AI capex

270 atoms · 跨 71 天 · 首见 2026-04-03 · 最近 2026-07-03

三色: 🟦 fact 48 · 🟥 take 222 · stance ▲112/▼86/◆41

叙事状态: 🍂 fading (退潮) · 💤 沉寂 · 策展近14d 0 atom · 🐦 X 近14d 15

状态只算低频策展源 (群/卖方); X firehose 仅作背景音量

来源: 群 1 · X 269

时态: fresh:216 · aging:45 · stale:9

标签: 好观点:167 · 好思考:71 · 好数字:61 · 好信源:26 · 好问题:7

别名 (合并): AI Capex · AI 投资

🟨 AI 综合 · junior analyst 概览

🧭 拥挤度 (一人一票): ▲ 64 位作者 (KOL63 · 媒体1) vs ▼ 46 位作者 (KOL46) + 群 1 条

⚖️ 多头 63/64 来自KOL

💢 核心分歧 (3 轴)

1. 技术路线 成本下降 vs 自我坍塌

*topic: 资本开支/盈利能力/竞争格局/技术路线 · 62 bull vs 57 bear*

🟢 bullish 侧:

• <a id="atom-9dea199371e12275"></a>2026-04-19 X·@Alisvolatprop12 [老化中] · 受益对象 · 资本开支/合作客户
  강도가 다를 수 있겠지만 수혜 대상 중 하나죠
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-0b4af009372e47fb"></a>2026-04-25 X·@zerohedge [老化中] · 市场投票方向 · 资本开支
  Forget The Headline Roulette, Goldman Partner Says Markets Are Voting For AI Infrastructure 2.0
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-aca3307a7b298e06"></a>2026-04-27 X·@zerohedge [老化中] · 是驱动股票的唯一因素 · 资本开支/仓位情绪
  Equities are being driven by one thing…AI spend.
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-474390208e293b97"></a>2026-04-29 X·@munster_gene · CY26 平均增速预期 · 资本开支
  we should see the CY26 average growth inch up tonight from 64% to just below 70%
  tags: 好数字·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=64% to just below 70% · date=CY26
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-2d1c249dc0219145"></a>2026-04-29 X·@PatrickMoorhead [老旧] · 需要被重申 · 资本开支
  The AI trade does not need perfect earnings tonight. It needs three things: capex reaffirmed, cloud growth accelerating or holding high, and management teams giving credible evidence that AI demand is supply-constrained rather than hype-constrained. If we get that, the AI infrastructure trade has legs.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily

🔴 bearish 侧:

• <a id="atom-9bb0422001fc2085"></a>2026-04-15 X·@Rick_Zullo [老化中] · 有限资源认知 · 资本开支
  pretending that we have limitless resources and capital
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-ce3e2512a7842907"></a>2026-04-15 X·@theinformation [老化中] · spending crowding out traditional software fears · 资本开支/竞争格局
  fears that AI spending will crowd out traditional software are hitting tech stocks.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-5c4749eb6942f672"></a>2026-04-16 X·@stevehou · full repeat of the DotCom bubble · 资本开支/AI泡沫
  predicted and explained why we'd have a 'full repeat of the DotCom bubble' with AI
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-08c5a2b5f8ccb467"></a>2026-04-28 X·@FirstSquawk [老化中] · returns concern · 资本开支/业绩指引
  CONCERNS GREW OVER WHETHER MASSIVE AI INVESTMENTS WILL DELIVER RETURNS
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-d3752873de02da6d"></a>2026-04-29 X·@suchenzang [老化中] · 维持AI领先地位的成本 · 资本开支/技术路线
  it's expensive to keep up with AI
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=expensive · direction=high
  📷 原图

2. 算力需求 持续飙升 vs 过度建设

*topic: 数据中心算力/供给产能 · 26 bull vs 15 bear*

🟢 bullish 侧:

• <a id="atom-b254e104ebde6e14"></a>2026-04-24 X·@yicaichina · 第四代自动驾驶重卡量产交付 · 产品发布/供给产能
  its fourth-generation autonomous heavy-duty trucks have already been rolled-out the mass production line, adding that they will commence cargo operations later this year.
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=rolled out · date=2026-04-24
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-014b307674daa8c4"></a>2026-04-28 X·@zephyr_z9 ⭐ · 2027-28周期峰值规模 · 资本开支/数据中心算力
  the peak will be much bigger this time (2027-28)
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: date=2027-28 · direction=much bigger
• <a id="atom-eb958f97baa64a3e"></a>2026-04-24 X·@zephyr_z9 [老化中] · 计算差距倍数 · 数据中心算力/技术路线
  Massive compute gap At least 40x-80x
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=40x-80x · direction=gap
• <a id="atom-95298453a06b3759"></a>2026-05-04 X·@BenBajarin · AI dedicated revenue 2026 forecast · 营收预测/数据中心算力
  It is likely that the number will be above $300B this year as this number inevitably catches up with capex.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=above $300B · date=2026
• <a id="atom-d9f8972b8d736d8a"></a>2026-05-11 X·@Nice_Stock_ [老化中] · 推理与token生产优化重要性提升 · 技术路线/数据中心算力
  학습보다는 추론 그리고 토큰 생산 최적화가 중요해지는 시대👍
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily

🔴 bearish 侧:

