年城市地下管线升级专项拨款 · 资本开支
  China Earmarks USD23.6 Billion for Urban Underground Pipeline Upgrades in 2026
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=236亿美元 · date=2026
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-c8bd1bdc3ae64bd5"></a>🟦 2026-06-01 X·@zerohedge ⭐ · 5月制造业PMI · 供给产能/地缘政治
  China’s factory activity slowed in May, with the official manufacturing PMI edging down to 50, as expected, from 50.3 in April
  tags: 好信源·好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=50 · date=May
• <a id="atom-0ce0b503d91c7a64"></a>🟦 2026-05-17 X·@KobeissiLetter ⭐ · 批准了中国航空公司初始购买200架美国制造的波音飞机 · 订单需求
  China has approved an initial purchase of 200 American-made Boeing aircraft for Chinese airlines
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-0e06cd3b304015ff"></a>🟦 2026-05-17 X·@KobeissiLetter ⭐ · 将在2026、2027和2028年每年至少购买170亿美元美国农产品 · 订单需求
  China will purchase at least $17 billion per year of US agricultural products in 2026, 2027, and 2028
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=$17 billion · date=2026, 2027, 2028
• <a id="atom-28b2ca24b4cb7833"></a>🟦 2026-05-17 X·@yicaichina ⭐ · 调整离境退税抽检门槛 · 监管政策
  From July 1, refund applications involving purchases of under CNY10,000 (USD1,380) will be subject to spot checks rather than mandatory physical inspection.
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=CNY10,000 · date=2026-07-01
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-8c710051d9b74580"></a>🟦 2026-05-17 X·@yicaichina ⭐ · 高额退税申请维持全面查验 · 监管政策
  Meanwhile, applications for goods priced at or above CNY10,000 will continue to require full verification.
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=CNY10,000+ · date=2026-07-01
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-1879ec0c734e4ec8"></a>🟦 2026-05-14 X·@LeadingReport ⭐ · 同意购买美国波音200架喷气机 · 订单需求
  Buy 200 Boeing jets
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=200架
• <a id="atom-335023aa0ed3783c"></a>🟦 2026-05-09 X·@OmerCheeema ⭐ · 2030年全球工业生产份额预测 · 市场份额/供给产能
  2000年中国份额: 6%; 2030年中国预测份额: 45%
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=45% · date=2030
  [图: 2000年与2030年全球工业生产份额对比饼图 — 2000年中国份额: 6%; 2030年中国预测份额: 45%; 2000年美国份额: 25%; 2030年美国预测份额: 11%]
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-1396b1d54e43f86f"></a>🟦 2026-05-05 X·@Unveiled_ChinaX ⭐ · 伊朗战争导致汽油零售价涨幅 · 价格动态
  Since the war began on February 28, retail gasoline prices in China have surged 39%
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=39% · direction=up · date=2026-03-01 to 2026-05-06
• <a id="atom-d75e8b91c1bdf1a8"></a>🟦 2026-05-05 X·@Unveiled_ChinaX ⭐ · 伊朗战争导致LNG价格涨幅 · 价格动态
  LNG prices have jumped 42%
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=42% · direction=up · date=2026-03-01 to 2026-05-06
• <a id="atom-6a0a7644a242cec7"></a>🟦 2026-05-05 X·@Unveiled_ChinaX ⭐ · 伊朗战争导致农药价格涨幅 · 价格动态
  Pesticide prices in China surged 46% between February and mid-April
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=46% · direction=up · date=2026-02 to 2026-04
• <a id="atom-ef353894c0c75e9f"></a>🟦 2026-05-05 X·@Unveiled_ChinaX ⭐ · 伊朗战争导致硫酸价格涨幅 · 价格动态
  Sulfuric acid, a key fertilizer ingredient, climbed 72%
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=72% · direction=up · date=2026-02 to 2026-04
• <a id="atom-414bf4503780b7db"></a>🟦 2026-05-05 X·@Unveiled_ChinaX ⭐ · 伊朗战争导致聚丙烯塑料价格涨幅 · 价格动态
  Polypropylene plastic surged 40%
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=40% · direction=up · date=2026-02 to 2026-04