• <a id="atom-97d3a6b8945f153e"></a>2026-05-05 X·@WSTAnalystApe [老化中] · 需求影響 · 资本开支/数据中心算力
  不然換成中國公司發 AI 股明天又要被嚇到尿褲子，說不用那麼多算力
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=减少
• <a id="atom-a543ad876fbfd552"></a>2026-05-08 X·@stevehou · 过度建设判断 · 资本开支/供给产能
  Overbuild/exuberance is inevitable bc we won’t know until we’ve hit it.
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  value: direction=必然
• <a id="atom-a8bb973fd5e8e092"></a>2026-05-16 X·@HyperTechInvest · 供应状况 · 供给产能/资本开支
  Memory and power shortages will worsen before they get better
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=supply cannot catch up with demand · date=2026-05-16
• <a id="atom-914b844ab6330546"></a>2026-05-19 X·@zerohedge · monetization doubts returning · 数据中心算力
  Maybe there is an element of the returning doubts over the monetization of AI
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-163e2b04efe5f728"></a>2026-05-25 X·@poezhao0605 · 全球AI建设集中了先进制造能力于GPU和HBM · 供给产能/记忆体周期
  The global AI buildout concentrates advanced manufacturing on GPUs and HBM.
  tags: 好观点 · → daily

3. 订单需求 价格强势 vs 产能过剩降价

*topic: 订单需求/价格动态 · 15 bull vs 6 bear*

🟢 bullish 侧:

• <a id="atom-019772cad52309cb"></a>2026-04-27 X·@DrNHJ ⭐ · 价格强势持续性判断 · 资本开支/订单需求
  AI 투자가 최고 수준으로 유지되는 한 가격 강세가 지속될 것으로 예상
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: date=NA
• <a id="atom-2e41f64171d2ef95"></a>2026-04-28 X·@zephyr_z9 · 当前水平相对于2022-23周期峰值 · 资本开支/订单需求
  We haven't even reached the 2022-23 peak
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=below
• <a id="atom-7ea53d39de17771e"></a>2026-05-08 X·@trendforce [老化中] · 驱动ABF基板需求趋势 · 订单需求/数据中心算力
  AI-driven packaging demand continues to rise
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-b2f61fc0c21433d7"></a>2026-05-19 X·@scaling01 ⭐ · intelligence cost trend · 价格动态/技术路线
  intelligence too cheap to meter
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-524a8effc1b75064"></a>2026-05-23 X·@dalibali2 · YTD AI and capacity has exceeded expectations · 资本开支/订单需求
  YTD AI and capacity has exceeded everyone’s expectations
  tags: 好观点 · → daily

🔴 bearish 侧:

• <a id="atom-80c8c730e1ea8018"></a>2026-05-06 X·@holzzak777 [老化中] · 매출이 떨어질 이유가 없는 신 · 订单需求/仓位情绪
  절대 매출이 떨어질 이유가 없는 "신" 이라는 애들 많았다
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-4e74d0a80d0ddbbb"></a>2026-05-11 X·@AlphaExponent · oversized capacity buildout will drive pricing down to just above cost · 供给产能/价格动态
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-dcde90745c85a8de"></a>2026-05-18 X·@nic_carter · 对电价的影响 · 价格动态
  如果 AI 驱动电价，会看到 cluster top-right。你看不到。
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-d769b80b7df86c52"></a>2026-05-27 X·@orrdavid · demand for compute drops after AI efficiency improves · 订单需求
  Once set up, demand for compute drops.
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-af95b933d330dca4"></a>2026-06-16 X·@hypersoren · 智能消费上限 · 订单需求/技术路线
  every good has an upper bound of intelligence consumption—your lawnmower doesn’t need gpt-14
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily

🔗 因果传导 (causal map)

*AI capex 在产业链上的传导关系. 边是群里/卖方陈述的因果 (非 AI 推断), 数字 = 几条 atom 支撑. 点 atom 溯源.*

↓ 下游·近期陈述 (4)

• 🔴 customer demand · 需求拉动 · 1 次陈述
  The main risk they see is that elevated memory prices could act as a tax on AI capex, hurting customer demand.
• 🟢 SMRs · 需求拉动 · 1 次陈述
  SMRs are the ultimate solution to AI’s biggest bottleneck: energy.
• ⚪ global economy · 传导 · 1 次陈述
  The financial process pulling the models forward already kicked off last year. There’s no way out now. It’s either globa
• 🔴 rest of the economy · 供给挤压 · 1 次陈述
  the deluge of investment, much of which is plowed into data centers, is beginning to starve the rest of the economy of t

↑ 上游·近期陈述 (4)

• 🔴 Memory prices · 成本传导 · 1 次陈述
  The main risk they see is that elevated memory prices could act as a tax on AI capex, hurting customer demand.
• 🔴 compute shortage · 供给挤压 · 1 次陈述
  if u have cost of capex increasing due to compute shortage+SAASpocalypse resulting in token spends being capped and hype
• 🔴 large customers · 需求拉动 · 1 次陈述
  as bills scaled up, large customers began to place more weight on ROI, budget caps, approval mechanisms, and model routi
• 🔴 存储企业 · 成本传导 · 1 次陈述
  最近市场已经隐隐的表现出了这种不平衡问题甚至对AI capex本身的抑制，如果一个行业的超高净利润是负外部性，那合理性就站不住脚。

📏 估计带 (1)

*语料内对同一量的估计区间 (≥2 个估计才成带). 不判断谁对, 只陈列.*

• Capex 未标期限 ⚠混合口径: $19.4B – $600B · 2 个估计 · 最新 2026-06-26 $19.4B (X·cred5)

🟦 客观事实 (facts) (30)

• <a id="atom-781895849cf4c5d1"></a>🟦 2026-06-25 X·@jukan05 ⭐ · PJM grid interconnection queues exceed five years for new data centers · 供给产能/地缘政治
  Some grid interconnection queues now exceed five years for newly proposed data centers
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=5 years
• <a id="atom-39bdd1875730cb31"></a>🟦 2026-06-25 X·@jukan05 ⭐ · average lead time for large power transformers stretched to ~2.5 years as of mid 2025 · 供给产能
  As of mid 2025, the average lead time for large power transformers had stretched to about 2.5 years
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=2.5 years · date=mid 2025
• <a id="atom-9353bda51412cad8"></a>🟦 2026-06-25 X·@jukan05 ⭐ · lead time for 345kV-765kV transformers four to five years, double 2020 levels · 供给产能
  transformers in the 345kV to 765kV voltage class take four to five years, roughly double the lead times seen in 2020
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=4-5 years
• <a id="atom-04b702693266b2c5"></a>🟦 2026-06-09 X·@dmjk001 ⭐ · 核心物料订单已锁到28年，NCNR条款较多 · 资本开支
  产业观察到核心物料订单已经锁到28年，NCNR条款较多
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-814e55806d6893b5"></a>🟦 2026-05-05 X·@Aaronwei3n ⭐ · capex forecast · 资本开支
  Capex $52~56 billion
  tags: 好数字·好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=$52~56B · date=2026
• <a id="atom-3a3c4d4f67b8793d"></a>🟦 2026-05-20 X·@tuolaji2024 · 2030 年前全球规模 · 资本开支/数据中心算力
  英伟达 1QFY27 财报总结 - 2030 年前全球 AI Capex 3-4 万亿美元
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=3-4 万亿美元 · date=2030 年前
• <a id="atom-b254e104ebde6e14"></a>🟦 2026-04-24 X·@yicaichina · 第四代自动驾驶重卡量产交付 · 产品发布/供给产能
  its fourth-generation autonomous heavy-duty trucks have already been rolled-out the mass production line, adding that they will commence cargo operations later this year.
  tags: 好数字·好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=rolled out · date=2026-04-24
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-ccb0816d748cdbb0"></a>🟦 2026-05-26 X·@zerohedge [老旧] · 支出规模 · 资本开支
  $800 Billion In AI Capex Spending
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=$800B
• <a id="atom-4592e7564c288821"></a>🟦 2026-06-19 X·@zerohedge · 企业限制AI使用 · 资本开支/成本压力
  companies rein in AI usage as costs strain budgets
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=下降
• <a id="atom-cd82382c11c27deb"></a>🟦 2026-06-23 X·@ShanghaoJin · 钱在哪问题被Anthropic+OAI ARR明年4000亿疯狂预期盖过 · 营收预测/资本开支
  现在“钱在哪”这个问题被Anthropic + OAI ARR 明年4000亿疯狂预期给盖过去了
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=4000亿 · date=明年
• <a id="atom-6d6c88f58ad01f0b"></a>🟦 2026-06-12 X·@theinformation ⭐ · 现金流压力 · 资本开支/现金流
  Data centers, chips and AI talent are consuming so much cash that buybacks, dividends and new financing plans are coming under pressure
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: direction=consuming so much cash that buybacks, dividends and new financing plans are coming under pressure
• <a id="atom-62210acc7833e8f7"></a>🟦 2026-05-12 X·@stevehou · 累计规模达到万亿级别 · 资本开支
  AI capex 包括在建项目累计达到万亿级别
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=trillions · date=now (2026-05-12)
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-c8debf35a17840dd"></a>🟦 2026-06-18 X·@KobeissiLetter · aggregate bond issuance by tech companies · 资本开支
  Alphabet, $GOOGL, Amazon, $AMZN, Meta, $META, Oracle, $ORCL, and Salesforce, $CRM, collectively raising ~$132 billion in investment-grade bonds this year alone.
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=~$132 billion · date=2026
  [图: 各大科技公司（Alphabet、Amazon、Meta、Oracle、Nvidia）的债券发行规模及币种分布条形图 — Nvidia债券发行额: 250亿美元; Alphabet债券发行额: 约900亿美元; Amazon债券发行额: 约830亿美元; Meta债券发行额: 约550亿美元; Oracle债券发行额: 约510亿美元]
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-0d6bc8f06032ac0d"></a>🟦 2026-06-17 X·@zephyr_z9 · 每年预计支出 · 资本开支
  Forecasted spend per year is only $3-500 million
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=$3-500 million · date=per year
• <a id="atom-77d423aedbd78bd2"></a>🟦 2026-06-03 X·@zerohedge · 累计资本开支 · 资本开支
  five months later we are up to $700BN
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=$700BN