• <a id="atom-7ed3e3873896b92c"></a>🟦 2026-05-05 X·@Unveiled_ChinaX ⭐ · 规模以上制造业企业亏损比例 · 盈利能力
  In February 2026, 34% of Chinese manufacturing firms above a designated size were already running at a loss
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=34% · date=2026-02
• <a id="atom-e9ea0bd4b66039f1"></a>🟦 2026-05-05 X·@Unveiled_ChinaX ⭐ · 氦气进口依赖度 · 供给产能
  China imports 85% of its helium demand, roughly half from Qatar, which is directly affected by the war
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=85%
• <a id="atom-5b5c9af8b793585e"></a>🟦 2026-05-05 X·@Unveiled_ChinaX ⭐ · 战略石油储备规模 · 库存
  China has the world's largest strategic oil reserve at 1.4 billion barrels
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=1.4 billion barrels
• <a id="atom-95e4a68f772e8153"></a>🟦 2026-05-04 X·@zerohedge ⭐ · percentage of Iranian energy purchased · 地缘政治/能源
  CHINA HAS BEEN BUYING 90% OF IRANIAN ENERGY
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=90%
• <a id="atom-6979f5354e9ddf98"></a>🟦 2026-04-28 X·@hungjng69679118 ⭐ · 一季度经济数据超预期 · 宏观数据
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty= · date=2026Q1
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-3b49f5c17500369b"></a>🟦 2026-04-20 X·@PAstynome ⭐ · 肺结核发病率 · 公共卫生
  According to the World Bank, China’s per capita TB rate is 49 per 100K
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=每10万人49例
• <a id="atom-166cf8d61cb5377f"></a>🟦 2026-04-20 X·@KobeissiLetter ⭐ · Debt-to-GDP expected to increase to 127% · 宏观利率
  China’s Debt-to-GDP is expected to increase to 127% as the country’s deficit has widened to nearly 8% of GDP.
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=127%
  [图: 全球公共债务占GDP比例的历史与预测趋势图（IMF数据） — 2029年全球债务占GDP比例预计达到：100%; 2015年债务水平：约78%; 2020年债务水平：约97%; 2025年债务水平：约94%]
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-8e43a3e21abfc5a1"></a>🟦 2026-06-23 X·@AntoineBondaz · 全球货物顺差 2025 年 · 贸易顺差/地缘政治
  🇨🇳’s global goods surplus in 2025 was 8× larger than 🇪🇺’s.
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=8× EU
• <a id="atom-a3336d78a978968f"></a>🟦 2026-06-13 X·@KuittinenPetri · new_wind_and_solar_capacity_added_2025 · 能源
  China added an astonishing 430 GW of new wind and solar power capacity in 2025
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=430 · unit=GW · date=2025
  📷 原图

🟥 多头 takes (bullish) (30)

• <a id="atom-336e0bef56f75483"></a>🟥 2026-07-01 X·@pstAsiatech · 在霍尔木兹海峡危机中成为相对赢家 · 地缘政治/竞争格局
  China Emerges as a Relative Winner From Strait of Hormuz Crisis
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-73cb7e95cc75870b"></a>🟥 2026-06-18 X·@Brad_Setser · 隐藏的机构债持仓规模估算 · 持有量
  China's possible "hidden" Agency holdings could easily double its portfolio (and pull total Agency holdings well above $300b
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=超过3000亿美元
• <a id="atom-ea59721889b1f1a9"></a>🟥 2026-05-03 X·@gnievchenko · time to match NVDA chips · 技术路线/竞争格局
  it will take China still two years to match Nvidias chips
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=2 years · date=future
• <a id="atom-7225f400f68f793d"></a>🟥 2026-06-25 X·@Techmeme · consensus to deploy embodied AI robots · 劳动力供给/机器人部署
  As China's working-age population shrinks, a consensus is emerging that it must deploy embodied AI robots into as many tasks as possible, as soon as possible
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-10591c1885192c31"></a>🟥 2026-06-10 X·@scaling01 · AI spending over next 5 years · 资本开支/数据中心算力
  China will spend way beyond a trillion dollars over the next 5 years. You'll see.