• <a id="atom-a3dc0c3d7c9875de"></a>🟦 2026-05-20 X·@zerohedge · Annual spending forecast · 资本开支
  AI SPENDING TO RTEACH $3-4 TRILLION ANNUALLY
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=$3-4 trillion · date=annual
• <a id="atom-4a809d617749bde6"></a>🟦 2026-05-05 X·@zerohedge · 2027 capex budgets · 资本开支
  The existing $1.1 trillion in 2027 capex budgets
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=$1.1 trillion · date=2027
• <a id="atom-f1cda38785fdbd25"></a>🟦 2026-05-03 X·@zerohedge · 创纪录 · 资本开支
  record AI capex
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: direction=加速
  [图: 标普500指数历史及预测的季度每股收益（EPS）同比增速图表 — Q1 2026 整体指数EPS增速预测值: 25%; Q1 2026 排除亚马逊和谷歌其他收入后的EPS增速预测值: 16%; Q1 2026 中位数股票EPS增速预测值: 11%; Q4 2025 整体指数EPS增速: 13%; Q4 2025 中位数股票EPS增速: 9%]
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-104a982f65c59e53"></a>🟦 2026-05-03 X·@zerohedge · IG deb funding volume · 融资/资本开支
  $400 billion in gross AI-related supply in the USD IG and HY markets since mid-2025
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=$400B · date=since mid-2025
• <a id="atom-47e8cc5a779012b7"></a>🟦 2026-06-25 X·@jukan05 · hyperscalers and data center developers continue investing aggressively in new AI infrastructure · 资本开支
  Hyperscalers and data center developers continue to invest aggressively in new AI infrastructure
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-7334064441c3156f"></a>🟦 2026-06-25 X·@jukan05 · gigawatt scale campuses in North America expected online before end of 2026 · 数据中心算力
  several gigawatt scale campuses across North America are expected to come online before the end of 2026
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
  value: date=end of 2026
• <a id="atom-615dae24d9006b14"></a>🟦 2026-06-25 X·@jukan05 · deployment timelines hinge on supply side constraints including memory and CPU shortage · 供给产能
  Actual deployment timelines...hinge on a number of supply side constraints, including the ongoing shortage of key server components such as memory and CPUs
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-66b5e84646610ba0"></a>🟦 2026-06-25 X·@jukan05 · biggest bottleneck for US data center projects is transmission, not generation · 供给产能/监管政策
  the biggest bottleneck lies in transmission...most U.S. power markets have ample generation capacity
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-9e71be0118d7ec8e"></a>🟦 2026-06-25 X·@jukan05 · PJM and other RTOs working with US federal government to accelerate grid interconnection · 监管政策
  PJM and several other regional transmission organizations are working with the U.S. federal government to accelerate the grid interconnection process
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-38d68640bef878da"></a>🟦 2026-06-02 X·@BenBajarin · AI infrastructure investment spending relative to early cloud cycle · 资本开支
  early spending already tracking ~10x above prior early cloud cycle spend
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=~10x above prior early cloud cycle spend · direction=above
• <a id="atom-ccc6eeae23259672"></a>🟦 2026-05-16 X·@MetacriticCap · 供需状况 · 供给产能/数据中心算力
  fundamental shortages of watts and wafers
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: direction=短缺
• <a id="atom-d3cf50573bbde1dc"></a>🟦 2026-06-27 X·@swanand · capex 规模 · 资本开支/数据中心算力_
  If we’re spending trillions in capex for them maybe
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=trillions
• <a id="atom-c8248692face59ea"></a>🟦 2026-06-26 X·@euphoria_707 · 2027년 증설 기가와트 당 매출 전제 · 资本开支/营收
  글로벌 IB들은 2027년까지 약 15GW의 데이터센터 증설을 가정합니다. 기가와트당 매출 100억~150억 달러를 적용하면
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=100억~150억 달러
• <a id="atom-1dd578c46336bbb6"></a>🟦 2026-06-24 X·@SKhynix · 过去两年累计投资额 · 资本开支
  More than $600B has been invested in AI over the past two years.
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=$600B+ · date=过去两年
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-b1fccacdec876923"></a>🟦 2026-06-21 X·@Vengineer · 企业AI支出占收入比例 · 资本开支
  生成AIに聞いたら、AIに各社がかけられる費用は売上の1%
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=1% · date=2026-06-21

🟥 多头 takes (bullish) (30)

• <a id="atom-9e62ccf3432cbb79"></a>🟥 2026-06-26 X·@jukan05 · 计划支出规模 · 资本开支
  $648 billion… but since it’s going to be spent over 10 years, I think it’s a reasonable scale.
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=$648B · date=10 years
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-2e41f64171d2ef95"></a>🟥 2026-04-28 X·@zephyr_z9 · 当前水平相对于2022-23周期峰值 · 资本开支/订单需求
  We haven't even reached the 2022-23 peak
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: direction=below
• <a id="atom-9cfd68d39ddab788"></a>🟥 2026-06-09 X·@HawkinsEntrekin · revenue required per year · 资本开支/营收
  Its about ~50% btw in revenues for easy math (actually probably higher). So $700b in capex/yr needs $350 B in rev, per year.
  tags: 好数字·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=~50% · date=
• <a id="atom-86193165f5940c12"></a>🟥 2026-06-06 X·@volisdead · 加速周期判断 · 资本开支
  accelerating the capex cycle in '26 and '27. Think we'll see 2.5T over those two years.
  tags: 好思考·好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=2.5T · date=2026-2027
• <a id="atom-2c54090eabe09687"></a>🟥 2026-05-24 X·@Alisvolatprop12 · TAM年增长率范围 · TAM增长
  특정 기업의 revenue가 아니라 TAM이... 매년 +100~300%, 10년 이상.
  tags: 好数字·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=+100~300% · date=>10년
• <a id="atom-8f8f2bed5efb70b2"></a>🟥 2026-05-13 X·@zerohedge · 特征 · 资本开支/数据中心算力
  $1 trillion in capex is definitively secular
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
  value: qty=$1 trillion
• <a id="atom-474390208e293b97"></a>🟥 2026-04-29 X·@munster_gene · CY26 平均增速预期 · 资本开支
  we should see the CY26 average growth inch up tonight from 64% to just below 70%
  tags: 好数字·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=64% to just below 70% · date=CY26
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-aca3307a7b298e06"></a>🟥 2026-04-27 X·@zerohedge [老化中] · 是驱动股票的唯一因素 · 资本开支/仓位情绪
  Equities are being driven by one thing…AI spend.
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-cf1f45823305966e"></a>🟥 2026-06-27 X·@Techmeme · Fear of missing out · 仓位情绪
  The rapid pace of AI progress has created a pervasive fear of missing out across Silicon Valley, fueling anxiety among founders, executives, employees, and VCs
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-34fdea0f21bdc31b"></a>🟥 2026-06-08 X·@AIStockSavvy · 投资者关注焦点 · 资本开支/数据中心算力
  AI spending remains the focal point for investors
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
  value: direction=remains focal point
• <a id="atom-0a59f92a734f5b6f"></a>🟥 2026-06-09 X·@Alisvolatprop12 · 연간 지출 규모 전망 · 资本开支/地缘政治
  여기에 미중 경쟁 + 글로벌 각 국가들의 AI각성(한국이 가장 먼저 알아챘고, 프랑스, 영국 등도 합류 중)이 있으면 젠슨이 말한 연간 0.6-0.7T을 넘어 1T도 무난할 거라 생각.
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=$1T · date=연간
• <a id="atom-46ec0e3ce452a931"></a>🟥 2026-05-28 X·@_ueaj · ARR forecast · 营收/资本开支_
  20 trillion to ARR
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=20 trillion · date=unspecified
• <a id="atom-b2f61fc0c21433d7"></a>🟥 2026-05-19 X·@scaling01 ⭐ · intelligence cost trend · 价格动态/技术路线
  intelligence too cheap to meter
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-014b307674daa8c4"></a>🟥 2026-04-28 X·@zephyr_z9 ⭐ · 2027-28周期峰值规模 · 资本开支/数据中心算力
  the peak will be much bigger this time (2027-28)
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: date=2027-28 · direction=much bigger
• <a id="atom-019772cad52309cb"></a>🟥 2026-04-27 X·@DrNHJ ⭐ · 价格强势持续性判断 · 资本开支/订单需求
  AI 투자가 최고 수준으로 유지되는 한 가격 강세가 지속될 것으로 예상
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: date=NA
• <a id="atom-1ac9c4681ecf4bd1"></a>🟥 2026-05-19 X·@DrNHJ · $90 trillion physical AI industry market expected · TAM
  인류 역사상 최초로 90조 달러 규모의 물리적 AI 산업 시장이 열릴 것으로 기대됩니다
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=$90T · date=future