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=beyond a trillion dollars · date=next 5 years
• <a id="atom-4384a4133ded3756"></a>🟥 2026-05-17 X·@Gaurab · 5th-gen fighter fleet size comparison vs US by 2030 · 地缘政治/竞争格局
  By 2030, China’s fifth-generation fighter fleet will outnumber the US Air Force’s F-22 and F-35A combined
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
  value: date=2030
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-4a77b1a143383a84"></a>🟥 2026-07-03 X·@PAstynome · takes Africa seriously as a market for high end medical equipment · 竞争格局
  China takes it seriously [Africa] as a market for high end medical equipment.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-d917f88aa6f24ee2"></a>🟥 2026-07-03 X·@PAstynome · only country that seriously focuses on making products and solving issues for Africa · 竞争格局
  China is the only country that takes them seriously as a market and actually focuses on making serious products for them and solving a bunch of issues that plague the continent.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-53736af9f6b742bd"></a>🟥 2026-06-30 X·@basedjensen · path to $10T+ pretraining runs · 数据中心算力/业绩指引
  China has clear path the 10T and beyond pretraining runs
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=$10T+ · date=未明确
• <a id="atom-fbcbb442811e42d7"></a>🟥 2026-06-19 X·@GlennLuk · accelerating domestic EUV developments · 技术路线
  Foreshadows impending news on Chinese domestic EUV developments.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-a62e2a6e8cbc287c"></a>🟥 2026-06-19 X·@policytensor · 未来地位 · 地缘政治
  China’s emergence as the unipole is a mathematical certainty
  tags: 好思考·好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=emerge as unipole
• <a id="atom-69b0df5a905d9ee6"></a>🟥 2026-06-19 X·@HarryStebbings · 开源模型被其他国家采用 · 技术路线
  The answer for a lot of countries may just be to take an open weights model from China, post-train or fine-tune their own version, and have that be what they start from.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-1cf7ec5d133db134"></a>🟥 2026-06-16 X·@Brad_Setser · possible renminbi appreciation under threat of European currency 301 · 汇率/地缘政治
  Could that happen again, perhaps under the threat of a European currency 301? Shahin Vallee and I argue that it is at least worth a try.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-8b704814b390bcf5"></a>🟥 2026-06-15 X·@richardturrin [老化中] · 在美国制裁AI模型的背景下 被视为赢家 · 竞争格局/地缘政治
  China is the winner.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-3648e2a25bf8403f"></a>🟥 2026-06-14 X·@DrNHJ · 对InP基板出口放宽限制 · 出口管制/供给产能
  중국, InP 기판 수출 허용으로 광통신 공급난 해소… 대만 화합물 반도체 업계 수혜 기대
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-bcf5acc74cbe0387"></a>🟥 2026-06-05 X·@bioshok3 · AI监管合作必要性 · 监管政策/地缘政治
  中国とだけ何とか協力する必要はあると思いますが、他の国や非国家アクターに対しては協力したら飴（例えばAGI企業の株式、AGIの利用権等）を、しなかったら鞭を与える戦略が良いのかなとは思います。
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-93db39ae8bbbd14c"></a>🟥 2026-06-02 X·@hsu_steve · 从伊朗战争中获得地缘战略利益 · 地缘政治
  The Iran war is a geostrategic gift to China
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: direction=gift
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-4a437e79e6fe4233"></a>🟥 2026-05-28 X·@dmjk001 · 正在研发AI代币期货市场 · 监管政策
  消息人士称中国正研发 AI 代币期货市场，与美国展开竞争
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-be43ecafec64d09d"></a>🟥 2026-05-24 X·@GlennLuk [老旧] · 基础设施投资带动生产率提升 · 基础设施/生产率