• <a id="atom-7ea53d39de17771e"></a>🟥 2026-05-08 X·@trendforce [老化中] · 驱动ABF基板需求趋势 · 订单需求/数据中心算力
  AI-driven packaging demand continues to rise
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-b780417d1f0d11ee"></a>🟥 2026-07-01 X·@teortaxesTex · 12个月后资本开支预测 · 资本开支/数据中心算力
  12 months later, the AI takeoff will get so hot the capex plans will explode, they'll be desperate to buy hundreds of billions more
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=hundreds of billions · date=12 months later
• <a id="atom-f7764e0ba4af3feb"></a>🟥 2026-06-26 X·@nik_algo · 建议获取1 exaflop算力 · 数据中心算力/资本开支
  do whatever you have to do to acquire an exaflop of compute
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=1 exaflop
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-4e8221d2c34a9200"></a>🟥 2026-06-16 X·@HyperTechInvest · collapse likelihood · 资本开支
  this is just no way to fix this without AI capex collapsing fast and that is not happening
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: direction=low
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-38d2d3aef6055d70"></a>🟥 2026-06-15 X·@Alisvolatprop12 · 约束条件 · 资本开支/叙事
  빅테크의 현금 흐름만으로 ai capex를 한정짓는 게 얼마나 허망한 일인지
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: direction=非仅现金
• <a id="atom-e25afa554b851773"></a>🟥 2026-06-09 X·@BenBajarin · 算力需求持续增长 · 数据中心算力/订单需求
  compute demand compounds rather than plateaus
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-68629665e10c5fb4"></a>🟥 2026-06-05 X·@pstAsiatech · 需要物料列表 · 供给产能/技术路线
  AI Boom requires not just GPUs, but also memory chips, optical fiber, transceivers, MLCCs, PCBs, copper/tin, super capacitors, cooling material, electronic grade specialized chemicals, OCS, MEM chips, power chips, glass substrate & advanced packaging.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-0edf3238515734fa"></a>🟥 2026-05-26 X·@JerryCap · 不会大幅下滑 · 资本开支
  I can't really see a situation where AI spending rolls over hard
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: direction=up
• <a id="atom-254761c1ae8c5474"></a>🟥 2026-05-16 X·@gordocap18 · is already proving to have ROI in digital ad targeting · 资本开支/定价权
  I'd argue AI Capex is already proving to have ROI in digital ad targeting.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-d9f8972b8d736d8a"></a>🟥 2026-05-11 X·@Nice_Stock_ [老化中] · 推理与token生产优化重要性提升 · 技术路线/数据中心算力
  학습보다는 추론 그리고 토큰 생산 최적화가 중요해지는 시대👍
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-ecc885a7f2b57393"></a>🟥 2026-05-07 X·@jrichlive [老化中] · inflection point narrative · 资本开支/技术路线
  1H26 an incredible inflection point for AI. Rewarding CAPEX investment, and still early days...
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: direction=positive
  [图: 高盛研究报告中关于智能体AI驱动代币（Token）需求增长及经济学转正预测的折线面积图 — 2030年Token消费量增幅: >24X; 代币经济学转正时间: 1H26; 2030年4月预测月Token处理量: 120,000,000,000,000,000]
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-2d1c249dc0219145"></a>🟥 2026-04-29 X·@PatrickMoorhead [老旧] · 需要被重申 · 资本开支
  The AI trade does not need perfect earnings tonight. It needs three things: capex reaffirmed, cloud growth accelerating or holding high, and management teams giving credible evidence that AI demand is supply-constrained rather than hype-constrained. If we get that, the AI infrastructure trade has legs.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-0b4af009372e47fb"></a>🟥 2026-04-25 X·@zerohedge [老化中] · 市场投票方向 · 资本开支
  Forget The Headline Roulette, Goldman Partner Says Markets Are Voting For AI Infrastructure 2.0
  tags: 好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-e334eecb2b622002"></a>🟥 2026-06-22 X·@zephyr_z9 · transformation timeline · 技术路线/路线图
  This transformation will happen within 5 years
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  value: date=5 years from 2026-06-22

🟥 空头 takes (bearish) (30)

• <a id="atom-c578116e0ae87c8d"></a>🟥 2026-06-02 X·@zerohedge · cost-savings · 资本开支/成本效益
  "The Value Didn't Arrive": Bain Finds Cost-Savings From AI Are Falling Far Short Of Projections
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
• <a id="atom-e1d3c59e548340a7"></a>🟥 2026-06-25 X·@rev_cap · 年度资本支出承诺 · 资本开支/订单需求
  $1.5 trillion in capex committed per year to a labor replacement technology that hasn't replaced one job
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=$1.5 trillion · date=per year
• <a id="atom-0b8d2c5fe3edccdf"></a>🟥 2026-06-20 X·@Terence27420545 · break-even revenue threshold · 资本开支/营收预测
  If revenue doesn't match that scale (he uses $800B–$1T as the break-even threshold for such bets), the company is toast — no hedges, debt restructuring, or magic can save it if growth slips even by a year or slows to "only" 5x.
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=$800B-$1T · date=2027+
• <a id="atom-97cc81b00be33b84"></a>🟥 2026-04-30 X·@zerohedge ⭐ · 支出水平可能遇到实际约束 · 资本开支/盈利能力
  this level of spend with still limited visible economic output is eventually going to run into real constraints (mainly cost)
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-2c5193484038c394"></a>🟥 2026-06-19 X·@rohanpaul_ai · funded with debt · 资本开支/去杠杆风险
  a big chunk of it is funded with debt
  tags: 好观点·好信源 · → daily
  value: date=2026
• <a id="atom-af95b933d330dca4"></a>🟥 2026-06-16 X·@hypersoren · 智能消费上限 · 订单需求/技术路线
  every good has an upper bound of intelligence consumption—your lawnmower doesn’t need gpt-14
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-2288c38930b75b1c"></a>🟥 2026-06-09 X·@BenBajarin · 硬件更换周期拉长 · 资本开支/业绩指引
  the refresh stretches, and a three-to-four-year replacement cycle becomes hard to defend because each year's improvement no longer earns the hardware bill
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-9931fb02faef0284"></a>🟥 2026-05-29 X·@MadisonMills22 · 支出趋势 · 资本开支/业绩指引
  Multiple executives tell me they’re looking to decrease their AI expenses
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: direction=decrease
• <a id="atom-363cf1cefcc68530"></a>🟥 2026-05-21 X·@wzenus · 后训练预算现状 · 资本开支
  most of the time people are still under budget, and recently more so in post-training like RL
  tags: 好思考·好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-a8bb973fd5e8e092"></a>🟥 2026-05-16 X·@HyperTechInvest · 供应状况 · 供给产能/资本开支
  Memory and power shortages will worsen before they get better
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: qty=supply cannot catch up with demand · date=2026-05-16
• <a id="atom-e4796ab91e4ddaf3"></a>🟥 2026-06-29 X·@zerohedge · may not accelerate but pause and optimize · 资本开支
  the first instinct may not be to accelerate capex… it may be to pause and optimize
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-b2bda2781e1f3d03"></a>🟥 2026-06-25 X·@KobeissiLetter · 通胀传导 · 通胀/资本开支
  AI-flation has arrived
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-afe35260e4cfb19d"></a>🟥 2026-05-07 X·@zerohedge [老化中] · self-feeding rally risk · 仓位情绪/资本开支
  Self-Feeding AI Rally Risks Becoming Its Own Enemy
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-3809c78406242c6a"></a>🟥 2026-06-20 X·@Terence27420545 · future spend committed by decisions · 资本开支/风险
  Decisions you make today commit you to massive spends (hundreds of billions to $1T+) that come online in 2027+.
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=hundreds of billions to $1T+ · date=2027+
• <a id="atom-65778364e62dfdd1"></a>🟥 2026-05-27 X·@orrdavid · compute available will double every couple years · 供给产能
  the amount of compute available will double because the hardware is getting so much more powerful. And then in another couple of years it will double again.
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
• <a id="atom-7be4dfc4d3882754"></a>🟥 2026-06-28 X·@TomSuchorski · ROI · 资本开支/盈利能力
  If the ROI is this bad
  tags: 好观点·好问题 · → daily
  value: direction=bad
• <a id="atom-bb33b72d58b299a2"></a>🟥 2026-06-26 X·@zerohedge · displaced Fed as source of global credit impulse · 资本开支
  AI has displaced Fed as source of global credit impulse
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-a4776b51ecb41656"></a>🟥 2026-06-17 X·@zerohedge · 债务融资成本上升 · 资本开支/宏观利率
  All that debt-funded capex about to get more expensive
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-187dcc65f7e986b4"></a>🟥 2026-06-16 X·@zerohedge · $5 trillion 资本开支 IRR 可能需重算 · 资本开支/数据中心算力
  Someone did the math. May want to rerun the IRR on that $5 trillion in capex stat...
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=$5T
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-86402f53ef354aea"></a>🟥 2026-06-13 X·@zerohedge · capex 规模 · 资本开支
  Surely the IRR calc on $1.4 trillion in capex has a "govt shutdown switch" option included
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=$1.4 trillion
• <a id="atom-56cc96597f33adf2"></a>🟥 2026-06-11 X·@zerohedge · 数据中心取消 · 资本开支/数据中心算力
  First LLM price cuts, now data center cancelations
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-07a0e94ad3a4a44a"></a>🟥 2026-06-03 X·@zerohedge · Dalio 警告 AI 泡沫将破灭类似互联网泡沫 · 泡沫风险/技术周期
  Dalio warns AI Bubble Will Burst Like Dot-Com, But Tech Will Endure
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-914b844ab6330546"></a>🟥 2026-05-19 X·@zerohedge · monetization doubts returning · 数据中心算力
  Maybe there is an element of the returning doubts over the monetization of AI
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-e4fbf5204438f232"></a>🟥 2026-04-03 群 [老旧] · 面临实际支出风险 · AI资本开支/私人信贷/支出风险
  超大厂通过 SPV 融资，私人信贷锁定可能导致实际 capex 不及预期
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  🧠 观:超大厂通过 SPV 融资 → 推:私人信贷锁定可能导致实际 capex 不及预期
• <a id="atom-b2910def2bd9e6d0"></a>🟥 2026-06-27 X·@labubu_trader · ROI concerns persist · 资本开支/竞争格局
  AI capex ROI concerns. This topic will hang like a sword of Damocles
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-a3e37971465aea29"></a>🟥 2026-06-04 X·@yicaichina · boom tests limits of green power · 数据中心算力/地缘政治
  China's AI Computing Boom Tests the Limits of Green Power, Experts Say
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-a7206030ce852615"></a>🟥 2026-06-02 X·@Alisvolatprop12 · 资金来源 · 盈利能力/资本开支
  AI Capex, 삼성전자와 하이닉스, 마이크론등의 영업이익은 누구 주머니에서 나오는 가? 하면 결국 AI 모델을 이용하는 참여자들 특히 기존에 엄청난 순이익을 자랑하던 SW 기업들을 쥐어짜서 나오는 것일 가능성이 높지 않을까하는 생각.
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  value: direction=from
• <a id="atom-d769b80b7df86c52"></a>🟥 2026-05-27 X·@orrdavid · demand for compute drops after AI efficiency improves · 订单需求
  Once set up, demand for compute drops.
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-a6646ba27ef9ff1a"></a>🟥 2026-05-25 X·@ChinaMacroFacts · 价格冲击 · 资本开支
  如果重视ai在上游带来的巨大价格冲击，那就应该担心ai capex挤出和ai渗透率提升对就业的巨大冲击
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-4ebad9c56f518746"></a>🟥 2026-05-25 X·@ChinaMacroFacts · 总需求崩塌风险 · 资本开支
  如果重视ai泡沫的破灭风险，那应该担心的是目前宏观中唯一大幅扩张的领域带来的总需求崩塌
  tags: 好思考 · → daily