  The core economics principle he/they never focused on were productivity gains driven by infrastructure investment.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-ffb4389722f2c404"></a>🟥 2026-05-24 X·@GlennLuk [老旧] · 基础设施建设高效 · 基础设施/效率
  China was building infrastructure efficiently.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-ec072c7865b367ec"></a>🟥 2026-05-19 X·@sudoraohacker · positioned to be the global home of AI research in a few years · 竞争格局/技术路线
  I think China is positioned to be the global home of AI research in a few years
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: date=in a few years
• <a id="atom-fc3d86428461ca5b"></a>🟥 2026-05-15 X·@pstAsiatech · likely adherence to future AI agreements · 监管政策
  It is naive to think that Beijing would not adhere to a verifiable global agreement that raised guardrails around the release of frontier AI models
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=would adhere
• <a id="atom-63a41dd72d23df41"></a>🟥 2026-05-12 X·@stevehou [老化中] · preparedness for energy supply chain disruption · 地缘政治/能源
  China has been preparing for this scenario for a long time in a million different ways
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-cb36f186a0495958"></a>🟥 2026-05-07 X·@Sino_Market · 人形机器人年度销售量预测 · 出货量
  It forecast annual humanoid robot sales could exceed 28,000 units this year
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=>28,000 · date=本年度
  [图: 摩根士丹利关于人形机器人对中国制造业影响的研究报告新闻截图 — 中国全球出口份额预测(2030年): 16.5%; 今年人形机器人预测销量: 超28,000台; 2024年中国占全球工业机器人安装量比例: 约54%]
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-a25b6f4cdd5f8c9b"></a>🟥 2026-04-15 X·@teortaxesTex [老化中] · cannot ban Nvidia if freely available · 人才流动/竞争格局
  They can't actually do that if they ban Nvidia when it's freely available, 70% of researchers just leave for the US.
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-9c810a80aa735ae6"></a>🟥 2026-07-03 X·@Brad_Setser · 乘用车出口预测 · 出口
  China is heading toward 10m passenger car exports this year, or ~ 15% of all non Chinese demand
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=10m · date=2026
• <a id="atom-a41f61102d997ae4"></a>🟥 2026-06-15 X·@teortaxesTex · delivers 1.5-2x more planes lately · 供给产能/竞争格局
  My guess is that China is delivering 1.5-2x more planes lately
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=1.5-2x · date=lately
• <a id="atom-c8fb6e36bdf2d981"></a>🟥 2026-06-12 X·@teortaxesTex · 950DT产能预期 · 供给产能
  100 SuperPODs is 820K Ascend 950DTs. That's actually above what's expected
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=above expected · date=2026
• <a id="atom-46c263b7f1196d4a"></a>🟥 2026-06-12 X·@teortaxesTex · Ascend 950芯片产量预测 · 出货量
  they'll make well over 1M Hopper class chips this year
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=well over 1M · date=2026
• <a id="atom-1289b538fb81efba"></a>🟥 2026-06-08 X·@teortaxesTex · 年度贸易顺差 · 贸易顺差
  On track to another $1.2T trade surplus this year
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=$1.2T · date=2026年
  [图: 中国5月份进出口及贸易顺差数据的新闻文本截图 — 5月出口额: US$376.78 billion; 5月出口同比增长: 19.4%; 5月进口额: US$271.35 billion; 5月进口同比增长: 27.4%; 5月贸易顺差: US$105.43 billion]
  📷 原图

🟥 空头 takes (bearish) (30)

• <a id="atom-75fd01518710f917"></a>🟥 2026-06-30 X·@teortaxesTex · should be spending like $1.5T/year to keep up · 资本开支/竞争追赶
  Resource-wise, China should be spending like $1.5T/year to keep up.
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=$1.5T · date=per year
• <a id="atom-2692c2bcd5962e63"></a>🟥 2026-06-11 X·@DrNHJ ⭐ · InP 를 전략적 무기로 활용 · 出口管制/地缘政治
  베이징은 희토류에 이어 인듐 인산염을 '소재 공급망의 병목(materials chokepoint)'으로 삼아 전략적 무기로 활용
  tags: 好思考·好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-1eab512fda24f7db"></a>🟥 2026-06-11 X·@pstAsiatech ⭐ · 对磷化铟出口的管控 · 出口管制/供应链
  China's control over indium phosphide exports threatens AI data centre rollout
  tags: 好观点·好思考·好问题 · → daily
  value: direction=threatens
• <a id="atom-466adffa69c5a2c2"></a>🟥 2026-05-24 X·@Kakabhushundi · 人口历史与预测 · 人口趋势
  Communist China might be the first superpower which comes with an expiration date
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=2021年: 1.4126 billion; 1950年: ~550M; 2100年: ~800M; 峰值: ~1.4B · date=1950-2100
  [图: 中国1950年至2100年历史与预测总人口趋势图 — 2021年人口: 1.4126 billion; 1950年人口: 约5.5亿; 2100年预测人口: 约8亿; 预测峰值人口: 约14亿]
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-3d6b2420daff3753"></a>🟥 2026-06-11 X·@JChengWSJ · 经济增长模式需要改变 · 地缘政治/宏观经济
  For its own sake, China should change its growth model…On the face of it China’s export triumphs should help it ameliorate its domestic economic weakness. Instead the two seem mutually reinforcing.
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-b20c68262485dd42"></a>🟥 2026-06-03 X·@scmallaby · 不希望积累更多美元债券 · 地缘政治/外汇储备
  China would rather not accumulate more dollar bonds: these can be frozen, as Russia discovered after invading Ukraine, and what’s more US inflation is eating into returns
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-fc095aaf4954e9c9"></a>🟥 2026-06-03 X·@scmallaby · 不希望将更多资源投入一带一路 · 地缘政治
  China would rather not channel more resources into its Belt and Road initiative: as a technique for accumulating friends and influence, this has been a bust
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-5c54402915aa57cf"></a>🟥 2026-05-28 X·@Brad_Setser · 出口规模过大 · 地缘政治/贸易关税
  concern about China's unbalanced economy and outsized exports are global
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
  [图: 该折线图展示了2000年至2025年间中国及香港、亚洲新兴工业体、东盟、日本、爱尔兰及除爱尔兰外欧盟的滚动四个季度海关商品贸易额（单位：十亿美元）的变化趋势。 — 中国及香港（China&HK）在2025年第四季度达到约1100十亿美元; 除爱尔兰外的欧盟（EU ex Ireland）在2022年达到约-500十亿美元的低谷; 亚洲新兴工业体（NIE
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-00082c855f5c861e"></a>🟥 2026-05-05 X·@pstAsiatech [老化中] · is scapegoat for US data center backlash · 地缘政治
  China becomes a scapegoat for US data center backlash
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty= · date=
• <a id="atom-c9b1085169b6388c"></a>🟥 2026-04-26 X·@yishan [老化中] · AI 开源战略 · 技术路线/竞争格局
  China is successfully doing what the original Meta strategy was behind open sourcing Llama: neutralize the advantage of closed-source incumbents by open-sourcing a good-enough alternative.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-fae0284770fe68ed"></a>🟥 2026-07-02 X·@Brad_Setser · 面临被类似冲击暴露的风险判断 · 地缘政治/风险暴露
  Would think that smart Chinese thinkers would recognize China's own growing risk of being exposed to the same kind of shock.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-f314e0794c6fb319"></a>🟥 2026-06-30 X·@occamsbulldog · used TSMC chips and smuggled HBM to evade export controls · 出口管制/供应链
  this is a result of China evading export controls and using TSMC chips and smuggled HBM