🟥 中性 takes (neutral) (20)

• <a id="atom-6ebbcab809c62d3c"></a>🟥 2026-06-16 X·@zerohedge · funding commitments · 资本开支/数据中心算力
  no sweat, just $1.4 trillion in funding commitments that keep the entire AI circle jerk oscillating
  tags: 好数字·好观点 · → daily
  value: qty=$1.4 trillion
• <a id="atom-7565b3eaee4f784d"></a>🟥 2026-06-11 X·@FengXiong79932 · 见顶年份 · 资本开支
  是不是在price in 2028 capex 见顶。
  tags: 好数字·好思考 · → daily
  value: date=2028
• <a id="atom-85e34883b11adb09"></a>🟥 2026-06-01 X·@dee_bosa · spend vs outcomes rationalization timeframe · 资本开支/业绩匹配
  In another year or two from now, there will be a much better rationalization of spend vs outcomes.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
  value: date=2028
• <a id="atom-4e5a1163b42346f8"></a>🟥 2026-05-03 X·@NuttyCLD [老化中] · AI 电力基础设施市场正在分裂为多个战场 · 数据中心算力/资本开支
  AI power infrastructure is not becoming one single market, but is instead splitting into separate battlegrounds across standards, cooling, design workflow, and time-to-power.
  tags: 好观点·好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-c10d983ec8111908"></a>🟥 2026-06-26 X·@Alisvolatprop12 · 价格变化幅度 · 价格动态
  적어도 지금 시점에서 단언할 수 있는 건, 공급이 10배 늘고, 가격이 절반으로 떨어지겠지만, 수요는 1000배 이상 늘 것이라는 겁니다.
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=절반 · direction=下降
• <a id="atom-4d96df0bbf52c965"></a>🟥 2026-06-08 X·@azeem · capex spending to support AI software · 资本开支
  This chart suggests we are spending $2.7 trillion in capex to support AI software. (assuming just US GDP).
  tags: 好数字 · → daily
  value: qty=$2.7 trillion
• <a id="atom-9df56445f69d364a"></a>🟥 2026-07-02 X·@zerohedge · 资金来源 · 资本开支
  CapEx is ultimately funded by both governments (in exchange for stake/warrants)
  tags: 好观点 · → daily
• <a id="atom-5464b6040495a4b6"></a>🟥 2026-07-02 X·@ByrneHobart · 与旧能力比较的认知偏差 · 资本开支
  The chicken little error is to compare current capex to older capabilities
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-a99ef70f211a8644"></a>🟥 2026-06-27 X·@AlphaExponent · depreciation 受 energy efficiency 变化率和 energy cost 占比影响 · 资本开支/盈利能力
  depreciation 受 rate of change of energy efficiency (flops per watt) 和 energy cost as % of sales 影响
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-2200d01d1606f39d"></a>🟥 2026-06-25 X·@teortaxesTex · EU upstream leverage position vs China REE threats · 地缘政治/供应链
  China gets concessions with REE threats, because they can credibly issue them and the US is not confident to call the bluff. If the EU could get its act together like this, it could also use upstream leverage.
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-2c2c9ee0ee0abc8b"></a>🟥 2026-06-24 X·@aphysicist · 应用边界 · 技术路线
  they can apply ai to low hanging fruit but when it comes time to operate machinery and transform design or quoting they run into frustrating walls that can arguably only be solved by having the time, talent, and capital to commit to this boundary
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-81911c4bbc39aeb7"></a>🟥 2026-06-12 X·@Spyglass_Feed · 向agentic和高成本迁移 · 技术路线
  AI shifts agentic and more expensive
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-49e9f76bf84a4b41"></a>🟥 2026-06-12 X·@teortaxesTex · CapEx spending trend · 资本开支/竞争格局
  On the other hand, we get this
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-40d19937080e81d5"></a>🟥 2026-05-29 X·@mm85 · China conference slide 信息密度 · 技术路线_
  Just your average China conference slide … a Bombardement of information and deep technical stuff infused into the audience
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-2c686a9f4ba55ad9"></a>🟥 2026-05-28 X·@HyperTechInvest · 受美联储加息直接威胁 · 资本开支
  Unless that happens (which would directly affect capex plans) every dip is a buying opportunity
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-fda58793f8edf0cb"></a>🟥 2026-05-23 X·@zerohedge · 5 年 5 万亿 capex 是否考虑中国 · 资本开支/地缘政治
  Has the “$5 trillion capex in 5 years” considered China
  tags: 好问题 · → daily
• <a id="atom-8e03b5fa17440f73"></a>🟥 2026-05-15 X·@jeffcafe_ · intentional slow-walking to avoid capex until economic case validated · 资本开支
  there’s some intentional slow-walking going on to avoid capex until the economic case for LLMs is validated (or not) by 2026-2027
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  value: date=2026-2027
• <a id="atom-c302ec655892aaaa"></a>🟥 2026-05-09 X·@Alisvolatprop12 · 둔화 시그널 확인 필요 조건 · 资本开支
  단, 이 시나리오가 성립하려면 “CAPEX가 둔화”한다는 시그널이 나와야합니다.
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
• <a id="atom-48cbec8268f86cf9"></a>🟥 2026-05-06 X·@VistaSharesX [老化中] · AI基础设施存在两类建设 · 资本开支/布局分类
  There are two major AI infrastructure buildouts.
  tags: 好思考 · → daily
  📷 原图
• <a id="atom-6fdec3560c8bb3e0"></a>🟥 2026-06-25 X·@matt_slotnick · 单位经济活动的底层单元是推理量 · 技术路线
  the underlying unit of economic activity that flows is measured in inference
  tags: 好观点 · → daily

🟦 新闻流 (squawk · 15)

⏱ 时间轴 (近 20)

• 🟥 2026-07-03 · narrative · water footprint relative to hamburger · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-03 · fact · 需求状态 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-03 · narrative · 必须继续上修 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-02 · narrative · 资金来源 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-02 · narrative · 大型云厂商承受成本压力 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-02 · narrative · 与旧能力比较的认知偏差 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-01 · narrative · 资本吸引 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-01 · forecast · 全球 AI 算力规模预测 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-07-01 · fact · 推动内存短缺导致组件成本上升 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-07-01 · forecast · 12个月后资本开支预测 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-06-29 · narrative · FUD围绕应用计算与企业专用模型及微软叙事 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-06-29 · forecast · 增长率假设 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-06-29 · narrative · 营收超过折旧费用 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-06-29 · narrative · arms race that rewards patient and loss-tolerant capital · → daily
• 🟥 2026-06-29 · forecast · may not accelerate but pause and optimize · → daily
• 🟥 2026-06-28 · position · ROI · → daily
• 🟥 2026-06-28 · narrative · 2008 comparison · → daily
• 🟥 2026-06-27 · narrative · ROI 挑战 · → daily
• 🟦 2026-06-27 · narrative · capex 规模 · → daily
• 🟥 2026-06-27 · narrative · depreciation 受 energy efficiency 变化率和 energy cost 占比影响 · → daily

← 实体目录 · 系统日志