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-6242ec67277c344d"></a>🟥 2026-06-25 X·@Brad_Setser · current account surplus comparison vs euro area 2025 · 经常账户
  way below China's surplus
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: direction=above
  [图: 欧元区经常账户余额的地理细分预测图表（占GDP百分比，2024年与2025年） — 2024年总经常账户余额: 约2.7% of GDP; 2025年总经常账户余额: 约1.7% of GDP; 2025年对美国经常账户余额: 约-0.4% of GDP; 2025年对中国经常账户余额: 约-1.0% of GDP; 2025年对英国经常账户余额:
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-f58aefed023845bb"></a>🟥 2026-06-20 X·@crypt0lake · 对德国制造业的竞争影响 · 竞争格局/供给产能
  europe is absolutely not ready for the manufacturing crunch that is coming, every estimate is conservative, china is going to completely devour germany
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-68e40b2f036fca0d"></a>🟥 2026-06-13 X·@Brad_Setser · surplus rising fast right now much faster than US deficit · 经常账户/贸易差额
  China's surplus is rising fast right now, much faster than the US deficit
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
• <a id="atom-06cc921cffda51de"></a>🟥 2026-06-11 X·@emollick · regulation of Mythos-class models release · 技术路线/监管政策
  At some point, China will regulate release of Mythos-class models or the companies making open weights models will switch to closed.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-3e324724cef0b520"></a>🟥 2026-06-09 X·@StevenGlinert · 可能控制全球电池、机器人和芯片生产 · 地缘政治/竞争格局
  We have not yet grappled with the very real possibility in which China, in a post Taiwan takeover world, controls global battery production, global robot production, and global chip production.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-89b7c241a7ebe95e"></a>🟥 2026-06-09 X·@RambutanRed · 五月贸易数据 · 贸易数据/地缘政治
  More narrative violation in China's May trade numbers.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: direction=narrative violation
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-d757c6e6e7ef8a19"></a>🟥 2026-06-05 X·@felix375 · DUV光刻机限制与良率 · 供给产能/出口管制
  China has limited immersion DUV machines and they have terrible yields so China can not possibly build that many chips to fulfill that supercluster
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-add2b2bb7dddde3e"></a>🟥 2026-05-28 X·@Brad_Setser · 境内市场操纵 · 竞争格局/监管政策
  a rigged domestic market
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-1e595016229c9174"></a>🟥 2026-05-28 X·@Brad_Setser · 汇率实践调查 · 汇率/地缘政治
  a Trump style investigation into China's currency practices would, I think, get China's attention, and demonstrate that Europe is serious about a level playing field
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-08c8b81de09ba370"></a>🟥 2026-05-19 X·@ChrisRMcGuire · AI对话目标 · 地缘政治/技术路线
  China's primary interest isn't AI safety, it's catching up to the US in AI. China views an AI dialogue as a means to close the gap with the US.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-eced2b6f1e51b29a"></a>🟥 2026-05-16 X·@Brad_Setser · 经常账户盈余规模预判 · 地缘政治
  world cannot easily accomodate a $2-3 trillion Chinese surplus
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=2-3万亿美元
  [图: 展示挪威、新加坡、中国台湾和中国大陆五年平均国民储蓄率与经常账户余额对比的柱状图 — 中国国民储蓄率: 约43.5%; 中国经常账户余额: 约2.3%; 中国台湾国民储蓄率: 约43.3%; 挪威经常账户余额: 约17.7%; 新加坡国民储蓄率: 约40.0%]
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-62934ba9b80ea0f1"></a>🟥 2026-05-16 X·@Brad_Setser · 制造业盈余规模预判 · 出口管制
  & the world cannot easily accomodate a $2-3 trillion Chinese surplus ($3-4 trillion manufacturing surplus)
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=3-4万亿美元
  [图: 展示挪威、新加坡、中国台湾和中国大陆五年平均国民储蓄率与经常账户余额对比的柱状图 — 中国国民储蓄率: 约43.5%; 中国经常账户余额: 约2.3%; 中国台湾国民储蓄率: 约43.3%; 挪威经常账户余额: 约17.7%; 新加坡国民储蓄率: 约40.0%]
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-c57a94b6fbeae2cf"></a>🟥 2026-05-09 X·@glengarryrd · 未来几年夺取台积电控制权的概率至少5% · 地缘政治/监管政策
  imo if you're managing money you should be assigning at least a 5% chance that China seizes control of TSMC in the next few years
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=5% · date=未来几年
• <a id="atom-7b25a417d8845aed"></a>🟥 2026-05-02 X·@MaybeSoland [老化中] · developing more advanced chip industry due to export controls · 出口管制/竞争格局
  previous export controls led the Chinese to hammer on developing their own chips which led to them developing a more advanced industry
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-10d4c98b43d522fe"></a>🟥 2026-04-20 X·@semi_journal_jp [老化中] · AI用半導体内製 · 技术路线
  AI用の半導体内製を急ぐ中国の開発を遅らせる
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-1cae6186080abc69"></a>🟥 2026-04-17 X·@yacineMTB · chip wars outcome · 竞争格局/出口管制
  China is going to win the chip wars
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: direction=win
• <a id="atom-ea5e22b754c4469d"></a>🟥 2026-04-22 X·@zerohedge [老化中] · 石油卖出规模 · 地缘政治
  China "Aggressively" Selling Oil In Recent Weeks
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=aggressively · date=recent weeks
• <a id="atom-1e5a28519c9076be"></a>🟥 2026-06-11 X·@Brad_Setser · undervaluation based on IMF current account model · 估值/汇率
  My estimates of China's undervaluation used the methodology of the IMF's current account model (adjusted for China's underreported current account, but even as reported it generates a 20% undervaluation)
  tags: 好数字 · → daily

🟥 中性 takes (neutral) (20)

• <a id="atom-0eaa6a366ec20821"></a>🟥 2026-04-30 X·@EpochAIResearch [已过期] · AI算力中走私占比上限 · 出口管制/数据中心算力
  The upper bound of our estimate would mean that, by the end of 2025, more than half of China's AI compute had been smuggled.
  tags: 好数字·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=>50% · date=end of 2025
• <a id="atom-fbbc47adb7d6c9bf"></a>🟥 2026-06-29 X·@GlennLuk · Gini coefficients peaked around 2019 · 基尼系数/不平等
  Once we factor in wealth/capital income, socioeconomic inequality did not actually peak in China until around 2019!
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: date=2019
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-ade4cffd740f64ee"></a>🟥 2026-06-18 X·@Brad_Setser · 机构债持仓上限估算 · 持有量
  There could be more agencies ($500b is the upper limit, or ~ 15% of reserves)
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=5000亿美元 · pct=15%
• <a id="atom-b1af291ec646382c"></a>🟥 2026-05-15 X·@Brad_Setser · real surplus could be up to $300b higher · 营收/地缘政治
  The 'real' Chinese surplus could be up to $300b higher -- tis crazy.
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=$300B · date=2026
• <a id="atom-d92db553c81bfc48"></a>🟥 2026-05-04 X·@jukan05 ⭐ · EUV 替代光源技术原型 · 技术路线/先进制程
  A prototype could emerge as early as the mid-2030s
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=prototype · date=mid-2030s
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-ebaa86e3131e195b"></a>🟥 2026-06-23 卖·BofA Brian Fenske · CFE CAGR预测 · 需求
  China CFE growing at a 10% CAGR in that time.
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=10% CAGR CY25-30
• <a id="atom-e0837d5482fe64fb"></a>🟥 2026-06-16 X·@Brad_Setser · possible policy evolution to raise internal household demand if loses export growth safety valve · 消费需求/地缘政治
  China will never reform so as to raise internal household demand -- maybe, but to me it is worth seeing how Chinese policy evolves if it loses the safety valve of ~ 2 pp (20% of GDP, 10% volume growth) in growth from exports
  tags: 好思考·好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-870653f623fdce54"></a>🟥 2026-06-04 X·@SinaMin_CN · built a moat around processing on global scale · 竞争格局/技术路线
  They've built a moat around processing on global scale that took them decades.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-4829fecefac06bf5"></a>🟥 2026-06-03 X·@Brad_Setser · 美元资产配置 · 外汇储备/监管政策
  staying out of the US custodial data (the TIC data) is easy, staying out of the dollar by contrast is hard
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-69fe97a0d1f09061"></a>🟥 2026-05-25 X·@woke8yearold · AGI 控制角色 · AGI控制/地缘政治
  The future of the world will be decided by how the AI game plays out in those two powers
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-cd78b39bdbe956f1"></a>🟥 2026-05-21 X·@Brad_Setser · industrial policy to substitute German imports · 工业政策
  China had a rather active industrial policy to substitute Chinese production for German imports (including by buying and digesting Kuka)
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-d27e028c7809ce52"></a>🟥 2026-04-30 X·@teortaxesTex · 替代外资品牌所需时间 · 竞争格局/供给产能
  scaling up production to the point of displacing foreign brands will take a while
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: direction=需要一段时间
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-e94b02e334429bfa"></a>🟥 2026-06-10 X·@gnievchenko · 数据中心资本开支计划 · 资本开支
  Chinese gov is preparing to spend ~$300bn on data centre buildout
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=~$300bn · date=2026-06-10
• <a id="atom-5922111d9c9f632a"></a>🟥 2026-05-19 X·@RYANHINGSHING · 開始做到DDR5了 · 供给产能
  中國開始做到DDR5了
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
• <a id="atom-fc689405ad51f35f"></a>🟥 2026-06-24 卖·MS Tom Wigg · memory market strategy
  The pricing suggests China currently has no interest in dumping memory.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-bb8bb6b78866ff0a"></a>🟥 2026-07-01 X·@Brad_Setser · 金融账户开放程度 · 汇率
  in reality china neither has an open financial account nor a floating currency and won't any time soon
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: status=not open
• <a id="atom-e1b547f6079ed88a"></a>🟥 2026-07-01 X·@Brad_Setser · 汇率浮动状态 · 汇率
  in reality china neither has an open financial account nor a floating currency and won't any time soon
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: status=not floating
• <a id="atom-ad8f897e803c0041"></a>🟥 2026-06-27 X·@teortaxesTex · building lens for EUV · 技术路线
  indeed they are building the lens too
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-718e14b48f0ff459"></a>🟥 2026-06-26 X·@bengoertzel · open source is way to remain globally relevant · 竞争格局/地缘政治
  Open source is China's way to remain globally relevant in the AI field now, while they are say 6 months behind the top US commercial AI firms
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-a29771a48db3b20c"></a>🟥 2026-06-26 X·@yicaichina · 参与制定全球首个自动驾驶技术法规 · 监管政策
  China Played Leading Role in Formulation of World's First Technical Regulation for Autonomous Driving
  tags: 好信源 · → daily

🟦 新闻流 (squawk · 40)

⏱ 时间轴 (近 20)

• 🟥 2026-07-03 · narrative · EV行业崛起影响 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-03 · forecast · 乘用车出口预测 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-03 · fact · 估计闲置产能 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-03 · fact · 对欧电池零部件关税影响 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-03 · narrative · 对本地化内容要求 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-03 · fact · 从荷兰大量采购光刻设备 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-03 · narrative · 若自产领先芯片将减少全球进口 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-03 · fact · 汽车领域存在大量国家干预 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-03 · narrative · takes Africa seriously as a market for high end medical equi · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-03 · narrative · only country that seriously focuses on making products and s · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-03 · fact · spending millions on Buddhism for influence in Asia · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-03 · narrative · 对美出口占GDP百分比 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-03 · fact · 全球出口数据未受美国关税影响 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-03 · fact · 领土主张 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-03 · fact · fast-track financing limit for listed companies · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-03 · position · calls for unhindered flow of shipping through Strait of Horm · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-03 · narrative · AI芯片产量增长 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-03 · narrative · AI芯片生产爬坡速度对比美国 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-03 · narrative · AI芯片质量 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-03 · forecast · 对美国及盟友的报复行动可能性 · → daily

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